Thread: Greek PM concedes election defeat

^But Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal together would. Or are you suggesting that if Greece leaves the EZ and thrives other nations wont follow.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

Originally Posted by Warrior

And everybody was happy to borrow them money.
If an indebted person asks another loan, he will be send away. If someone with small income asks for a loan...
But many - banks, countries - saw no problem in borrowing more money to the Greeks. If it is so obvious to you that the Greek are a bunch of losers, why wasn't that obvious to bankers?

Banks borrowed to Greece because European Union and ECB promised to take care of Greece and EURO no matter what, so easy no risk deal for the banks, why not take it. Blame is on both sides: Greeks borrowing, and EU promoting and allowing them to borrow.

I may be wrong, often am, but the way I read it, Greece did not borrow money from the IMF, ECB etc.
They borrowed money from private Greek banks, who borrowed from the IMF etc.
So in reality Greece may owe it's banks money, but the international debt is owed by private banks.

In that lays the problem, no matter what the EU or IMF do to Greece, those private banks still owe the money.

Yes, it does not matter how but the money ended in Greece and is not going to be paid back.

Originally Posted by OhOh

Or are you suggesting that if Greece leaves the EZ and thrives other nations wont follow.

For that to happen Greece must first thrive and that's not going to happen, and if it does it will take a very long time

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

Greece's economy, especially tourism, would thrive with own currency and heavy devaluation

Tourism probably, but only a few months of the year. It currently rakes in 7.4% of GDP. Not small at all, but not a saviour . . . and it is very regionalised.
Don't forget - 'heavy devaluation' also means less foreign currency
The economy as such won't recover to the extent wished for as international markets would be loathe to invest in a country that has such a massive debt overload . . . which it is defaulting on

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

But the insane political idea of EURO and the United States of Europe

Agreed. The idea of a EEC was a good one . . . the monster it has morphed into is ridiculoius

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

Yes, it does not matter how but the money ended in Greece and is not going to be paid back.

Then Greece will suffer longer and longer.

Greece needs FDI . . . how happy do you think other countries would be to lend Greece more money?
The greaseballs think they'll have a 'get out of jail' card if/when they default . . .

If the Greeks go down the exit route, who cares as long as the pound doesn't go down further.

I'm doing a contract for a Greek at present and he reckons if it does go to a referendum they will vote for the exit.

Originally Posted by OhOh

Taking the No. 1 product - Oil as an example, one could suggest that the ? oil industry needs a "float" to ensure the product can be collected, refined etc and then sold. If another country had all the necessary products to ensure the industry needs are matched what difference does it make if the ? use €, $ sea shells or barrels of oil. As long as what they are paid in has value.
The rest is just ensuring a hedge during the time the essentials are supplied and the selling of the product. The lender could of course also request some form of guarantee , a warm water port , a commitment to vote on issues in it's benefit, a contract to develop future oil reserves by the lender countries companies. Many ways are available and are normal business practice to some and corruption to others, but that's not a new situation.
Default on the odious loans and step on the new road of prosperity.

It could work, if you take out the word greek and put in the word ?

Originally Posted by panama hat

Tourism probably, but only a few months of the year. It currently rakes in 7.4% of GDP. Not small at all, but not a saviour

It's share would no doubt rise.

Originally Posted by panama hat

Don't forget - 'heavy devaluation' also means less foreign currency

Would promote Greeks to buy domestic products which would help domestic economy further

.

Originally Posted by panama hat

Agreed. The idea of a EEC was a good one . . . the monster it has morphed into is ridiculoius

Glad we can agree on something

Originally Posted by panama hat

Greece needs FDI . . . how happy do you think other countries would be to lend Greece more money?
The greaseballs think they'll have a 'get out of jail' card if/when they default . . .

