Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Wagner Chief Says Russian Army ‘Fleeing’ Near Bakhmut

The head of Russia's private Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin on Friday said Moscow's conventional army was leaving its positions near the eastern Ukraine hotspot town of Bakhmut.


His comments came just after Russia's Defense Ministry announced it had redeployed forces around to take up stronger defensive positions north of Bakhmut.


"This is not called regrouping, this is fleeing," Prigozhin said in an audio statement posted on social media.


In a separate video message, Prigozhin said the Defense Ministry units "simply went fleeing" from positions around north and south of the city.


"The flanks are failing. The front is collapsing," the Kremlin ally said.


He said Ukrainian forces had captured positions at a reservoir and on tactical heights around Bakhmut.

Kyiv's forces had also taken control of a road leading to Bakhmut from another smaller town further east, Chasiv Yar, which Russian forces had controlled.


AFP could not verify his claims.


Earlier on Friday Ukraine claimed to have retaken swathes of land near Bakhmut, amid speculations over a spring offensive from Kyiv.


Russia said, however, it had repelled Ukrainian attacks along a 95-kilometer (60-mile) stretch of the eastern front near Bakhmut.


"Attempts by the Defense Ministry in the information field to sugarcoat the situation — it's leading and will lead to a global tragedy for Russia," Prigozhin said.


"For this reason, we must stop lying immediately," he added.


A rivalry between Prigozhin and conventional army chiefs has come to the surface during the fight for Bakhmut, the longest and bloodiest of the conflict.


Prigozhin has repeatedly claimed that the Russian Defense Ministry was refusing to deliver ammunition and has accused its chiefs in vitriolic statements.

Wagner Chief Says Russian Army 'Fleeing' Near Bakhmut - The Moscow Times

I really recommend that you follow the link to read this one, as many twitter posts are referenced over there. Lots of good info there. It is really starting to heat up right now in Ukraine, things are starting to happen all over the place...

The Russian Air Force appears to have had one of its worst days of the war in more than a year on Saturday. While details remain limited and are likely to change, it appears Russia lost two Mi-8 “Hip” helicopters, a Su-34 “Fullback” strike bomber, and a Su-35 “Flanker-E,” with no survivors. What makes all this especially troubling for the Russian Air Force, is that all these losses happened in its own country, in areas not too far from the border with Ukraine.All four aircraft came down in Bryansk Oblast, well within Russian territory opposite northeast Ukraine’s Chernihiv Oblast. Video shows one of the Mi-8s breaking up after what looks as if a missile hits it near the town of Klintsy, about 50 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border.

The Su-34 reportedly came down near the village of Istrovka, less than 30 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. A video below purportedly shows the jet flying very slowly before cutting to the burning wreckage.

Russia later confirmed that another Mi-8 and a Su-35 were shot down in the area as well, with all nine aboard the four downed aircraft killed.

Moreover, some have claimed at least one and possibly both Mi-8s shot down were extremely rare electronic warfare variants, the Mi-8MTPR-1. Derived from the Mi-8MTV-5-1 late-model series produced at Russia’s Kazan Helicopters plant, each carries a “Rychag” electronic warfare system designed to suppress enemy air defenses.

With 20 or fewer airframes in service, the Russians could well have lost a tenth of their helicopter EW fleet in a single day. You can read more about the fleet’s operations during the war in Ukraine in our detailed article from October, here.

Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomber (@fighter_bomber) claims Saturday’s losses are the most significant for the Russian Air Force since March 2022. This claim may be true when it comes to aerial kills, but Russia has lost more aircraft on the ground in a single instance in other attacks.

It’s not clear what shot down these aircraft at this time. Initial claims suggested friendly fire downed the aircraft in yet another case of fratricide by Russian air defenses that are on a hair trigger in that region specifically. But Russian authorities have since begun hunts for “saboteurs” involved in the shootdowns, potentially partisans or Ukrainian special forces armed with man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS). The war has increasingly come to Bryansk Oblast, be that the bizarre cross-border raid in March or a huge increasing Ukrainian drone attacks.


It’s possible that Ukrainian special forces and/or Russian partisans managed to ambush these aircraft with MANPADS. The helicopters, particularly if EW variants as alleged, would make lucrative and vulnerable targets during their jamming support flight patterns near the border. The fast jets, too, could be well within commandos’ reach if flying low en route to or returning from their targets.

Russian aircraft often fire their weapons while still in Russian airspace these days due to fear of being hit by Ukrainian air defenses. These profiles would have been tracked over time broadly known, making taking down these aircraft easier.

