Thread: Thai Baht Rates .

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Looking at the trend the volatility of the £ is assured for the next year, at least, with lows hitting parity with the $ on the odd occasion looking increasingly likely. In truth, given it is only sentiment that is driving this depreciation ( most of the world thinks Brexit is fucking stupid) and not the actual trading losses that will ensue if there is a hard Brexit, the current falls are over-cooked and I can see the £ getting back to 1.30.
The £ has a chance of re-establishing itself provided the current lunacy of messrs Davis, Fox and Johnson is ditched for common sense and Britain keeps free movement and its tariff free status.

Anything less and then it's curtains for the next decade.

The seventies again is the future but when Labour returns to government, which they surely will do if the disaster of a hard Brexit is realised, then the blood will truly be on the floor.

your domesday scenario just doesnt wash.

a weak pound will serve the uk well over the next few years.



Britain should embrace weaker pound and it needs to fall further, says former BoE governor and currency guru.


The slump in sterling is a blessing in disguise after years of overvaluation and helps to break the corrosive stranglehold of the financial elites over the British economy, according to a former bail-out chief for the International Monetary Fund.

“It is desirable from every point of view. The idea that Britain is in crisis or is on its knees before the exchange rate vigilantes is ludicrous,” said Ashoka Mody, the IMF’s former deputy-director for Europe and now at Princeton University.

“The UK economy is rebalancing amazingly well. It is a stunning achievement that a once-in-fifty-year event should have gone to smoothly,” he told the Telegraph.

[Sterling's fall] is desirable from every point of view. The idea that Britain is in crisis or is on its knees before the exchange rate vigilantes is ludicrous
Ashoka Mody
Professor Mody, who led the EU-IMF Troika rescue for Ireland, said the pound had been driven up to nose-bleed levels from 2011 to 2015 by global property speculators and the banking elites acting in destructive synergy, causing serious damage to Britain’s manufacturing base and long-term competitiveness.

The role of the City as the unrivalled financial centre of Europe made it a magnet for speculative property flows from Russia, China, the Mid-East, and the wider world, a bubble that was further leveraged by cheap dollar credit though global banks operating in London.


“It was essentially a bank-property nexus, and the rest of the economy was left to suffer. It is stunning that just 1.4pc of all loans were going to the manufacturing sector,” he said.

The country was suffering a variant of the ‘Dutch Disease’, although in this case the problem was over-reliance on finance rather than commodities.

I don't think we should fear [Brexit]. It's not a bed of roses, but nor is it the end of the world
Lord King
“Britain was borrowing 5pc to 6pc of GDP a year to buy imports and live beyond its means. The strong pound was great if you wanted to buy a Mercedes Benz of take a holiday in Spain, but the prosperity was an illusion, borrowed from the future,” he said.

Prof Mody said the pound was 20pc to 25pc overvalued in trade-weighted terms before the Brexit campaign got underway, based on classic IMF measures of the real effective exchange rate (REER). This currency distortion would have inflicted deep damage if it had been allowed to continue for another five years.

“History is going to judge that Brexit at last broke the political-economy lock of a British elite wedded to banking interests, even if it happened completely by accident,” he said.


Britain’s current account deficit was 5.9pc of GDP in the second quarter, the highest in the developed world and has been flashing warning signals for years.

While views differ on the level of overvaluation, this chronic deficit is prima facie evidence of a misalignment.

Lord King, the former Governor of the Bank of England, echoed the comments on sterling, saying the sell-off was largely welcome.

"During the referendum campaign, someone said the real danger of Brexit is you'll end up with higher interest rates, lower house prices and a lower exchange rate, and I thought: dream on.

Because that's what we've been trying to achieve for the past three years and now we have a chance of getting it."

"I don't think we should fear [Brexit]. It's not a bed of roses, but nor is it the end of the world," he told Sky News.

"History is going to judge that Brexit at last broke the political-economy lock of a British elite wedded to banking interests, even if it happened completely by accident"
Ashoka Mody

Prof Mody said ‘fair value’ for sterling is around $1.10 against the US dollar, implying a further fall of around 11pc. “There is some likelihood that it is will overshoot and reach parity, but my reaction as a policy-maker is to ask ‘what’s the big deal’,” he said.

The latest sell-off was triggered by the tough Brexit rhetoric from Theresa May and top ministers at the Tory party conference last week, dashing hopes for a compromise option that includes passporting rights for the City and full access to the single market.

Morgan Stanley has raised the likelihood of a ‘hard Brexit’ from 55pc to 70pc, but said it is still far from clear whether the Prime Minister can really persist with the current line given the bitter divisions in the country.

The US bank suggested that there may be a “technical fix” that would allow some form of shared decision-making with the EU without Britain having to submit to the European Court, as well as a fudge on free movement of workers through so-called ‘economic work visas’.

