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  1. #51
    Thailand Expat Hampsha's Avatar
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    Listening to you guys, it seems gold has become too complex to understand. It's like one of those derivative watchamacallits. Things used to be simple to understand at one time. Being a know-nothing like most people in this world, I have to assume that most of the masses buying gold out there are buying it simply because they think it is going to go up. They've got extra cash in their pockets so they buy it. They buy it without out all the complex thinking that the experts here and those like Soros use.
    Last edited by Hampsha; 22-05-2011 at 12:49 PM.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    There is already premiums
    taking delivery is actually stupid when you think of it, so paying a premium is being double stupid

    the irony is the higher the price and the higher the risk, the more likely the fools will pay a premium for physical delivery. It's one big spiral of non-sense
    It is just the opposite like usual.

    The whole reason to buy gold is to pull your wealth completely out of the financial system. Taking physical is a bet against the paper pricing futures and ETF system itself.

    The paper gold system, London Bullion Market Assn. is rumored to be levered about 100 to 1. (1 oz of bullion for every 100 paper ounces traded. )

    Now what do you think will happen to the price of 1 real oz when 100 other people like you thought they all had a claim on that oz ? It is only the guy with the oz in his hands that wins.

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirk diggler View Post
    Lets make this simple.

    If I want to buy and ounce of gold I call/go to/logon to _______. I buy my ounce for the current cost and then they will/will not send me ______. Then, if I want to sell, all I have to do is _______.

    Thanks.
    Find a bullion dealer in Thailand that sells gold bars(not coins) Draft the bullion dealer the money and take the gold.

    The Eurozone has no tax on selling gold so that would be the best. Just go to a bullion dealer in Europe and sell your gold to them.

    I wouldn't buy gold if you where thinking of doing a trade with a duration of a year or so.

  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    why are those silly chinese buying gold ? seems like they don't know where to put their money and fueling the bubble

    that's not going to end well,
    Says the guy who is still fixated on the real estate bubble....

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    Taking physical is a bet against the paper pricing futures and ETF system itself
    exactly, it's a bet and the payoff is extremely low, and you are still paying a high premium for it.

    What are you going to do with your 1KG of Gold on you when it's the end of the financial world ?

    do you really think you will not be mugged or killed over it ?

  6. #56
    Have you got any cheese Thetyim's Avatar
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    If it's the end of the financial world then it's the guy with the cheese sandwich who gets mugged not the guy with the gold

  7. #57
    Thailand Expat Hampsha's Avatar
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    The end of the world just happened for some. Anti-climax. Seems a lot of people especially rightwingers believe in an economic rapture taking place in the near future. Some said it was to take place years ago. Quite a few board members here seem to think 'the End' is near but they don't believe they have anything in common with all the people who thought they would be in heaven this morning. The economical doomsday people believe they are heading to a financial heaven along with their gurus.

  8. #58
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hampsha
    Listening to you guys, it seems gold has become too complex to understand.
    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    Find a bullion dealer in Thailand that sells gold bars(not coins) Draft the bullion dealer the money and take possession of the gold.
    That's as clear and simple as it gets.
    Last edited by OhOh; 22-05-2011 at 06:18 PM.

  9. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thetyim
    If it's the end of the financial world then it's the guy with the cheese sandwich who gets mugged not the guy with the gold
    good point,

    both would be mugged and killed,

  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thetyim View Post
    ^
    If it's the end of the financial world then it's the guy with the cheese sandwich who gets mugged not the guy with the gold

    what sort of cheese?

  11. #61
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Thetyim
    If it's the end of the financial world then it's the guy with the cheese sandwich who gets mugged not the guy with the gold
    good point,

    both would be mugged and killed,
    Once you have bought the bars of gold turn the gold into golden bullets, good for the "Zombie" threat as well I believe.

  12. #62
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    [quote=Butterfly;1763857]
    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    Taking physical is a bet against the paper pricing futures and ETF system itself
    exactly, it's a bet and the payoff is extremely low, and you are still paying a high premium for it.
    WTF are you talking about ? If the LBMA is levered 100-1 then how the hell could the payoff be low ? We could easily see 1000%s of percent gains from here. Gold rose 2300% the last time this happened.

    What are you going to do with your 1KG of Gold on you when it's the end of the financial world ?
    I am not predicting anarchy. The chances that gold will play a very important roll in the new financial system are very high. I am not going to bother getting into that, its complicated.

    do you really think you will not be mugged or killed over it ?
    i have a good place for it.

