Thai elections 2011-Thai PM sets stage for tough election

**Buksida** · 25-06-2011, 07:32 AM

Originally Posted by Takeovers

Originally Posted by Buksida

A credible opposition is vital for democracy, something those cheering for a PT landslide don't seem concerned about.

Agree totally with the first part.

Don't agree with the second part, because anything less than the majority of all seats is too easily stolen from them, again. Driving the PT from governing the country with more than 250 votes will make the cheating obvious.

Also with one party able to rule alone they are the only ones to blame if they fail.

It's not having 250 seats that worries me, but when they get above 30O and Thaksins still running round buying MPs and saying seats that aren't his don't get funding.

It's happened before, he'll do it again, notice how his sister got in unamimously.

As for accountability if they fail, who will be doing the blaming? Are you expecting the likes of Chalerm, Snoah and Jataporn to care anyway?

Always good for a laugh the red dreamers, cheering Yingluck as she helicopters in for a photo op with the peasents, then flies out to see her son at Harrow - the next best thing to Eton.

**Mid** · 25-06-2011, 08:16 AM

Soldiers to facilitate polling in restive south
Santibhap Ussavasodhi

BANGKOK, 24 June 2011 (NNT) – The Defence Council’s meeting has ordered that military personnel take care of safety during the election in the three southernmost provinces and is ready to help transport ballot boxes if requested.

According to Defence Ministry Spokesperson Colonel Thanathip Sawangsaeng, Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan ordered military personnel to help ensure safety during the election period, especially in the restive south. However, their role will be to assist the police which will be the principle force in the maintenance of public safety.

The military might help transport ballot boxes for polling stations along the border and in the three southernmost provinces. Transportation will also be provided for people residing in the restive south to go and cast their votes for their safety.

Military units are instructed to promote public relations campaigns encouraging families of military personnel to go and cast their votes and to deny money from vote buying; however, no restriction on political opinion expression is made.

The resolutions were made on Thursday at the Defence Council’s meeting chaired by the defence minister, which was the last meeting of the council in the current administration. The next meeting will be held at the end of July and will be chaired by Permanent Secretary for Defence General Kittipong Keskowit.

thainews.prd.go.th

**Butterfly** · 25-06-2011, 09:20 AM

Originally Posted by Buksida

Thais didn't have much respect for this and his humble nature, instead they prefer arrogant, aggressive leaders like Samak and Thaksin.

hilarious, isn't it ? see how much he is hated here by those same farangs who are devoted to Thaksin, usually chavs and American redneck conservatives. White trailer trash rooting for white face Chinese authoritarians.

Originally Posted by Buksida

The Dems these days are a joke, a high school marketing student could have come up with a better campaign.

they are taking politics too seriously, they should learn from the "Faux News" style marketing of PT

**StrontiumDog** · 25-06-2011, 09:33 AM

Bangkok Post : Smaller parties surrender party list vote battle to Pheu Thai

INPrint

Smaller parties surrender party list vote battle to Pheu Thai

Published: 25/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News

The penultimate stage before the last stretch of campaigning for the July 3 general election sees Pheu Thai Party's popularity rising in the North and the Northeast, notes Post Today.

Opinion polls suggest that Pheu Thai is now galloping ahead of its rivals in the two regions, so much so that candidates of small and medium sized parties which still have a fighting chance against Pheu Thai Party's candidates in some constituencies are now abandoning the campaigns for both party list candidates and constituency candidates, and concentrating on the latter.

Chartthaipattana Party leader Chumphol Silpa-archa seemed ready to concede defeat, especially in Isan. "The target of 30-35 seats is now receding by about 5-10%, especially the party list candidates whose popularity even lags behind Chuwit Kamolvisit's Rak Thailand," said Mr Chumphol, adding that all party candidates in Isan seem to have no hope of winning with the sole exception of Tun Jintavej in Ubon Ratchathani's Constituency 11.

