Thread: Greek PM concedes election defeat

Who will blink fist? Nobody will blink. It will be a drawn out affair designed to protect the Euro. Greece may exit the Euro but the Euro will survive. A few rocky years for the Euro and many more for Greece (in or out) is my prediction.

The former head of the US central bank, Alan Greenspan, has predicted that Greece will have to leave the eurozone.

He told the BBC he could not see who would be willing to put up more loans to bolster Greece's struggling economy.

Greece wants to re-negotiate its bailout, but Mr Greenspan said "I don't think it will be resolved without Greece leaving the eurozone".

Earlier, UK Chancellor George Osborne said a Greek exit would cause "deep ructions" for Britain.

Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: "I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don't think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone - it is just a matter of time before everyone recognises that parting is the best strategy.

"The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated - actually even just fiscally integrated won't do it."

Following the election in Greece of the anti-austerity Syriza party, Greek ministers have been touring European capitals trying to drum up support for a re-negotiation of its bailout terms.

Euro break-up
However, there appears little willingness in Berlin, or at the European Central Bank, to alter the terms of its €240bn (£182bn) rescue by the European Union, ECB, and International Monetary Fund.

"The [bailout] conditions with Greece were generous, beyond all measure,'' German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said last week. He saw no justification for relaxing them further.

Mr Greenspan said: "All the cards are being held by members of the eurozone."

He also warned that trying to hold the 19-nation euro bloc together "is putting strain on everybody". He said as well as Greece leaving the eurozone, there was a real risk of a "much bigger break-up" with other southern European countries forced out.

Alan Greenspan has long been a critic of the European single currency. Now, the 88-year-old former chairman of the US Federal Reserve has repeated a claim that nothing short of full political union - a United States of Europe - can save the euro from extinction.

Given that few (if any) of the current 19 sovereign governments which make up the eurozone would choose to create such an entity at this time, that means - for Greenspan at least - the euro is doomed.

Before all that, though, he foresees Greece quitting the single currency, but the euro surviving intact. Grexit, he says, is more manageable now than it would have been when Greece got its first EU bailout in 2010.

But Greenspan has been badly wrong before. He said markets (and banks in particular) would always act rationally and prevent self destructive crashes. Then the financial crisis happened in 2008 - plunging the world into a massive recession. He did, though, admit his error.


Earlier on Sunday, Mr Osborne told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show that the UK was stepping up contingency planning to prepare for a possible Greek exit.

"This stand-off between Greece and the eurozone is increasing the risks every day to the British economy," the chancellor said.

A Greek exit from the single currency would create instability in European financial markets and cause "real ructions" in Britain, too, he added.

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras wants to put in place a short-term financial plan enabling the country to pay its way while it renegotiates the austerity cuts and conditions attached to its bailout terms. The existing bailout ends on 28 February.

Mr Tsipras made his first major speech to parliament since taking over as prime minister on Sunday evening.

He said he would stick to his campaign pledges, which include giving free food and electricity to the poor. He promised to cut politicians' benefits, such as ministerial cars and said he would fight against corruption and tax avoidance.

He also said he would seek a loan, not an extension to the bailout.

Mr Tsipras is to meet EU leaders at a summit in Brussels on Thursday. Mr Varoufakis will meet eurozone finance ministers the day before.

BBC News - Greece: Greenspan predicts exit from euro inevitable

Didn't take greenspan long to raise the call then. Fuck it! I want Greece to stay in the Euro on the basis that what ever the Elite want must be bad for the people of the world.

The question is: are they brave enough to risk the euro zone to break up?
I doubt they are.
In fact, the Germans are gaining from a Euro with some weak members - their D-Mark would be as hard as the Swiss Franc is.

Greece wants $236 billion in German World War II reparations


Athens: Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras says the country has a "moral obligation" to claim reparations from Germany for the damages wrought by the Nazis during World War II.

Greece had "a moral obligation to our people, to history, to all European peoples who fought and gave their blood against Nazism," he said in a key address to parliament.

Berlin has already sounded a firm "no" to requests for reparations nearly 70 years after the end of the war, but Mr Tsipras and his radical left party have vowed to tackle the issue. The issue risks aggravating already strained ties between Athens and Berlin, as Mr Tsipras bids to reverse austerity measures imposed by its international creditors.

"Our historical obligation is to claim the occupation loan and reparations," the new prime minister said, referring to Germany's four-year occupation of Greece and a war-time loan which the Third Reich forced the Greek central bank to give it, and which ruined the country financially.

Mr Tsipras's anti-austerity Syriza party claims Germany owes it about around €162 billion ($236 billion), about or around half the country's public debt, which stands at over €315 billion. The loan to the Third Reich was for 476 million Reichsmarks, which was valued at $US8.25 billion in a 2012 German Bundestag lower house of Parliament report.

Mr Tsipras said on Sunday that his government would not seek an extension of a stringent bailout program and would carry out its campaign pledges to roll back austerity, but gradually.

In laying out his government's program in a speech before Parliament, Mr Tsipras sought to tread a line between satisfying coalition lawmakers and supporters that his government will honour the anti-austerity promises that brought it to power last month while reassuring creditors that his radical leftist administration is prepared to move towards a compromise that keeps the economy afloat without further burdening European taxpayers.