David Meier from the Swiss bank Julius Baer said the conference rhetoric should be taken with a pinch of salt. “We have our doubts that UK officials really believe in what they are signalling.

A hard Brexit with loss of single market access would severely damage the economy and cause many firms to relocate into the EU market. We think Mrs May is simply rattling her sabre,” he said.


The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has so far kept a stiff upper lip. “Markets go up and down, markets respond to noise,” he said, following the ‘flash crash’ last Friday.

“The important thing is to look through the movements of currency markets and short-term movements in sentiment,” he said.

Simon Derrick from BNY Mellon said there is almost nothing they can do about it anyway – short of changing their Brexit strategy – since the Bank of England’s total foreign reserves are just $173bn. This is petty cash in global finance.

Any attempt to defend sterling by raising interest rates would risk aborting the recovery, and might prove self-defeating in any case. “There is no line in the sand,” he said.

Devaluations are never a panacea - and can have nasty side-effects - but in the short-run they act as a macro-economic stimulus and help the cushion economic shocks.

A weaker currency has lost its ability to frighten in a deflationary world where most of the major advanced states or economic blocs are trying to drive down their exchange rates to break out of the liquidity trap. Britain has inadvertently stolen a march in an undeclared global currency war.


For the fragile eurozone economy, the opposite dynamic is playing out. The pound is one of the largest components of the euro’s trade-weighted index, and the 20pc fall since late last year has the side-effect of further tightening the deflationary noose.

The exchange rate has now fallen so far that most eurozone exporters selling into Britain can no longer absorb the currency effect by shaving their profit margins. They increasingly face the risk of declining sales and market share.

Prof Mody said eurozone leaders may be on thinner ice than they care to admit. “They are in a debt-deflation cycle, and it is self-reinforcing,” he said.

French president Francois Hollande has now openly stated that his desired policy is to “threaten” Britain and make the country “pay a price”. The more he succeeds, the more painful the blowback into France.


Britain should embrace weaker pound and it needs to fall further, says former BoE governor and currency guru

Before the £1 tumbled I was getting 30% on the £1 in petrol stations in Donegal and the petrol is already cheaper down there plus 30% , it's now 15% on the £1 sad days ,

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

In truth, given it is only sentiment that is driving this depreciation ( most of the world thinks Brexit is fucking stupid) and not the actual trading losses that will ensue if there is a hard Brexit, the current falls are over-cooked and I can see the £ getting back to 1.30.

Originally Posted by Begbie

The pound is in series of steps in between each stupid announcement. The next drop may not be until article 50 is announced in early 2017 so there's room for a small recovery before then. After that another drop to parity.

Some analysts are saying the drop was excessive and a rebound is likely. Others are saying that if it drops below the 1.0986 barrier it could drop still further to 1.06 and worse. (well in my case better)

I am buying some Pounds at the end of the week but keeping back the bulk buy for a little longer....

Fujitsu announces restructuring, 16,400 layoffs

Fujitsu Ltd. disclosed plans today to lay off 16,400 workers worldwide as part of a business reform across its entire organization. The restructuring, which the company said will cost $2.5 billion, is Fujitsu's answer to deteriorating business conditions in many of its business units worldw
Large shops will find many reasons for making the switch. Businesses of other sizes might have to do a
READ NOW
The main strategy of the plan is to shift the company's business activities toward software, said Naoyuki Akikusa, president and CEO of Tokyo-based Fujitsu. The company's service and software division was the best performing of its four main internal divisions in the most recent quarter, beating the information processing, telecommunications and electronic devices sectors.

The extraordinary cost of the reform plan is broken down as $685 million in the information processing group, $375 million in the telecommunications group, $1.2 billion in the electronic devices group and $250 million in the service and software group, the company announced.

The company's restructuring will force a total of 16,400 people out of work, of which 11,400 will be overseas and 5,000 in Japan. To reform quickly, the company needs to rebuild the business to return to profit in one region, so most of the job cuts will take place abroad and not in Japan, explained Akikusa. An additional 4,700 people in Japan will be affected as part of personnel transfers to the service and software sector from other sectors, according to Fujitsu.

Fujitsu announces restructuring, 16,400 layoffs | Computerworld

Originally Posted by taxexile

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Looking at the trend the volatility of the £ is assured for the next year, at least, with lows hitting parity with the $ on the odd occasion looking increasingly likely. In truth, given it is only sentiment that is driving this depreciation ( most of the world thinks Brexit is fucking stupid) and not the actual trading losses that will ensue if there is a hard Brexit, the current falls are over-cooked and I can see the £ getting back to 1.30.
The £ has a chance of re-establishing itself provided the current lunacy of messrs Davis, Fox and Johnson is ditched for common sense and Britain keeps free movement and its tariff free status.

