Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Originally Posted by Troy

I wouldn't get too complacent about Russia using T54/55's even if they aren't upgraded to modern configurations.

It's a tank and is well suited to the current way in which the war is being fought. It may not be a match for modern tanks but it is more than capable of supporting infantry advances on infantry. It is also easy to use and doesn't take as much time to train crews to use them. Forget using them against heavy armour but use with HE shells at Company strength and they can be effective. The Javelin/NLAW is trashing the modern Russian tanks anyway so why bother with them.

They could update the night vision systems to be more effective and many export versions have updated armour and main guns.

Dangerous to laugh them off in my opinion. Especially if this ends up going on for several years, which the Russians are quite capable of sustaining.

It also makes them more vulnerable targets for anti tank weapons flooding into Ukraine from the west!

^ Which Russian tank isn't vulnerable to these anti tank weapons? As I said, quicker to train crews and effective if supported by infantry.

The first of potentially two or three hundred 70-year-old T-55 tanks that the Kremlin has been pulling out of long-term storage finally have arrived in Ukraine.


A photo that appeared online on Friday depicts a T-55 reportedly somewhere in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southern Ukraine.

The photo confirms what some observers grimly predicted: the Kremlin is shipping T-55s to Ukraine without upgrading them. The tank in the photo has the same active infrared optics the T-55 had in the late 1950s.

And there’s no evidence the Russians have added blocks of explosive reactive armor in order to reinforce the T-55’s original—and thin—steel armor.

In other words, the T-55s really are 1950s technology. And hopelessly obsolete compared to even the oldest tank in the Ukrainian inventory.

The mismatch could have profound implications in the coming weeks and months, as Russia’s failed winter offensive peters out and Ukraine moves to seize the initiative with its own, long-planned offensive.

“The Ukrainians, with the infusion of Western aid, have improved the quality of their tanks and other vehicles,” Mick Ryan, a retired Australian army general, wrote in his newsletter. “The Russians, having lost much of their best kit in the first year of the war, are turning to much older tanks and armored vehicles drawn from Cold War stores.”

“This will have an impact on the battlefield,” Ryan pointed out.
Russian technicians began recovering T-55s from long-term storage at the 111th Central Tank Reserve Base in Khabarovsk, in southeastern Russia, in March.

It’s not hard to understand why. In the 14 months since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, the Russian army and its allies have lost nearly 2,000 tanks in Ukraine. That’s four times as many tanks as the Ukrainian army has lost.

Foreign sanctions meanwhile have deprived Russia’s two main tank factories of the high-tech components—optics and ball-bearings—they need to build more than a handful of new T-90M or T-72B3 tanks every month, or even to restore older T-72Bs, T-80Bs or T-62Ms.

The T-55, which first entered service with the Soviet army in 1958, is from a generation of armored vehicles before modern optics, autoloaders and multi-axis stabilization for their main guns, passive infrared optics and sophisticated computerized fire-controls.

A T-55 unlike a new T-72B3 or T-90M doesn’t need a lot of modern electronics in order to function. The Kremlin is reactivating T-55s because they’re the only tanks Russian industry currently can restore quickly and in large numbers.

There could be as many as 300 recoverable T-55s in storage in Russia. Enough to make good two or three months of Russian tank losses in Ukraine. That’s time the Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash tank factories could use to stockpile modern components and ramp up production of T-72B3s and T-90Ms.

“The T-55 in this sense is a resource-saver and an opportunity to buy time,” a Kremlin source told Volya Media.

Even so, it was reasonable to expect Russian industry to make some effort to upgrade the 40-ton, four-crew T-55 by adding a new, but fairly low-tech, 1PN96MT-02 day-night gunner’s sight as well as reactive armor to reinforce the tank’s standard steel armor, which is just 200 millimeters thick at its thickest point.

That’s not what has happened. The photo of that T-55 in Zaporizhzhia clearly shows the tank’s L-2G infrared spotlight. The spotlight, and any target it illuminates, is visible in the T-55 gunner’s active infrared sight out to a distance of several hundred yards.

The problem is, the spotlight also is visible to any enemy forces with infrared optics. “Night-vision devices can be used to detect the enemy’s use of infrared light,” the U.S. Army explained in the 1978 edition of its Field Manual 31-36.

A T-55 can’t fight at night without giving itself away. By contrast, every tank in the Ukrainian inventory—even the Ukrainians’ super-upgraded ex-Slovenian T-55—has passive image-intensification or infrared sights that don’t require a spotlight. All Ukrainian tanks can fight at night without giving themselves away.

It’s always possible the Russian army plans to use the T-55 as crude artillery rather than sending it close to the front to engage in direct combat. The Kremlin expects a Ukrainian counterattack in Zaporizhzhia and has constructed elaborate earthworks in order to defend against it. A few half-buried T-55s could bolster these fortifications.