Greece's creditors - the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - want the new government to seek an extension beyond February 28 of the European portion of the country's bailout of €240 billion. However, the government has said that despite dwindling cash reserves, it is not interested in the latest portion of the bailout, a loan of €7 billion, because of what it sees as onerous conditions. Instead, it has said it wants a program between now and the end of May to bridge the gap and permission to raise short-term funding by issuing treasury bills.

"We only have one commitment: to serve the interests of our people, the good of society," Mr Tsipras said, noting that it was an "irreversible decision" of his government to fulfil its campaign promises "in their entirety".



Greece wants $236 billion in German World War II reparations

Lots of talk, but little action, the Greeks have bailed on the bail out plan, they either left the EU that day or can bail and stay a member.
No one talking about Greece leaving the EU and keeping the Euro, can be done, today in debt, tomorrow debt free and living on it's trading income in Euros.
Banks don't know where to run, can't say to other EU members, your people need to pay the Greek debt.
There will be a deal done behind closed doors, people of not only the EU, but the world can not be allowed to see that nations and people can tell the banks to F off.

The Greek leaders are spot on, expect them to have an aircrash soon...

Love this guy.

^ Minority government, unless he gets big wins on the board early he wont last.

We are told that the greeks are in the shit due to their economic performance and that the US economy is simply awesome and shooting higher highs every day.

A graph of the two economies with the "expected" growth/decline over the next year or so.



Then there is the debt per % GDP. Do we want to go there.

The Greeks appear to be swinging behind the elected governments standpoint more and more.

"In another 'odd' event for Europe's status quo, for the second time in a week, tens of thousands of pro-government supporters have taken to the infamous Syntagma Square in Athens to ensure Syriza knows exactly what tomorrow's 'negotiations' are all about. With the latest poll showing Syriza in an even more dominant position nationally (45.4% vs ND's 18.4%) and Merkel's party looking like it will lose in a landslide in Hamburg local election, it seems the people of Europe have expressed their will. As Germany's Sinn suggests, Grexit would be best, "if Greece doesn't exit the euro, it will keep adding new debt it will be unable to repay." Perhaps that is why the rally cries of "Give Greece a chance" are so loud..."

Small country, but too big to fail comes to mind, it goes down, who pays, last time it was sub prime rates, not a country.
Your pension plan and your taxes paid, same will need to happen again, but will the voters of the EU stand for it.

Terror on the streets, poverty in homes, no jobs, no leadership, what normally happens then.
Right or left, here we go.

Greece will not go down because they will sell their debt to Russia.

I met a greek bird a few nights ago. Spoken to her a few times in the past but not since the election. First thing I said to her was "congratulations, you must be so proud".

Nooo she said. She works for..... dum dum dummmmm an American NGO group in Thailand, back ground in banking and was almost violently opposed to the new government...... but she had no answer for the simple point that Greek politicians, corrupt, borrowed a load of money and blew it from a group of central bankers who created the money out of thin air. When Greece couldn't pay the interest and fines (in real tax payers money) they were forced to take more money of which the vast majority of it went straight to the private bankers to float their bankrupt banks, but the debt went onto the Greek peoples tax money. How is that fair?

IMF - Central European Bank - World Bank
No different to the private FEDERAL RESERVE. A bunch of bankers raping the world for their profit.

Originally Posted by pseudolus

Greece will not go down because they will sell their debt to Russia

EU is talking tough but figure they will fold and reach a compromise with Greece to prevent pushing Greece away from the EU. EU fears a domino effect. Or even worse in the eyes of the banking leaches. Default! Big stock market losses. I wouldn't mind holding Greece's hand. Greece never should have folded and agreed to the ridiculous austerity program from day one.

For the moment Russia has it's hands full shoring up it's own economic woes. Can't see a bail out from Russia. $375 billion and counting is a big chunk of dough.

Only trouble with that scenario is that if Greece is offered a new deal then other countries will want one too and that will be unacceptable to the Germans, going to be an interesting few months to see how this all plays out.

Originally Posted by buriramboy

Only trouble with that scenario is that if Greece is offered a new deal then other countries will want one too and that will be unacceptable to the Germans, going to be an interesting few months to see how this all plays out.

Next bank loan to keep Greece afloat is the end of Feb, 7 billion I think, no loan and the Greek government can't pay it's bills.
Loan given and no deal done, Greece wins and knows it's won.
Bet some bankers are having sleepless nights.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

no loan and the Greek government can't pay it's bills

What does this actually mean?

Why can't the Greek central bank just print more money if the government doesn't have it?

Why can't the Greek government just say: fuk you. We put all loans on hold, we will be careful with our spending, but we must provide for the people and improve their quality of living, create jobs, etc. We will pay back the loans, we won't be paying any interest, as and when we can, don't know when exactly so don't ask... Then, if they don't have the money to pay government sector employees, etc, print some! If they have problems paying for energy from international providers or other stuff then negotiate directly with those parties - tell the EU banks to fark off!