That's why they need to develop their domestic economy to meet international standards, and to force them do that they need their own devalued currency instead of depending on social security from northern europe . Certainly no FDI in sight while Greece is in eurozone. Unless ECB/some EU scheme pays for insane projects, if you can call that FDI... then feel free to build 100 more highways ending in desert and starting from nowhere or never existing at all. No doubt large share of EU's fantasy world "investment and growth" scheme money sinks in there

Originally Posted by Horatio Hornblower

who cares as long as the pound doesn't go down further

If that was a joke, sorry a bit tired, missed it.

You can see EUR is falling heavily against GBP for example here (1Y chart)
XE.com - EUR/GBP Chart

Don't you watch Bloomberg?

[QUOTE="panama hat"]The greaseballs think they'll have a 'get out of jail' card if/when they default . . .

owe the bank £100 and you have a problem.
owe the bank £1 million and the bank has a problem.

Exit are you a expert in foreign affairs/markets.?

I only care about myself and my money if the greeks exit and the Euro suffers, good chance my pounds will benefit buying Thai baht.

The banks and all the other companies don't give a flying fuck about me you or any other members here,if they couldn't predict were markets where going before they ain't going to get it right this time.

There are currency wars going on around us and there's nothing we can do about anything except sit back wait and see what happens.

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

Originally Posted by Horatio Hornblower

who cares as long as the pound doesn't go down further

If that was a joke, sorry a bit tired, missed it.

You can see EUR is falling heavily against GBP for example here (1Y chart)
XE.com - EUR/GBP Chart

Don't you watch Bloomberg?

Originally Posted by Horatio Hornblower

as long as the pound doesn't go down further

I just responded to that, nothing else. Sorry if that offended you.

Originally Posted by Horatio Hornblower

Exit are you a expert in foreign affairs/markets.?

I only care about myself and my money if the greeks exit and the Euro suffers, good chance my pounds will benefit buying Thai baht.

The banks and all the other companies don't give a flying fuck about me you or any other members here,if they couldn't predict were markets where going before they ain't going to get it right this time.

There are currency wars going on around us and there's nothing we can do about anything except sit back wait and see what happens.

Don't see how Greek exist would effect the Pound one way or another to the Baht.
A smooth Greek exit from the Euro would probably increase the Euros value, dead weight gone.

Doubt I'd be offended by a avid follower of bloomberg.

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

Originally Posted by Horatio Hornblower

as long as the pound doesn't go down further

I just responded to that, nothing else. Sorry if that offended you.

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

As for EURGBP, or EURUSD, UK and US economies are much stronger than mainland europe, being real market economies, growing and flexible. Grexit might have relative influence but it's basically European uncompetitiveness with socialist policies, labour market inflexibility, EU regulations, lazy workforce because of easy social benefits and downshifters etc. that drives EUR down.

Easy social benefits in mainland Europe, as opposed to the UK, , ah yes, for example the Spanish and Romanian workforces are lazy because of all the social benefits they get. So are the Greek...
Germany is uncompetitive because of socialist policies...


Comedy gold, how do you come up with this hilarious stuff?

I did not make analysis of each country in europe separately (you'd need to pay me for that probably more you can afford), what I said is a snapshot of mainland Europe today.

Originally Posted by stroller

Germany is uncompetitive because of socialist policies

I definitely didn't say that. I said

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

only strongest countries like Germany and Finland in the eurozone

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

ECB and EU promised that all European taxpayers are backing the currency to the hilt (without asking said taxpayer, from Northern Europe).

I think Germany is part of Northern Europe.

Why you bother commenting every post I make, without reading them, PH?

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

... what I said is a snapshot of mainland Europe today.

No, it's a pretty inaccurate generalisation driven by bias, not to say so obviously flawed that it's kinda funny.

Why you bother commenting every post I make, without reading them, PH?

Uhh?

Originally Posted by stroller

No, it's a pretty inaccurate generalisation driven by bias.

You are free to give your comparable analysis. Let's hear it. A challenge!

Give the readers your analysis of EURO, European economy, EURUSD and EURGBP, effect of Grexit etc.

So every reader can choose what they believe is more accurate.