Russian sources have denied this is the plan, however. And it’s worth noting how poorly the T-55’s D-10T 100-millimeter main gun functions at ranges beyond a few miles. The 54-caliber gun has a muzzle velocity of 3,300 feet per second—pretty good by World War II standards, but lackluster today.

And on a typical vehicle mount, the D-10T can elevate only as high as 18 degrees. That’s low compared to a purpose-built howitzer. The Soviet 2S1, for instance, elevates as high as 70 degrees. The low elevation obviously limits the D-10T’s reach while firing indirectly at targets beyond sight.

Another limitation is that a D-10T’s ammunition, like all modern tank ammo, is “fixed.” That is, it includes the warhead and charge in a single pre-made unit. In contrast to an artillery crew, a tank crew can’t add powder bags to the charge to boost its range.

All this is to say, the T-55 is worse than useless against a well-armed opponent. It’s almost certainly going to get a lot of Russian tankers killed without making much, or any, impact on the battlefield.

The aged tank is a nightmare for its crew. “Imagine you are the tank crew of an old Russian tank that is three to four times as old as you are,” Ryan wrote. “And imagine then you have been briefed that you will be coming up against the latest Western tanks.”

“Regardless of what the ludicrous Russian propaganda tells us,” Ryan added, “this will have a significant impact on Russian morale.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=7d3fdd2a34d2

Originally Posted by bsnub

The aged tank is a nightmare for its crew. “Imagine you are the tank crew of an old Russian tank that is three to four times as old as you are,” Ryan wrote. “And imagine then you have been briefed that you will be coming up against the latest Western tanks.”

I'm not sure the numbers of Western tanks is significant for "conscript Ivan" to be too worried about. Far more demoralising is the lack of Russian imagination on the battlefield resulting in WW1 type stalemate and a war of attrition.

Air superiority is the key and neither side has managed it.

Originally Posted by Troy

I'm not sure the numbers of Western tanks is significant for "conscript Ivan" to be too worried about.

That is where you are wrong. When all is said and done, Ukraine will have three newly formed army corps using western tanks and IFV's and fully trained by NATO forces. That is more than enough to conduct a large scale combined arms assault in southern Ukraine. Remember, nobody saw the Kharkiv offensive coming and when that operation was all said and done Ukraine had liberated more than 12,000 square kilometers, captured hundreds of tanks and apc's and killed more than 10,000 ruzzians. They will be doing it again sometime this spring or summer.

I would not be surprised if Ukraine was knocking on Crimea's door by late summer, with all of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts liberated.

^ The West has so far promised 120-140 tanks . That is about 2 battalions, a far cry from 3 corps. It is sufficient for a limited counterattack but nothing as major as you suggest.

Ukraine doesn't have the resources to take Crimea, nor take back the territory lost in 2014. This war can only end in an uneasy ceasefire when the countries tire of burying their dead.

Originally Posted by Troy

The West has so far promised 120-140 tanks . That is about 2 battalions, a far cry from 3 corps.

You are not counting the Leopard 1's they have gotten 150 of those fully refurbished as well as the 200 Polish PT-91 Twartys that have not even seen the battlfield yet. You can feel free to call me a lair, but I am in contact with people who are serving in the Ukrainian army, and they are the ones telling me this. There are loads of videos on Twitter showing large amounts of fresh Ukrainian troops training in their new kit. There are 3 full army corps being formed that have full western training. It is a fact.

Here is a link from Thomas Theiner who is a respected Italian military expert, and he is also confirming the same thing I was told by my colleague who is an Ukraine army veteran he is in direct contact with several active duty Ukrainian officers. He told me about the Kharkiv offensive before it started, and he was right, and I have no reason to start questioning what he is telling me now.

I would also recommend you read the linked thread that Thomas Theiner posted beneath his comment about the three army corps.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1643000225726963712

Originally Posted by Troy

Ukraine doesn't have the resources to take Crimea, nor take back the territory lost in 2014.

There is no reason to "take" Crimea. As General Ben Hodges has said, you cut it off and make it untenable for the Russians to stay there. I would like to ask you on what evidence are you basing your comment? Ukraine does have the resources, and you will soon see that.

Originally Posted by Troy

This war can only end in an uneasy ceasefire when the countries tire of burying their dead.

Wrong. There will be no ceasefire. I look forward to reminding you of this post and how wrong it will wind up being in a few months.

^ bsnub being over optimistic as usual.

The Polish PT-91 is based on a T-72 and Poland has given 30-60 tanks not 200.

You laugh about Russia taking T-55 and T-62 tanks out of storage and then exclaim Ukraine will get equivalent era Leopard 1 tanks from Western storage, possibly a couple of battalions worth by the Summer.

You just don't have the numbers for 3 corps.

It will be interesting to see if they manage to split the Russian army in the South, but this is the expected attack and is heavily defended.

