Thread: Brexit - It's Still On!

Australia get a huge benefit from USA foreign investment due to the FTA. It's a benefit that people seem to forget.

Originally Posted by Troy

They have clearly shown they aren't blinking and PM May's Government have clearly shown their hand. There will be no significant changes by the EU because they can't do anything more. Why do Brexiteers think more can be done?

Even with the inept May in charge, that was a massive EU turnaround on continuing financial services via London. It might only be for one year, but it was brinkmanship of the highest order, simply to protect EU business. The EU hates spilling gravy from that train. lol
Its also interesting to note your change from mild mannered Clark Kent at the start of this debate, to seeking ass apprentice in your recent efforts. The closer it gets, the more scary it gets for cocky remainers.

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

Why are people hung up over a free trade agreement with the EU? Many FTAs make no economic sense at all. They over promise and under deliver. The problems are more to do with customs inspection than tariffs. The EU has over protected many areas for years and this is unlikely to change and many tariffs will still apply, probably in the farming sector especially which of course will effect UK farmers as well. The EU will be just as anxious as the UK (if not more) to make sure their trade surplus continues. The EU knows that the country in the box seat is the one with the trade deficit as they have far less to lose. Hence why they have done their level best to keep the UK in an agreement that keeps the majority benefit within the EU. This does not mean that it's all sweetness and light for the Brits. They will no doubt take a hit to their GDP which will cause some pain in the short term, as will the EU although the shear size of the EU will disipate some of the shock, with a few countries such as the Irish republic, so dependant on the UK, probably taking the biggest hit. The EU budget of course will take a hit and the deficit will need to be taken up by the net contributers principally Germany, France and Italy and to a degree, the lesser net contributors. The Recipients are unlikely to go unscathed as they will be expected to tighten their belts.
The EU will make the transit of goods as seamless as possible because it is in their own interest to make sure there is as little effect on goods and jobs in the EU as much as possible. Any economic downturn will affect the EU as well as the UK, the shear size of trade between the two makes that a given.
I find it laughable to think that British business has not in the last 2 years checked alternative and probably cheaper products from other countries. Australia and many other countries would by now have already spoken to UK companies about what can be supplied, certainly many farm products, goods and service which in many cases maybe a cheaper alternative to the EU.
Australia, as one of the pioneers of bilateral FTAs has had a lot of experience in negotiating agreements but has yet to see little if any benefit from them. The Aus/USA FTA for example which has now been going for 13 years, has only given a benefit to the USA which had an initial pre FTA trade surplus with Australia turned into a massive surplus after the FTA. They only remove selected trade barriers as can be seen with the USA still having tariffs on many australian farm exports despite their massive trade surplus. (Possibly one reason trump did not put tariffs on Australian steel. He found out who was getting the best deal on that FTA).
The much touted TPP will have little impact on Australia as it already has FTAs with all the major countries in the TPP. FTAs between China, Japan and South Korea the 3 largest Asian economies is projected by 2035 to only increase jobs by 5,400 with an increase in exports of 0.5% but increase imports by 2.5%.
Yes I know this is Australia but the Aus/USA FTA serves as an example of a smaller economy Versus a larger economy and who gets the most benefit.
Both the EU and UK are mature economies and growth within these two economies will be relatively limited as compared to the oportunities in the emerging Asian markets which the EU is already targeting and the UK will follow, once out of the EU.
I am interested in other members views who either agree or disagree hopefully based on some commonsense arguments, other than just the abusive, economically illterate comments that the poisonous little chihuhua in Pattaya is capable of.
The link shows pros and cons of Australian FTAs as an example only.

http://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/...ng%20Paper.pdf

No argument with most of that, except for the senior EU partners making up the financial shortfall. French economy in the toilet as Macron proved recently, (they depend on cap for a huge chunk of their gdp). Merkel has already told the ECB, no more handouts from the one country that has bailed everyone out in the past.
The commission is now seriously concerned about making it all add up in future.

Originally Posted by Mandaloopy

England can't even cope with shitty plastic drone, so I'm not really sure the country is up to a hard Brexit. If it's so grand why are they even having to consider putting the army on standby?

lol, saw that. One small drone and it's chaos

Brits are delusional by nature, they are going to hit a wall and still deny it ever existed

the Brexit loons are getting more and more desperate as we get closer to a hard brexit and face the consequences

they are shitting their pants, and how do we know? instead of crying Victory and be satisfied with future less immigration, they bitch and maon about the future of the EU, as if somehow it mattered most for them

in reality, it's their only line of defense and justification for the cataclysm that is about to come and will be only on their foolish responsability

Originally Posted by buriramboy

There will be no Irish border as who is going to build it, the EU army?

I reckon the EU army would rather revolt than get involved; fcuking with the Irish worked in the old days, now they will fcuk you right back. No hard border, that's clear, and no other practical and finite resolution that EU rulez allow. Not sure what the implications are of giving NI back to the original owner, probably another circus, might be worth putting on the table sometime in the future.

A united Ireland is provisioned under the GFA. Brexit brings the possibility closer.

Good as I'm all for a United Ireland, Scottish independence to if that's what a majority of Jocks want.

Ok but we keep the Shetlands?

Originally Posted by Troy

A united Ireland is provisioned under the GFA. Brexit brings the possibility closer.

