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  1. #1
    Isle of discombobulation Joe 90's Avatar
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    The rise of Reform.

    The bookies don't generally get it wrong!

    The rise of Reform.-screenshot_20250428_231828_chrome-jpg
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails The rise of Reform.-screenshot_20250428_231828_chrome-jpg  

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat david44's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe 90 View Post
    The bookies don't generally get it wrong!
    I fear you are labouring under Miss Apprehension

    A bookmaker has no stake/dog in the contestor other than their overround. A genteleman's wager between individuals can remove this so if you and I bet on a coin toss it would be 50-50.
    Oddly the people seen at the bookies are seldom winners more often losers , same pools, lotto, the only area where skill possible are card couting opps which had be barred from playing at Burswood , cameras and the net have made such tactics almost impossible on a large scale unlike 1980-90s

    The odds offered merely reflect a balance of those who jave wagered to mitigaate risk and or lay off any large individual stakes. I am a retired gambler .
    Enjoy a flutter on what you can afford to lose.

    The UK election is like having accumulator on 650 courses ,while FPTP is tempered with local issues and personalities!

    Looks like it'll be warmer Wednesday in mercia tha here at 25 v 24! For his only fans a print and keep souvenir leer jet.

    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails The rise of Reform.-local-elections-2025-8q2a6wh1-jpg  
    Last edited by david44; 29-04-2025 at 05:50 AM.
    Russia went from being 2nd strongest army in the world to being the 2nd strongest in Ukraine

  3. #3
    hangin' around cyrille's Avatar
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    Tories so desperate they will vote for anyone who blames everything on immigrants.

  4. #4
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    Tories so desperate they will vote for anyone who blames everything on immigrants.
    i.e. "Football Lads Alliance" types that don't think the tories are right wing enough.

  5. #5
    hangin' around cyrille's Avatar
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    And reform's big idea that the UK should abandon renewable energy and rely on fossil fuels from the nearly exhausted North Sea is almost as ridiculous.

    They really are going for the UK version of Trump voters.

    The dimmest of the dim.

    Which, of course, is where Joe 90 comes in.


  6. #6
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Yes, these chumps will swallow any old jizz GB News feeds them.

  7. #7
    Isle of discombobulation Joe 90's Avatar
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    This what will get them in....


    As Prime Minister, Nigel Farage will ensure the deportation of all illegal immigrants in this country within 5 years.


    -After decades of Tory and Labour rule, this country has failed to enforce its immigration laws and uphold the integrity of its borders. As a result of this open border policy, 1.2 million illegal immigrants now inhabit the UK. This is a national emergency.


    -Reform UK’s policy team has drafted a comprehensive strategy to deport all illegal immigrants currently in the UK within 5 years. The plan is bold but actionable, firm but fair. As Prime Minister, Nigel will ensure our country operates a zero tolerance policy for illegal residence. The full policy document and detailed plan will be published next month.


    -All measures will be legally robust under UK law and administratively feasible. The strategy will employ special legislative provisions to overcome legal barriers, but will do so by explicitly changing the law rather than operating outside it.


    -Key elements include a robust new legal framework. Firstly, we will leave the European Convention on Human Rights and replace it with a British Bill of Rights. Secondly, we have drafted legislation to disapply certain articles of other international treaties which have been used to frustrate attempts to deport those here illegally. Specific clauses will ensure that no asylum or human rights legal claim can delay removals, and that UK courts cannot halt deportations by reference to international treaties that work against the interests of the British people.


    -We will negotiate bilateral agreements to facilitate returns, and we will deliver an enormous scale-up of enforcement capacity.


    -A phased operational rollout will rapidly identify, detain, and remove illegal migrants. Enforcement agencies will be expanded and empowered to conduct nationwide identification and removal operations, leveraging massively increased detention capacity and chartered removal flights on a high frequency schedule.


    -New agreements with origin and third countries will ensure there are destinations for all removed individuals, including those from war-torn states. Appeals and legal challenges will be permitted only after removal.