If not fratricide or MANPADS, Ukraine could have moved longer-ranged SAM systems much closer to the Russian border. Ukrainian air defenses are exceedingly valuable and stretched across the country to counter Russian cruise missile and drone strikes. Moving one or several systems for such a localized operation seems high-risk, but also high reward.

Ukraine has received newer systems from the west, including Patriot, IRST-T SM, Aspide, and more, while their stocks of Soviet-era missiles are thought to be rapidly dwindling. Still, using these systems against Russian aircraft in Russian airspace could jeopardize the relationship with the countries that donated them and their ongoing operations in Ukraine. Using a Soviet-era battery very near the border and using intelligence to rapidly 'detect-shoot-scoot' is still a clear possibility.

There's also the more limited, but plausible chance that Ukrainian Air Force fighters jumped the Russian aircraft in an ambush. Russian newspaper Kommersant reported both the Su-34 and Su-35 were preparing to fire missiles at targets near Chernihiv when both the jets and the helicopters took hits from Ukrainian "air-to-air missiles."

Still, such an operation would likely put their planes within the Russian air defense envelope. This is something the Ukrainian Air Force has avoided since the air defense situation stabilized, with both side's anti-air umbrellas reaching well into territory each controls. Even a low-level operation would have its risks near the border and would drastically reduced the reach of the fighter's air-to-air missiles.

There is the possibility that yet another new weapon has arrived in the hands of Ukraine's armed forces. A western beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile is a top ask of Ukraine's fighter pilots, one with an active radar seeker capable of long-range 'fire and forget' engagements without putting fighters at great risk. There has been talk of potential work to integrate such a weapon onto Ukrainian fighter aircraft. It would be a complex process, but there are potential workarounds, especially with the help of external surveillance assets. You can read more about this here.

Once again, there is no proof that this is indeed the case at this time, but we now live in a reality in which Ukraine's Soviet-era tactical aircraft are employing AGM-88s, JDAM-ERs, and now, it appears Miniature Air Launched Decoys. With no country yet willing to give Ukraine 4th generation fighters, significantly upgrading the fighters they have, possibly with western sensors, remains a possibility. It would be unlikely these weapons would be used against aircraft in Russian territory though for reasons already discussed.

Finally, there is the possibility of using the AGM-88 HARM to home in on the emissions of certain aerial assets. This would be an 'off label' use of the weapon, but not an unprecedented one. If these were ECM variants of the Mi-8, this could even be a more plausible tactic.

Saturday’s losses could seriously affect Russian Air Force operations against Ukraine. Airspace previously thought relatively safe appears to be anything but. What was something of a refuge — pairing distance from known threats with low-altitude flight profiles — could now be well within the threat envelope. Russian pilots may find that they must now account not only for the threat over territory in Ukraine they don't control and much of what they do, but for the now very real prospect of being shot down over Russia proper.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ir-own-borders

ussia has revealed that two of its colonels were killed in Bakhmut while fighting Ukrainian forces. In a rare announcement of combat losses, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the deaths of Colonel Vyacheslav Makarov of the 4th motorized rifle brigade and Colonel Yevgeny Brovko, deputy commander of the army corps for military-political work.

Both are said to have died "while repelling attacks."

Tass, a news agency closely affiliated with the Russian government, stated that Russian Ministry of Defense representative Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov confirmed the deaths.

Konashenkov said Makarov led his unit on the front line and claimed two Ukrainian attacks were repelled.

He added: "In the course of repelling the third attack, the brigade commander was seriously wounded and died during the evacuation from the battlefield."

According to Tass: "Brovko died heroically during the battle to repeal one of the attacks, he received multiple shrapnel wounds."

The Institute for the Study of War stated on Saturday, May 13 that Ukrainian forces have continued to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of small-scale gains by the country. It said a Russian military blogger claimed Ukrainian forces established positions on the outskirts of Kurdumivka just southwest of Bakhmut.

The military blogger also claimed Russian forces had been ambushed behind the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal in the area.

Russia has faced several setbacks in recent weeks with Ukraine claiming Moscow lost 48 artillery systems in two days.

Kremlin officials are also facing public criticism from Wagner mercenary founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. In a video shared with English subtitles on Twitter, Prigozhin contradicted Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson Konashenkov, who said troops were regrouping away from Bakhmut.

Instead, Prigozhin claimed that it was not a tactical retreat and that in fact, Russian troops were fleeing.

He added: "The Defense Ministry's attempts to smooth over the situation somehow in the media space are leading – and will lead – to a global tragedy for Russia. So stop lying immediately.

"If you've [Russian defense ministry] run away, set up new lines of defense. But what you've trained for that defense is not capable of holding that defense. They are simply nobodies. And so what has been happening recently and what I've been warning about for a long time, is coming to pass. And it's leading to a great tragedy for our country."

Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense for comment.

Russia Announces Deaths of Two Colonels in Bakhmut

Pretty good review here of some of the technology coming into play. Presenter seems to know
his stuff but you you have to get over his occasional odd laugh.

Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says


THE DISCORD LEAKS | Yevgeniy Prigozhin said he would tell Ukraine’s military where to attack Russian troops if they pulled their own forces back from the beleaguered city of Bakhmut, where Wagner mercenaries were taking heavy losses

By Shane Harris
and
Isabelle Khurshudyan



May 14, 2023 at 7:23 p.m. EDT

In late January, with his mercenary forces dying by the thousands in a fight for the ruined city of Bakhmut, Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin made Ukraine an extraordinary offer.

Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiersfrom the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreportedU.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.

Prigozhin has publicly feuded with Russian military commanders, who he furiously claimshave failed to equip and resupplyhis forces, which have provided vital support to Moscow’s war effort. But he is also an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who might well regard Prigozhin’s offer to trade the lives of Wagner fighters for Russian soldiers as a treasonous betrayal.

The leaked document does not make clearwhich Russian troop positions Prigozhin offered to disclose.

Two Ukrainian officials confirmed that Prigozhin has spoken several times to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, known as HUR. One official said that Prigozhin extended the offer regarding Bakhmut more than once, but that Kyiv rejected it because officials don’t trust Prigozhin and thought his proposals could have been disingenuous.

A U.S. official also cautioned that there are similar doubts in Washington about Prigozhin’s intentions. The Ukrainian and U.S. officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

In an interview with The Washington Post this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would not confirm the contacts with Prigozhin. “This is a matter of [military] intelligence,” he said. The Ukrainian leader also objected to airing classified information publicly and said he believed that the leaks had benefited Russia.

But there is no debating Prigozhin’s bitter frustration with the grinding fight in Bakhmut. He has complained, publicly and privately, that the Russian Defense Ministry has not given his fighters the ammunition and other resources they need to succeed. Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine, has seen some of the bloodiest fighting of the war. Over the past few months, in a grinding back and forth measured by city blocks, Ukrainian and Russian forces have taken steep casualties.

Prigozhin, who promised to take control of the city by May 9, in time for Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, has recently threatened publicly to pull his forces out of the fight.

Other leaked documents reveal Russian Defense Ministry officials privately wondering how to respond to Prigozhin’s criticism of the military’s performance and his demands for more resources, which they apparently conceded were not illegitimate grievances. The documents also speak to a power struggle between Prigozhin and top officials, including Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Against that tense backdrop, Prigohzin has carried on a secretrelationship with Ukrainian intelligence that, in addition to phone calls, includes in-person meetings with HUR officers in an unspecified country in Africa, one document states. Wagner forces provide security to several governments on the continent.

The leaked U.S. intelligence shows Prigozhin bemoaning the heavy toll that fighting has taken on his own forces and urging Ukraine to strike harder against Russiantroops.

According to one document, Prigozhin told a Ukrainian intelligence officer that the Russian military was struggling with ammunition supplies. He advised Ukrainian forces to push forward with an assault on the border of Crimea, which Russia has illegally annexed, whileRussian troop morale was low. The report also referred to other intelligence noting that Prigozhin was aware of plummeting morale among Wagner forces and that some of his fighters had balked at orders to deploy in the Bakhmut area under heavy fire, for fear of suffering more casualties.

The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment about Prigozhin’s communications with Ukraine.

In wartime, it is not unusual for opposing parties to maintain some form ofcommunication. And the documents don’t reveal Prigozhin’s intention intalking to his erstwhile foes in Ukraine. In an interview, a Ukrainian official characterized the contacts in the spirit of “keeping your friends close and your enemies closer.”

The documents also suggest that Kyiv suspects, or may know, that the Kremlin is aware of Prigozhin’s communications with Ukrainian intelligence, if not his secretnegotiations over Bakhmut.

One document, based on “sigint” — orintercepted communications — states that Ukraine’smilitary intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, “expected the Russians to use details of Prigozhin’s secret talks with the HUR and his meetings with their officers in Africa to make him appear to be a Ukrainian agent.” It doesn’t specify whether Budanov suspects Moscowmay already know that Prigozhin is talking to HUR officers.

When informed that U.S. intelligence documents revealed Prigozhin’s communications with Ukrainian intelligence, the mercenary commander appeared to make light of the situation. “Yes of course I can confirm this information, we have nothing to hide from the foreign special services. Budanov and I are still in Africa,” Prigohzin wrote on Sunday via his Telegram channel.