Solves the manufactured border problem, though the NIlanders might wish to have a say.

Not really because it's up to Ireland not the UK to decide and it would lose the DUP and hence the Government majority

Oh, you and your realities, Troy!

Originally Posted by Troy

Not really because it's up to Ireland not the UK to decide and it would lose the DUP and hence the Government majority

The DUP/gov is irrelevant, that is a temporary arrangement, a few tomorrows and it will be history while the NI issue stays on.

I am sure the UK will remain riot free after the divorce from Frau.
Those swarthy rioters won't be able to take their EU vehicles to the Kingdom.

Originally Posted by Troy

Not really because it's up to Ireland not the UK to decide and it would lose the DUP and hence the Government majority

What's up to Ireland? They've overplayed their hand and they now realise this, it having sunk in how much damage it will do to the Irish economy in the event of no deal. As I said Brussels just used Ireland has a pawn and Ireland was to dumb to realise this mistakenly thinking that they were actually a major player in all this. Although ironically Ireland is one of the few countries in Europe we actually have a trade surplus with but the majority of Irish exports go to the UK. Any trade war or end up on WTO terms and the Irish economy will take a massive hit.

I'd be surprised if Ireland had much say in the matter.

According to the IMF study I mentioned earlier, Ireland is projected to suffer a 3-4% GDP loss over 3 (5?) years, similar but slightly less than the UK, and a manageable c1% to the EU. The EU gods have decided to compromise the economy of a member state in order to punish another for daring to leave.

For sure the EU have exploited their own rules to complicate matters over the border issue to obstruct the threat of a clean break, and as of now it looks like the Irish will take it on the chin if they are suitably threatened or sweetened; threatened more likely, gangsters prefer that.

Originally Posted by Switch

No argument with most of that, except for the senior EU partners making up the financial shortfall. French economy in the toilet as Macron proved recently, (they depend on cap for a huge chunk of their gdp). Merkel has already told the ECB, no more handouts from the one country that has bailed everyone out in the past.
The commission is now seriously concerned about making it all add up in future.

Agreed. The problem is two few net contributors and too many recipents. A recipe for economic malaise at best. I'm sure the yermans will eventually tire of carrying the load

The Germans are already tiring of it as shown by the afd continually increasing their vote share. Populist parties of both the left and right are increasing their vote share all across Europe as people don't want to put up with the EU in its current form anymore.

Always amusing to return to this thread to remind oneself of just how utterly stupid and ignorant the average Brexit retard can be.

The EU assesses contribution in accordance with many factors but size of GDP, population and where they are in the convergence programme are probably the more significant factors. Spain, Italy, France, UK and Germany among them pay the lion share but the UK enjoys a very nice rebate of £5.9 billions and so in fact does not pay its way proportionate to GDP. The thing is, and this is a real fucking challenge to monkey fucking retarded Brexiteers, the entire EU budget is around £150 billions which in terms of its combined wealth approximates to 1%.

The UK is a dissolving toilet candy bar in the EU's urinal in terms of significance and within the next two years will shortly drop down two to three places in the league of wealth table behind France and India. In terms of manufacturing value Italy makes more than the UK by around £28 billions annually.

Apropos Ireland, their largest trading partner is actually the US but in terms of the EU, Belgium has exceeded the UK in recent years in trade.

England is in truth about to drop out of the G8 countries and really should not qualify any longer for its seat on the UN Security Council which should now be given to Japan, a country that has much more sway and influence in SE Asia which should be recognised in a more global representation.

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Always amusing to return to this thread to remind oneself of just how utterly stupid and ignorant the average Brexit retard can be.

The EU assesses contribution in accordance with many factors but size of GDP, population and where they are in the convergence programme are probably the more significant factors. Spain, Italy, France, UK and Germany among them pay the lion share but the UK enjoys a very nice rebate of £5.9 billions and so in fact does not pay its way proportionate to GDP. The thing is, and this is a real fucking challenge to monkey fucking retarded Brexiteers, the entire EU budget is around £150 billions which in terms of its combined wealth approximates to 1%.

The UK is a dissolving toilet candy bar in the EU's urinal in terms of significance and within the next two years will shortly drop down two to three places in the league of wealth table behind France and India. In terms of manufacturing value Italy makes more than the UK by around £28 billions annually.

Apropos Ireland, their largest trading partner is actually the US but in terms of the EU, Belgium has exceeded the UK in recent years in trade.

England is in truth about to drop out of the G8 countries and really should not qualify any longer for its seat on the UN Security Council which should now be given to Japan, a country that has much more sway and influence in SE Asia which should be recognised in a more global representation.

Oh please do one, you wittering old goose. I mentioned pessimists earlier, but I’m beginning to wonder if there’s a stronger word for curmudgeonly old farts like you.
I suspect even the remainers are tired of your spiky rhetoric by now.

You Brexiteers are displaying some next level delusion if you think other countries are going to leave the EU, after witnessing the very public UK shitshow going on 2 years now.

Corbyn is pathetic. Too scared to admit he called her a stupid woman. He couldn't even man up on his own comment. He could have called her a cupid stunt that might have at least been a lttle harder to explain but would've at least added a little spice to the parliament. There's more balls in a girls netball team than in Corbyns' pants.