In NYT Op-Ed, Yanis Varoufakis Says Greece Is Not Bluffing, "Will Not Cross Red Lines It Has Drawn"

With only a few short hours until the process of everyone's cards being revealed in Brussels begins, it is once again Greece' turn to remind the other players on the table that no matter the quality of cards it has, it is not bluffing. Which is precisely what anyone bluffing would say.

In a just released Op-Ed in the NYT (were there no European newspaper willing to accept the Greek finance minister's Op-Ed one wonders that he had to go all the way to the bastion of the left... in the United States) the new Greek finance minister says that not only is he not bluffing adding "that I have no right to bluff", but using recent military jargon says that "the lines that we have presented as red will not be crossed. Otherwise, they would not be truly red, but merely a bluff."






But what if this brings your people much pain? I am asked. Surely you must be bluffing. The problem with this line of argument is that it presumes, along with game theory, that we live in a tyranny of consequences. That there are no circumstances when we must do what is right not as a strategy but simply because it is ... right.



Against such cynicism the new Greek government will innovate. We shall desist, whatever the consequences, from deals that are wrong for Greece and wrong for Europe. The “extend and pretend” game that began after Greece’s public debt became unserviceable in 2010 will end. No more loans — not until we have a credible plan for growing the economy in order to repay those loans, help the middle class get back on its feet and address the hideous humanitarian crisis. No more “reform” programs that target poor pensioners and family-owned pharmacies while leaving large-scale corruption untouched.

Varoufakis then proceeds to further steamroll conventional analogies, saying next that what Greece is doing is nothing like game theory:






"If anything, my game-theory background convinced me that it would be pure folly to think of the current deliberations between Greece and our partners as a bargaining game to be won or lost via bluffs and tactical subterfuge. The trouble with game theory, as I used to tell my students, is that it takes for granted the players’ motives. In poker or blackjack this assumption is unproblematic. But in the current deliberations between our European partners and Greece’s new government, the whole point is to forge new motives. To fashion a fresh mind-set that transcends national divides, dissolves the creditor-debtor distinction in favor of a pan-European perspective, and places the common European good above petty politics, dogma that proves toxic if universalized, and an us-versus-them mind-set."

So German exporters reliant on a weak Deutsche Mark and insolvent European banks reliant on a ECB-subsidized monetary union at all costs, need a realginment of motives? That may comes as a surprise to them. And, of course, just like with the bluffing rebuttal, anyone engaging in a game theory strategy, will of course deny doing so.

And then in conclusion, just to throw everyone off, Varoufakis invokes none other than a German philosopher as the "major influence" behind his deliberation stratgy to tie it all together.






One may think that this retreat from game theory is motivated by some radical-left agenda. Not so. The major influence here is Immanuel Kant, the German philosopher who taught us that the rational and the free escape the empire of expediency by doing what is right.



How do we know that our modest policy agenda, which constitutes our red line, is right in Kant’s terms? We know by looking into the eyes of the hungry in the streets of our cities or contemplating our stressed middle class, or considering the interests of hard-working people in every European village and city within our monetary union. After all, Europe will only regain its soul when it regains the people’s trust by putting their interests center-stage.

That's the problem: Europe is doing what is right - for the people of those countries that have all the power and leverage - at the expense of those without, just as 'globalization' has done over the past century. And because Europe isn't and will never be a true federal union, to those same people who do benefit from the Eurozone, the suffering of a "few" tens of millions of "peripheral" Europeans is, to continue using military analogies, perfectly acceptable collateral damage.

* * *

In NYT Op-Ed, Yanis Varoufakis Says Greece Is Not Bluffing, "Will Not Cross Red Lines It Has Drawn" | Zero Hedge

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by pseudolus

Greece will not go down because they will sell their debt to Russia

EU is talking tough but figure they will fold and reach a compromise with Greece to prevent pushing Greece away from the EU. EU fears a domino effect. Or even worse in the eyes of the banking leaches. Default! Big stock market losses. I wouldn't mind holding Greece's hand. Greece never should have folded and agreed to the ridiculous austerity program from day one.

For the moment Russia has it's hands full shoring up it's own economic woes. Can't see a bail out from Russia. $375 billion and counting is a big chunk of dough.

Most likely true. They do have on conservative estimate about a trillion bucks in worthless FIAT money so perhaps they could be interested in loaning them that with repayment in Euros. Now that would piss of everyone.

Seems talks between the EU and Greece have broken down again.
Feb 28 is judgement day, the Greeks have withdrawn their money in mass from the Greek banks. Only thing stopping there collapse is other EU banks. Greece is not moving, the EU can't move, it's a banking problem.
Strange, no one seems to know what happens the day after the 7 billion loan doesn't appear, this money is to pay interest on Greek bonds, held mostly by, guess who, the banks.
Greek government says, they have enough money to pay wages and normal government costs for a few months and will continue on Taxes raised, as a country should.

EU seems to be between a rock and a hard place, can you throw the Greek people out for not paying private bank loans that a previous government borrowed from greedy banks.
Bit like you not paying your loans to the bank, your government then says you can no longer be a citizen.