Originally Posted by Troy

The Polish PT-91 is based on a T-72 and Poland has given 30-60 tanks

Highly upgraded. Not the same tank at all western optics, western reactive armor, upgrade engine and transmission as well as a new automatic loader. You are wrong about the number of tanks the Pols gave, do you have a link to back that claim up?

Originally Posted by Troy

Ukraine will get equivalent era Leopard 1 tanks from Western storage

They are not equivalent, they have been refurbished and upgraded by Rheinmetall. A far superior tank to a T-55 or a T-62.

Originally Posted by Troy

It will be interesting to see if they manage to split the Russian army in the South, but this is the expected attack and is heavily defended.

Not heavily defended, I think you will soon find out. Most of ruzzia's army is concentrated around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

We will not have to wait long to find out who is right about the situation on the front.

I will say, if you think that Ukraine will accept a ceasefire, you are smoking some good stuff. The ruzzian army has been attritted at a vastly higher rate than the Ukrainians, which is why the ruzzians are going to have another mobilization, as they are desperate to get more meat for the grinder.

There are heaps of videos on Twitter showing large amounts of Ukrainians training for this coming offensive. You clearly are not seeing the same things that I am.

Originally Posted by Troy

You just don't have the numbers for 3 corps.

Where did I say that it would be 3 corps of tank brigades?

Originally Posted by bsnub

You are wrong about the number of tanks the Pols gave, do you have a link to back that claim up?

Just a moment...

Polish PM: Ukraine to receive 60 PT-91 tanks '''in coming days'''

PT-91 Twardy tanks donated by Poland are now in service with Ukrainian army | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army

Originally Posted by bsnub

They are not equivalent, they have been refurbished and upgraded by Rheinmetall. A far superior tank to a T-55 or a T-62.

They are very mobile, lightly armoured tanks which would be best used in the same way as the Russian T-55 or T-62. That is, a troop carrier ad infantry support vehicle. They are nowhere near as effective as the Ukraine T-64.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Where did I say that it would be 3 corps of tank brigades?

You didn't, nor did you give figures for Divisions/Corp or Brigades/Division or Men/Brigade or number of tank brigades. However, the quality and numbers of armour currently being donated by the West does not equate to sufficient amounts to mount a major counter offensive. It will be limited in my opinion. Let's hope it is a political success and provides a means for a ceasefire.

There are lots of Israeli soldiers fighting for Ukraine. Knuckli is one of them, he lost an eye fighting for Ukraine. He went home to Israel, recovered and went back to rejoin the fight...

https://twitter.com/11Knuk123

One of many Jews fighting for Ukraine.

Slava Ukraini!

Ukraine: Russian occupation authorities threaten Ukrainians without Russian IDs with deportation and property seizure

Russia’s military continues to force people in occupied Ukrainian territories to become Russian citizens, Ukraine’s Armed Forces General Staff says in its daily bulletin.


The military officials say Russian servicemen visit households in Tavria, the Kherson region, and check if local residents have Russian IDs. They say that Ukrainian citizens who fail to obtain Russian citizenship by 1 June will be deported and have their personal property confiscated.


Vladimir Putin signed a law on 18 March, allowing Russian nationals to withdraw from their Ukrainian citizenship upon filing a request with the police.


Russia’s Interior Ministry designed the way a formal statement of “unwillingness to be a Ukrainian citizen” should look like in early April. Dmitry Zakhvatov, a lawyer, has told Novaya Gazeta Europe that this procedure is entirely invalid in legal terms and will not really withdraw people from their Ukrainian citizenship since such things can only be made based on Ukrainian legislation.

Новая газета Европа

Ukrainian tank crews have been quick to learn how to operate the eight Leopard 2 tanks donated by Oslo, Norwegian military officials say.

“The Ukrainians have proven to be quite good when it comes to learning new Western [tanks]. It is easier to use, because it is designed with operation in mind,” said Lieutenant-Colonel Palle Ydstebø of the Norwegian Defense Academy. “This may partly be due to something as banal as the comfort and space in the carriages being much better than in the old Soviet equipment.”

But it also has to do with the experience of the Ukrainians.

“Here we are talking about very experienced people who have been in tanks before, and who have also already been in combat with tanks,” Ydstebø said.

The eight Leopard 2s donated by Norway arrived in Ukraine shortly before Easter, according to the Norwegian Defense Ministry (MoD). They joined a growing armada of different Leopard 2 variants donated by Germany, Poland and Portugal. They were part of the first tranche of 150 Leopard 2 tanks promised to Ukraine by NATO member nations and allies like Sweden.

Norwegian troops trained the Ukrainians on how to operate the tanks in Poland, according to the Norwegian MoD. That included learning how to build ditches and other obstacles so they can learn how to cross them.