Prigohzin didn’t immediately respond to a question about his offer to disclose Russian troop positions in exchange for a Ukrainian pullback in Bakhmut.

Mary Ilyushina in Riga, Latvia, contributed to this report.

Is Prigozhin too powerful to give some tea to? What are the odds of him pointing his troops towards Moscow, eventually?

Originally Posted by pickel

What are the odds of him pointing his troops towards Moscow, eventually?

I think he will take a swan dive out of a window in Saint Petersburg first.

Originally Posted by bsnub

I think he will take a swan dive out of a window in Saint Petersburg first.

Most swans don't have their own private army, and popular support.

Originally Posted by pickel

Most swans don't have their own private army, and popular support.

He can't stay at the front forever, eventually he will have to return to Moscow or St. Petersburg, where the FSB still reigns supreme.

Prigozhin didn't get to where he is today by being dumb. I think he wouldn't say what he says, unless he knew he could get away with it.

Originally Posted by pickel

Prigozhin didn't get to where he is today by being dumb.

I beg to differ. Just by the shit he says, he proves to be dumb, just like most of the ruzzian officers attempting to prosecute this war. The execution of this war has been an epic level display of ruzzian incompetence and buffoonery, which is a big reason why they have been getting their teeth kicked in since last February. IMHO, when pootin feels he no longer has a use for Prigozhin he will be gone one way or another.

My money is on a high dive.

Excellent news!

The Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, sources familiar with the discussions said, as the White House comes under increasing pressure from members of Congress and allies to help Ukraine procure the planes amid intensifying Russian aerial attacks.

Administration officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Department officials who would normally be tasked with the paperwork to approve such third-party transfers have not been told to get to work, officials said.

A handful of European countries have a supply of the US-made F-16s, including the Netherlands, which has signaled a willingness to export some of them to Ukraine. But the US would have to approve that third party transfer because of the jets’ sensitive US technology.

While the US remains reluctant to send any of its own F-16s to Kyiv, US officials told CNN that the administration is prepared to approve the export of the jets to Ukraine if that is what allies decide to do with their supply.

National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby declined to comment specifically on the possibility of the US sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, but said broadly that the US has been forward-looking about “future capabilities” and needs. F-16s are “not on the agenda” at the G7, he said, though the aircraft could certainly come up on the sidelines of the summit.

US lawmakers and congressional staffers have joined in the F-16 lobbying campaign, urging the administration to provide the jets so that Ukraine can establish control over its skies.

“As a bipartisan group of lawmakers, we view the transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine as essential for providing Kyiv with the air support capability required to fully defend their nation against Russia’s unprovoked, illegal, and brutal invasion, and to make the territorial gains necessary to reclaim their country,” a group of Republican and Democratic lawmakers wrote in a letter to President Joe Biden on Wednesday that was obtained by CNN.

The issue is expected to be a subject of debate at the next NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July, officials said.

Another open question is where Ukrainian pilots would train on these F-16s. A spokesperson for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said earlier this week that the UK and the Netherlands were looking to form an “international coalition” not only to procure the jets for Ukraine but also to train Ukrainian pilots on the 4th generation fighters, which are more advanced than the Ukrainian fighter fleet.

In March, the US hosted two Ukrainian pilots at a military base in Tucson, Arizona to evaluate their skills using flight simulators and to assess how much time they would need to learn to fly various US military aircraft, including F-16s. But US has no plans as of now to expand that training, a defense official told CNN, despite Congress setting aside money in the 2023 budget for such training.

US allies with F-16s could conduct training for Ukrainian fighter pilots, or the aircraft’s manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, could carry out training as a private contractor. But the defense official said such an arrangement would likely need some level of US participation, even if it doesn’t require an official US sign off like the transfer of US weaponry overseas.

Ukrainians upping their lobbying campaign

Top Ukrainian officials have escalated their public lobbying campaign for US-made F-16s in recent months, arguing they need them urgently to defend against Russian missile and drone attacks.
Russia launched an “unprecedented” series of missile attacks on Kyiv on Thursday morning, a Ukrainian official said, just days after Russia launched a barrage of six hypersonic missiles near the capital aimed at destroying Ukraine’s Patriot air defense systems.

“A series of air attacks on Kyiv, unprecedented in their power, intensity and variety, continues,” said Serhii Popko, head of Kyiv’s civil and military administration.

Without the jets, Ukraine is having to improvise, officials say. Defense officials and congressional staffers told CNN that Ukrainian troops have in recent weeks used the US-made Patriot air defense system to shoot down at least one faraway Russian fighter jet. The Russian jets have largely been staying behind Russian defensive lines, making them difficult for Ukraine to target with shorter-range systems like NASAMs.