  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hampsha View Post
    The end of the world just happened for some. Anti-climax. Seems a lot of people especially rightwingers believe in an economic rapture taking place in the near future. Some said it was to take place years ago. Quite a few board members here seem to think 'the End' is near but they don't believe they have anything in common with all the people who thought they would be in heaven this morning. The economical doomsday people believe they are heading to a financial heaven along with their gurus.
    how much do you want to bet that there is a serious currency crisis in the next couple years ?

  14. #64
    Have you got any cheese Thetyim's Avatar
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    Did you bury it in Cambodia ?

  15. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    I am not going to bother getting into that, its complicated.

  16. #66
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    First of all, please excuse me, I really do know very little on the matter.

    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dirk diggler View Post
    Lets make this simple.

    If I want to buy and ounce of gold I call/go to/logon to _______. I buy my ounce for the current cost and then they will/will not send me ______. Then, if I want to sell, all I have to do is _______.

    Thanks.
    Find a bullion dealer in Thailand that sells gold bars(not coins) Draft the bullion dealer the money and take the gold.
    Ok, simple. How can I be assured it's real gold and not this lead stuff we've heard about? Should I bring a really big guy with me for the journey home/to the bank? Can I pay cash?

    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    The Eurozone has no tax on selling gold so that would be the best. Just go to a bullion dealer in Europe and sell your gold to them.
    Ok, so now I have my wedge of gold, bought in Thailand and the same rate it would cost internationally, right? Or is it cheaper? Why would I pay for a return to Europe to sell it? I mean, after travel expenses for a start.

    I would basically just buy it, hold onto it for future resources. An asset if you like. Can't I just sell it back for the higher value when I see fit to sell? What's the deal with tax on selling gold? Surely that's only on profit, but how much percent?



    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    I wouldn't buy gold if you where thinking of doing a trade with a duration of a year or so.
    So a year from now, gold will most likely be fucked?

    That makes my think that my best option is buy buy an almost new Harley Davidson. If found at a reasonable price (for Thailand) I can have a lot more fun out of it than a gold door stop. I can then sell it on for the same price, if not more, and buy lots of gold while the price has dropped.

    Now, the ultimate question. Which one has more chance of crashing in my posession?
    Lang may yer lum reek...

  17. #67
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    Ok, simple. How can I be assured it's real gold and not this lead stuff we've heard about? Should I bring a really big guy with me for the journey home/to the bank? Can I pay cash?
    If you buy it from a reputable dealer then it should be good gold, if not then you can sew. A jeweler can check it and make sure its good. At this point gold is safe, nobody owns it, nobody cares about it, nobody knows what its worth. You don't have to worry about the journey home.

    You can pay cash but they might want to see a paper trail for the cash, for Canada anyway.

    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    The Eurozone has no tax on selling gold so that would be the best. Just go to a bullion dealer in Europe and sell your gold to them.
    Ok, so now I have my wedge of gold, bought in Thailand and the same rate it would cost internationally, right? Or is it cheaper? Why would I pay for a return to Europe to sell it? I mean, after travel expenses for a start.
    Yes, the same rate but it depends on what currency you buy it in. Gold is priced in USD at the moment so if the baht rises, gold gets cheaper. Don't worry about small fluctuations though.

    If the Thai government pulls a stupid move at puts a 50% tax on gold sales then your trip to Europe will be cheap. That is the only thing you have to worry about.

    Can't I just sell it back for the higher value when I see fit to sell?
    You could but you will probably sell too early.

    What's the deal with tax on selling gold? Surely that's only on profit, but how much percent?
    Thats the big issue. Most places have capital gains tax and sales tax and bullshit like that. And if governments are starving for revenue they will change rules and do stupid things so just watch out.

    The Euro is vying to be the new world reserve currency and it involves gold, that is why there is a 0% tax on gold in the Euro zone and it will probably stay that way. Switzerland will probably be 0% too.


    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    I wouldn't buy gold if you where thinking of doing a trade with a duration of a year or so.
    So a year from now, gold will most likely be fucked?
    No, it could go up for another 20 years and you will probably just sell way too early and piss yourself off.

    That makes my think that my best option is buy buy an almost new Harley Davidson. If found at a reasonable price (for Thailand) I can have a lot more fun out of it than a gold door stop. I can then sell it on for the same price, if not more, and buy lots of gold while the price has dropped.