We are a small group of instructors here, which consists of people from all the Land Forces Hæren of the Norwegian Armed Forces,” said one of the Norwegian instructors, who was identified only as Thomas. “Tank instructors have 10 years of experience working with tanks. We have Bergepanzer armored recovery vehicle instructors who can both repair and operate them. We employ instructors and technicians in engineering armored vehicles with many years of experience. So I can say that we have the best of the best to provide this training.”

“Everyone who undergoes training brings with them some combat experience,” Thomas added.


Ukraine Situation Report: Norwegians Laud Kyiv'''s Tank Crews

I think the Brits can appreciate this...

British soldiers saluting Ukrainian soldiers who have completed their training and are going back to the frontlines.

https://twitter.com/pjasinski/status...09215820926977

Brought a tear to my eye. NATO forces have an esprit de corps, it's something you only understand if you serve, and they are imparting it to the Ukrainians they train. The ruzzian scum do not have that.

BTW, it must be at least 60,000 Ukrainian troops that have been trained in England by now. Not one of them has been fighting on the front line. They have been in the rear training grounds this entire time, while the Border guards and territorial defense forces do the bulk of the fighting in Bakmut and other places on the front.

These western trained troops will be conducting the coming counteroffensive.

Massive explosions rock Russia leaving thousands without power in ‘Ukrainian drone attack’ on power stations

Huge explosions have rocked two key electricity supply stations in Russia in a suspected Ukrainian drone strike.
The attack sparked a raging inferno and is understood to have left thousands without power in the Belgorod region.


Belgorod governor said stations were hit in the city and another area in the wider region which borders Ukraine.


He said: “In Belgorod and the Belgorod region, two fires were recorded at civilian facilities.


“There were no casualties. All emergency services are on site and the fire is under control.”

Reports said parts of Belgorod city - which has a population of 340,000 - suffered blackouts after a targeted strike on a crucial substation in the suburb of Igumenka.


Another in the village of Dragunskoe was hit, according to Baza media outlet which has close links to law enforcement.


The village is some six miles northwest of the city centre.


Belgorod is some 22 miles from the Ukrainian frontier.


Telegram channels said there had been explosions before fires erupted.


There were separate unconfirmed Ukrainian claims that a Murom-P mobile surveillance complex in Belgorod region has been destroyed.

Belgorod region has faced regular drone strikes from Ukrainian territory but not on the scale that Russia has hit Kyiv’s regions.


But Ukraine has also admitted to using sabotage tactics to cause fires in Russia.


Ukrainian intelligence chief Major-General Kyrylo Budanov has said that Russia was seeing many unusual explosions and fires.


“Much of this is no accident,” he said, admitting that Ukraine was paying Russian saboteurs.


“Something is constantly on fire [in Russia].


“Signalling equipment on railways, it lights up several times a day, on various highways constantly for two to three hours, sometimes for five to six hours, traffic gets suspended.”


The suspected strikes come as Ukraine is claimed to be preparing a counteroffensive to grab back territory from invading Russian forces.

Leaked classified US intelligence documents also appear to reveal Ukraine‘s plans.


One of the documents summarised the training schedules of 12 Ukraine combat brigades, and said nine of them were being trained by US and NATO forces, and needed 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanised vehicles.


The documents - at least one of which carried a “top secret” label - were circulated on pro-Russian government channels.


Information in the documents also details expenditure rates for munitions under Ukraine military control, including for the HIMARS rocket systems, the US-made artillery rocket systems that have proven highly effective against Russian forces.

Massive explosions rock Russia leaving thousands without power in ‘Ukrainian drone attack’ on power stations | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site

Ukraine's military is "stealthily" amassing forces in the northeastern Kharkiv region for a push in the contested Donbas, Russian media has reported, suggesting the long-touted Ukrainian counteroffensive could be in its initial stages.

Kyiv's forces are reinforcing units around the Kharkiv city of Kupyansk "to deliver a strike," according to Colonel Vitaly Kiselyov, named by the Tass state news agency as an military expert linked to Moscow-backed officials in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine.

Russian-backed separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk – collectively known as the Donbas – broke from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv in 2014, and the two regions have seen much of the heaviest fighting since the start of all-out war in 2022.

On April 14, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War think tank noted that Russian sources had described Ukrainian forces as continuing to "target rear areas" in Luhansk, with one Russian "milblogger" suggesting that Kyiv's fighters were "striking Russian military assets in rear areas in preparation for counteroffensive operations in the area."

On Monday, Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces didn't mention any Ukrainian offensive actions around Kupyansk, reporting that Russia had shelled a number of settlements along this axis and in Luhansk.

Newsweek has reached out to Ukraine's defense ministry for comment via email.

Western analysts and Kyiv officials have long suggested that Ukraine is planning on mounting a spring counteroffensive against Russian forces, although Ukraine's leadership has sought to keep the details a closely guarded secret.