Even Pheu Thai's splinter group Bhumjaithai does not seem able to stem Pheu Thai's popularity in Isan. Bhumjaithai candidates now tell their constituents that they can go ahead and choose Pheu Thai list candidates but help elect them to represent Isan people.

Some even have resorted to pleading that Bhumjaithai candidates are as loyal to Thaksin Shinawatra as rival candidates from Pheu Thai.

This could be seen from the fact that Phirom Pholviset told Isan voters that Bhumjaithai would join the coalition government to support Yingluck Shinawatra as the first female prime minister of Thailand.

Pheu Thai responded immediately, saying the party would not welcome Bhumjaithai into a coalition government it heads.

Yet Bhumjaithai candidates persist in their strategy of convincing Isan voters that they are Thaksin loyalists as the party candidates used to belong to the People Power Party formed by Thaksin himself.

To counter this strategy, red shirt leaders Natthawut Saikua and Prompong Nopparit advised Pheu Thai candidates in the North and Northeast to tell the electorate that "people must choose candidates that are direct descendants from the main dissolved parties, not other candidates that left the parties and formed a splinter party. If the people don't elect our own kind, Thaksin cannot come back home."

According to a Pheu Thai source, about 17 provinces in Isan are seeing intense campaigning by Bhumjaithai candidates for themselves but are still telling voters to vote for the Pheu Thai party list in places such as Surin, Ubon Ratchathani, Nakhon Ratchasima, Yasothon, Amnat Charoen, Sakon Nakhon and Maha Sarakham provinces.

When the smaller parties abandon campaigning for party list candidates, it is no wonder that the latest Suan Dusit poll has found that the Pheu Thai party list is leading at 51.55% or about 64 seats, followed by the Democrat party at 34.05% or 43 seats, while smaller parties such as Bhumjaithai scored at 3% and Rak Thailand 2.48%.

Post Today speculates that leaders of smaller parties openly admitting early defeat was an oblique way of telling their constituency candidates that if any don't have a chance of winning, they will be cut off from the campaign fund immediately so that the limited amount of available money will be concentrated on Grade A candidates who are likely to succeed.

It is also interesting to note that Pheu Thai's goal of 16 million votes for party list candidates, or 70 seats, which was dismissed early on by the opposition and political pundits, is now feasible as Thaksin's and Ms Yingluck's popularity is getting close to that of Thai Rak Thai in 2005 when the party drew 19 million votes for the party list and the party won an overwhelming 377 MPs.

However, time will tell whether Pheu Thai can match the historic 2005 general election victory or get near enough that it can pass the magic number of 251 out of 500 House seats, or enough to govern in its own right, concludes Post Today.

Abolish credit bureau?

Political parties are campaigning hard to win the hearts and minds of the grass roots, as they comprise the largest number of votes in a general election, notes Post Today.

The grass roots also have a larger debt burden than any other social group. For this reason, all parties have promised the world to the grass roots ranging from debt wipe-outs, debt moratoriums and restructuring and the promise that they will gain easier access to new credit lines as few are targets for commercial banks over fears of increasing non-performing loans (NPLs).

According to the National Credit Bureau, the company has information on about 20 million people with about 62.5 million accounts _ 37.5 million active and 21.5 million inactive. The NPL (debts that are not paid after 91 days) involve 5.4 million accounts, or about 1.9 million people.

If those 1.9 million people get help, they can form a significant number of votes for political parties.

Kornpot Aswinvichit, a Chart Pattana Puea Pandin party list candidate and former president of the Government Savings Bank, remarked that the National Credit Bureau is the main obstacle for all NPL borrowers who are blacklisted and cannot start a new life as the Bank of Thailand does not allow commercial banks to extend loans to NPL borrowers.

Other parties have a similar idea. Some even promise to abolish the credit bureau, characterising it as the main villain for preventing the grass roots from getting access to new lines of credit.

Post Today notes that the Bank of Thailand's intent to have a single national credit bureau is to prevent fraud committed by some unscrupulous borrowers before the Tom Yam Kung financial meltdown in 1997. They used the same collateral to borrow money from several banks and purposely defaulted on loans. At the time, the commercial banks could not check the borrower's credit worthiness as they did not exchange customer data.