    -We will lay out a year-by-year timeline with clear targets, ramping up from initial capacity-building in Year 1 to peak removal numbers by Years 3 to 4, and completion by the end of the fifth year.


    -While the cost of this operation will be significant, it represents a massive saving on the status quo of allowing illegal immigrants to stay.


    -Reform’s strategy represents a decisive break from the past half-measures of Tory and Labour governments. We simultaneously draw on international precedents and hard lessons (e.g. Australia’s enforcement-first mode), but also propose new mechanisms adapted to the UK’s specific circumstances.


    -Deportations on this scale have recent precedent: By the end of Barack Obama’s eight years in the office of president he had earned himself the title of “Deporter in Chief” on account of the over 3 million ‘noncitizens’ who were deported between 2009 and 2017. This the greatest number of deportations under any US president, more than all other presidents from 1892 to 2000 combined.


    -With Nigel as our Prime Minister, a Reform government will show unflinching resolve to ensure that those here illegally are deported within 5 years of Reform winning the general election. In doing so, the social contract in British society will be restored. The British taxpayer will save tens of billions of pounds, and our country will once again be governed by the rule of law.
    Shalom

  8. #8
    Thailand Expat armstrong's Avatar
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    1. What a load of bollocks..

    2. Anyone who thinks Farage will make a good PM is a nonce.

  9. #9
    กงเกวียนกำเกวียน HuangLao's Avatar
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    Reform from what?
    Could use a decent revolution, though.

  10. #10
    Member Molle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe 90 View Post
    This what will get them in....
    and no doubt you'll give them support in the election. Like a turkey waiting for and voting for ThanksGiving

    Quote Originally Posted by armstrong View Post
    Anyone who thinks Farage will make a good PM is a nonce.
    Bears repetition

  11. #11
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by armstrong View Post
    2. Anyone who thinks Farage will make a good PM is a nonce.
    I'm not entirely sure that's the right word.

    Retard is probably better.

  12. #12
    hangin' around cyrille's Avatar
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    Well, Chitty claimed to Troy a while back that he was just trolling on this topic.

    So he doesn't have the minerals to actually stand by posts like we see here.

  13. #13
    Thailand Expat david44's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    have the minerals to actually stand by posts like we see here
    jeez this Absinthe seems extra strong this hoppy hour.

    Implementation will require an actively controlled border in Ireland, or between the north and the mainland good luck with that.

    I think sole deterrent would be if they were certain to be parachuted into some less desireable place like the Kola Peninsula or US

  14. #14
    Isle of discombobulation Joe 90's Avatar
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    Lump on!

    The rise of Reform.-screenshot_20250429_152035_chrome-jpg
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails The rise of Reform.-screenshot_20250429_152035_chrome-jpg  

  15. #15
    Thailand Expat david44's Avatar
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    We will believe you when we see the receipt for your wager

  16. #16
    Isle of discombobulation Joe 90's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuangLao View Post
    Could use a decent revolution, though
    Appears to be a lot of talk from certain circles on that very subject.

  17. #17
    Isle of discombobulation Joe 90's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Yes, these chumps will swallow any old jizz GB News feeds them.
    Who else you gonna vote for, Labour and Conservative again if you vote for the same you'll get more of the same and anyone that does that at this stage needs their heads looking at and perhaps in your case Hazza a full frontal lobotomy.
    I predict Reform UK to take massive amounts of the councillors seats and for Nigel Farage to be our next Prime Minister.
    Look at it this way, things can't get any worse can they, I don't see what there is to lose by giving another party a go at sorting this country out and fooking the two party nose trough hypocritical wankers off.

  18. #18
    Isle of discombobulation Joe 90's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Molle View Post
    and no doubt you'll give them support in the election. Like a turkey waiting for and voting for ThanksGiving



    Bears repetition
    That's rich coming from someone who hangs around University's looking for innocent girls.