If you don't make comparable analysis, keep your mouth shut.

Originally Posted by stroller

Uhh?

You know what I mean.

Stalker
Amateur

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

Give the readers your analysis

Why don't you give the readers what they want and shut the fuck up... fucking oxygen thief.
Fuck off back to the shallow end.

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

Originally Posted by stroller

No, it's a pretty inaccurate generalisation driven by bias.

You are free to give your comparable analysis. Let's hear it. A challenge!

Give the readers your analysis of EURO, European economy, EURUSD and EURGBP, effect of Grexit etc.

So every reader can choose what they believe is more accurate.

If you don't make comparable analysis, keep your mouth shut.

Comparable to what, your inane assertions and indiscriminate generalisations, based on personal dislike and prejudice?
I already provided examples of where your claims are plainly wrong.

Originally Posted by stroller

Uhh?

You know what I mean.

Stalker
Amateur

Are you just confused, or do you have a mental problem of sorts?

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

you'd need to pay me for that probably more you can afford

Can he give you English lessons first, please? Maybe can give gud passport Yes?

Originally Posted by stroller

Are you just confused, or do you have a mental problem of sorts?

Oh, these rhetorical questions . . .

Syriza Left demands 'Icelandic' default as Greek defiance stiffens

Greek premier Alexis Tsipras threatens Europe's creditors with a "big no" unless they yield on debt servitude


The radical wing of Greece's Syriza party is to table plans over coming days for an Icelandic-style default and a nationalisation of the Greek banking system, deeming it pointless to continue talks with Europe's creditor powers.


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Syriza sources say measures being drafted include capital controls and the establishment of a sovereign central bank able to stand behind a new financial system. While some form of dual currency might be possible in theory, such a structure would be incompatible with euro membership and would imply a rapid return to the drachma.


The confidential plans were circulating over the weekend and have the backing of 30 MPs from the Aristeri Platforma or 'Left Platform', as well as other hard-line groupings in Syriza's spectrum. It is understood that the nationalist ANEL party in the ruling coalition is also willing to force a rupture with creditors, if need be.


"This goes well beyond the Left Platform. We are talking serious numbers," said one Syriza MP involved in the draft.


"We are all horrified by the idea of surrender, and we will not allow ourselves to be throttled to death by European monetary union," he told the Telegraph.

The militant views on the Left show how difficult it could be for premier Alexis Tsipras to rally his party's support for any deal that crosses Syriza's electoral 'red-lines' on pensions, labour rights, austerity, and debt-relief.

Yet they also strengthen his hand as talks with EMU creditors turn increasingly dangerous. Talks between Greece and its EU creditors fell apart once again on Sunday, leaving a final decision on a default to eurozone finance ministers.

Mr Tsipras warned over the weekend in the clearest terms to date that Greece's creditors should not push him too far. "Our only criterion is an end to the 'memoranda of servitude' and an exit from the crisis," he said.

"If Europe wants the division and the perpetuation of servitude, we will take the plunge and issue a 'big no'. We will fight for the dignity of the people and our sovereignty," he said.

It may soon be too late to push any accord through the German Bundestag and other EMU parliaments before June 30, when Greece faces a €1.6bn payment to the IMF. The interior ministry has already ordered governors and mayors to transfer their cash reserves to the central bank as a precaution, but even this is not enough to avert default without a deal.

Yet an official document released this evening in Athens appeared to throw down the gauntlet. "The government reiterates, in no uncertain terms, that no reduction in pensions and wages or increases, through VAT, in essential goods - such as electricity - will be accepted. No recessionary measure that undermines growth – the experiment has lasted long enough," it said.

European officials examined 'war game' scenarios of a Greek default in Bratislava on Thursday, admitting for the first time that they may need a Plan B after all. "It was a preparation for the worst case. Countries wanted to know what was going on," said one participant to AFP.

