Thread: Why is it so Hot Everywhere?

5 in the valley tonight up here 2-3 forecast have unplugged the fridge.
Wales come home to a real fire.

NOAA forecasts extraordinarily busy Atlantic hurricane season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season features an unprecedented combination of air and ocean conditions, and is likely to be extremely active, according to the U.S. government's official seasonal outlook released this morning.

Why it matters: Hurricanes are nature's largest and most expensive storms, and the odds of a U.S. landfall during an above average season may be generally higher this year.

• "This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways," said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration administrator Rick Spinrad in a press conference.

By the numbers: The NOAA is forecasting the season will bring 85% odds of an above normal season, with 17–25 named storms of tropical storm intensity or greater, eight to 13 of which will become hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

• This is the most aggressive hurricane season outlook that NOAA has ever issued for its May outlook, Spinrad said.
• The numbers are well above the 1991–2020 average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes each season.
• NOAA is projecting just a 5% chance of a below average season.

Threat level: This season will officially start on June 1 in unparalleled territory.

• There are record to near-record warm ocean waters in every part of the Atlantic, from the Caribbean to the "Main Development Region," where many of the fiercest storms with the highest odds of affecting the Leeward Islands and U.S. get their start, all the way to more northern latitudes.

Stunning stat: The Caribbean's current average ocean temperature is currently higher than the 1991–2020 typical peak for an entire season, whereas the Main Development Region's ocean heat content is at Aug. 10 levels.

• The Gulf of Mexico is also warmer than average.

How it works: Warm water is hurricane fuel. There are few signs that a significant cool down will take place between now and the heart of the season in August and September.

• However, some portions of the Atlantic may be knocked out of record territory during the season.

The big picture: At the same time, in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, a transition from a strong El Niño to a La Niña event is underway. La Niña typically reduces upper level winds over the tropical Atlantic, which can weaken tropical storms and hurricanes.

• According to Michael Lowry, a hurricane and storm surge specialist for WPLG Local 10 in Miami, La Niña can allow storms to form closer to the East Coast and threaten land, given the relaxed wind shear.
• "The switch from a potent El Niño in 2023 to La Niña conditions by the 2024 hurricane season would not only reduce storm-busting wind shear in the Atlantic, it could also lessen that protection closer to land areas, including the mainland U.S.," Lowry told Axios via email.
• "While seasonal hurricane forecasts can't tell us when or where a storm might strike, the record warm waters through the Caribbean and Gulf combined with a potential La Niña does stack the deck in favor of development farther west in the Atlantic this year and potentially closer to land areas."

Yes, but: There are factors that could thwart nascent tropical storms and hurricanes even with extremely warm waters present.

• These include the presence of dry air in mid levels of the atmosphere, and Sahara dust blowing across the Atlantic from western Africa.

In addition, while the oceans would support intense storms, clusters of thunderstorms, or "seeds" of tropical storms, are required in order to generate hurricanes.

• These could be missing in action this season, though computer models do not suggest this will be the case.

Context: This season comes as numerous studies point to climate change's increasingly clear influence on hurricanes.

• Recent hurricane seasons have featured more storms that have undergone periods of astonishingly rapid intensification that studies have been tied to human-caused global climate change.
• Hurricanes are also bringing greater rainfall than they used to as the climate warms, with some studies showing they are moving more slowly over land as well.

The bottom line: There are plenty of critics of seasonal hurricane outlooks who say they do not provide people with actionable information.

• But Lowry urged people to prepare for this season as they would for any other, and to take advantage of state tax holidays, which Florida has on June 1, for example, to stock up on supplies.

Those Hicks will be playing more of their favorite Neil Young "Like a Hurricane".

Just a moment...

NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Originally Posted by S Landreth

Yes, but: There are factors that could thwart nascent tropical storms and hurricanes even with extremely warm waters present

I think I heard someone mention atomic bombs ��

He’s a fvckin’ idiot

"I got it. I got it. Why don't we nuke them?"

Another idiot remark…….

Wind turbines - “They say the noise causes cancer.”

In under 4 weeks the days get shorter in the chilly North.

7 in the valley 4-5 tonight amongst the sheep and goats

Llanberis - BBC Weather



If the Blotto come up my new wheels from Sweden




Of course the melting glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are very worrying.

Well I've put the air purifier away and switched the AC to "Fan Only".

So it's not hot everywhere any more.