Ukraine's deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, has repeatedly called for media silence around Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. In early April, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, said that no more than five people had specific information about the upcoming offensive.

Speaking to Fox News earlier this month, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the upcoming counteroffensive will see Ukraine regain control of previously held territory.

"We are very concentrated on the preparation of our counteroffensive, together with our partners and especially with the U.S.," he said.

In recent weeks, leaked Pentagon documents circulating online have purportedly revealed U.S. support and plans for a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Some of the documents were labeled "top secret," with many offering a snapshot of Ukraine's war effort as of the start of March. Jack Teixeira, the 21-year-old U.S. air national guardsman suspected of being behind the leak, was charged over the weekend.

One document appeared to show a U.S. assessment that Ukraine would only be able to secure "modest territorial gains" in a spring counteroffensive.

Kyiv initially dismissed the documents as "virtual fake leaks," before Ukraine's defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said the files were "a mix of truth and falsehoods."

"There is a lot of information there which does not correspond with reality," Reznikov said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on April 11 that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had "reaffirmed the ironclad U.S. support and vehemently rejected any attempts to cast doubt on Ukraine's capacity to win on the battlefield."

For weeks, Russian officials have signaled that they are preparing for a counteroffensive. On March 24, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Kyiv's forces are "preparing for an offensive, everyone knows that."

"Our General Staff is calculating this and is preparing its own solutions," Medvedev told Russian media.

Russian forces are preparing for a counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, the ISW think tank said on Sunday. Moscow's forces have reportedly made defensive preparations for a counteroffensive in the annexed Crimean peninsula to the south of mainland Ukraine, which the Kremlin has controlled since 2014.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-cou...e-near-1794766

A Danish counter-intelligence officer says the sabotage plans are being prepared in case of a full conflict with the West while the head of Norwegian intelligence told the broadcasters the programme was considered highly important for Russia and controlled directly from Moscow.

The broadcasters say they have analysed intercepted Russian communications which indicate so-called ghost ships sailing in Nordic waters which have turned off the transmitters so as not to reveal their locations.

The report focuses on a Russian vessel called the Admiral Vladimirsky. Officially, this is an Expeditionary Oceanographic Ship, or underwater research vessel. But the report alleges that it is in fact a Russian spy ship.

The documentary uses an anonymous former UK Royal Navy expert to track the movements of the vessel in the vicinity of seven wind farms off the coast of the UK and the Netherlands on one mission.

It says the vessel slows down when it approaches areas where there are wind farms and loiters in the area. It says it sailed for a month with its transmitter turned off.

When a reporter approached the ship on a small boat, he was confronted by a masked individual carrying what appeared to be a military assault rifle.

The same ship was reportedly sighted off the Scottish coast last year. It was spotted entering the Moray Firth on 10 November and seen about 30 nautical miles east of Lossiemouth, home to the RAF's Maritime Patrol Aircraft fleet before heading slowly west.

The BBC understands that UK officials are aware of Russian intent to conduct what is known as undersea mapping, including using boats that move around in UK waters.

If there are specific threats against the UK these would be investigated, but sources declined to say what activity might have been looked at so far.

In February, Dutch intelligence issued an unusual official warning about activity that could indicate preparation for disruption or sabotage of marine infrastructure. The head of the country's military intelligence said a Russian ship had been detected near a wind farm in the North Sea and was mapping out sites.

"We saw in recent months Russian actors tried to uncover how the energy system works in the North Sea. It is the first time we have seen this," General Jan Swillens said.

Reconnaissance of sensitive sites is not unusual and Western countries will likely be carrying out similar activity against Russia. The intention is likely to have a series of options available should a conflict escalate.

One option might be to damage communications or take down countries' power systems to cause chaos.

So far the evidence of actual sabotage rather than just intelligence gathering for the possibility is more limited.

The report raises the possibility such vessels were linked to an incident south of Svalbard last year when an underwater data cable was cut.

The cable served the world largest commercial ground station for satellite communications. Norwegian police have said they believe "human activity" was behind the sabotage but have not officially accused anyone.

13 April this year, Norway expelled 15 Russian officials, accusing them of spying. It was the latest in a wave of expulsions across Europe since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In October last year police declared a major incident in the Shetland Islands after a cable was cut.

The incident severely hampered communications with the mainland and was blamed at the time as having been likely caused by "fishing vessels". The incident severely hampered communications and was seen as likely caused by "fishing vessels". Cables are regularly cut by accident and so far the BBC understands this is not thought to have been the result of hostile activity.

There had been one clear and significant act of sabotage and that was the destruction last September of parts of the Nord Stream pipeline designed to carry gas from Russia to Europe.

At the time, many accused Russia of being responsible but since then other reports have suggested other possibilities, including pro-Ukrainian actors, and investigations are ongoing.

