Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Originally Posted by Norton

Cost aside, nearly 100 trained troops needed to man a single system so will take months to get the systems operational.

I take it its not really kept pace with modern computer developments, jesus or are the missiles really heavy

Originally Posted by malmomike77

I take it its not really kept pace with modern computer developments, jesus or are the missiles really heavy

Lot of moving parts mate. Drivers, maintenance guys, command and control guys, launcher placement guys and a few semi useless commissioned officers.

Originally Posted by Norton

Lot of moving parts mate. Drivers, maintenance guys, command and control guys, launcher placement guys and a few semi useless commissioned officers.

erm

Originally Posted by Norton

The system is highly mobile and has very sophisticated electronics to prevent detection.

aside from the group of 100 assorted blokes

Originally Posted by Norton

a few semi useless commissioned officers.

Ruperts

Originally Posted by Loy Toy

With the decision by the US, and to supply Ukraine with more affective weapons, do you believe this will make any difference to achieving a quicker end to this conflict?

Not really. Will provide a morale boost to the Ukraine but this war is far from over and won't be until either Russia or Ukraine/NATO find it politically impossible to continue. At the moment, neither side is in a rush so the carnage on both sides will continue.

Shaping the battle space for the coming winter offensive.

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine is stepping up efforts to isolate and degrade Russian forces in and around the strategically vital city of Melitopol, ahead of what is widely expected to be the next major phase of the war, a Ukrainian offensive to drive Russian forces from southern Ukraine.

Kyiv has been using long-range precision missile strikes, sabotage missions and targeted assassinations to home in on the city, which lies about 40 miles behind the front lines in the Zaporizhzhia region. Melitopol is known as the gateway to Crimea because of its location at the crossroads of two major highways and a crucial rail line linking Russia to that peninsula and other territory it occupies in southern Ukraine.

A bridge in Melitopol across the Molochna River was sabotaged Monday night — an act that both Ukrainian and Russian officials attributed to Kyiv’s forces — with video showing that two pillars supporting the span had been blown up. The bridge’s destruction compromised a key Russian supply route to Melitopol from the south.

Both Ukrainian and Russian officials have acknowledged the recent Ukrainian strikes and attempts to hit Russian command centers, ammunition depots and supply routes in Melitopol, whose prewar population was about 150,000. The aftermaths of some of the recent attacks have been captured on video broadcast on social media by Russian soldiers.

It is not clear whether the strikes were intended as a prelude to an offensive or a distraction as Ukrainian forces prepare to attack the Russians from a different direction. But military analysts described them as significant and said they fit with a pattern of Ukraine’s using precision missiles to strike Russian logistical targets.

Melitopol is a key hub, and regaining control over it could help Ukraine’s forces take back not only the full Zaporizhzhia region, but also the rest of neighboring Kherson. That could then potentially even give them a path to drive Russian forces all the way back to Crimea, which the Russians had controlled prior to the invasion.

“All this hangs completely on Melitopol,” Oleksiy Arestovych, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said over the weekend. “If Melitopol falls, the entire Russian defense up to Kherson collapses, and the Ukrainian armed forces jump right to the border with Crimea.”

Since being routed in northeastern Ukraine and forced to retreat from the southern port city of Kherson, Russian forces have fought to fortify defensive positions across a front line that stretches for hundreds of miles. Ukrainian forces continue to advance slowly in the south, but the most intense fighting has been in the east, where Russian forces are trying to seize the city of Bakhmut and Moscow continues to hurl soldiers into the battle.

“It seems that the enemy has an infinite human resource,” Volodymyr Nazarenko, a deputy commander in a Ukrainian National Guard unit fighting in the area, told Ukrainian media. “The front line areas of Bakhmut have been completely destroyed. The rest of the city is under constant enemy fire, the enemy is destroying the city.”

At the same time, Belarus — Ukraine’s neighbor to the north and the Kremlin’s closest ally — ordered a surprise assessment of the combat readiness of its armed forces. Russia used Belarus as a jumping-off point for its invasion in February, and there have been persistent concerns that it could do so again, possibly with Belarus’s own military joining in.

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine said on Tuesday that it had not detected units on the border with Belarus that were capable of carrying out an invasion at this time.

“We will observe how the situation develops, including how close these units will come to the border with Ukraine,” Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for the border guard, said at a news conference.

Ukraine also braced for another large-scale assault on its energy infrastructure, with President Volodymyr Zelensky warning the nation that more strikes are likely.