    Now, the ultimate question. Which one has more chance of crashing in my posession?
    What you should do is buy some of both. Buy some physical and bury it and forget about it. Then buy a gold ETF or something to play the trading game and make shorter term profits.

    The market will get volatile with ups and downs, that is what scares people out of bull markets. You will get scared out of your paper positions but you will still be in it when it matters if you have gold in your backyard.

  18. #68
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    Ok, thanks.

    Now, without trying to rock the boat: Butterfly, do you agree with this or how would you approach it differently?

  19. #69
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    I think we got through that discussion with socal before in some thread,

    buying Gold is fine but the question is how much ? if like socal it's all or nothing, then it's very foolish, no diversification, leveraged exposure, it's a disaster waiting to happen. Basically it's a big bet, casino like.

    the best way to do it IMO if you want get all the benefits of Gold exposure is to buy a Gold Bullion ETF, they can be cheap and they are secure, or a Precious Metal ETF if you don't want to be all in Gold. Again this must come from other asset allocation, so you can't put all your savings only in a Gold ETF or PM ETF

    Put no more than 30% of your portfolio for example in different commodities like Agriculture, PM, and Energy ETF

  20. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirk diggler View Post
    Ok, thanks.

    Now, without trying to rock the boat: Butterfly, do you agree with this or how would you approach it differently?
    It depends on how serious you are and how much money you have to invest. If you want the confidence to make huge one way bets then you have to take the time to figure it out.

    Buy as much gold and you understand.

  21. #71
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly
    the best way to do it IMO if you want get all the benefits of Gold exposure is to buy a Gold Bullion ETF
    An article of EFTs which some might find useful.

    Terry Smith: 'exchange traded funds are worse than I thought' - Telegraph

    "On 11th January I published my first annual letter to the holders of the Fundsmith Equity Fund. In it I levelled some criticisms at the investment fad for Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”).
    One of my basic concerns was that I thought there was a danger of ETFs being mis-sold.
    I suspect a lot of retail investors think that ETFs are the same as index funds. Some of them are, but many aren’t. In particular, the performance of short ETFs and leveraged ETFs may diverge markedly from what an investor who believes they are simply index funds would expect.
    It isn’t hard to give examples in which investors would lose money on a leveraged long ETF if the market went up over a period of significant volatility, or in which they lost money owning a short ETF and the market went down over a period in which there were some sharp rallies.
    The problem is with the daily compounding of ETFs.
    Plus many ETFs do not contain a basket of the underlying securities or assets which they are attempting to track. Instead they hold asset swap agreements with a counterparty (often the bank which is the ETF sponsor) which aim to replicate the performance of the index or asset concerned.
    There are obvious dangers in such an arrangement in the areas of counterparty risk and collateralisation of the sort which caused so many problems during the Credit Crisis.
    A good example of the potential risks here is given by PEK, the NYSE-listed Market Vectors China A Shares ETF. It is illegal for foreign investors other than licensed institutions to buy A Shares listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen. So the ETF owns swaps with brokers who are licensed to hold the underlying shares. If PEK owned a significant portion of the float in A Shares and its holders tried to liquidate at speed it might be interesting.
    Some commentators claim we need not worry much about retail investors misunderstanding ETFs as in Europe at least, they are mainly utilised by institutional investors.
    This of course misses a couple of vital points. One is that the underlying clients for many of those “institutions” are individual investors - do they really understand the risks their private wealth manager is running with ETFs?
    Also the Financial Times FTfm supplement carried an article on 9th May pointing out this lack of direct retail involvement in ETFs in Europe on the same day as the wrap around advert for its supplement was supplied by Amundi ETF. On that day commuters coming into London were being given handouts of glossy brochures on Amundi ETfs plus a natty plastic credit card/season ticket wallet emblazoned with the slogan
    “Amundi ETF: More than just another tracker”
    Quite so.
    At this rate we may soon have to worry about the direct retail involvement in ETFs.
    However, there is another and perhaps more pernicious danger with ETFs than misunderstanding or mis-selling.
    An ETF is in effect a hybrid vehicle which combines features of an open-ended or mutual fund with those of a closed-end fund. They are like open-ended funds insofar as a purchaser buys or redeems so-called creation units. But they are also tradable in the secondary market, so ostensibly providing real-time liquidity.
    Secondary trading activity brings with it the possibility that market participants will short the ETFs themselves. And there is no limit to the short selling, which is impossible in an ETF in the same way that there is in an equity.
    In an ordinary equity, the short-selling is limited by the ability of the short sellers to borrow the stock so that they can deliver it to complete their sell bargains. In an ETF a short seller can always rely on the process of creating shares in the ETF to ensure he can deliver.
    This leads to the possibility that a buyer of an ETF share is buying for a short seller and that no new share has yet been created.
    The investors who buy from the short sellers don’t own a claim on the underlying basket of securities or swap in the ETF, they own a promise to deliver the ETF share given by the short-seller.
    The problem this causes is that as no new shares are created in the ETF by this process, the assets of the ETF may become significantly less than the outstanding cumulative buy orders would suggest. This is a significant problem given reports that there has been short-selling up to levels of 1000pc short in some ETFs.
    You might think that one way to overcome the risks involved in this at a stroke is for the ETF sponsor to create the shares represented by the cumulative buying interest, but this may be easier said than done.
    Take an ETF like IWM in which the short interest recently exceeded 100pc or $15bn (£9.3bn). IWM invests in the Russell 2000 US small cap index. To invest $15bn in the basket of stocks involved would require about a week’s trading – and that is if the ETF creation was the sole trading in those stocks. The scope for a short squeeze is tremendous.
    The net result is that across the entire ETF asset class portion of the funds which ETF purchasers think have been invested in ETFs, via the creation of new shares, has in effect been lent to hedge funds. The ETF holdings are not all backed by assets of the sort investors expect, even if they understand what the ETF is meant to do.
    Perhaps these little understood structural issues explain why 70pc of the cancelled trades in last May’s Flash Crash were in ETFs when ETFs represent only 11pc of the securities in issue in the US.
    Moreover, in the case of some ETFs such as PEK it is difficult to fathom what the short interest in PEK really represents as it is illegal to short China A shares.
    Another example of the issues in this sector which recently crossed my desk was a fundraising proposition for a business which undertakes trading in ETFs. It shall of course remain nameless, but it trades, arbitrages and makes prices in ETFs with a particular focus on the less traded ETFs. This company describes itself as a ‘fairly thinly capitalised entity’. There are echoes of the parallel banking system in the Credit Crisis here.
    It also describes the pace of development in the ETF area as ‘breakneck’. I just wonder whose neck will eventually get broken."
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  22. #72
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    ^ good article, you need to choose your ETF very carefully