Anything less and then it's curtains for the next decade.

The seventies again is the future but when Labour returns to government, which they surely will do if the disaster of a hard Brexit is realised, then the blood will truly be on the floor.

your domesday scenario just doesnt wash.

a weak pound will serve the uk well over the next few years.

Oh dear, Tax, you really do have a soft spot for academics but falling in with this weird polemicist is just plain daft.

The depreciation of the £ compared to the $ is not from "nosebleed" high levels as that silly fuck has stupidly and erroneously put it. The £ has historically been at £1 to $1.50 as a default position for fucking decades in between bouts of volatility. The highest levels were of course back in 2003 ish when at one stage I got near to $2 but it hasn't been anywhere that point for over a decade. For the £ to fall to such low levels for no reason other than fear arising from an event is actually quite the exception and rather telling of the seriousness of just how fucking stupid Brexit is.

I am consistently surprised by your inability to sift through the chatter of the market place, distinguishing between mere fishwife tittle tattle and intelligent comment. Quite poor really and yet another reason for doubting that dental surgeons require intellectual rigour to attain qualification.

Let me give you a little lesson to aid your comprehension, Tax.

The UK suffered mightily from excessive debt and an imbalance in its economy. 2008 was a bad thing. Our current account deficit is really quite woeful. But, despite the criticisms of socialist inclined economists and pontificating emeritus professors resting on their laurels picked from the groves of academe, the process of restoring tight controls on public expenditure, freezing wages and maintaining nugatory interest rates allowing the banks protection to re-grow their assets i.e. austerity, the UK was emerging quite well from recession in 2015. Indeed, so much so that the IMF declared that the UK was leading Europe and showing it the way. The same fucking organisation that employed that silly prick Mody who of course has signally failed to state that it is the USA itself which has an undervalued currency but he knows that if the US raises interest rates then his precious third world will have to pay for their debt addictions and that's a really big, big problem that threatens any world recovery. You beginning to understand the complexity here, Tax?

Anyway, back to our little lesson. It's a short one, so bear with me. The Brexit fuckwits won the vote in June and the £ fell further from its previously Brexit influenced decline that began some months before. Indeed, from its healthy ratio with the baht of £1 to 54 in November 2015 it fell to a new low of 46 two weeks ago. The Queen Bitch May suckling her Bastard Buffoon Trio at the Tory conference ensured the £ fell further and we now rest at 42 baht with every sign that it will fall further to $1. 18 or lower.

Now why is that? Is it because of the UK's current account deficit? The manufacturing contribution to GDP as a percentage of 9%, the productivity rate of British workers, the price of fucking fish in the North Sea, Putin's cock is getting hard for Ukraine? Nope, not at all.

The reason why the £ is falling out of bed is the single issue that the UK, with all its myriad economic facets, will fuck itself up the arse if it is compelled to leave the EU single market because of a doctrinal adherence to immigration by the Tory nazi right wing. The entire fucking world and its markets think that the UK's economy will suffer grievously if it turns its back on the EU and forsakes its free trading status with that bloc.

The £ falling to $1 will not help it at all other than some initial nugatory fillip for manufacturing and tourism - combined they account for 19% of GDP - and the economy across the board will fall into stagflation.

Now Hammond and the Treasury know this. They know that the UK cannot afford to lose the benefit of the EU market and its workforce which contributed mightily to our emergence from recession. They know we must keep access to the single market not least because it is our only buffer against future world recession. They know it and the fucking world knows it.

The only folk who don't realise it are the idiotic Brexit numpties who have no evidence to back up their rhetoric other than wishful thinking.

Britain is on the precipice of ruination and don't delude yourself. The £'s fall is a but a mere symptom of impending total collapse and is not a panacea that will transform the economy into a steroid-pumping dynamic world beater. Only a fucking idiot or Boris Johnson would believe that.

I see from some headline articles appearing in the British press that the £ sterling is now being considered by traders as an " emerging market "currency.

Reckon that says it all.

This surely has to be the worst self-inflicted disaster since Churchill restored the Gold Standard.

We is fucked.

And the real kicker is, the fucking idiots who voted for this madness simply haven't a clue as to what is happening.

"Pound sees further volatile trading

On Tuesday, it had fallen more than 2%, dropping below $1.21, while against the euro it fell below €1.10.

The pound has now fallen about 18% against the dollar since the referendum, to levels not seen since 1985.

"Unfortunately this volatility in the pound is unlikely to end until there is greater clarity around Brexit," said market analyst Angus Nicholson of IG in Melbourne.

He added that the rise in Asian trading may be driven by Prime Minister Theresa May making a late amendment to the terms of a debate on Wednesday, seen by traders as effectively giving Parliament a vote on the terms of Brexit."