The creditors argue that 'Grexit' would be suicidal for Greece. They have been negotiating on the assumption that Syriza must be bluffing, and will ultimately capitulate. Little thought has gone into possibility that key figures in Athens may be thinking along entirely different lines.

Tasos Koronaki, the party secretary, said on Sunday that attempts to split the party will fail. "The government will not enter into any agreement that is not accepted by the parliamentary group. We are more united than ever," he said.

Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told Greek television that his country cannot accept an "unachievable fiscal plan" and warned creditors that the minimum damage from Grexit would exceed €1 trillion for the European financial system.

Syriza's Left Platform has studied the Icelandic model, extolled as a success story by the International Monetary Fund itself.

"The Greek banks must be nationalised immediately, along with the creation of a bad bank. There may have to be some restrictions on cash withdrawals," said one Syriza MP.

"The banks will go ape-s*** of course. We are aware that there will be a lot of lawsuits but at the end of the day we are a sovereign power," he said.

Deposit outflows from the banks are running near €400m a day and could at any moment turn into a national bank run. This is alarming in one sense, but it has advantages for Syriza hard-liners.

The immediate problem is landing in the lap of the European Central Bank, which has had to raise its emergency liquidity support (ELAs) for the Greek banks to €83bn. The ECB is ever further on the hook.

While Greek citizens are hiding their money in mattresses or parking it in foreign accounts, the wealth still exists and could be used to replenish new banks in the future.

"The more the deposit flight goes on, the easier Grexit will be," said one Syriza MP. "It is a trump card," said another.

Syriza has a strong ideological motive to strike at the financial elites. They view the banks as the nerve centre of an entrenched oligarchy that has run the country for more than half a century as a family business. Forcing these institutions into bankruptcy provides cover for a socio-political purge, best understood as a revolution.

Iceland is a tempting model for Greece, but the parallel can be pushed too far. The Nordic country seized control of its three big banks - Glitnir, Kaupthing, and Landsbanki - when the crisis span out of control in late 2008.

It wiped out shareholders and defaulted to foreign creditors - including British and Dutch retail depositors - setting off a storm of protest. Britain's Labour government briefly invoked anti-terror legislation. The governor of Iceland's central bank showed this reporter a document listing his institution along side al-Qaeda on the global blacklist, calling the British move "18th century gunboat diplomacy".

Iceland's internal banking system was rebuilt from scratch under state control with public funds equal to 30pc of GDP, and was shielded by capital controls. The boards were sacked. Some executives were prosecuted.

The banks kept their old names to maintain continuity for local depositors but they were essentially new institutions. Iceland gradually recovered and has since racked up impressive growth. Contrary to apocalyptic warnings, a 50pc devaluation proved to be part of the cure. The krona has since strengthened slightly against the euro.

However, Iceland has a very different society and economic structure. Quick stabilisation was possible only because the IMF and the Nordic countries stepped in with a $5bn rescue package.

Greece has already exhausted its IMF quota in the two failed rescues of 2010 and 2012, and is now at daggers drawn with the Fund's team in Athens. Some Syriza leader are demanding the head of Poul Thomsen, the IMF's programme chief.

They accuse him of working in cahoots with the oligarchy and pushing austerity beyond economic logic. The latest demands include a rise in VAT and pension cuts together worth 2pc of GDP by 2016, amounting to a pro-cyclical fiscal squeeze in an economy already in depression.

Tensions reached breaking point last week when the IMF pulled out of talks and flew back to Washington, though part of frustration is with the European institutions. It is hard to see how Greece could turn to the IMF for friendly help if the crisis leads to rupture. Much would depend on the quality of European statesmanship, and on how much political capital the US was prepared to spend sorting the problem out.

The IMF's view is in any case complex. It has warned EU officials behind closed doors that it will not continue to take part in Greek loan programmes unless the creditors accept a serious reduction in Greece's public debt burden.

While Greece's interest costs are just 2.5pc of GDP at the moment, they will jump to nearer 5pc in 2022 when the current debt deal expires. There is a high risk that the country would then be bankrupt again with little to show for a decade of austerity and depression.