Russian military intelligence, the GRU, has also been linked to both sabotage and poisonings. A GRU team linked to the poisoning of Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018 with Novichok nerve agent was also linked to the blowing up of an arms depot in a Czech forest.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309687

Egypt paused a plan to secretly supply rockets to Russia last month following talks with senior U.S. officials and instead decided to produce artillery ammunition for Ukraine, according to five leaked U.S. intelligence documents that have not been previously reported.

The Washington Post last week reported on another document that exposed a covert scheme by Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi in February to provide Russia with up to 40,000 122mm Sakr-45 rockets, which can be used in Russian multiple-launch rocket launchers. Sisi instructed his subordinates to keep the project secret “to avoid problems with the West,” the document said.

But the new documents, which The Post obtained from a trove of material allegedly posted on Discord by a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, appear to show Sisi in early March backing away from plans to supply Moscow, a move that would have represented a major rebuke to Cairo’s most generous Western ally, the United States.

Egypt, though it has a long-standing diplomatic and military relationship with Russia, has for decades been a principal American ally in the Middle East and receives more than $1 billion a year in U.S. military aid.

In an apparent diplomatic win for the Biden administration, a new leaked document stated that Egypt shelved the Moscow deal and approved selling 152mm and 155mm artillery rounds to the United States for transfer to Ukraine.

Washington has sought to enlist new supporters — and desperately needed ammunition — for Kyiv’s fight against Russian forces. Egypt intended to use its capacity to produce weapons for Ukraine as “leverage” to obtain advanced U.S. military items, the document said.

Taken together, the documents provide new insight into the Biden administration’s quiet but high-stakes diplomacy with countries that have sought to stay on the margins of Washington’s intensifying standoff with Moscow. They also show how great power competition has allowed Egypt to seek new advantages as its relationship with the United States grows less crucial.

“The mere fact of competition creates openings for easy wins with the U.S., and you can imagine that this will be to the detriment of the democracy and human rights agenda,” said Michael Hanna, U.S. program director at the International Crisis Group.

The documents do not indicate whether Cairo later revived the Moscow plan or whether it has yet supplied the United States with the ammunition for Ukraine.

The Post earlier reported that Egypt has denied producing rockets for Russia, and a U.S. government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address sensitive information, told The Post there was no indication Egypt had executed the plan.

Presented with the new documents, a spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment on the leaked materials. After the initial report on Russian rocket production, Egyptian state-run media reported that officials denied the claim, saying it had “no basis in truth.”

A senior Biden administration official said, “Egypt is a close partner and we are regularly engaged with its leadership on a host of regional and global issues.”

The United States faces challenges ramping up its own production of artillery shells and other items needed in Ukraine and has sought help from partner nations worldwide in advance ofwhat U.S. officials predict will be challenging spring fighting season. Conversely, Washingtonhas slapped sanctions on its adversary Iran over shipments of arms to Russia and issued warnings to China against doing the same.

One Western ambassador in Cairosaid the leaks suggest Egypt “underestimated the U.S. response to a possible arms supply to Russia” and wanted to “maximize their benefit from both sides.”

The top-secret documents — informed in part by signals intelligence, or eavesdropping — detail a month of intelligence reports from early February to early March and were intended for top Pentagon officials.

The first, dated Feb. 17, reports that Egypt took steps in late January and early February to secretly supply rockets to Russia, including setting a price and making plans for obtainingbrass to make the rockets. In a conversation on Jan. 31, Minister of State for Military Production Mohamed Salah al-Din told Sisi that he advised Russian delegates that their agreed price of $1,100 per unit could rise to $1,500 due to a potential increase in brass prices. The Russians were ready to “buy anything,” he told Sisi.The Egyptian president also told Salah al-Din, according to the document, to request “specialized equipment” from Russia to improve the accuracy of the rockets or the quality of the Egyptian factories making them.

A second and undated document, likely from mid-February, states that Egypt began creating a rocket production line for the Russian military. Russian delegates had requested to purchase 15,000 rockets at the $1,100 unit price, the document states, but Sisi ordered subordinates to purchase the necessary materials to produce up to 40,000.

Like Ukraine’s army, Russian forces have expended enormous amounts of weaponry in the grinding war and need to be resupplied.

Egypt’s president appears to have put a stop to the rocket plan following visits from U.S. officials, including Brett McGurk and Barbara Leaf, the top White House and State Department officials for Middle East issues, who traveled to Cairo in late February, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who visited in early March.

The Wall Street Journal reported that month that Austin asked Egyptian leaders to provide Ukraine artillery rounds during their talks in Cairo but got no clear agreement. But an intelligence document dated March 9, the day after Austin’s visit, states that Egypt had approved selling 152mm and 155mm artillery rounds to the United States for transfer to Ukraine.