Once the National Credit Bureau was established, such fraud could be easily prevented. However, there is still a misunderstanding about the Bank of Thailand's directive. It is not true that the BOT prohibits the commercial banks from extending loans to NPL borrowers. They are only told to share information at the National Credit Bureau. It is up to the banks themselves to decide whether they dare to extend loans to a black-listed borrower. The fact that no commercial bank dares to extend new loans to NPL clients for fear of incurring losses is no fault of the Bank of Thailand.

Once the National Credit Bureau was established, commercial banks were quite relieved that the major risk of potential NPLs was reduced and that loan approval could be processed much faster than before. It is not a small matter that a commercial bank fails because of incurring high NPLs because it will shake confidence in the banking sector, the so-called domino effect. This is the main reason that the Bank of Thailand pushed for the establishment of the National Credit Bureau after the 1997 financial crisis in Thailand.

When the National Credit Bureau was established, the company was required to keep a borrowers' credit history for 10 years. This was later reduced to 5 years and to 3 years at present. So the black-listed borrowers have to wait at least 3 years before their bad credit history is no longer kept at the credit bureau.

It is also unlikely that the Bank of Thailand will allow the National Credit Bureau to wipe out all the bad credit history to start a clean slate as promised by several politicians as businesses need a central credit bureau to prevent potential NPLs and having a central credit bureau reflects the robustness of the financial system. It is also not possible for the Bank of Thailand to lower reserve requirement for credit defaults so as to make it easier for the commercial banks to extend credit more liberally. The Thai central bank has to follow the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) standard on this issue.

The only thing the BOT can do is to adjust the National Credit Bureau's standards such as shortening the time for keeping bad credit history, and/or allowing commercial banks to charge higher interest to higher risk clients than good credit borrowers.

Post Today advocates that if the Bank of Thailand is to make it easier to ease requirements for commercial banks to extend new loans to those black-listed, other measures must be carried out simultaneously, especially educating borrowers to change their bad behaviour and become more fiscally responsible. The government itself also should not stimulate or encourage the grass-roots to spend more than they can earn. This is the root cause of NPL and financial indiscipline.

It is true that when the National Credit Bureau was established, those NPLs were mostly owed to commercial banks. However, the NPL structure has changed over the years. Now the majority of NPLs are owed to non-bank financial institutions such as those who hold First Choice, AEON cards, which mean that they are really grass roots as the Bank of Thailand decrees that commercial banks can only issue credit cards to those who have a stable monthly income of not less than 15,000 baht, while non-bank institutions are not subject to this requirement. So it is often found that grassroots people with monthly incomes of less than 10,000 baht can easily acquire consumer cards.

If the Bank of Thailand is to help relieve debt, a measure must be found to make sure that the financial sector as a whole is not adversely affected so much as to shake the confidence of foreign investors. So if politicians in power really want to help NPLs listed in the National Credit Bureau, they cannot avoid using the government owned banks as these have their own laws governing them and they are under the direct supervision of the Finance Ministry, not the Bank of Thailand.

It is unlikely or impossible for politicians to abolish the National Credit Bureau as promised to the grass roots people during the election campaign. It is possible that the elected government can persuade the commercial banks which are owed money to relax payment terms or introduce other requirements. Ultimately, it usually falls on the government to directly carry out debt relief for the grass roots as it is unlikely the commercial banks would care to participate in extending new credit to those who have an NPL history as they do not believe that those blacklisted will reform themselves and become credit-worthy borrowers without becoming an NPL risk again.

**StrontiumDog** · 25-06-2011, 09:34 AM

Bangkok Post : Thaksin's ticket home _ amnesty

Thaksin's ticket home _ amnesty

Chalerm faces down Pheu Thai doubts about amnesty plan by billing it as 'national reconciliation' - Mischievous attack pamphlets portray Yingluck against petrol-soaked red shirt backdrop - Constitution Court chief judge leaves colleagues guessing on whether he will step down

Published: 25/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News

Chalerm Yubamrung did not earn himself a doctoral degree in law for nothing. He is now putting his legal expertise to good use by heading the Pheu Thai Party's team in drafting an amnesty law that promises to be highly controversial indeed.