    In the UK we call it grooming, have you got Pakistani blood in your DNA?


  19. #19
    Thailand Expat david44's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe 90 View Post
    I don't see what there is to lose
    that is how people of good will and the hopeful often feel when seeking improvement. How it pans out is unpredictable.

  20. #20
    Isle of discombobulation Joe 90's Avatar
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    Tories on course to lose 500 seats in election nightmare with Reform storming councils

    The local elections could see Nigel Farage's party gain up to 450 seats


    Tories on course to lose 500 seats in Reform election surge | Politics | News | Express.co.uk

  21. #21
    Isle of discombobulation Joe 90's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    How it pans out is unpredictable.
    Indeedio, who would have though Brexit would have turned into such a shit show..

  22. #22
    Isle of discombobulation Joe 90's Avatar
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    Latest poll..

    The rise of Reform.-fhjjchk-jpg
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  23. #23
    hangin' around cyrille's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe 90 View Post
    who would have though Brexit would have turned into such a shit show..
    Yes, who could have imagined that?



    Quote Originally Posted by Joe 90 View Post
    Latest poll...

  24. #24
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    Labour and the Tories are about to get a kicking from Reform. It’s immigration, stupid

    Thursday’s local elections will send a clear message to the mainstream parties

    The border between the Tories and Reform is now as porous as our own English Channel and the Kent coast which just clocked up the 10,000th illegal small-boat person of 2025 – before the summer rush even gets going.

    That grim milestone – both scary and heartbreaking, honestly, I could weep for our poor country – was reached almost a month ahead of last year as another five inflatable ferries crossed from France on Monday morning, bringing hundreds of undocumented young males from backward, women-hating countries ashore to take advantage of our insanely generous terms and conditions. Instead of declaring a national emergency or temporarily suspending the right of illegal arrivals to apply for asylum, as a wise Poland just did, the Labour Government is surreptitiously conning the public – emptying migrant hotels to give the appearance of doing something.

    All the while, according to a Telegraph report, Serco is busy bribing private landlords to host those same migrants, offering five-year guaranteed rent deals, with the taxpayer picking up the bill, and paying for maintenance, council tax and utilities on top. In other words, Serco is deliberately outbidding our own people by making inflated offers to landlords that ordinary families can’t possibly afford.

    This amoral, anti-British scam is being funded by the British people themselves, a clear breach of the social contract, as well as an affront to decency and fair play. It is part of “Operation Scatter”, a Labour plan outlined by Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, which will see tens of thousands of foreign males put up in social and private housing in scores of locations across the UK. The Home Office must hope that they’re so well dispersed nobody notices. Or, more likely, residents will be too afraid to object in case they’re branded a “far-Right” thug by the Prime Minister, found guilty of inciting racial hatred and fast-tracked to join poor Lucy Connolly in prison.

    It is against this febrile backdrop of out-of-control immigration and kid-gloves treatment of asylum cheats that the local elections, and a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, will take place on Thursday. It is highly relevant because Runcorn has one of the highest number of asylum seekers in the UK. You can imagine how delighted locals are about the threat to community cohesion, and young women and girls, as well as the pressure on their public services.

    If anyone can snatch defeat in an inviolable Labour stronghold, it’s Keir “not for the British” Starmer.

    Not content with alienating his own core voters – taking the winter fuel allowance from pensioners while somehow finding £11 billion for overseas climate aid, decimating manufacturing and hospitality with a reckless pursuit of net zero – in barely 10 months Labour have plunged the entire country into a deep malaise. Wealth creators are fleeing in such alarming numbers the phenomenon now has a name (Wexit) and the polling company Ipsos just reported the worst Economic Optimism Index (EOI) ratings on record. Since 1978, Ipsos has asked the public if they think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months. “April 2025 sees the lowest EOI rating ever, with minus 68,” is the brutal verdict.