May numbers should be out next week

Climate Change Added a Month’s Worth of Extra-Hot Days in Past Year


One of a few

Key findings from the report include:

• Over the last 12 months, human-caused climate change added an average of 26 days of extreme heat (on average, across all places in the world) than there would have been without a warmed planet. This report also demonstrates the crucial role of tracking and reporting on impacts in extreme heat assessment, and offers actionable solutions to heat risk.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Well I've put the air purifier away and switched the AC to "Fan Only".

So it's not hot everywhere any more.

Same. Finally relief from the heat.

Exceptionally early heat wave hits Finland

Finland has been experiencing unusually warm weather this May, prompting the Meteorological Institute to issue a heat warning on Monday.

Temperatures across large parts of the Nordic nation, the north of which lies above the Arctic Circle, are due to surge above 27C (81 F) starting on Tuesday, the institute said.

"This is probably the first time ever we have issued a heat wave warning in May", Iiris Viljamaa from the Finnish Meteorological Institute told AFP, adding that such alerts were normally issued in June at the earliest.

Scientists say that recurring heat waves are a clear marker of global warming and that these heat waves are set to become more frequent, longer and more intense.

Exceptionally hot weather until possible relief at the weekend

Winter 2023-2024 shattered records as Canada's warmest ever

Canada is among the fastest warming regions in the world due to climate change.

A new analysis of this past winter shows that it was the hottest ever recorded across Canada, beating out the previous hottest winter by the widest margin ever seen.

Environment and Climate Change Canada's Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin — Winter 2023/2024 was released by the agency this month. Tallying up the impacts of the season, the report finds that the average temperature from December 2023 to February 2024, across all of Canada, was 5.2°C above the 1961-1990 average

Zeke Hausfather - With May 2024 coming in as the warmest May on record, global temperatures have been at 1.63C above preindustrial levels over the past 12 months in
@CopernicusECMWF's ERA5.

A pretty sharp jump up from prior global temps we've seen, akin to the increase between 2010 and 2016:

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1796940514790678704

Originally Posted by Norton

Same. Finally relief from the heat.

No relief from spamdreth's spamming though.

AP analysis finds 2023 set record for US heat deaths, killing in areas that used to handle the heat

The death certificates of more than 2,300 people who died in the United States last summer mention the effects of excessive heat, the highest number in 45 years of records, according to an Associated Press analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. With May already breaking heat records, 2024 could be even deadlier.

“I just think in 20 years, you know, 2040 rolls around ... we’re going to look back at 2023 and say, man, that was cool,” Dessler said. “The problem with climate change is if it hasn’t pushed you over the edge yet, just wait.”

Zeke Hausfather - We saw a notable spike in global temperatures in the final week of the month. If they persist, it makes it more likely we may see the hottest June on record as well:

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1797658903297310756

Warming Mediterranean, hottest winter over the last 40 years

The Mediterranean Sea is getting warmer. In the winter just ended the average temperature of the Gulf of Naples recorded for the first time an increase of around 1°C compared to the average of the last 7 years, reaching 15.5°C. Rising sea surface temperatures were confirmed in almost all Italian seas, particularly in the Adriatic, with values one degree higher compared to the 2020-2022 average.

Global heat record broken for 12th straight month in May

May was the 12th consecutive month to set a monthly global average temperature record, and exceed a key Paris Agreement temperature target.

"While this sequence of record-breaking months will eventually be interrupted, the overall signature of climate change remains and there is no sign in sight of a change in such a trend."

Hottest May on record for West Palm Beach

May was the warmest month on record for West Palm Beach, according to the National Weather Service.

The average temperature in May was 84.2 degrees, beating the old record of 78.7 degrees. West Palm Beach has taken observations since 1888.

Four NWS climate stations in South Florida – Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Naples – all set record high average temperatures in May.

Miami’s average high in May was 83.7 degrees, beating the old record of 80.1 degrees. Ft. Lauderdale’s average high in May topped 85.1 degrees, beating the old record of 79.7 degrees. And Naple’s average high was 83.0 degrees, beating the old record of 78.8 degrees.

Heat dome's triple-digit temperatures fry US south-west

Two weeks before summer even officially starts, excessive heat warnings were in effect across parts of California, Nevada, Arizona and Texas. Forecasters see no relief for several more days.

Temperatures were predicted on Wednesday to reach 109F (42.7C) in Phoenix, 107F in Las Vegas, 110F in Palm Springs and 119F Death Valley, California.

Temperatures will be 20-30 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this time of year, according to the NWS.