That document, part of a daily intelligence update for senior Pentagon leaders, said that Egypt planned to use the U.S. request for ammunition to push Washingtonfor a long-term military aid deal and to obtain specific American equipment, including F-35 stealth fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems. The documentsaid that Egypt would require American help for establishing a production line for the shells, a licensing agreement and raw materials.

Austin’s visit is the subject of another document, apparently from mid-March,that summarizes conversations between Sisi and two senior officials on March 8, the day the Egyptian president and the U.S. defense secretary held talks in Cairo.

In the March 8 conversations, Sisi appeared to suspect the possibility his discussions were being surveilled and issued Defense Minister Mohamed Zaki what the document described as a warning to “‘be careful’ about discussing presumably military requests from other countries, like Russia.” He and Zaki referenced “military contracts” with Russia but did not explicitly reference the rocket production plan, the document reported.

Zaki told Sisi that plans for an Egyptian delegation to travel to Russia on March 12 or 13, when they would likely sign contracts, had been postponed “until the situation is clearer” following Austin’s visit. Sisi said that “caution was warranted to avoid Egypt getting into trouble unnecessarily,” to which Zaki responded that “we have not taken any measures” and that Egypt had not signed any contracts.

Cairo has recently evinced frustration with the state of the relationship with Washington.The document summarizing Sisi’s March 8 conversations reports the Egyptian president “characterized the situation as the U.S. not having anything new for Egypt and not needing anything from Egypt, with the U.S. only interested in confirming U.S.-Egypt relations.”

“ElSisi envisioned the U.S. believing Israel was doing well, the Gulf countries were fine, and Europe was supporting the U.S. regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so as a result, Egypt’s role was secondary,” it continued.

The United States has pressed Egypt on human rights issues, including on its widespread jailing of activists and anyone who might voice opposition to Sisi. Last year, Washington withheld a small portion of its military aid to Egypt, citing concerns over this pattern of repression.

Even so, President Biden — who once pledged “no more blank checks” for Sisi — has faced scrutiny for adopting what some critics saw as an overly friendly approach to the Egyptian president, including a chummy interaction on the sidelines of the COP27 climateconference in the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh last year.

The intelligence also provides additional visibility into Egypt’s deepening military relationship with Moscow and how it may have already aided Russian forces on the battlefield. An additional, undated document in the leaked trove notes that U.S. imagery and electronic intelligence had identified four Russian SA-23 surface-to-air missile systems in Ukraine that “very likely” had been intended for export to Egypt. Cairo signed a contract with Moscow for four SA-23 batteries in 2017, and the first two were delivered to Egypt in 2020 and 2021, the document stated. It did not explicitly say whether Egypt had returned those two systems to Russia for use in Ukraine.

When Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Egypt took a public position of noninvolvement, voting for an end to the invasion at the United Nations but otherwise remaining neutral, and receiving visiting officials from both Russia and the United States. But with international grain shortages due to the war in Ukraine, Egypt has relied heavily on Russia to provide wheat that has helped stave off social unrest over rising food prices and an economic crisis caused in part by fallout from the conflict. Russia also began construction on Egypt’s first nuclear power plant last year and recently signed a deal for a railway workshop in Egypt.

The two countries have a long history of military and trade cooperation, even as Egypt relies on the United States for more than $1 billion of military aid each year. Egypt’s enormous population, strategic location neighboring Israel and control over the Suez Canal have long kept it relevant internationally, and Egyptian officials have tried to represent themselves to the United States and other powerful allies as a key security partner and mediator in regional tensions.

A former National Security Council official during the Obama administration who worked on the Middle East and spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations said that it was common for Egypt to use Russia as a “hedge” to push Washington. After the 2013 Rabaa massacre and military coup led by Sisi prompted the government to review aid to Egypt, Cairo indicated that it could “turn to Russia,” a threat that “resonated with some senior officials at the time,” the person said.

Behind the scenes, the leaked documents suggest, Egypt’s balancing act was more complicated.

“Ideally it is not an either or, but appeasing both ends,” the Western ambassador said. “Bottom line is, though, they cannot endanger their ties with Russia [either], so they cannot actively cooperate with the U.S. on supplies to Ukraine.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ked-documents/

Ex-Polish PT-91 Tanks Have Arrived In Ukraine. They’re Better Than Russia’s Own Replacement Tanks.

A long column of ex-Polish PT-91 Twardy tanks, rolling along a training ground somewhere in Ukraine on or before Monday, is a healthy reminder of two important facts.

Despite substantial pledges to Ukraine of Western-made tanks, upgraded Soviet-style tanks still by far are the most numerous tanks in Ukraine’s arsenal. And it’s those tanks that are likely to lead the way if Kyiv’s forces finally shift from defense to offense in the coming weeks or months.

Still, the worst Soviet-style tank Ukraine is acquiring is better than the best Soviet-style tank Russia lately has been able to acquire in meaningful numbers.