“The absence of large-scale missile strikes only means that the enemy is preparing for them and can strike at any time,” he said.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal of Ukraine was in Paris on Tuesday for a one-day summit that drew more than $1 billion in short-term international commitments to help Ukrainians survive the winter by repairing electricity, heating, water and health care infrastructure devastated by the Russian bombardment.

“The whole country is forced to live in conditions when electricity is available only few hours a day,” he said. “And all this happens in wintertime with subzero temperatures.”

Mr. Zelensky said blackouts are the “last hope” of the Russians as they flail on the battlefield. The Ukrainian military has made it clear that it does not want to give Russian forces time to regroup and recover, hitting Russian positions across occupied Ukraine. Some of the most notable strikes have been around Melitopol.

Melitopol was one of the first cities that Russian forces seized early in the war, an essential piece of their coveted land bridge along the Sea of Azov, linking the two areas of Ukraine they or their proxies had captured in 2014: Crimea, in the south, and parts of the Donbas region in the east.

Capturing the city and its transportation hubs would sever that bridge and make it harder to resupply and reinforce Russian forces in southern Ukraine, but taking it is a tall order. The nearest terrain held by Ukrainian forces is about 40 miles north of Melitopol.

On Sunday, the Melitopol Christian Church — which the city’s exiled mayor said was being used as a Russian base — had gone up in flames. The mayor, Ivan Fedorov, alluded to the episode on Sunday as “fireworks in the east of Melitopol.”

Videos released by the Russian state news media of rescuers at the scene indicated that even as Russian forces worked to extinguish the blaze at the church, they were still recovering from explosions in and around the city over the weekend. Residents reported at least 10 large explosions on Saturday night and Sunday morning, although it was not clear whether some of those were Russian air defenses at work.

In one instance, several blasts hit a hotel and restaurant complex on the outskirts of the city, according to Ukrainian officials and video of the aftermath. Mr. Fedorov said that the facility, known as the Hunter’s Halt, was being used by Russian intelligence and that dozens of Russian soldiers had been killed, with hundreds more wounded and evacuated to Crimea for medical care.

His full account could not be independently confirmed. But Evgeny Balitsky, the Russian-appointed head of the part of the Zaporizhzhia region that Russia claimed to annex in September, confirmed the strike at the complex, saying that the facility had been hit while “peaceful citizens” were eating on Saturday evening.

He said that two people had been killed and 10 injured, and that the recreation center had been destroyed. Video from the scene showed several victims, with the complex engulfed in flames.

Last week, the Kremlin-appointed deputy head of Melitopol survived an assassination attempt, Russian state media reported — the latest in a string of attacks on Moscow’s proxy administrators in occupied Ukraine. An explosive detonated near the Melitopol official, Nikolai Volyk, as he was leaving his home, according to the state-run News agency RIA Novosti.

On Tuesday afternoon, a loud explosion was reported in the center of the city, Mr. Federov said in a statement. The explosion was followed by sustained gunfire, he said. It was not immediately clear what might have been targeted, as Russian forces immediately blocked roads in the area.

Natalia, a retiree who lives in Melitopol, said she started to see a large influx of Russian soldiers in the southern city in late November. They took over schools, she said, and she saw Russian soldiers moving in weapons and heavy artillery to positions in and around the city.

“So many of them everywhere,” said Natalia, who asked that her last name be withheld out of concern for her safety.

Natalia also has a house outside the city and said she had watched as Russian planes and helicopters flew so low over the area that she could see “Z” painted on them, referring to the letter that has become a symbol of support for the invasion.

In early December, Russian forces nearly closed all access in and out of the city, said Mr. Fedorov, the exiled mayor.

In a hunt for partisans — guerrilla fighters and others working for the Ukrainian war effort — Russian forces have set up several roadblocks and are searching cars and people, Mr. Fedorov said.

After each explosion, Mr. Federov said, Russian forces go house to house. If they find any Ukrainian symbols or weapons, even hunting guns, they take the residents in for questioning and detain some of them at length.

Many prisoners, he said, are now being forced to help dig trenches around Melitopol.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/w...melitopol.html

Ukraine has ratcheted up its campaign against a branch of the Eastern Orthodox church with ties to Russia. On the order of President Volodymyr Zelensky, seven senior clerics from the Russian Orthodox church will have their assets seized and face bans on a range of economic and legal activities.

During his nightly video address on Sunday, the Ukrainian president said “by decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, sanctions were applied against seven people,” adding that his administration is “doing everything to ensure that the aggressor state does not have a single string of Ukrainian society to pull.”

According to Reuters, the new penalties mean that the seven clerics will have “their assets seized and are subject to a ban on a range of economic and legal activities as well as a de facto travel ban.”