Mr Tsipras faces a critical choice. If he accepts creditor demands, he may lose a large bloc of his own party and have to rely on the establishment parties to push the deal through the Greek parliament.

Such a course of action would render him a Greek version of Britain's Ramsey MacDonald, the Labour prime minister in the 1930s who enforced austerity and became the socialist figurehead of a Conservative national government.

MacDonald never overcame the accusations of betrayal by the Labour movement. He died a broken man.

Syriza Left demands 'Icelandic' default as Greek defiance stiffens - Telegraph

African countries can repay their loans . . . why can't Greece.

Quick question - how much debt has already been written off? 100 billion . . . does tat sound about right?

A different slant, not making the greasy slimeballs look like they have the upper hand:

Greece's latest attempt to reach deal with creditors collapses

Exit from eurozone a step closer as EU officials dismiss Alexis Tsipras’s reforms as incomplete, with talks halted after less than an hour

Last-ditch talks aimed at breaking the impasse between Athens and its international creditors have collapsed in acrimony with European Union officials dismissing Greece’s latest reform package as incomplete in a step that pushes the country closer to leaving the eurozone.

What had been billed as a last attempt to close the gap between Alexis Tsipras’s anti-austerity government and the bodies keeping debt-stricken Greece afloat was halted late on Sunday after less than an hour of negotiations in Brussels.

There is a significant gap between the plans of the Greek authorities and requirements of the commission, ECB and IMF

In a tersely worded statement, the European commission declared talks would resume when euro area finance ministers gather in Luxembourg on Thursday. The meeting could be decisive in determining the fate of a nation that is dependent on bailout funds from the EU and International Monetary Fund to avert default.

“While some progress was made, the talks did not succeed as there remains a significant gap between the plans of the Greek authorities and the joint requirements of the commission, European Central Bank and IMF,” the statement said. In fiscal terms, the differences amounted to €2bn (£1.45bn) a year in permanent budget savings.

Olivier Blanchard, chief economist at the International Monterary Fund (IMF), said Brussels should be prepared to delay more of Athens’ debt repayments.

The gulf between the sides prompted a call from the IMF’s chief economist for both sides to compromise further. Olivier Blanchard said Brussels should be prepared to delay more of Greece’s debt repayments, accept only limited reforms and cut the interest applied to debt-relief loans, while Tsipras should offer further pension reforms and accept that some VAT exemptions must be dropped.

“On the one hand, the Greek government has to offer truly credible measures to reach the lower target budget surplus and it has to show its commitment to the more limited set of reforms,” Blanchard wrote in his economic blog. “On the other hand, the European creditors would have to agree to significant additional financing and to debt relief sufficient to maintain debt sustainability.”

The intervention by Blanchard late on Sunday will be widely seen as supportive of the Greek position, though with the sting for Athens in his call for pension reform, which Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, repeated on Saturday was a dealbreaker.

With the future of Greece in the eurozone on the line as never before – and time now of the essence if Athens is to honour a €1.6bn debt repayment to the IMF on 30 June – the magnitude of the moment was not lost on Greek officials or the prime minister’s radical left Syriza party.

Yannis Dragasakis, the deputy prime minister who flew to Brussels to head talks, said Athens remained ready to conclude negotiations “with a mutually beneficial agreement”, suggesting there was still room for compromise.

Blaming foreign lenders for the breakdown in talks, he said the Greek government had submitted complementary proposals that “fully cover” the fiscal gap and the primary surplus – the two major sticking points between the two sides.

Creditors, he said, had insisted on pension cuts and increases in VAT both worth 1% of GDP – or €3.6bn – to close the projected gap, measures that Athens regards as untenable for a population already pauperised by five years of biting austerity. It was the second economic reform package to be proposed by the Greek government and rejected by creditors in June.

“Despite the presence of the Greek delegation in Brussels, there was no response on the part of the institutions [European commission, ECB and IMF] for discussions at the same [political] level or authorisations that would permit a solution to the issues that remain open,” Dragasakis said in a statement.