Chalerm: Full steam ahead on amnesty

There were some hiccups in the early efforts to push the amnesty initiative through.

The amnesty idea began to be seriously explored by the party when Yingluck Shinawatra, the youngest sister of ousted premier Thaksin, Pheu Thai's mentor, was thrust into the political limelight and registered as its top election candidate in the list system.

But when it became apparent that the idea would draw more flak than praise, its confidence in getting the amnesty proposal out of the the blueprint stage paled, according to a party source.

Mr Chalerm, however, remained defiant. He was apparently convinced that the amnesty would be the ticket to bringing Thaksin home, ending three years of life in self-imposed exile.

Mr Chalerm believes the majority of Thai citizens are with the party all the way in securing Thaksin a passage back home.

With so many on board, the Pheu Thai's No.3 list candidate is certain that decreeing an amnesty to pardon everyone facing charges stemming from the political unrest since the Sept 19, 2006 coup _ which drove Thaksin from power _ will be a goal worth reaching for.

Mr Chalerm thinks there has been no more opportune time than now to ratchet up the call for amnesty.

After all, Pheu Thai's formidable rival, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), has turned on its former ally, the Democrat Party and the military.

Like many core leaders of the red shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), which is closely allied with Pheu Thai, a long list of PAD key figures have been charged with terrorism over previous major protest incidents deemed a significant threat to national security.

Mr Chalerm calculates that PAD leaders have everything to gain from Pheu Thai's plan for a mass pardon and letting bygones be bygones, assuming the party leads the next government.

Mr Chalerm has said the yellow shirt leaders have nothing to whine about or object to because they stand to benefit from the amnesty law as well.

However, Ms Yingluck may be more of a doubter than Mr Chalerm.

She has a lot to answer for, especially with regards to criticism that the only reason she is vying for the premiership is to seek amnesty for her brother. She has steadfastly sidestepped comment on the subject, turning her attention instead to bread and butter issues in her election campaign.

Seeing such a brick wall response from Ms Yingluck, Mr Chalerm has tried to add a more agreeable ring to the amnesty plan by renaming the proposed amnesty bill as a national reconciliation bill.

But the essence of it will likely be intact, meaning a reprieve for Thaksin from the two-year jail term he faces for abusing his authority during his premiership to aid his former wife Khunying Potjaman na Pombejra to buy a prime land plot in the Ratchadaphisek area at a deflated price.

Mr Chalerm is certain the bill will sail smoothly through if Pheu Thai heads the next government.

In keeping with the reconciliation spirit, Pheu Thai may also invite smaller parties, most preferably the Chartthaipattana Party, to join a coalition government, even if it manages to win more than 300 seats in the election.

Pheu Thai may want to woo Chartthaipattana by offering to spearhead a plan to abolish the five-year political ban against politicians who engage in electoral fraud. Chartthaipattana is staunchly against the ban.

Yingluck: Too sensitive to touch

Slinging the red election mud

An election is not complete without the usual war of words and trading of accusations and the July 3 poll is no exception.

The main target is usually the party thought to have an edge among the electorate, and Pheu Thai is predicted by many opinion polls to win the largest number of the 500 seats on offer.

As the contest intensifies, trickery in all shapes and forms has been employed to sway voters.

Last week, anonymous documents and VCDs were handed out to voters in many constituencies attacking Pheu Thai and its ally, the red shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship.

Printed in full-colour pamphlets was a picture of Pheu Thai's likely prime ministerial contender Yingluck Shinawatra wearing a red T-shirt.

Her image is set against a backdrop of a raging fire and a man carrying petrol-soaked tyres.