    derivatives or double up ETF are not the kind of exposure you should be looking for either

  23. #73
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    looks like bangyai ,thormaturge and socal got it about right.

  24. #74
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    Not only fiddling in Gold, Soros has his fingers in this latest LightSquared corruption including the Obungler...



    • Soros reportedly invested in the telecom company LightSquared through Harbinger Capital Partners (a hedge fund run by billionaire financier Philip Falcone, owns LightSquared)., and many of the nonprofits he finances have backed LightSquared in regulatory and policy disputes....
    • Air Force Gen. William Shelton, head of Space Command, testified to Congress this month that giving LightSquared the radio frequencies it is slated to get would interfere with the military's GPS needs.
    • Ahead of Shelton's testimony, White House officials nudged Shelton to go easy on LightSquared ... Another government official said the White House pushed him to downplay the GPS worries.
    • Falcone is a big political donor who has given exclusively to Democrats and independents since Obama's election. Emails have surfaced showing LightSquared executives discussing donations to Obama's campaign in policy conversations with White House officials. Finally, there's the eye-catching detail that another Obama donor, George Haywood, steered then-Sen. Obama to invest $90,000 in the company (then named SkyTerra) back in 2005 (Martha Stewart missed that particular tip).
    • Soros generously funds a huge swath of the liberal movement, and has aligned his business interests with Obama's big-government policies. For instance, Obama green-energy official Cathy Zoi left the Energy Department earlier this year to help run a new green-energy (and thus subsidy-dependent) investment fund Soros was starting.
    • In the LightSquared affair, Soros shows up repeatedly.
    http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/soros-turns-obamas-lightsquared-imbroglio
    A Deplorable Bitter Clinger

  25. #75
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    blah blah blah blah blah. The other George W Bush saw to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Put Bush's face on the SS guy's face in the front an Booneme, you can choose which other SS guy you would like to put your face on.

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