Thread: Rubber trees 101

Originally Posted by jamescollister

so someone thinks things will be picking up.

Unfortunately as a lot of Thai farmers live hand to mouth it may not happen quickly enough.

Originally Posted by OhOh

Originally Posted by jamescollister

so someone thinks things will be picking up.

Unfortunately as a lot of Thai farmers live hand to mouth it may not happen quickly enough.

Rubber is a bit different to rice, cassava or any seasonal crop.
It's a weekly wage for most of the year, 10 rai or more and even at bad prices they drive new cars.
Most will have a rice crop as well, food covered, no rent or mortgage, so income from the rubber is expendable.

Rubber, family farmers do ok, it's the bigger guys that complain the most, they are employers, low prices cut into profits.

Originally Posted by OhOh

That or sell/rent out a daughter.

Or themselves. Woman up the road just bought herself a farang (German), 25,000 Baht on the internet. He hasn't known her for more than a week or so and he paid her folks 300,000 Baht for the Sin Sot. That should keep the leaches happy for a few months.
She was a mia noi til she bought the German. Wouldn't surprise me if she still sees the Thai guy. It's a small village, but talk is plentiful, I'll let you know.

Originally Posted by OhOh

Possibly for a land owner who has capital to survive.

I see the "workers" driving off at night riding well used motor bikes. Not so much now as many rubber farms appear to be abandoned/dormant. The "workers", with no weekly wage, are forced to accept day labour jobs, try illegal "foresting" or move to a city job to keep the wife and family together. That or sell/rent out a daughter.

The government gave out free land and free rubber trees years ago, free crown land is still available,
If you are too lazy to to put in the hours to begin with, you can't expect someone to do it for you.
Illegal logging is big money, as is drug smuggling, dealing, stealing, they aren't forced to do it, easy money. ask a criminal in the UK, USA

Those idle plantations you speak of, are probably unable to hire worker to tap, low price means low wages for the workers.

Those poor Thais having to move to the city for work, FFS, that's the world over, you follow the jobs.

Where can you buy these daughters. or rent them, bar girls are there for the money, easier then working for a living.
Tales of I need the money to support my poor starving family, while taking on a brand new I phone, don't wash.

Prag, go to some inner city shit hole any where in the world, find a hooker, single mun, party girl, tell her here's a big wad of cash, new house, new car and weekly income, come be my girlfriend, see what happens.

The Strongest El Nino In 18 Years Would Further Affect Global NR Production In 2015



The Strongest El Nino In 18 Years Would Further Affect Global NR Production In 2015

The global NR production is expected to decrease further in 2015 following the prolonged and strong El Nino.

As a matter of fact, for the first seven months of 2015, NR production in Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) fell by 2.1% to 5.895 million MT as compared to the same period in 2014 at 6.020 million MT.

The current phenomena of El Nino is the strongest in 18 years since 1997 and is forecast by National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA to linger until end of this year and most likely to continue even further to early 2016.

El Nino changes the weather pattern and many countries are experiencing hot and dry weather. The current prolonged El Nino brings drought to agriculture areas and impacting negatively the production of many commodities such as wheat, sugarcane, cocoa, natural rubber and palm oil in several parts of the world particularly in USA, Latin America, Asia and Australia.

In addition to that, the current non-remunerative low price would further impact NR production in all producing countries.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

free crown land is still available,

Have you any links to this, Thai or English?

Originally Posted by OhOh

Originally Posted by jamescollister

free crown land is still available,

Have you any links to this, Thai or English?

Sor. Por. Gor is the main one, but there are lots of other titles.

If you go to the land office, say your poor, have no land, they can give you some, go to the Amphor or Tessaban, claim some no title land, pay the land taxes yearly and get a possession right.

See some unused [3 years] Sor Por Gor land, you can claim it, as it reverts to the crown if not used.

Other schemes around me, cheap or free land for rubber and palm oil, part of the populate the border plan.

Some years ago and may be still, they were giving out free shop-houses, Chong Mek border crossing, if you lived in it for 10 years, it was yours. Government built towns long borders have lots of schemes to attract outsiders in.

Right now near me, the army is confiscating loads of land near a dam, Lao land border.
Given out 10 years ago for palm and rubber plantations, 10 years up, no plantation, land goes back to the crown and can be given to someone else.

I have 15 rai from the rubber board, had to pay 5,000 Baht a rai [grease] got free rubber trees. Over 10 years now and if they ever get around to checking it, a charnote will be issued.

Thais are generally lazy, full rice bowl today, Buddha will take care of tomorrow, working for your future is not necessary.

Have little time for the poor villager crying poverty, while sleeping in his hammock or drinking Lao Kow all day.

Except for some teachers and government guys, not one person in my village has a job, those that took up rubber, palm oil or cashew nuts, all have new cars and concrete brick homes.

Thanks, I'll talk to my missus, whether she will be classified as poor is another thing.

Originally Posted by OhOh

Thanks, I'll talk to my missus, whether she will be classified as poor is another thing.