The Russian planes the Patriot targeted were on a bombing run to fire missiles against Ukrainian targets, US officials said, which Russia has been doing throughout the past year to maximize civilian casualties.

The officials said the Ukrainians were responsible for making their own firing decisions once the west provided the Patriot systems, noting it is up to the Ukrainians when and how to engage the Patriots to protect their people.

Sophisticated fighter jets would make it easier for Ukraine to target the Russian planes, some congressional staffers argue, without having to expend expensive Patriot munitions that were made to intercept ballistic missiles.

Some US officials are skeptical of that argument, however, and note that Russia has extensive anti-aircraft systems that could easily shoot down the F-16s. Ukraine has not been conducting many air missions with the fighter planes it already has for precisely that reason, officials have said.

Still, there is a belief in Kyiv that with enough public pressure, the Ukrainians can eventually secure weapons systems that were once deemed a red line by the west. HIMARS, battle tanks, and the Patriot battery were all once considered off-limits – all are now either in country or heading there soon.

While the UK does not have any F-16s of its own, the British government appears to have done a U-turn on the issue over the last several months. In January, a British government spokesperson told reporters that the UK believes that the jets “are extremely sophisticated and take months to learn how to fly. Given that, we believe it is not practical to send those jets into Ukraine.”

On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kyiv and London were “actively moving forward” on a plan to procure them.

“We need F-16s,” Andriy Yermak, head of the office of the Ukrainian president. “And I am grateful to our allies for their decision to work in this direction, including training our pilots.”

F-16 jets: US signals to allies it won't block their export of F-16 jets to Ukraine | CNN Politics

Kyiv is demanding F-16s and 2 Ukrainian pilots just proved they can master the jet 4 times faster than the Pentagon thought possible: report


Two Ukrainian pilots proved they can master the American-made F-16 fighter jets in just four months — more than four times faster than the Pentagon previously predicted — in a performance that is likely to ratchet up the growing pressure on the Biden Administration to send the lightweight warplanes to Ukraine.

Yahoo News on Thursday obtained and published an internal US Air Force assessment that detailed the F-16 training two Ukrainian pilots underwent at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona, in late February and early March. Over the course of eleven and a half total hours in nine separate simulations, the Ukrainian airmen outperformed US expectations in their quick ability to learn the ins and outs of the aircraft, according to the document.

The Department of Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Four experienced US air force instructors assessed the Ukrainian pilots and determined the pilots could perform several "relatively technical" maneuvers, including landing after losing an engine and withstanding mock attacks, Yahoo News reported, citing the assessment.

The Ukrainian airmen received no official training on the F-16 flight simulator beyond a brief introduction to the aircraft before their training, the document said. The two men were already qualified to operate a MiG-29 and Su-27 respectively, both Soviet-era fighter jets that comprise the majority of Ukraine's remaining air force, according to the outlet.

In a February Congressional hearing, Colin Kahl, the outgoing US undersecretary of defense for policy said training Ukrainian soldiers on F-16s would take approximately 18 months — the same amount of time it would require to export the warplanes to Ukraine.

The long projected training time was one of the reasons the Pentagon has frequently cited as cause for not giving Ukraine the much-desired planes, for which they have been jockeying for months. Ukrainian defense leaders say the F-16s are necessary to shoot down Russian strike fighters that are dropping bombs.

But the report published by Yahoo on Thursday deduces that four months is a "realistic training timeline" for Ukrainian pilots to undergo training on the aircraft.

The internal document was also shared with several NATO allies who deal in the warplanes, the outlet reported.

Meanwhile, European leaders this week, including top officials in the UK and Germany, continued to pressure the Biden administration to make a decision on sending the F-16s.
On Thursday, the Biden administration suggested it would not stop other NATO allies from exporting the American-made aircraft to Ukraine, CNN reported.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...-report-2023-5

^^ That is four months for a fully trained fighter pilot to get a type rating on an F-16. It is not the time required to train soeone on fast jets, which is somewhat longer.

Much will depend on the radar and rwr fitted to the export version of the F-16 and which missiles are fitted. They will need to have at least amraam-C to go against the Russians. They will also need to form tactics to avoid the Russian R37 without aborting their mission.

I've read a few articles in the press recently that clearly lack the knowledge of modern air warfare and detection ranges.

Originally Posted by Troy

They will also need to form tactics to avoid the Russian R37 without aborting their mission.

Done and dusted. You once again give the ruzzians too much credit...

Russia’s Best Missile Can Hit Ukrainian Jets From 80 Miles Away. But Ukrainian Pilots Know How To Dodge.


