Thread: Buying Gold with my Thai savings?

Originally Posted by rickschoppers

^
Only if there is no major world crisis in the near future. Otherwise, your statement is true.

How do you know this is true, have you had a sneak preview into the future?

^
Since everyone seems to like pretty graphs and suppositions, here is a story and a couple of graphs. I know they will be torn apart by you experts, but my wish to buy gold is more to have a liquid commodity in case of a world crisis. It seems to me that gold has withheld the test of time to foot this bill no matter what it costs.

Even Another Cyprus-Style Crisis Can't Save Gold

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Published: Wednesday, 27 Mar 2013 | 10:20 PM ET
By: Marshall Gittler, Head of Global FX Strategy | IronFX Financial Services


Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Since the bailout deal was reached on Cyprus, the gold price has fallen. The decline suggests that gold is really in a weak position right now. I think the price is likely to fall further. Here's why.

The major global stock markets are doing really well this year: the S&P 500 is up about 10 percent, U.K. stocks are up about 1 percent in dollar terms and Japanese stocks up about 10 percent. Even with all the problems in Europe, the Euro Stoxx index is down only about 2 percent in dollar terms. By contrast, gold and silver are down about 5 percent. Platinum and palladium have also outperformed gold and silver. In fact it's hard to find any commonly held assets that have fallen as much as gold and silver.
Even government bonds, which yield almost nothing, have done better. So it's natural that a lot of people will be wondering, why am I holding gold when I could be making more money holding this other asset? That's probably why retail holdings of gold through exchange-traded funds have fallen 7 percent since peaking at the end of last year. Also professional positions in gold futures on the COMEX have fallen by 30 percent since peaking in October of last year.
(Read More: Investors May Hate Bonds, but They Keep Buying)
Why are people selling? It seems to me that there's been not so much of a change in the factors supporting gold as a change in investors' attitudes towards these factors, with one major exception.
One of the main factors supporting gold was the expansion of the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet. As the Fed pumped liquidity into the U.S. economy following the global financial crisis, the gold price rallied. But that relationship started to break down late last year and this year the two have diverged completely.



Gold vs Fed's Total Assets



The Fed's balance sheet has kept growing, but that fact hasn't been enough to keep people buying gold. Liquidity is no longer driving the gold price, and more quantitative easing won't necessarily push gold higher.Another reason investors were buying gold was the fear of inflation. Last year the price of gold pretty much tracked the U.S. break-even inflation rate, the implied inflation forecast derived from the inflation-linked fixed income market. Even that relationship has broken down, even though similar inflation forecasts are rising around the world, gold is no longer rising in tandem.

The reason that investors are no longer buying in accordance with these theoretically supportive factors may be the euro zone. Gold is a hedge against financial risk in general as well as inflation or currency debasement risk. One of the main risks in the global financial system recently has been the possible break-up of the euro zone. But that risk is receding, as we can see from the average weighted credit default swap (CDS) rate for the peripheral European countries.
Gold failed to rally even when the peripheral CDS rate hit its high last June; added to that the fact that the CDS rate has basically been headed lower since then suggests that gold is losing the other main support that it has.


Gold vs GIIPS Credit Default Swap Rate



So gold is still tracking the risk of a euro zone crisis - that's the factor where people's views haven't changed – except that despite the recent debacle over Cyprus, the risk of a euro zone crisis is still estimated to be much lower than it used to be.
So overall it looks like the major supporting points for gold are no longer supporting the metal. Either they are no longer pointing upward, like the credit default swap rates, or they are but the market is ignoring them, like the Fed's balance sheet or the implied inflation rate. This strikes me as a fundamental change in the demand picture for gold and a big negative going forward. I expect the price of the yellow metal to fall in the next few months to $1,540, according to a continuation of the current technical downtrend pattern, with further support likely at $1,490.
(Read More: Monetary Policy Is Not Loose Enough: Fed Official)
The author is the Head of Global FX Strategy at IronFX, an on-line trading firm specializing in Forex, CFDs on U.S. and U.K. stocks, and commodities. He was previously Head of the Forex Committee at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management.

^So we have established that gold is not in a bubble.