Euclid Tsakalotos, Greece’s chief negotiator, said it was clear “the opposite side did not have a mandate to negotiate”. He told the Guardian in a text message: “We made huge efforts to meet them halfway but they insisted on both pension cuts and the increase in VAT on restaurants and would not accept closing the gap even partially via administrative measures to reduce tax evasion, even though this was a central plank of our electoral programme. Moreover, they told us bluntly they had no mandate to discuss a compromise! So much for negotiating.”

With developments taking such a dramatic turn, opposition parties urged Prokopis Pavlopoulos, the head of state, to call an emergency meeting of political leaders. “The country has to remain intact within Europe and this has to be understood by everyone,” said the centrist party, To Potami. “We await a responsible reaction from the political leadership of the country.”

Negotiators, who included the young prime minister’s closest confidant Nikos Pappas, were due to return to Greece on Sunday night.

Failure to keep Greece in the euro, after years of arduous negotiations and two emergency bailouts totalling €240bn, would send it lurching into the unknown and mark a historic blow to the EU’s most ambitious project.

Greek officials flew to Brussels after Tsipras signalled he would soften his stance and accept painful compromises in return for promises to alleviate the country’s staggering debt.

Government sources had indicated that Athens was “very close” to sealing a deal that would release more than €7bn in bailout funds the country now desperately needs to avoid defaulting on loans to the IMF and ECB over the summer. Creditors have refused to disburse financial assistance since August as both sides have wrangled over reforms.

A gesture on the ever-contentious issue of Greek debt would also allow Tsipras to sell a deal to hardliners in Syriza, which was catapulted into power in January on a pledge to end five gruelling years of “self-defeating” austerity, and to Greeks at large.

At more than €320bn, the equivalent of 180% of the country’s entire economic output, Greece has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the EU with economists far and wide agreeing it is unsustainable. Following the breakdown in talks, leftwing militants implored the government not to concede on any measures that would entail “the extinction of the Greek people”.

Fears now abound that Greece could be heading for a Cyprus-style denouement with the ECB pulling the plug on the emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) it has been drip-feeding Greek banks. The Frankfurt-based institution has come under growing pressure to make such a move in recent weeks.

Indicative of the growing tensions between Athens and Berlin, the biggest contributor of Greece’s bailout programme to date, Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s vice-chancellor and head of the country’s Social Democratic party – who has long been seen as a friend of Greece – deplored the Greek government’s negotiating tactics in an article for Monday’s daily Bild newspaper.

“The game theorists of the Greek government are in the process of gambling away the future of their country,” he wrote in an excoriating critique of Varoufakis, whose academic expertise includes game theory. “Europe and Germany will not let themselves be blackmailed. And we will not let the exaggerated electoral pledges of a partly communist government be paid for by German workers and their families.”

Greece's latest attempt to reach deal with creditors collapses | Business | The Guardian

So you give up and fail.

Not a surprise. I didn't really think you would be able to make such analysis anyway, so I'm not disappointed.

Don't try to hide behind "I already provided examples" in some thread or other. Make clear and complete one page analysis comparable to mine (which is one scenario, as I mentioned).

If you don't make comparable analysis, keep your mouth shut.

Originally Posted by stroller

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

Originally Posted by stroller

No, it's a pretty inaccurate generalisation driven by bias.

You are free to give your comparable analysis. Let's hear it. A challenge!

Give the readers your analysis of EURO, European economy, EURUSD and EURGBP, effect of Grexit etc.

So every reader can choose what they believe is more accurate.

If you don't make comparable analysis, keep your mouth shut.

Comparable to what, your inane assertions and indiscriminate generalisations, based on personal dislike and prejudice?
I already provided examples of where your claims are plainly wrong.

Originally Posted by stroller

Uhh?

You know what I mean.

Stalker
Amateur

Are you just confused, or do you have a mental problem of sorts?