The 20-page booklet titled Our Thailand: Don't Let Anyone Burn Our Country Again, recounts the riots and arson attacks in Bangkok and elsewhere following the bloody clashes between the military and the red shirt protesters in April and May last year.

The book also publishes quotes by red shirt co-leaders including Arisman Pongruengrong, who told UDD supporters upcountry to bring petrol to Bangkok.

''Come. Bring with you an empty bottle and fill it with petrol. If one million of us descend on Bangkok, there will be one million litres of petrol,'' Mr Arisman said, predicting a ''sea of fire'' in the quote which appeared in the book.

Also, copies of what looks like a newspaper pull-out have found their way to the constituencies in some provinces with headlines alleging the most inconceivable acts of lese majeste, and that ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra is the reason for the red shirts' growing ''audacity''.

A third anti-red document is a pocket book called Thaksin's Fight To Death, An Unwinnable Fight.

The book is authored by Sonthiyan Chuenruthainaitham, a former journalist and media executive.

It deals with Thaksin's fights in self-imposed exile after he was overthrown from power in the September, 2006 coup and his struggle to return to the country.

The writer concludes that Thaksin will never win his fight to regain power as long as he fails to understand how Thai society functions, and that there is a very thin line that divides statesmanship from tyranny.

Pheu Thai has now decried the distribution of the VCDs carrying the label ''When Thaksin Thinks, It's Catastrophe for Thailand''.

The party has complained to the police and demanded an investigation to catch those responsible for the production and distribution of the VCDs.

A source said more documents have been printed, ready to be handed out. Some candidates of certain parties have asked for copies of the documents for distribution in their constituencies.

It is not known if their party leaders have told them that the police have arrested a number of people who handed out these documents.

Chat: A gentleman’s agreement

Chat keeps his peers guessing

Some people have been waiting since May 28 for Chat Cholaworn to honour his ''gentleman's promise'' to stand down as Constitution Court president.

It had been three years to the day since Mr Chat assumed the court presidency and promised he would relinquish the post on May 28 this year.

He declared he would only serve half the normal stint of six years.

A source said Mr Chat made the promise because the race for the court presidency was tight. He wanted to project himself as someone able to compromise.

However, May 28 has passed without any change.

Some court officials are anxious to see when Mr Chat will call it a day.

In the meantime, travel excursions have been organised for court judges and senior staff of the Constitution Court.

The judges and staff went on a study trip to South Korea and returned later to join a local tour to Sattahip in Chon Buri where they released turtles into the sea to honour His Majesty the King for his 84th birthday on Dec 5.

Participants also took part in an activity replanting mangrove trees.

A source at the court said four of the nine court judges joined the trips.

The source added that another overseas tour had been planned for the group but it was cut short after someone noted that court judges had not met to manage the court's affairs for some time.

The authority to call meetings rests with Mr Chat. As displeasure grew over the court's alleged under-performance, the court rather abruptly called a meeting of the judges on June 16.

There were nine items on the agenda. Four items were brought to the meeting for the court's acknowledgement while the others were tabled for the judges' consideration.

When the meeting formally convened at 10am, four judges had turned up including Mr Chat. They waited half an hour only to be informed that four other justices had called in sick. One judge could not be reached on his phone.

In the end, the meeting was adjourned due to the lack of a quorum.

**StrontiumDog** · 25-06-2011, 09:35 AM

Bangkok Post : Pinthongta hopes dad can attend wedding

Pinthongta hopes dad can attend wedding

Published: 25/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News

A daughter of fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra says she hopes her father can attend her wedding in Thailand late this year.

Pinthongta Shinawatra said yesterday that just like any daughter, she would like her father to be present at her wedding.

She also said she did not want the issue to be exploited politically.

Ms Pinthongta yesterday visited Huai Khwang district of Bangkok with her brother Panthongtae and sister Paethongtan to campaign for Pheu Thai candidate Anuttama Amornwiwat.

Residents gave flowers to them as well as to the Pheu Thai candidate.

Mr Panthongtae said that if the wedding could not be organised in Thailand, then it might be held abroad.