Everyone is bearish on gold. This is an ideal time to get in. Who cares if it falls a few percent more. If you thought you missed it , now is your chance.

I have been buying all year.

^
Not really sure what has been established, but I thought those who know a lot more about this topic than myself might like to debate all the points in the article.

Again, I will be purchasing gold just to put my money in something that might be able to be used in worst case scenario. I am not really concerned that much if the price goes up or down.

Buy anything non-physical and you're participating in the golabalist mafia run derivatives ponzi scheme. Pretty dumb after all that has happened.

Physical silver.

That is all.

Allan Jones signing off.

P.S. watch for chem-trails and fluoride in the water.

Originally Posted by rickschoppers

^
Not really sure what has been established, but I thought those who know a lot more about this topic than myself might like to debate all the points in the article.

Again, I will be purchasing gold just to put my money in something that might be able to be used in worst case scenario. I am not really concerned that much if the price goes up or down.

Everything that was in that article has been covered on this thread a half dozen times.

And the article is based on people buying/selling COMEX futures.

Why are people selling? It seems to me that there's been not so much of a change in the factors supporting gold as a change in investors' attitudes towards these factors

Something appears to have snapped in the American psyche as the last 30 days have seen the largest physical gold sales on record. Is anyone really selling real gold ?

» House Of Rothschild Hoarding Gold In Face Of Coming Collapse? Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!


listen to the Vid

Originally Posted by socal

^So we have established that gold is not in a bubble.

Everyone is bearish on gold. This is an ideal time to get in. Who cares if it falls a few percent more. If you thought you missed it , now is your chance.

I have been buying all year.

Story keeps changing. Before you said you bought at 1800 and now it's all year. You've been losing all year.

Good time to get in


Yeah buy while it falls for the next 10 years is a great idea.

Gold isn't a bubble market. It's a boom then slide down for 10-15 years. That's what it does.

1 You can't read a chart
2 You don't study history

Originally Posted by draco888

This prediction business is pretty easy is it not?

it's always easy to make predictions when an asset is in a bubble and fools keep falling for them,

the problem is the timing, an impossible task, since there is no shortage of fools in love with Gold in this world

Originally Posted by draco888

Which other period in history experienced so much money printing by central banks?

60s ? leading to the inflationary era of the 70s

how is Gold related to the Fed monetary policy when Gold is no longer a world standard for currency.

Oh, I forgot, bloggers think it is

Originally Posted by waradmiral

Gold isn't a bubble market. It's a boom then slide down for 10-15 years. That's what it does.

the story of most commodities, yet, amateur fools think they know it all because it went up 5 years in a row,

typical day trader thinking,

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by draco888

This prediction business is pretty easy is it not?

it's always easy to make predictions when an asset is in a bubble and fools keep falling for them,

the problem is the timing, an impossible task, since there is no shortage of fools in love with Gold in this world

Well if you say it's a bubble it must be true then.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by draco888

Which other period in history experienced so much money printing by central banks?

60s ? leading to the inflationary era of the 70s

how is Gold related to the Fed monetary policy when Gold is no longer a world standard for currency.

Oh, I forgot, bloggers think it is

The 1960's? Really?

Yeah there is no relation between gold and fed monetary policy at all. After all the fed monetary only affects currencies and nothing else, not bonds, stocks, real estate...

I think you have mentioned amateurs a few times previously.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by waradmiral

Gold isn't a bubble market. It's a boom then slide down for 10-15 years. That's what it does.

the story of most commodities, yet, amateur fools think they know it all because it went up 5 years in a row,

typical day trader thinking,

5 years?? I thought at least you could count!

Originally Posted by draco888

Yeah there is no relation between gold and fed monetary policy at all. After all the fed monetary only affects currencies and nothing else, not bonds, stocks, real estate...

you are assuming like socal 1.0 that there is a perfect correlation between Gold and the Fed monetary policy, I ask why it should be when Gold doesn't come into play in such policies ? I hope it clears it for you since you like to make all kind of jumps in assumptions.

