The COVID-2019 Thread

[Shutree]

Perhaps it's that, because everyone in the UK has access to free healthcare and thus we have more old people per capita than the US?

Oh look, it is.

The life expentecy in UK is only very marginally greater than it is in the US. When I have visited the US, wherever I have been, I have always been struck by the number of obese people waddling around clutching bags of donuts or whatever imitation food it is they thrive on. Plenty of fat people in the UK too. Probably the comparative statistics are out there, my own experience just from walking around suggests that the US probably wins on 'pre-existing conditions' like obesity.

[HuangLao]

.....and to be expected - the great vaccine chase and clusterfuck has become political, petty, culturally competitive.

Full of usual fancy from all circles.

[panama hat]

Must give the UK some credit now with vaccinating the population . . . fairly well nothing else . . . but they have shown the rest of us what can be done. I hope it doesn't turn out to be a useless cause if the vaccines don't do as they're supposed to in the long run.

[lom]

Perhaps it's that, because everyone in the UK has access to free healthcare and thus we have more old people per capita than the US?

Oh look, it is.

It couldn't be mishandling of the pandemic? The long time of doing nothing..

[HuangLao]

It couldn't be mishandling of the pandemic? The long time of doing nothing..

Both mismanaged the whole affair terribly bad - and still are.
Part infrastructural inadequacies, but largely societal ignorance.

[harrybarracuda]

It couldn't be mishandling of the pandemic? The long time of doing nothing..

Well the demographics of virus fatalities lean heavily against the elderly, and they both kinda fucked up on old peoples' homes and shit.

But we have more elderly people per capita because millions of Americans can't afford health care and die before their time as a result.

[harrybarracuda]

The life expentecy in UK is only very marginally greater than it is in the US.

It's not marginally greater it's statistically significantly greater for the reasons I've already given.

We have plenty of fat fuckers too but, again, FREE HEALTH CARE FOR ALL.

[harrybarracuda]

The SARS-CoV-2 variant identified in the UK, dubbed B.1.1.7, is now spreading in the US, the Washington Post reports. It adds that this variant is suspected to be more easily transmitted than the original pandemic strain and could soon become the dominant strain circulating in the US.

A Scripps Research Institute-led team examined the prevalence of the strain in the US based on both the slightly different pattern of PCR testing results it gives and follow-up sequencing of those samples. In a preprint posted to MedRxiv, they report that the strain was introduced into the US numerous times since the end of November 2020 and that, given that many initial B.1.1.7 US cases were not linked to international travel, there appears to be community transmission of the strain.
They further report that while this strain is currently at a low frequency in the US, it appears to be doubling every week and a half, the Post notes.
"There could indeed be a very serious situation developing in a matter of months or weeks," Nicholas Davies, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was not involved in the study, tells the New York Times. "These may be early signals warranting urgent investigation by public health authorities."

https://www.genomeweb.com/scan/and-n...s#.YCIJ33kRXIU

This variant spreads quicker, but if you add the jaapie mutations to it as well it becomes very serious.

Hence all the sudden lockdowns and shit you are seeing internationally.

[lom]

This variant spreads quicker, but if you add the jaapie mutations to it as well it becomes very serious.

especially if you have been vaccinated with the AZ vaccine or your country heavily depends on that vaccine.
They've gone Microsoft and promises an update later this year..

[harrybarracuda]

especially if you have been vaccinated with the AZ vaccine or your country heavily depends on that vaccine.
They've gone Microsoft and promises an update later this year..

Silly really. If they have the vaccines they should use them. It will provide some protection and it will reduce the effects if you do get vaccinated.

Better than nothing, and certainly better than throwing them away.

[lom]

It will provide some protection and it will reduce the effects if you do get vaccinated.

It's the 3G vaccine.
63% efficient, clinical test done on the age group 18-55, efficiency result for older has only been extrapolated.
Sweden, Finland, Germany will not give it to the over 65, South Africa doesn't want it at all since it is only 10% efficient on the SA strain.
Better than nothing but far from good enough..

[cyrille]

A mutation of the 'Kent variant' of COVID has been discovered in Manchester.

Will it ever end?

Mutation of Kent Covid variant discovered in Manchester | UK news | The Guardian

[HuangLao]

As that's what viruses do - by their very nature - mutate into stronger, more efficient strains.

Survival mechanism.

[cyrille]

Yeah, thanks for the info jeff.

[harrybarracuda]

South Africa doesn't want it at all since it is only 10% efficient on the SA strain.

I'm not quite sure what this means. Perhaps you can provide a link.

Even if you are confusing "efficacy" with "efficiency" I've still never seen numbers that low.

[lom]

Perhaps you can provide a link.