Thaksin, who is on the run from a two-year jail term in association with the Ratchadapisek land case, wrote on his Twitter account yesterday that he was calling for national reconciliation and has forgiven his offenders, critics and those who had hurt him.

He also apologised to any people whom he might have upset. He wrote that Thailand should tolerate different opinions in a constructive manner.

He promised he would not take revenge and urged people to leave the past behind for the sake of national progress.

In 2008, the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions sentenced him to two years in jail for helping his ex-wife buy state land in the Ratchadapisek area in 2003 while he was prime minister.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said Thaksin's acceptance of the court's verdict would be an important step towards reconciliation.

Mr Abhisit also pointed out that Thaksin's attempts to push for his amnesty and return of 46 billion baht seized as illegal earnings were affecting Thais' feelings.

Mr Abhisit suggested Thaksin forget about the money so people could leave the past behind them.

In response to Mr Abhisit's remark, Pheu Thai said that the party had never advocated a policy of issuing an amnesty for Thaksin, nor would it seek to return his seized money.

**StrontiumDog** · 25-06-2011, 09:36 AM

Other Bangkok Post updates...

Children of revolution lose hope
25/06/2011 : Descendants of those who staged the revolution that replaced absolute monarchy with a constitutional one do not believe the election will usher in fully-fledged democracy or the much-touted national reconciliation.

Bhumjaithai relying on local knowledge
25/06/2011 : The Pheu Thai Party stands a big chance of gaining the most seats in Si Sa Ket province but it will have to campaign hard in two constituencies where rival Bhumjaithai has far more solid supporter bases.

It's no holds barred on the campaign trail
25/06/2011 : Candidates are resorting to some unusual stunts to impress voters in the election.

Democrats offer amnesty plan
25/06/2011 : The Democrat Party has jumped on the reconciliation bandwagon and offered to grant amnesty to those serving political bans.

**SteveCM** · 25-06-2011, 10:59 AM

Bangkok Post : Thailand needs a post-election roadmap

Published: 25/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News

Just a little over a week before Thais go to the polls on July 3, the sense of a runaway Pheu Thai victory pervades the political landscape. One poll after another by disparate sources over recent weeks has all pointed to a Pheu Thai triumph.

Supporters of Pheu Thai Party throng yesterday’s election campaign in Phu Khieo, Chaiyaphum province.

A Pheu Thai-led government elicits memories of the last election in December 2007 when its predecessor, the People Power Party, won and governed but could not rule and administer in 2008, due to protests by the coalition arrayed against fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

To avoid a post-election dead-end, an agreement and understanding among the key protagonists is needed. Both sides of the Thai divide are now locked in what can be framed as "mutual assured damage" whose manifestations have sapped Thailand's overall vitality and incurred substantial opportunity costs.

Since the military coup in September 2006, the anti-Thaksin coalition has failed to turn back the clock far enough to pre-Thaksin times. They came up with a new constitution, dissolved two Thaksin proxy parties, banned scores of Thaksin-aligned politicians, effected an opposing coalition government led by the Democrat Party, and crushed anti-government demonstrators during the Democrats' rule. Despite these manipulative, coercive and suppressive manoeuvres, the forces supportive of the 2006 coup have not, and still cannot, win elections. But they can keep winners from ruling.

On the other hand, Thaksin's parties have won elections at will in the 21st century, and always by a comfortable margin. As a third-rate team with much less political talent remaining after two party dissolutions, Pheu Thai should not be polling well ahead of the Democrats. Somehow the Democrats just have not got the job done if they cannot win this election when the rules, referees and stadium guards have all been stacked in their favour.

But Thaksin's parties did not have the wherewithal to rule in the face of street protests by their opponents, who were acquiesced and supported by the army, judiciary, Democrats and other powers-that-be in Thai society. The army did not, and is unlikely to, suppress anti-Thaksin demonstrators (e.g. the yellow, multicolour, pink, and blue shirts) whereas the pro-Thaksin red shirts were met in 2009-10 with deadly force. The so-called "judicialisation" whereby judicial decisions tried to determine political direction, was mainly set against Thaksin's parties but did not touch the Democrats.

