Thread: Get ready for several years of killer heat, top weather forecasters warn

Get ready for several years of even more record-breaking heat that pushes Earth to more deadly, fiery and uncomfortable extremes, two of the world’s top weather agencies forecast.


There’s an 80% chance the world will break another annual temperature record in the next five years, and it’s even more probable that the world will again exceed the international temperature threshold set 10 years ago, according to a five-year forecast released Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office.


“Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates in real life to a higher chance of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts,” said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn’t part of the calculations but said they made sense. “So higher global mean temperatures translates to more lives lost.”

With every tenth of a degree the world warms from human-caused climate change “we will experience higher frequency and more extreme events (particularly heat waves but also droughts, floods, fires and human-reinforced hurricanes/typhoons),” emailed Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He was not part of the research.

And for the first time there’s a chance — albeit slight — that before the end of the decade, the world’s annual temperature will shoot past the Paris climate accord goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and hit a more alarming 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of heating since the mid-1800s, the two agencies said.


There’s an 86% chance that one of the next five years will pass 1.5 degrees and a 70% chance that the five years as a whole will average more than that global milestone, they figured.


The projections come from more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations run by 10 global centers of scientists.

Ten years ago, the same teams figured there was a similar remote chance — about 1% — that one of the upcoming years would exceed that critical 1.5 degree threshold and then it happened last year. This year, a 2-degree Celsius above pre-industrial year enters the equation in a similar manner, something UK Met Office longer term predictions chief Adam Scaife and scientist Leon Hermanson called “shocking.”

“It’s not something anyone wants to see, but that’s what the science is telling us,” Hermanson said. Two degrees of warming is the secondary threshold, the one considered less likely to break, set by the 2015 Paris agreement.


Technically, even though 2024 was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, the Paris climate agreement’s threshold is for a 20-year time period, so it has not been exceeded. Factoring in the past 10 years and forecasting the next 10 years, the world is now probably about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter since the mid 1800s, World Meteorological Organization climate services director Chris Hewitt estimated.

“With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat. Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape,” said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter.

Ice in the Arctic — which will continue to warm 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world — will melt and seas will rise faster, Hewitt said.


What tends to happen is that global temperatures rise like riding on an escalator, with temporary and natural El Nino weather cycles acting like jumps up or down on that escalator, scientists said. But lately, after each jump from an El Nino, which adds warming to the globe, the planet doesn’t go back down much, if at all.


“Record temperatures immediately become the new normal,” said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson.

The world could break another annual temperature record in the next five years | AP News

Bugger.


Does Greta know?

If every year was as pleasant in Chiang Mai as this has been, all would be great. Last year was hellishly hot, though. My power bill were twice as much last year as this. Don’t want a repeat of 2024 weather every year until the end!

Originally Posted by Edmond

Bugger.


Does Greta know?

Greta has been telling you for years.

Originally Posted by misskit

If every year was as pleasant in Chiang Mai as this has been, all would be great. Last year was hellishly hot, though. My power bill were twice as much last year as this. Don’t want a repeat of 2024 weather every year until the end!

La Nina rescued us.

It's El Nino that's going to make it uncomfortable again.

human-caused climate change

what a load of fucking arsewipe.


the unstoppable power of nature versus the inflated ego of the boffin class and their stubborn ignorance of history.

and we know who will win this one.

Originally Posted by taxexile

what a load of fucking arsewipe.

This sums up your utter stupidity as a geriatric science denying old boomer. Fool.

Originally Posted by taxexile

the unstoppable power of nature versus the inflated ego of the boffin class and their stubborn ignorance of history.

It has been known that mankind can influence the power of weather you braindead wanker.

Originally Posted by taxexile

and we know who will win this one.

Typical boomer attitude. You raped the earth and left those of us younger to face the consequences. It is even more sickening to see you spew you sad bile here when it has been debunked for years in the climate science thread.

the climate science thread.

what!!! are you talking about that never ending diatribe of unverified bilge posted by mr. methane.

You raped the earth

to make the devices, the products, the food, the clothes, the heat, the air con, the power, the medicines, and every other fucking convenience you purchase and enjoy today.

if it wasnt for the industrial revolution pioneered by the brits, expanded by the krauts and the yanks and now dominated by the bobbleheads and the chinese we would all still be poverty stricken peasants, living like animals in mud huts and dying of cholera before we reached the age of 40.

want to save the planet? then think about birth control and reducing the population, rather than the idiocy of net zero and veganism.

Originally Posted by taxexile

what a load of fucking arsewipe.

Ah bless Tax and all the others with the scientific acumen of a dead slug.

^^ Nah, we just need another world war!!

Time for the Ukraine conflict to spread to Eastern Europe, time for the Zionists to be taught a lesson and time for China and India to get to grips with eachother.

Nothing like a few good battles to cull the population...

...just as long as Thailand stays neutral for R&R.

...

Originally Posted by bsnub

It has been known that mankind can influence the power of weather you braindead wanker.

Word is that the methane you produce and expel through your arse is responsible for all those Twisters in the mid West.