Rollout of AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Halted in South Africa After Study - WSJ

"Of the 39 volunteers in the AstraZeneca trial that were found to be infected with the new South African variant, 19 had received the vaccine, while 20 had received a placebo, said Shabir Madhi, the trial’s principal investigator and dean of the medical school at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. Those numbers would imply an efficacy rate of around 10% at protecting against mild and moderate Covid-19 from the new variant, said Dr. Madhi, although he added that the data were too limited to be statistically significant."

The whole article is worth reading.

[harrybarracuda]

Rollout of AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Halted in South Africa After Study - WSJ

"Of the 39 volunteers in the AstraZeneca trial that were found to be infected with the new South African variant, 19 had received the vaccine, while 20 had received a placebo, said Shabir Madhi, the trial’s principal investigator and dean of the medical school at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. Those numbers would imply an efficacy rate of around 10% at protecting against mild and moderate Covid-19 from the new variant, said Dr. Madhi, although he added that the data were too limited to be statistically significant."

The whole article is worth reading.

Well it's not, because I've already read it and it specifically says " the data were too limited to be statistically significant."

To put it in perspective and add a bit more science, you should read the link below. If these vaccines are thrown away they will be missing a valuable opportunity, especially as "None of the subjects in either arm of the study developed severe disease or required hospitalization".

Yet the South African trial of the vaccine, conducted in about 2000 people, found such a low efficacy against mild and moderate disease, under 25%, that it would not meet minimal international standards for emergency use. But scientists are hopeful it might still prevent severe disease and death—arguably the most important job for any COVID-19 vaccine. That was impossible to tell from this placebo-controlled trial because it was small and recruited relatively healthy, young people—their average age was only 31. None of the subjects in either arm of the study developed severe disease or required hospitalization.

<snip>

COVID-19 vaccines made by Johnson & Johnson (J&J) and Novavax have also been shown to offer weaker protection against B.1.351 (also known as 501.V2), the SARS-CoV-2 variant that now causes the vast majority of all infections in South Africa, than against older variants. The vaccines’ efficacy against mild disease in South Africa was 57% for J&J and 49% for Novavax—lower than in any other country they were tested.
But the J&J vaccine, which was put to the test in the largest of the studies, convincingly protected against severe disease and death, even against the B.1.351 variant, and Madhi remains “somewhat optimistic” that the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine will, too; the results are not “all doom and gloom,” he said.

South Africa suspends use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine after it fails to clearly stop virus variant | Science | AAAS

[lom]

If these vaccines are thrown away they will be missing a valuable opportunity, especially as "None of the subjects in either arm of the study developed severe disease or required hospitalization".

I've never mentioned throwaway but I for one will wait for vaccine from Moderna or Phizer, it's not that I'm in a hurry to get a shot.
It would also not surprise me if the Chinese vaccine will give better result than AstraZeneca's disappointing figures.

[Troy]

As that's what viruses do - by their very nature - mutate into stronger, more efficient strains.

Stronger for the virus = thriving on the host without killing. So one would expect more infectious, less dangerous strains would thrive better.

[harrybarracuda]

I've never mentioned throwaway but I for one will wait for vaccine from Moderna or Phizer, it's not that I'm in a hurry to get a shot.
It would also not surprise me if the Chinese vaccine will give better result than AstraZeneca's disappointing figures.

If it would they would be screaming their data from the rooftops right now frankly.

Stronger for the virus = thriving on the host without killing. So one would expect more infectious, less dangerous strains would thrive better.

Perhaps Jeff would understand better: "Kill the Host - Kill the virus".

[HuangLao]

I've never mentioned throwaway but I for one will wait for vaccine from Moderna or Phizer, it's not that I'm in a hurry to get a shot.
It would also not surprise me if the Chinese vaccine will give better result than AstraZeneca's disappointing figures.

Shouldn't surprise.
The Chinese vaccines [2-3] are already lining up in comparison, in quality and effectiveness, to be best that the West can produce.

...and far above the greatest distributor of [any] vaccines worldwide - so far.
All the while, the much beloved West are squabbling, struggling and entrenched in petty political power plays.

[Joe 90]

2000 vaccines administered at our local community centre today, a new record.

[HuangLao]

2000 vaccines administered at our local community centre today, a new record.

Good to see that the jabs are finding their way in increasing numbers.

[Joe 90]

^It's a marathon and a sprint, these jabs are gonna be a yearly event like the seasonal flu jab.
Gonna have to get used to it.

Todays grim news from the UK...


Travellers having to stay in quarantine hotels in England will be charged £1,750 for their stay, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has announced.


The measures, which come into force on Monday, apply to UK and Irish residents returning from 33 red list countries.


Those who fail to quarantine in a government-sanctioned hotel for 10 days face fines of up to £10,000.