If Pheu Thai were to form the post-election government, more judicialisation may be in store. Already moves are afoot, led by Tul Srisomwong and Kaewsan Atibhodi, to oust Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's youngest sister, and Pheu Thai's electoral leader, who is doing her exiled brother's bidding, on perjury allegations. After the Securities and Exchange Commission cleared Ms Yingluck of fraud charges from her business practices, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij instructed the securities watchdog to scrutinise her finances again. Such interferences are no longer subtle.

Of course, the ultimate reset button against a Pheu Thai-led government would be another putsch. The army chief's muscular exhortation last week for voters to choose "good" people and not those who are inclined against the monarchy, does not allay coup fears, although the army's "good" coup in 2006 fared poorly by all accounts.

A stalemate has thus set in.

In Thailand's electoral democracy, election winners cannot rule, but those who rule cannot win elections.

To navigate a way forward, both sides and all other political actors on stage and behind the curtains must agree first and foremost that election results must not be subverted, that the next prime minister will not succumb to a disqualification akin to the late Samak Sundaravej's _ for hosting a cooking TV show.

If the voice of the majority is dismissed and disenfranchised, as in the wake of the December 2007 polls, more turmoil and volatility can be expected.

If Pheu Thai voters are treated the same way as those who opted for the PPP in the last election, their rage and rampage may surpass what was seen in 2009-10. Of course, the army can put them down again but casualties would be much higher, which could test the viability of the army's high command itself.

A flexible roadmap acceptable to the principal protagonists is imperative. In the event they win a convincing mandate from voters, Thaksin and Pheu Thai need to make explicit and demonstrable assurances to ensure no retribution and revenge. A grace period of three to six months after the polls, when continuity will be emphasised over change, can create a conducive environment for transition and negotiations.

During this grace period, there should be guarantees from the winners that the army chief will not be transferred, the death toll from last year will be investigated slowly through due process of law, Thaksin will stay away indefinitely (and take his pledge to return in December off the negotiating table), senior bureaucrats will not be moved, key policy fronts will not shift drastically, able hands will join cabinet, the controversial amnesty plan will be shelved for a certain period, and so forth.

For his abuses in the past and his policy legacies in the present and future, Thaksin may need to make the ultimate sacrifice of never returning to Thailand.

It would be an ironic price to pay for his electoral successes.

This grace period would allow all sides to internalise the election results and their implications for Thailand.

The anti-Thaksin coalition would also have to agree not to take to the streets as in 2008, to keep judicialisation at bay, and to negotiate the terms of a general amnesty that would clear the slate for the persecuted many who are languishing in jail and those under other charges who can then re-enter the fray.

The details of any roadmap would have to rely on an actionable timetable and some level of trust, possibly with the assistance of detached third-party interlocutors, such as the Friends of Thailand group and foreign embassies with the requisite peace-making reputation.

All details are manageable once the agreement and mutual understanding that Thailand has suffered enough is in place.

Alternative scenarios are likely to lead to a worsening spiral. Most Thais probably would prefer to see a workable deal rather than a deja vu.

The writer [ Thitinan Pongsudhirak] is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, ChulalongkornUniversity.

**SteveCM** · 25-06-2011, 11:02 AM

From the blog world.....

Bhum Jai Thai predicts that Puea Thai will win 240 seats | Asian Correspondent

By Bangkok Pundit
Jun 25, 2011

Bhum Jai Thai’s Newin previously predicted that Puea Thai would win 210 seats, the Democrats 160 seats, and Bhum Jai Thai would win 70 seats. Now. Bhum Jai Thai’s Somsak T is quoted by INN and Daily News (also see tweet by TNN reporter) as stating that Puea Thai will win 240 seats, the Democrats 170, and Bhum Jai Thai 70. He then states that Chart Thai Pattana will win 30 seats, Chart Pattana Puea Paendin 20 seats, and the rest 10 seats. This means that Democrats and Bhum Jai Thai with 240 seats is equal to Puea Thai with 240 seats.