Think your misses will tell you to fuk off, if you send her off to work in the fields.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by OhOh

Thanks, I'll talk to my missus, whether she will be classified as poor is another thing.

Think your misses will tell you to fuk off, if you send her off to work in the fields.

Indeed. That subsidized life is hard to break from.

Yet, many still do regardless - just outta habit.
Feel contributing.

Originally Posted by thaimeme

Indeed. That subsidized life is hard to break from.

Yet, many still do regardless - just outta habit.
Feel contributing.

True in some cases, but not so much habit, but need to secure tomorrow.
Nearest farang, 7 KM away, his wife never stops, rice, cassava, chickens, market stalls, frogs, everything to make a Baht.
3 kids, all his and no outside income until last year, small pension now.
They both work, but she puts him to shame in the fields.
My wife on the other hand was told by a wondering monk, when at university, she would marry a man from far away who wore a uniform.
She would never really ever need to work, if a monk tells you that, must be true.
12 years later and she's not had a real job, can't argue with that, I haven't done a days paid work in 5 years either.

Kind of miss working at times, helps fill in the day.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Think your misses will tell you to fuk off, if you send her off to work in the fields.

Agreed, except the times she has worked on me of course. That she has a variety of skills which always ensure she wins.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

was told by a wondering monk

Tall, plump, chap in an orange robe? He gets about alot.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

I haven't done a days paid work

Yes, it's amazing how many unpaid work days there is in a week and how they fly by. There's always work here for a good tapper I'm told.

Sold at auction on Tuesday, 24.50 baht per kg. Averaging 35-40k per month on our 60% cut from the rainy season production so far.

I think rubber will recover- at the Big Commodity end, latest word is that inventories are dwindling. Imho, now is a time to plant not demolish.

Sold at auction yesterday, 23.78 baht per kg.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Sold at auction yesterday, 23.78 baht per kg.

Price should be going up, don't understand what's going on.
Outputs down, Indian tappers are on strike, stocks in the warehouses. are low.
Can only be oil prices bringing the market down, but it's not a true reflect of rubber supply.
Capitalism, I guess.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

stocks in the warehouses. are low

But more than enough for planned requirements, yes?

Originally Posted by OhOh

Originally Posted by jamescollister

stocks in the warehouses. are low

But more than enough for planned requirements, yes?

That's a big question, Chinese companies where borrowing money, using assets of rubber, copper, aluminium, held in bonded warehouses.
Turns out, some warehouses are empty, so the stocks may not be there.

Big tire makers have used the low prices to build up stock, but rubber is bought on the futures market, months in advance, so it's a guessing game on supply, enough, too much or too little.

Every alleged expert has a different opinion, Bloomberg's says plenty, world rubber group says not enough, toss a coin.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by OhOh

Originally Posted by jamescollister

stocks in the warehouses. are low

But more than enough for planned requirements, yes?

That's a big question, Chinese companies where borrowing money, using assets of rubber, copper, aluminium, held in bonded warehouses.
Turns out, some warehouses are empty, so the stocks may not be there.

Big tire makers have used the low prices to build up stock, but rubber is bought on the futures market, months in advance, so it's a guessing game on supply, enough, too much or too little.

Every alleged expert has a different opinion, Bloomberg's says plenty, world rubber group says not enough, toss a coin.

Just curious, Jim...
Outside of the ever-present and steady SE Asian supply - does Africa, South America, or South Asia create much economic competition? Like most historically valued commodities, I'm sure that rubber and it's by-products is highly politically manipulated and controlled.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

but rubber is bought on the futures market, months in advance

Maybe users have multiple years worth in storage. Some countries companies plan for the next day, some the next quarter, some the next year, some the next 5 years and some for the next decade.

Maybe flawed logic?
Rubber buyers always make a margin of 2-5 baht per kilo regardless of price.
Ergo buying is the way to go if one can be bothered… without the need to farm trees.
Granted, according to Jim, theoretically one needs a license. Do those that sell at auction have to produce a license?
Once upon a time used haul an overloaded pickup to major dealers..was asked once if we were buyers..The answer was no obviously but doubt it would have made any difference.
New gate buyer today..old guy offered 18baht, new lady in new Triton gave us 23 baht...hey ho...

While it would certainly be nice to see cup at 70-80 baht luckily we have sufficient trees and output to keep the larder full, the beer fridge full and can pay the electric bill on time. Sometimes have to delve into my savings for MIL’s medical expenses and adult lazy unemployed step kids...But what the hell? Otherwise a sweet life down on the farm.

Originally Posted by OhOh

Originally Posted by jamescollister

but rubber is bought on the futures market, months in advance

Maybe users have multiple years worth in storage. Some countries companies plan for the next day, some the next quarter, some the next year, some the next 5 years and some for the next decade.

No, unprocessed raw rubber, block or sheet, only has a shelf life of about 12 months.
Remember it's organic and starts getting brittle with time, so you need to process [vulcanize] within the year for most uses.

Cup buyers round here go broke more often then not, guessing water content and tomorrows price in not easy.