    Imagine how much worse things will be for this Government on Friday morning when, at such an early stage in the electoral cycle, they fulfil the forecast of Maurice Glasman, founder of the influential Blue Labour group, who said Labour would “get its head kicked in” by Nigel Farage’s party. (Lord Glasman blamed Labour’s failure to be a pro-worker, patriotic party and for “talking gibberish about diversity”. Quite.)

    Tomorrow’s local elections have been cynically stage-managed (with many boroughs not taking part). So the Conservatives are set up to lose 500 seats (coming off Boris Johnson’s peak performance in 2021). That should distract media attention away from the humbling of Labour and on to the question of whether Kemi Badenoch can survive. Expect much frenzied speculation about a Tory leader who has just hit her stride and has earned more time to drag her party back to Conservative principles.

    The real issues are far more profound and existential. Talking to voters about the first 100 Days of the Trump administration, the veteran American pollster Frank Luntz said: “What we are seeing is a ‘dealignment’ for traditional political, intellectual and economic allegiances built up over decades.” Luntz found “a rejection of the governing institutions and the people who lead them” with the “level of hostility” towards institutions – from banks to courts, the media, the police, healthcare, universities – having “reached breaking point. The very moment that Trump has re-ascended to power is the very moment that our institutions are at their weakest and the public is at its angriest. That is leading to a rejection of the status quo and embrace of anything that says: ‘Change’”.

    That same “dealignment” is happening here in the UK, I think. Arrogant progressives who sneer at Reform supporters as “angry populists” loftily discount the people’s entirely-justified fury at the failure of our governing class to make their country function adequately, to protect its culture, fill its potholes or even to defend its borders. As ordinary families struggle to afford their lives, the Government rubs their noses in it, squandering billions of public money securing rented accommodation for young males guilty of breaking and entering our precious home. Plans announced yesterday, in a tearing hurry before the local elections, to bar foreign nationals convicted of sex offences from claiming asylum, convince no one, Home Secretary. No one wants them here, at liberty to attack our girls, full stop.

    You know, I still hear mainstream media interviewers treat Nigel Farage with barely-concealed disdain (I wince every time, it’s plain rude), whilst affording elaborate courtesy to dolts like Ed Miliband. Viewers and listeners, by contrast, are increasingly minded to give him a respectful hearing. Not necessarily because they like him.

    For Farage has accurately diagnosed for a decade and more the sickness that now ails our country, which we know may prove terminal unless something is done.

    No, Reform may not win Runcorn and Helsby, it’s a big ask, although I’m sure the mayoralties of Lincolnshire and Hull will be theirs, along with hundreds of council seats. Certain Conservative Association chairs will even be voting for them, so desperate are they for change. Few contests have the potential to move the national dial: tomorrow’s will. Both Labour and Tories will get a well-earned kicking. (Starmer will be on borrowed time.) Neither party can take its survival for granted, not any more. The time of the two-horse race is over.

    The people have been ignored for too long, and they want, hell, no, they demand to be heard.

    It’s illegal immigration, stupid.

    .... and there is nothing racist in fighting to stop it!

    the rise of reform is well underway, and if labour want to remain in power they will need to re think their woke diversity rich anti white manifesto.

  25. #25
    Thailand Expat david44's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by taxexile View Post
    poor Lucy Connolly in prison
    Are you in favour of encouraging burning of those you disdain?

    There is a debate to be had about asylum, needs of the economy , returns and costs but encouraging arson and murder is not a rational response.

    The reality is there an underclass who prefer to live on benefit.
    The hospitality, care homes vape and nail bar barber shop fronts seem to be largely newcomers.

    If the indigenous cannot be encouraged to work at least they could reproduce . Like many wealthy welfare states educated young women want careers many with no kids as is their right.

    Howeve the corollary is there will not be enough young to finance the ever increasing number of elderly who in addition to pension transfers cost more in care, NHS and are more likely to vote than the young.

    I have no ideal solution but defending literally inflamatory behaviour surely is not the way forward?

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