Ukrainian air force pilots have worked out methods for dodging the Russian air force’s far-flying Vympel R-37M air-to-air missiles, according to one Ukrainian pilot.


“We created different tactics for how to avoid this missile—and that’s why it’s not so succesful against our jets,” Ukrainian Mikoyan MiG-29 pilot “Juice” .

The R-37M isn’t scoring a lot of hard kills, according to Juice. But it is forcing Ukrainian pilots to break away from their planned flight paths in order to perform evasive maneuvers.

That could count as a “soft kill.” Even when it doesn’t shoot them down, the R-37M might be preventing Ukrainian pilots from completing their missions.

It’s no secret the Russian air force has failed to achieve air superiority in the sky over Ukraine. Hamstrung by inflexible procedures, desperately short of precision weaponry and battered by stiff Ukrainian air-defenses, the Russian air arm at best is holding its own, despite a 10-to-one numerical advantage in fighters and attack jets compared with the Ukrainian air force.

The three regiments flying the Russian air force’s best interceptor—the twin-engine, two-seat Mikoyan MiG-31BM—are the rare winners. MiG-31 crews, flying high-altitude defensive patrols along the ever-shifting front lines and firing the powerful R-37M, reportedly have shot down several Ukrainian jets.

The Russians’ defensive patrols “have proven highly effective against Ukrainian attack aircraft and fighters, with the MiG-31BM and R-37M long-range air-to-air missile being especially problematic,” Justin Bronk, Nick Reynolds and Jack Watling wrote in a study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.

The MiG-31 flies higher, faster and farther than the Ukrainian air force’s best Sukhoi Su-27 interceptors. The heavyweight Russian fighter can fly as high as 60,000 feet out to 450 miles and dash at Mach 2.5 for short periods.

From their lofty perch, MiG-31 crews can search for targets with the jet’s Zaslon radar and fire a single, underbelly R-37M at targets as far as 200 miles away, although the missile works best at ranges no farther than 80 miles. A Ukrainian Su-27 by contrast can fire a Vympel R-27 missile no farther than 50 miles.

“The VKS has been firing up to six R-37Ms per day during October,” Bronk, Reynolds and Watling wrote, “and the extremely high speed of the weapon, coupled with very long effective range and a seeker designed for engaging low-altitude targets, makes it particularly difficult to evade.”

But not impossible to evade. Juice didn’t explain how Ukrainian pilots are dodging the R-37M shots, but it’s possible to guess.

For very long range shots farther than 80 miles, a MiG-31 crew detects a target with its own radar and fires the R-37M in the target’s direction. The missile immediately goes ballistic before diving down at six times the speed of sound.

For shots inside 80 miles, the missile flies a flatter trajectory at somewhat slower speed. In either case, at a distance no farther than 20 miles from its target, the missile switches on its own radar seeker and homes in.

But it’s possible to spoof the R-37M’s onboard 9B-1103M-15 seeker. The 9B-1103M-15 like many modern radars works by interpreting the Doppler shift of the radar energy bouncing between the radar and a target.

To understand Doppler shift, imagine a spring. Squeeze the spring, and its coils get closer. Stretch the spring, and the coils are farther apart. Doppler shift is the movement of the “coils” of electromagnetic energy between a radar and a target.

To avoid cluttering up a pilot’s screen, a Doppler radar has a “velocity gate.” It ignores slowly-moving or stationary objects such as trees and buildings. To disappear from Doppler radar, you could try to reduce your velocity relative to the radar.

What that means, for a fighter pilot, is flipping upside down, pulling back hard on the stick and diving. Pop some radar-foiling chaff for good measure and you just might trick the incoming missile. “Notching” is the term for this tactic.

Notching is a tried-and-true method of evading long-range missiles. It works best when the evading pilot has some altitude to spare. For Ukrainian pilots, who often fly at low level to avoid Russia’s ground-based air-defenses, diving in order to notch might not always be feasible. A perpendicular turn is a possible substitute.

But notching only works when you know the missile is incoming. A Ukrainian pilot’s radar-warning receiver should register the R-37M’s seeker once that seeker activates, 20 or so miles out. That should give the Ukrainian a few seconds to dive or turn.

If the pilot isn’t attentive to his RWR, he won’t have time to maneuver. “If you’re not aware of the launch of this missile, you’re dead,” Juice said.

It’s possible to imagine Russian MiG-31 crews, patrolling along the Russia-Ukraine border and lobbing R-37Ms at any Ukrainian jets they detect. It’s equally possible to imagine Ukrainian crews diving or turning to avoid most of the missiles.