The vast majority of Ukrainians belong to Eastern Orthodox churches, with many worshiping in parishes that take direction from the Moscow Patriarchate. On December 1, Zelensky announced that Kiev would attempt to expel all religious institutions with ties to Russia, arguing the move would make “it impossible for religious organizations affiliated with centers of influence in the Russian Federation to operate in Ukraine.”

The president went on the claim that the Russian Orthodox Church poses a threat to Ukrainian culture, saying “we will never allow anyone to build an empire inside the Ukrainian soul.” He additionally denounced Ukrainians who continue to attend the allegedly Russia-controlled parishes as succumbing to “the temptation of evil.”

Kiev has conducted a series of raids on Russian Orthodox parishes and claims to have uncovered clerics attempting to subvert the Ukrainian government, though has provided little evidence to support its assertions. Nonetheless, Kiev sanctioned 10 top clerics of the church last week, suggesting they threatened ”the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”

Kiev Seizes Assets of Russian Orthodox Clerics | The Libertarian Institute

Who will win in Ukraine? It may be whoever runs out of ammo last

he war in Ukraine has turned into a lethal artillery duel and whichever side can produce the most ammunition for the big guns on the battlefield could have the edge in the conflict, U.S. officials and military analysts say.


In its scramble for firepower, Russia is using ammunition that is half a century old and dismantling breast pumps and kitchen appliances to get microchips it needs for tanks and precision-guided weapons.


Ukraine, for its part, is relying on the United States and other NATO allies to keep up the flow of arms and ammunition, but those stockpiles have been stretched 10 months into the war.


Both militaries are burning through thousands of artillery rounds a day and are facing challenges to secure more supplies to keep up the fight. The struggle for ammunition pits Russia’s defense industry — largely isolated by Western sanctions — against Ukraine’s war-damaged economy and its supporters in NATO.

To fuel its war effort, Russia is now drawing on stockpiles of 40- to 50-year-old ammunition, including 152 mm artillery rounds that are in short supply, four current U.S. officials and one former official said.

The former official said Russia has been reduced to using less sophisticated “stupid bombs,” and short of resorting to nuclear weapons is nearly depleted of capabilities.


It remains unclear exactly how many artillery rounds and other ammunition Russia has left in its stockpiles, and how quickly its defense industry can churn out new ammunition. Top U.S. intelligence officials repeatedly have asserted that Russian forces are using up ammunition faster than it can be produced, but have not offered estimates about Ukraine’s supplies.


Military experts disagree on when Russia might run out of ammunition, with estimates ranging from a few months to more than a year.


Russia’s “defense industrial base is still intact. It’s under a lot of strain from sanctions, but it’s still intact,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corp. think tank.


“Russia is trying to grab hold of the reins of their defense industry right now and make it produce more.”

Russian factories are increasing production, moving to multiple shifts and bringing additional capacity online, said Paul Schwartz, a research scientist focusing on Russia’s military at the Center for Naval Analyses think tank.


But it will be difficult to produce ammunition at levels sufficient to keep up with how much is being used on the battlefield, he said. U.S. defense officials said last month that Russia is burning through a staggering 20,000 rounds a day, and Ukraine about 4,000 to 7,000 a day.


“It’ll be a challenge for them,” Schwartz said. “I would rather be in Ukraine’s position with the full backing of the NATO alliance.”

Unlike more advanced weapons, artillery ammunition requires no sophisticated electronics that are subject to Western sanctions. But Russia’s machine industry has declined over the years, and it’s not clear if major increases in production would require more efficient, higher quality machinery from outside the country, according to Schwartz.


Military experts said securing enough explosive accelerant to fill the artillery shells could also present a potential bottleneck for ambitious production plans.


It’s an open question how the contest over ammunition production will play out, Massicot and other experts said.


“This is now a clash of sustainment and sustainment systems,” she said. “How much longer can Ukraine’s supporters dig deep, and keep supporting at current levels? And then on the Russian side, how well can their defense industrial base really perform?”


When Russian forces invaded Feb. 24, Ukraine found itself in a vulnerable position when it came to artillery ammunition supplies, due to a damaging sabotage campaign over several years.


From 2014 to 2018, six explosions destroyed more than 210,00 tons of ammunition in Ukraine, including crucial 152 mm shells and rockets, according to a study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.

“That was a major constraint on Ukraine’s capability,” said Nick Reynolds, one of the authors of the report and a research analyst for land warfare at the institute.