Meanwhile, all travellers arriving into Scotland from abroad by air will have to go into quarantine hotels.


People travelling from red list countries to Wales and Northern Ireland will be required to book and pay for quarantine in England, as neither destination currently has any direct international flights.

• Who has to self-isolate and for how long?
• The new test and quarantine rules for travellers
• Why Australia's quarantine system has seen breaches

Travellers arriving into England who lie on their passenger locator forms about visiting a red list country face a fine of £10,000 or up to 10 years in jail.


It comes as the UK reported another 12,364 confirmed cases of coronavirus and a further 1,052 deaths within 28 days of a positive test - bringing that total to 113,850. More than 12.6 million people have received a first dose of the vaccine.


Delivering a statement in the Commons, Mr Hancock said 16 hotels have been contracted for the programme, with 4,600 rooms secured.


The health secretary also confirmed a new "enhanced testing" regime for all travellers arriving into the UK would begin on Monday, with two tests required during the quarantine process.


They will be required to get a test on days two and eight of their 10-day quarantine period, whether they are isolating at home or in a hotel. The tests, conducted by NHS Test and Trace, will cost travellers £210.


"People who flout these rules are putting us all at risk," the health secretary told MPs.


Airlines and travel companies will be legally required to make sure travellers have signed up for the new measures before they depart, with fines for companies and passengers if they fail to comply, he said.


The penalties include a £1,000 fine for travellers who fail to take mandatory tests and a £2,000 fine for failing to take the second mandatory test - along with a 14-day extension to quarantine.


Failing to quarantine in a designated hotel carries a fine of between £5,000 and £10,000.


Asked when the travel rules would be relaxed, Mr Hancock said: "We want to exit from this into a system of safe international travel as soon as practicable and as soon as is safe."




Passengers required to stay in a quarantine hotel will need to reserve a room online in advance using a booking system that opens on Thursday.


The £1,750 fee for an individual includes the hotel, the cost of transport and testing. The additional rate for one extra adult or a child aged over 12 is £650, and for a child aged five to 12 it is £325.


These travellers will only be allowed to enter the UK through a "small number of ports that currently account for the vast majority of passenger arrivals", Mr Hancock added.


Responding to Mr Hancock's statement, Labour's shadow health secretary said the public wanted the government to "go further" on border quarantine measures.


Jonathan Ashworth told the Commons: "Our first line of defence is surely to do everything we can to stop (new variants) arising in the first place. That means securing our borders to isolate new variants as they come in.


"He's announced a detailed package today but he hasn't announced comprehensive quarantine controls at the borders."


Mr Hancock later said the red list was kept "under review".


Announcing Scotland's tougher measures, which apply to arrivals from all countries, Scottish Transport Secretary Michael Matheson said the "targeted, reactive approach" of the UK government was "no longer sufficient" to deal with the threat from coronavirus.





media captionThe BBC's Laura Foster explains how to fly safely during a global pandemic
Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford said he also wanted to see "a stronger set of defences at our borders" and said the UK government's measures were "the bare minimum of what needs to be done".


Enforcement fines and prison sentences over quarantine breaches are still "under review" in Wales. A Welsh government spokesperson also said the country was working to determine when it will need its own quarantine hotels, if the red list expands or if international flights resume.


Although the 4,600 rooms secured so far in England would only allow for around one Boeing 747's worth of passengers per day, Kate Nicholls, chief executive of UK Hospitality, said discussions were under way to add more capacity.


She told BBC Radio 4's World at One that separate security teams contracted by the government would be responsible for enforcing the quarantine, while hotel staff focused on giving people the "best possible experience in what are very difficult circumstances".


The £1,750 fee includes three meals, tea, coffee and water, Ms Nicholls said, but other items will be available at an extra cost through room service.




Travellers arriving in the UK - whether by boat, train or plane - are already required to show proof of a negative Covid-19 test to be allowed entry.


This test must be taken in the 72 hours before travelling, and anyone arriving without one faces a fine of up to £500, with Border Force officials carrying out spot checks.


They must also provide contact details and their UK address. They can then travel - by public transport if necessary - to the place where they plan to self-isolate.


All travellers - including British nationals - must self-isolate for 10 days when they get to the UK.


The "test to release scheme" - where travellers from non-red list countries can leave home isolation after a negative test on day five - will remain under the new testing rules.


Passengers will be expected to use the gold-standard and more expensive PCR tests.

[panama hat]

Two things I find unbelievable . . . that the UK is only now looking at travellers moving to government managed quarantine . . . and that over 110.000 Brits have died, partly because of incredible bungling by the politicians - in this case you have to lay the blame at Boris' feet . . . irrespective of one's leanings. The man was a fool for his actions.


Over 110.000 dead . . . amazing