Even when the R-37Ms miss, all that hard maneuvering still has the effect of disrupting Ukrainian sorties. “Sometimes we are forced to cease our offensive missions,” Juice said.

Skip to 9:11...



https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=2314ce057efc

Is there any more news on the supposed bunker buster bomb that blew a deep underground bunker full of NATO and Ukrainian high command? Or just more propaganda. Its getting harder to find a credible news source on the internet these days.

^^ Once again, you are reading what you want into artcles you find. I said without having to abort their mission.

The mig-31 perched in the skies above and the su-57 flying within Russian airspace are a real threat with the R-37M. The only good news is the missile appears to be more for long range against non maneuvering targets. It would be better if the datalink frequency could be jammed to remove the seeker off radar guidance, than to have to perform a vertical notch maneuver. That way the Ukraine planes could carry out their mission. They might even have a chance of getting a kill if they had the amraam-c. It would take a specially planned mission and good knowledge of the Russian radar on the two aircraft types.

Originally Posted by Troy

The mig-31 perched in the skies above and the su-57 flying within Russian airspace are a real threat with the R-37M.

That maybe true, but the fact that Ukraine shot down both a su34 and a su35 over Belarus recently may indicate that due to the patriot, they may not be able to get as close to be border these days. There are also unconfirmed reports that a bomber has also been shot down today by the patriot.

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

Its getting harder to find a credible news source on the internet these days.

That's wise words on a friday night.

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

Is there any more news on the supposed bunker buster bomb that blew a deep underground bunker full of NATO and Ukrainian high command? Or just more propaganda. Its getting harder to find a credible news source on the internet these days.

No, probably because it's a load of bollocks.

Did Russian Kinzhal Missile Take Out 'NATO Command Center' in Ukraine?

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

supposed bunker buster bomb that blew a deep underground bunker full of NATO and Ukrainian high command?

Jeazus you need to start recognizing a pattern in the propaganda. The ruzzian MOD and the kremlin tell lies in a certain way in order to push their narrative. It would be their wet dream to bomb a bunker full of NATO and Ukrainian generals.

Way out of the level of capability they have exhibited throughout the course of this war. In short, it is just more horseshit propaganda, as Harry said.

The United States has suffered from a deliberate fuzziness in formulating its objectives in the Russian war in Ukraine. Flaccid phrases like “helping Ukraine defend itself” or, even worse, “putting Ukraine in the best possible position for negotiations” are either meaningless or insipid. Bureaucratic mental fog is masquerading as artful policy, and it is dangerous. Strategy is the matching of means to ends. In war it is easy to become obsessed with action rather than purpose, and thereby to fall into Nietzsche’s famous description of the most common human stupidity: forgetting what one intended to do in the first place.

Ukraine knows how it defines victory: the pre-2014 borders cleansed of the invader, its exiles and refugees returned, its society and economy rebuilt, membership in the European Union and NATO attained, and some measure of justice for Russian rapists, torturers, and murderers secured. Similarly, we know how the Russians define victory: a Ukraine broken and severed from the West, much of its territory annexed; a Europe in disarray that resumes its addiction to cheap natural resources and business opportunities in Moscow; and the reconstruction of much of the old Russian imperial state.

We should want victory as Ukraine defines it. But to achieve it, the West must not only aid in the defeat of Russia—it must convince Russia that it has been defeated.

A Russia that prevails would be a Russia even further empowered to meddle in Europe and to expand its influence with unlimited violence; a Russia that will have learned that it can commit slaughter and atrocities with impunity; a Russia whose ambitions will grow with success. A Russian victory would, as well, teach the world that the West—including the United States—lacks the resolve, despite its wealth, to follow through on its commitments, offering Beijing an encouraging lesson.

Conversely, Russian defeat would put Beijing—already somewhat nervous about its partner’s incompetence and wild statements—on the defensive, consolidate the Western alliance, and help preserve some of the essential norms of decent behavior in those parts of the world most important to us. Above all, it would block the Russian imperial project for good, because without Ukraine, as the historian Dominic Lieven has noted, Russia cannot be an empire.

Russian defeat does not require a march on Moscow (rarely a good idea in the past), and it does not require a Russia that is defenseless and devastated (impossible without World War III). Rather, it will be achieved inside the heads of Russia’s leaders and population. Russia must be convinced that the military instrument, and its deployment in large-scale war, will inevitably fail, and it must realize that Ukraine is permanently and completely lost.

Such things have happened before. Israel did not occupy Arab capitals in 1967, but that war caused the Arab states to abandon the notion that they could annihilate the Jewish state through conventional means. The 1973 war forced the conclusion that even limited conventional conflict was too hazardous to attempt.