Ukraine is able to produce a portion of its artillery ammunition for Russian-origin howitzers, though Russian attacks on the country’s power grid and infrastructure have hampered its industry. Ukraine has to rely on its foreign partners for shells that fit the new artillery pieces provided by NATO members, the experts said, and Eastern European neighbors have scoured their warehouses for Soviet-era shells.


Keeping up the flow of arms and ammunition to Ukraine has stretched NATO member stockpiles, prompting calls for a major increase in ammunition production among Western defense companies.


Industry executives, however, say it will take time to ramp up production to a wartime tempo for conventional weapons that were seen until recently as largely irrelevant for future wars.


Given the amount of time needed to prepare for such a major change in course, Reynolds said, it took too long for NATO governments and defense firms to make plans for increasing production.


“Those conversations do seem to be happening. But they are happening very slowly. They needed to happen very quickly after the war started,” he said.

Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth said this month that the American defense industry will expand artillery ammunition production from 14,000 155mm shells a month to 20,000 by the spring and 40,000 by 2025.


Last week, the White House announced another $275 million in military aid to Ukraine, including ammunition. The U.S. already has provided more than a million rounds of artillery ammo. The Biden administration has proposed a $37.7 billion spending bill for Ukraine that it hopes will win approval in the current lame duck Congress. Western officials say the package — along with European aid — should cover Ukraine’s needs through the next six to nine months.


Ukraine also continues to ask for more advanced and longer-range systems, including ATACM long-range missiles, F-16 fighter jets and Abrams tanks. While the administration has not decided to provide any of these systems, U.S. officials say they have not ruled out providing these or other similar weapons in the future if they conclude that Ukraine needs them for the current fight.


Colin Kahl, under secretary of defense for policy, acknowledged recently that the massive flow of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine has strained U.S. and allied supplies.


“There’s no question that it’s put pressure on our own stockpiles,” Kahl said at a virtual meeting of George Washington University’s Project for Media and National Security. “It’s put pressure on our own industrial base. That’s been true of our allies.”


The vast amount of weapons and ammunition expended in Ukraine has prompted Pentagon leaders to reexamine America’s contingency plans and stockpiles in the case of future conflicts, and to consider whether “we’ve done the right math,” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council Summit in Washington last week. Concerned that the U.S. has “vastly underestimated the amount of ammunition” the U.S. has stockpiled for the next war, Milley directed the Joint Staff to review whether the U.S. is ready to face conflicts in more than one area at a time, according to a senior U.S. military official.


Who will win in Ukraine? It may be whoever runs out of ammo last

Originally Posted by Norton

The US position on Patriot has gone from an absolute no to what now appears a yes. A political rather than practical action imo. Cost aside, nearly 100 trained troops needed to man a single system so will take months to get the systems operational.

I find that surprising given that we had about six batteries installed over a weekend, and you hardly ever saw anyone on site once they were in place.

But I thought they were such good friends?

Beijing has reportedly banned the supply of military-grade processors to Russia produced by Chinese company Loongson, in a potential setback to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.

Sanctions imposed since the start of Vladimir Putin's invasion have driven out many western companies from Russia and forced Moscow to look for new suppliers for crucial electronic components, including those for its weapons.

Russian manufacturers had been testing Chinese-made processors to replace those produced by companies like Intel, which had suspended deliveries, the Russian business newspaper Kommersant reported.

But a source from Russia's ministry of digital development told the outlet that the Chinese government had banned the sale and export of the processors due to their strategic importance for China's own military.

While Russian companies "were not very dependent on Chinese processors" they had "hoped to switch to Loongson solutions," the source told the newspaper.

Another source told the paper that the Chinese government had banned the export of Loongson processors to all countries, including Russia. "The best chipsets in China are used in the military-industrial complex, which is the main reason why they are not available for foreign markets," they said.

Marina Miron, a research fellow from the Defense Studies Department at King's College London (KCL) said any export ban by China will further affect Russia's ability to compete in the technological sector, forcing it to look for alternatives and increase its domestic capacity to produce microchips.

"That said, this move was not specifically designed to target Russia. Rather this ban concerns much broader targets," she told Newsweek, adding that it should not cause any significant breakdown of Russia's technological capacity.

"Although Russia did not integrate the Loongson processors into its ecosystem, it will still have to look for alternatives to fill the gap until Russia reaches the necessary production capacity," she said.

Microchips have been an issue for Russia since the first set of sanctions imposed for its annexation of Crimea in 2014. These have impacted its military-industrial complex and caused a lag in its production of high-precision weapons.

"This ban is not likely to cause any more severe disruptions, given that Russia has been suffering from this shortage for almost a decade, leading to adaptation," Miron said.