Gold like any assets will have varying correlations with other assets, themselves influenced by changes in interest rates.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by draco888

Yeah there is no relation between gold and fed monetary policy at all. After all the fed monetary only affects currencies and nothing else, not bonds, stocks, real estate...

you are assuming like socal 1.0 that there is a perfect correlation between Gold and the Fed monetary policy, I ask why it should be when Gold doesn't come into play in such policies ? I hope it clears it for you since you like to make all kind of jumps in assumptions.

Gold like any assets will have varying correlations with other assets, themselves influenced by changes in interest rates.

why do you make these stupid assumptions about other peoples thinking? Who said there is a perfect correlation? and when did they say it?

Originally Posted by waradmiral

Originally Posted by socal

^So we have established that gold is not in a bubble.

Everyone is bearish on gold. This is an ideal time to get in. Who cares if it falls a few percent more. If you thought you missed it , now is your chance.

I have been buying all year.

Story keeps changing. Before you said you bought at 1800 and now it's all year. You've been losing all year.

Good time to get in


Yeah buy while it falls for the next 10 years is a great idea.

Gold isn't a bubble market. It's a boom then slide down for 10-15 years. That's what it does.

1 You can't read a chart
2 You don't study history

I am not the one who doesn't study history. It what currency do you think gold will fall in from here ?

This isn't the first time I have made these calls. How about 3 years ago when I made the same call ? The reasons I was correct on gold back then are the same reasons why I am making the same call now.

Note the date of the calls And what other people like you were saying at the time. Looks like you just joined the club
26-08-2010, 11:39 AM #2 (permalink (Gold price may rocket to 19,000 THB/1-baht weight) (Gold price may rocket to 19,000 THB/1-baht weight)) socal
Cheney/Rumsfeld 2012



Last Online: Today 01:20 PM
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Canada
Posts: 6,119




It could easily double in the next couple years.

Gold price $1195

And what were guys like you saying 3 years ago ?

26-08-2010, 12:04 PM #5 (permalink (Gold price may rocket to 19,000 THB/1-baht weight) (Gold price may rocket to 19,000 THB/1-baht weight)) sabang
Senior Member



Last Online: Today 01:02 PM
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: There
Posts: 22,323



Smart people are selling gold.

Gold price $1195

What was Butterfly, who has wrong as a middle names saying ?

25-06-2010, 08:53 PM #59 (permalink (Buying Gold with my Thai savings?)) Butterfly
Suspended Member



Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 35,436



what was your point again ? oh yeah, gold, and how to buy an overvalued asset

don't listen to fools and hype, when the public is starting to buy gold, it's time to dump your holdings

Gold price $1200

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by draco888

Which other period in history experienced so much money printing by central banks?

60s ? leading to the inflationary era of the 70s

how is Gold related to the Fed monetary policy when Gold is no longer a world standard for currency.

Oh, I forgot, bloggers think it is

At least you have some company in warindmar for being wrong 3 years from now..

25-06-2010, 08:53 PM #59 (permalink (Buying Gold with my Thai savings?)) Butterfly
Suspended Member



Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 35,436



^^ yes a lot of rich Thai also keep hundreds of empty condos
oh yeah, gold, and how to buy an overvalued asset

don't listen to fools and hype, when the public is starting to buy gold, it's time to dump your holdings

Gold price $1200

Originally Posted by beazalbob69

Originally Posted by socal

Is anyone really selling real gold ?

Yeah estate sales from old people who collected gold their whole life and then died without actually selling any of it to make a profit.

Why buy physical gold as a investment if most people never sell it to take advantage of price spikes?

Whenever my Wife and I have some extra money we(She) like to buy some gold jewelry usually Thai gold 1 baht chains. We will probably never sell any of this gold. Is it just nice to have so when the price spikes you can say to everyone "We just got rich because we have a lot of gold and it just went up 40%" even though you are never gonna take any of it to the gold shop and cash it in?

The way I see it most people who own gold have money already and never get rid of their gold so it's kind of pointless other than just for collecting and hobby. Edit: and oh yeah arguing about the pro's and con's of it on the internet of course!

So storing value, untaxed, over time is pointless ?

What would you do with $200,000 right now if you had to invest it ?