Pound sees further volatile trading - BBC News

And the real kicker is, the fucking idiots who voted for this madness simply haven't a clue as to what is happening.

when it comes to economics, there are no certainties, most of it is assumption , guesswork and hope, it is not a verifiable science with proven facts based on the results of experiment.

none of the pundits, experts or forum windbags know with any certainty what may or may not happen.

we are all right until we are wrong, or vice versa.

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

And the real kicker is, the fucking idiots who voted for this madness simply haven't a clue as to what is happening.

Why do you keep ranting on about it ? Can you do anything about it ? No. So, shut up , you are getting on people's nerves.

^ It is always a pleasure getting the confirmation of having hit a nerve.

Thai bhat's taking a dive.

good news for TheGent, THB will be falling soon

Originally Posted by ENT

Thai bhat's taking a dive.

Already moved from 1-2 points in less than 12 hours.
I would expect a great steady rise for the next week or two.

Thai baht tumbles amid political uncertainty

The value of the Thai baht is tumbling today.

The currency is down by 0.8% at 35.720 per dollar as of 7:31pm local time

Critical issues this week could ‘plunge the country back into political crisis, which in turn could push the economy into recession,’ warned argued Capital Economics’ Krystal Tan and Gareth Leather.

As for the rest of the world, here’s the scoreboard as of 7:33 a.m. ET:

The British pound is up by 1.1% at 1.2262 against the dollar after touching a low of $1.2106 overnight. “The catalyst came from Theresa May, who promised MPs a ‘full and transparent debate’ on the form the Brexit eventually takes.

It’s not a formal vote on the issue, but it’s better than nothing, and has momentarily put to bed the fears of a hard exit from the EU, allowing sterling a chance to recapture some lost ground,” Connor Campbell, financial analyst for SpreadEx, said in an email this morning.

The Russian ruble is up by 0.3% at 62.4998 per dollar, while prices for Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, are up by 0.6% at $52.80 per barrel.

The Japanese yen is lower by 0.1% at 103.63 per dollar.

The US dollar index is little changed at 97.71 ahead of JOLTS, which will be out at 10 a.m. ET, and the September FOMC minutes, which will be out at 2 p.m. ET.

Thai baht tumbles amid political uncertainty - BangkokJack - Bangkok News

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

The entire fucking world and its markets think that the UK's economy will suffer grievously if it turns its back on the EU and forsakes its free trading status with that bloc.

The £ falling to $1 will not help it at all other than some initial nugatory fillip for manufacturing and tourism - combined they account for 19% of GDP - and the economy across the board will fall into stagflation.

Now Hammond and the Treasury know this. They know that the UK cannot afford to lose the benefit of the EU market and its workforce which contributed mightily to our emergence from recession. They know we must keep access to the single market not least because it is our only buffer against future world recession. They know it and the fucking world knows it.

APPLAUSE!

But what if the UK can somehow miraculously keep the EU trade benefits, and also control immigration more thoughtfully in line with legit national security concerns? What a wonderful world that would be.

Originally Posted by thaimeme

Originally Posted by ENT

Thai bhat's taking a dive.

Already moved from 1-2 points in less than 12 hours.
I would expect a great steady rise for the next week or two.

Sorry, but you are being irrational. The next few days will see a crash. I want to see the pound increase in value against the baht but I did not want it to happen for the reasons I think it is going to happen. I fear that the immediate future for Thailand is going to be very sad and I truly regret this.

Originally Posted by can123

Why do you keep ranting on about it ? Can you do anything about it ? No. So, shut up , you are getting on people's nerves.

Kindly speak for yourself rather than others...The Gent is not getting on my nerves.

IMO the Brexiteers need to be told every minute of every day just how stupid they have been.

Originally Posted by taxexile

when it comes to economics, there are no certainties, most of it is assumption , guesswork and hope, it is not a verifiable science with proven facts based on the results of experiment.

One thing is certain in economics; uncertainty => volatile => bad egg. Not knowing what you are doing nor where you are going is leaning heavily towards uncertainty.

Originally Posted by Troy

Kindly speak for yourself rather than others...The Gent is not getting on my nerves.

IMO the Brexiteers need to be told every minute of every day just how stupid they have been.

Sir, you are a dope, as is SeekingAsylum. I speak on behalf of those who are not dopey.

^ Yes of course...

...the price of Sovereignty is not cheap...

...as you have found out to your cost and I to my benefit.

Now which one was the dope again?

^

There is no doubt. It's you and the Sausagemeister. Everybody knows that.

^ Copernicus and Galileo vs the Catholic Church....

Originally Posted by Troy

^ Copernicus and Galileo vs the Catholic Church....

Much more like Tweedledum and Tweedledee v The Crow.

nearly touched 36 today. love it. hit 40!