Miron noted that Russia still has companies like MCST that produce Elbrus processors, which were made in Taiwan, but production was shifted to its plant in Zelenograd after the war started.

"So, there is an indication that Russian tech companies will try to keep manufacturing abroad, and if that is not possible, they will try to bring the expertise back home," she said.

Vitaly Mankevich, chair of the Russian-Asian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RASPP) told Kommersant there was no official Chinese government statement regarding the Loongson ban and that in any case, Beijing would not draw attention to sales to Russia. However, he added there were still ways to purchase such products, "including through third parties, smaller companies."

Chinse president Xi Jinping is Putin's most important ally and has stayed neutral on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite its status as Russia's major trading partner, Beijing has so far respected sanctions such as export controls at Russia's military and has not tried to sell military hardware or components.

In March, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warned that Chinese companies that defied U.S. restrictions against exporting to Russia would be cut off from American equipment and software they need to make their products.

Newsweek reached out to Loongson, the Chinese foreign ministry, and Russia's digital development ministry for comment.

Originally Posted by Iceman123

Very clever, Hitler was, shot himself dead then torched himself.
Jaysus, Are you dumb or dumber?

Hey Numb Brain!

Do you want to start a thread about Hitler and euthanasia?


Don't forget to look up euthanasia before you answer

Originally Posted by bsnub

China Deals Hammer Blow to Russia's War Effort

But I thought they were such good friends?

Beijing has reportedly banned the supply of military-grade processors to Russia produced by Chinese company Loongson, in a potential setback to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.

China will be saving them for a future conflict with Taiwan.

Originally Posted by Neverna

China will be saving them for a future conflict with Taiwan.

Not going to happen.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Not going to happen.

I know there is another thread for this stuff but China continues to ratchet up tensions. They have recently blocked imports of various Taiwanese alcoholic drinks and yesterday saw a record number of nuclear-capable bombers passing through Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone.

Originally Posted by Shutree

I know there is another thread for this stuff but China continues to ratchet up tensions.

They can ratchet tensions up all they want, it is a far cry from attempting an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. China is good at puffing its chest out, but at the end of the day, Xi sees what is happening to Putin in Ukraine, and he wants no part of something similar.

If China does it, it will be when China is ready and not before. That time is now now, IMO.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Beijing has reportedly banned the supply of military-grade processors to Russia produced by Chinese company Loongson, in a potential setback to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.

A soundbite, Russia will obtain the kit via third parties

Originally Posted by Neverna

If China does it, it will be when China is ready and not before. That time is now now, IMO.

China is a paper tiger, just like Russia. It suffers from the same inherent weaknesses militarily as Russia, as their doctrine is almost identical. After seeing how horrid the Russian army is performing in Ukraine, I doubt Xi has the nuts to attempt the largest amphibious landing since D-Day. The last time China tried to invade any nation, it got its ass kicked by the Viets and was forced to retreat. They will not fare any better trying to invade Taiwan.

That said, this is off-topic.

Originally Posted by malmomike77

A soundbite, Russia will obtain the kit via third parties

I think they used up most of the breast pumps and washing machines they stole from Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Shutree

and yesterday saw a record number of nuclear-capable bombers passing through Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone.

Which overlaps with China's zone and both are self declared zones without any similarity with a country's Airspace.

Have one yourself

Originally Posted by bsnub

China is a paper tiger, just like Russia. It suffers from the same inherent weaknesses militarily as Russia, as their doctrine is almost identical. After seeing how horrid the Russian army is performing in Ukraine, I doubt Xi has the nuts to attempt the largest amphibious landing since D-Day. The last time China tried to invade any nation, it got its ass kicked by the Viets and was forced to retreat. They will not fare any better trying to invade Taiwan.

That said, this is off-topic.



I think they used up most of the breast pumps and washing machines they stole from Ukraine.

No wonder i cant get a new toaster or air fryer.

It must really get snubski's goat that the 'paper tiger' will be bigger than the US soon. You'll have to settle for Silver- until emerging India knocks you back to Bronze that is.

Originally Posted by Neverna

If China does it, it will be when China is ready and not before. That time is now now, IMO.

No. Two million plus Chinese are about to die from Covid. Their health system is going to be overwhelmed.

And the Americans, God bless them, are showing they will do whatever it takes for Putin to lose in Ukraine.

So you reckon they will actually overtake the US in the Covid Stakes? A real late runner. Alhough of course to overtake the US on a per capita basis, they would need over 3 million Covid deaths.

Originally Posted by sabang

It must really get snubski's goat that the 'paper tiger' will be bigger than the US soon.

Along comes the repetitive moronic windup doll.

A paper doll?