Russia doesn’t yet import tanks. It builds them new, locally, or restores them from local stocks of Cold War-vintage vehicles. Industrial bottlenecks have throttled Russia’s efforts to make good the 2,000 or so tanks it’s lost in the 14 months since it widened its war on Ukraine.

Increasingly, the Russian army’s replacement tanks are unmodified T-62s and T-55s from the 1960s and 1950s—tanks that don’t require the high-tech components that are in short supply in Russia.
By contrast, as Ukraine replaces the roughly 500 tanks it’s lost since February 2022, it’s getting many of the replacement tanks from foreign allies. Any local shortages of electronics, optics or ball bearings don’t constrain the supply of fresh vehicles.

Which is why those eight PT-91s, parading across that field in Ukraine this week, are so encouraging for advocates of a free Ukraine. These are the tanks Kyiv could send into battle against Russia’s ancient T-62s and T-55s.

It would be a deeply unfair match. To produce a PT-91, Polish vehicle-maker Bumar-Labedy started with a 45-ton T-72M1—a downgraded export variant of the 1983-vintage, Soviet T-72A—and replaced the engine, transmission, fire-controls, optics and autoloader and added bricks of Polish-made Erawa reactive armor.

The result is a tank that still looks a lot like a T-72. Same silhouette. Same 125-millimeter 2A46 main gun. Same three-person crew. But it’s got an 850-horsepower diesel engine in place of the old, 780-horsepower model—making it several miles per hour faster. The neatly-fitted reactive armor offers better protection against high-explosive rounds.

The new fire-controls are the PT-91’s most important feature, however. The stabilizer on the T-72M1 is crude and requires frequent recalibration, limiting the tank’s accuracy while firing on the move. The Twardy adds new, more robust, two-axis stabilization.

All that is to say, the PT-91 is a better tank than a 1980s-vintage T-72M1 is—and a much better tank than a much older T-62 or T-55 is. As far as firepower and protection go, the Polish-made tank might fall just behind a German-made Leopard 2A4.

Poland back in the 1990s acquired around 230 PT-91s. Warsaw so far has pledged 60 of them to Kyiv. More could follow as Poland’s new American-made M-1s and South Korean K-2s begin arriving in large numbers.

It’s unclear how many of the PT-91s so far have reached Ukraine. It is clear, from a total lack of photographic evidence of Twardys on the front lines, that Kyiv is holding back the ex-Polish tanks—either saving them for newly-forming brigades, or waiting to send them to existing brigades as replacements for combat losses.

Either way, these fresh PT-91s soon should outnumber Ukraine’s battle-ready Western tanks, which include: 14 ex-British Challenger 2s; some portion of 40 Leopard 2A4s from Poland, Canada, Norway and Spain; and a few of the 31 newer Leopard 2A6s/Strv 122s coming from Germany, Portugal and Sweden.

Ukraine also is getting more than a hundred Leopard 1A5s from a German-led consortium as well as 31 American M-1A1s. But none of these tanks have shipped.

If Ukraine goes on the counteroffensive this spring or early summer, the PT-91s could be the most numerous of the Ukrainian army’s replacement tanks.

Luckily for the Ukrainians, they’re pretty good tanks. Far better, at least, than Russia’s own replacement tanks.

Ex-Polish PT-91 Tanks Have Arrived In Ukraine. They’re Better Than Russia’s Own Replacement Tanks.

Tanks are obsolete in the terms of being useful on the battlefield and have been so since the end of world war two. If fact I'd say they are fcuking useless in the world of modern warfare. Once the Carl Gustaf was developed tank warfare became obsolete. No country has the best tank. Hit in the right spot they're all fcuked.

Well I don't hear the ol' russkie wankers squealing about this as much as they did when a Ukrainian missile went astray.

Dopey fuckers

Russian jet accidentally drops bomb on Russian city of Belgorod, state media says

I never ever quote RT. Because I know it wont fly. But the truth isn't hard to find behind the fantasy in the western media either. If you just look.

Here is the order of battle for the Russian invasion Wikipedia page. Order of battle for the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia It lists all the battalion tactical groups that took part in the invasion. Add them all up and you get 68 battalion tactical groups.

Here is the Wiki page for the Russian battalion tactical group: Battalion tactical group - Wikipedia It says that each BTG is comprised of 800 soldiers.

Add them up and you get 54,400 Russian soldiers. The rest of the forces were Donbas militia and Luhansk militia listed on the same page. And Wager PMC and Chechen forces. So the initial attack into Ukraine comprised of a total of just 54,400 regular Russian army.

^ Around 30% sounds about right. The rest being conscripted and contract troops. Other sources suggest there were brigades from the 29th army and I also didn't see 1st and 2nd Guards mentioned.

I think the initial estimate of around 190,000 is about right with an additional 300,000 and ten another 200,000 mobilised.

I think you should pop over and do a head count.