In Vietnam and Afghanistan, the United States was defeated without losing a single battle. We became convinced that fighting was both futile and painful, that our enemies were implacable and unbeatable, and that the price paid in blood, treasure, and attention was in no way worth the cost and never would be.

Carl von Clausewitz, the German philosopher of war, said that war is a trial of moral and physical forces through the medium of the latter. Ukraine must not only achieve battlefield success in its upcoming counteroffensives; it must secure more than orderly Russian withdrawals following cease-fire negotiations. To be brutal about it, we need to see masses of Russians fleeing, deserting, shooting their officers, taken captive, or dead. The Russian defeat must be an unmistakably big, bloody shambles.

Russia’s theories of victory in Ukraine have collapsed one by one. Putin began by believing that the country would fall in a week; then that it would succumb to a month or two of hard fighting; then that Europe would abandon it during a cold winter without Russian gas; then that Ukraine could be bludgeoned into submission by attacking its cities. The final theory of victory—that the West does not have the heart to pour vast resources into Ukraine indefinitely—needs to be disproved as well, because there is nothing beyond that.

To that end, with the utmost urgency, the West should give everything that Ukraine could possibly use, including long-range missiles to break for good the 11-mile Kerch bridge between the mainland and Crimea, and cluster munitions to devastate Russian fighting vehicles and infantry. Breaking the Russian army, as we have, by spending only a small fraction of our defense budget and none of our blood is an astounding strategic bargain.

Russians must, moreover, conclude that Ukraine—formerly, in their view, a pseudo-state containing “cousins” or “little brothers”—is gone forever. That means speedy accession to the EU and NATO, but also a deep Western commitment to rebuilding Ukraine economically and, most important, arming it to the teeth for years to come.

The paltering of the administration about giving our superabundant F-16s to Ukraine is foolish and shortsighted. These jets might not make a difference on the battlefield two months from now, but the knowledge that several hundred of them are in the pipeline for the next five years would have profound symbolic importance. We should be talking about how we will rebuild Ukraine’s armed forces, the West’s largest, most combat-tested, and in some ways most determined army.

The West needs an aggressive information campaign to drive home the reality of Russian defeat. Russians need to be reminded that their faltering economy is only a tenth the size of the EU’s; that they cannot build and deploy a modern tank; that their latest high-performance jet, the Su-57, will be outnumbered by the F-35s of the four small Nordic states; that their generals are superannuated and incompetent; that their high command is indifferent to their men’s lives; that their equipment is inferior to that of Ukraine; and that their logistics are rotted by graft and corruption.

Information warfare should be reinforced by continued sanctions, whose aim is not so much to win the war as to cripple Russian war-making potential for the long run by depressing the economy and forcing Russia to make do with inferior components and spare parts.

Russia must be isolated politically and psychologically as well, thereby playing on the country’s historical ambivalence about the West, represented in its two capitals: St. Petersburg, facing Europe, and Moscow, facing Asia. But Russian literature, art, culture, and political practice are rooted in its relationship with Europe. The time may come—years or, more likely, decades from now—when a postimperial Russia will turn westward again.

This is all doable. In fact, it has happened on a smaller scale before. Russian leaders became convinced in the late 1970s and early ’80s that they could not keep up with advances in Western military technology, even as they fought and lost the war in Afghanistan. The Gorbachev upheaval was in part the result of this realization.

But our expectations today should be measured. Unfortunately, a defeated Russia will still be malevolent, angry, and vengeful; it will probably still be ruled by the “vertical of power,” the hard men from the security ministries; it will be suffused with lawlessness and murder; and it will engage in subversion, political warfare, and malicious behavior of all kinds. But who would not prefer to deal with a thousand troll farms and front organizations than one Mariupol? And this Russia would be far less dangerous to us, far less useful to China, far less likely to raise monstrous new threats in the years to come.

The key to this strategy is courage. We must conquer our fears of Russian threats and escalation, of its nuclear bravado, and even of Russian collapse. We must be strategic and shrewd, but nothing can be accomplished without courage. In the words of John Paul II—the unarmed, lone old man who did so much to bring Soviet communism to its knees—“Never doubt, never tire, and never become discouraged. Be not afraid.”

It’s Not Enough for Ukraine to Win. Russia Has to Lose. - The Atlantic

What is the latest on Bakhmut? Conflicting reports in the news.

Originally Posted by Stretchy

What is the latest on Bakhmut? Conflicting reports in the news.

Yes

Some say that the strongest millitary power in Europe (Ukraine) has been defeated by a private army (Wagner).

Some say it hasn't happened yet.