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by draco888

Yeah there is no relation between gold and fed monetary policy at all. After all the fed monetary only affects currencies and nothing else, not bonds, stocks, real estate...

you are assuming like socal 1.0 that there is a perfect correlation between Gold and the Fed monetary policy, I ask why it should be when Gold doesn't come into play in such policies ? I hope it clears it for you since you like to make all kind of jumps in assumptions.

Gold like any assets will have varying correlations with other assets, themselves influenced by changes in interest rates.

You mean interest rates change ? So you are admitting that interest rates actually change. So this 33 year bond bull market will end eventually ? And this will be bullish for the US dollar ?

I have not lived a day on this earth where bond prices fell yet gold is the bubble..

12 years vs 33 years..

Originally Posted by socal

Originally Posted by beazalbob69

Originally Posted by socal

Is anyone really selling real gold ?

Yeah estate sales from old people who collected gold their whole life and then died without actually selling any of it to make a profit.

Why buy physical gold as a investment if most people never sell it to take advantage of price spikes?

Whenever my Wife and I have some extra money we(She) like to buy some gold jewelry usually Thai gold 1 baht chains. We will probably never sell any of this gold. Is it just nice to have so when the price spikes you can say to everyone "We just got rich because we have a lot of gold and it just went up 40%" even though you are never gonna take any of it to the gold shop and cash it in?

The way I see it most people who own gold have money already and never get rid of their gold so it's kind of pointless other than just for collecting and hobby. Edit: and oh yeah arguing about the pro's and con's of it on the internet of course!

So storing value, untaxed, over time is pointless ?

What would you do with $200,000 right now if you had to invest it ?

I would find a growing and prospering country and invest that money into land in said country. And I would also make sure this land had a nice large supply of clean fresh water preferably underground and out of site, as I believe drinking water is a solid investment for the future especially in the countries that are growing now like Asia.

I fear the day when the shit hit's the fan and all I have left is a lot of physical gold. Who is gonna take it? How much will it get me in food and water? How will I protect it from others wanting it for themselves?

I dont discount the likelyhood of the the price of gold rising in the future as it most likely will rise, but like I said most people I have seen with gold never sell it. They hold onto it because it's valuable until they die which made that gold useless to them, plus they had to spend the money on the gold in the 1st place.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

typical day trader thinking,

Some of these typical day traders manage to get even fatter than wage slaves such as yourself butters. Do you really think day traders are still going long on gold?

Just because you die without having sold it how does this mean it is useless? Is the cash in your bank also count as being useless because you have not spent it? Is the aim to spend your last baht on the day you die? Will the recipients of your assets on your death view the gold as useless?

Originally Posted by beazalbob69

Originally Posted by socal

Originally Posted by beazalbob69

Originally Posted by socal

Is anyone really selling real gold ?

Yeah estate sales from old people who collected gold their whole life and then died without actually selling any of it to make a profit.

Why buy physical gold as a investment if most people never sell it to take advantage of price spikes?

Whenever my Wife and I have some extra money we(She) like to buy some gold jewelry usually Thai gold 1 baht chains. We will probably never sell any of this gold. Is it just nice to have so when the price spikes you can say to everyone "We just got rich because we have a lot of gold and it just went up 40%" even though you are never gonna take any of it to the gold shop and cash it in?

The way I see it most people who own gold have money already and never get rid of their gold so it's kind of pointless other than just for collecting and hobby. Edit: and oh yeah arguing about the pro's and con's of it on the internet of course!

So storing value, untaxed, over time is pointless ?

What would you do with $200,000 right now if you had to invest it ?

I would find a growing and prospering country and invest that money into land in said country. And I would also make sure this land had a nice large supply of clean fresh water preferably underground and out of site, as I believe drinking water is a solid investment for the future especially in the countries that are growing now like Asia.

I fear the day when the shit hit's the fan and all I have left is a lot of physical gold. Who is gonna take it? How much will it get me in food and water? How will I protect it from others wanting it for themselves?

I dont discount the likelyhood of the the price of gold rising in the future as it most likely will rise, but like I said most people I have seen with gold never sell it. They hold onto it because it's valuable until they die which made that gold useless to them, plus they had to spend the money on the gold in the 1st place.