There's even a t-shirt!

Honestly, what is the point of arguing about this? The earth is becoming hotter whether by mankind or natural forces. Not a damn thing you can do about it now.

Get ready for years of killer heat!

Originally Posted by taxexile

'arry, best you stick to your daily mail "drunk slappers on planes" cut and pasting duties (given to you as a favour by misskit, to avoid her from suffering the embarrassment of being associated with such puerile bilge), and stop overthinking the real issues of the day. its well above your pay grade and you'll just give yourself a headache.

leave the important stuff to those of us more qualified to comment

Given the drivel you spew on the topic, I don't think overthinking is something of which you'll ever be accused.

Originally Posted by HuangLao

Indeed.
Always been understood that you can't reason with ignorance.

That's why no-one tries to reason with you Jeff. Well that and you're a pompous dullard.

Originally Posted by misskit

Honestly, what is the point of arguing about this? The earth is becoming hotter whether by mankind or natural forces. Not a damn thing you can do about it now.

Get ready for years of killer heat!

Well in reality the five major tipping points have yet to be breached, but yes, it's unlikely any sufficient action will take place now.

Especially when the world is full of uneducated, gullible dross like tax and jeff.

'arry, either every country in the world decides to head towards this net zero thing, or no country bothers to try. people need their shit, their cars, their meat, their fish, their clothes and their phones.

so as long as china, the usa and india turn their backs on net zero, so the rest of the world should also turn their backs on an orthodoxy that will only weaken them on the world stage and make them more dependent on the powerful countries.

in 100 years time it may be possible that the clean tech will be readily available to produce the energy we need to satisfy the demands of an overpopulated planet, but until then we should just stop the ridiculous virtue signalling and drill baby drill, let nature take its course, and bugger the consequences, because the fact is, we have no choice.

the problem, as i have been saying for years, is not the oil, but the people. there are too many of us.

nature will find a way of saving itself, even if it means reducing the number of people on the planet by disease, warfare or natural disaster. but to think that we puny humans can do anything about it is absurd. it is way above OUR pay grade.

progress is unstoppable, even if it pushes us off a cliff in a couple of hundred years time, just like the dinosaurs of the past.

You're just ten years from pegging it, and a shallow self-interested fool.

go on then cyrille, tell us exactly what sacrifices you make to save the planet.

do you refuse all those plastic bags they give you in the supermarket, do you reduce your aircon use, do you walk or use public transport instead of using a bike or car, have you stopped eating meat, fish and eggs. do you refuse to buy cheap goods made in polluting chinese factories? of course not.

you just sit in front of your laptop criticising others. ever tried to calculate how much energy is used (wasted in your case) in making one post or one e mail. of course not.

you are just another of the many thick as mince intolerant "dont do as i do, do as i tell you" gobshites.


so s.t.f.u.

Originally Posted by taxexile

'arry, either every country in the world decides to head towards this net zero thing, or no country bothers to try. people need their shit, their cars, their meat, their fish, their clothes and their phones.

so as long as china, the usa and india turn their backs on net zero, so the rest of the world should also turn their backs on an orthodoxy that will only weaken them on the world stage and make them more dependent on the powerful countries.

in 100 years time it may be possible that the clean tech will be readily available to produce the energy we need to satisfy the demands of an overpopulated planet, but until then we should just stop the ridiculous virtue signalling and drill baby drill, let nature take its course, and bugger the consequences, because the fact is, we have no choice.

the problem, as i have been saying for years, is not the oil, but the people. there are too many of us.

nature will find a way of saving itself, even if it means reducing the number of people on the planet by disease, warfare or natural disaster. but to think that we puny humans can do anything about it is absurd. it is way above OUR pay grade.

progress is unstoppable, even if it pushes us off a cliff in a couple of hundred years time, just like the dinosaurs of the past.

Which is why I said "it's unlikely any sufficient action will take place now".

Quite apart from any environmental concerns, Britain needs renewable energy for its security.

The North Sea is pretty much depleted without using very expensive kit that would be totally cost ineffective.

We should know by now that a reliance on fuels from any other country is a security weakness.

On the other hand, some people don't like the appearance of wind turbines.

And some people think it's 'woke'.

So there are 'minus' points.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Which is why I said "it's unlikely any sufficient action will take place now".

not only now, but it will never be taken purely in order to fulfil that ridiculous mantra "save the planet", it will only ever be taken when it is economically viable, i.e. cheaper, to do it. that's the way the world works. utopia does not and will never exist.

at the moment all the efforts to do it are merely enriching and exporting the filth to china, in order to assuage our virtuous souls.

we, well not me but you, and of course your dumb as shit net zero types, are just dozy lemmings being led by gormless donkeys.

you really couldnt make it up.

Originally Posted by cyrille

The North Sea is pretty much depleted without using very expensive kit that would be totally cost ineffective.

Not according to our geologist.


Where exactly did you read that drivel?
Your only news source I presume...the Guardian.

Originally Posted by taxexile

what!!! are you talking about that never ending diatribe of unverified bilge posted by mr. methane.

I will not quote The Telegraph