BP: There are only 500 seats yet Somsak’s numbers exceed 500. Interesting that he has increased the number of seats that Puea Thai will win from 210 to 240 given BP’s prediction yesterday:

BP doesn’t see that Thursday’s rally will help the Democrats and while on June 9, BP thought the Democrats would win 182 seats and Puea Thai 228 would now adjust this to the Democrats winning 170-175, but adjust Puea Thai upwards to 235-240. The Democrats need a miracle now and if things continue as they are with Puea Thai picking up steam, Puea Thai could come close to winning an absolute majority.

Actually, BP finds it interesting that Somsak has adjusted the Democrat results upwards so that the Bhum Jai Thai+Democrat numbers is equal to those of Puea Thai. BP thinks this combination is quite important as BP blogged earlier this month:

1. If Puea Thai numbers are = to or higher than Dems + BJT numbers then it will be difficult for the Dems to form a government without PT defections post-election (it may not be easy to defect although need to wait until can actually get to see that the amended organic laws say).

For example, if the Dems win say 190 seats + BJT 40 seats and Puea Thai 215 then it will be an easy Dem+others excluding Puea Thai to form a government, but say that Puea Thai wins 225 whereas the Dems win 180+35 for BJT then it becomes more difficult. First, in terms of a “moral” sense that the margin is so wide and that there will be questions of legitimacy, but also in terms of a practical sense that to have any type of a stable government, in the knowledge that Ministers must abstain on certain votes and that the majority for such votes will be so narrow that the government would be on a knife-edge every vote and a handful of defectors/those who abstain would cause the collapse of the government. In that scenario, you would need PT defections and/or a number of red cards issued to PT candidates and thus new by-elections with non-PT candidates winning to have a stable government. If that happens, you could easily see the reds + PT coming out on the streets as it will be stated that it has been “fixed”.

BP: The problem that BP sees for Bhum Jai Thai is that they will not win 70 seats. Halve that and it is more realistic. Hence, BP sees the Democrats winning 170-175 seats, Bhum Jai Thai 30-35 so the combination will be about 210 compared with 235-240 for Puea Thai. This can only mean a Puea Thai government. This is not even taking into account a new poll of 16,000 of all 126 constituencies in the Northeast within Puea Thai winning 107 seats. The polls can be seen as either reflecting reality or that people will take them as reflecting reality which doesn’t help the Democrats at all as it may discourage some Democrat voters from voting or result in the bandwagon effect with the undecideds going for Puea Thai in greater numbers….

*Having said that Somsak is part of a faction of Bhum Jai Thai that is not within the Friends of Newin faction and there have been rumors that this faction would try to join up with Puea Thai post-election if Puea Thai formed a government although there were also rumors that the faction would leave Bhum Jai Thai so they are so rumors.

**Mid** · 25-06-2011, 11:06 AM

Originally Posted by Thitinan Pongsudhirak

During this grace period, there should be guarantees from the winners that the army chief will not be transferred, the death toll from last year will be investigated slowly through due process of law, Thaksin will stay away indefinitely (and take his pledge to return in December off the negotiating table), senior bureaucrats will not be moved, key policy fronts will not shift drastically, able hands will join cabinet, the controversial amnesty plan will be shelved for a certain period, and so forth.

To the victors go the spoils

**lom** · 25-06-2011, 11:10 AM

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Yet Bhumjaithai candidates persist in their strategy of convincing Isan voters that they are Thaksin loyalists as the party candidates used to belong to the People Power Party formed by Thaksin himself.

To counter this strategy, red shirt leaders Natthawut Saikua and Prompong Nopparit advised Pheu Thai candidates in the North and Northeast to tell the electorate that "people must choose candidates that are direct descendants from the main dissolved parties, not other candidates that left the parties and formed a splinter party. If the people don't elect our own kind, Thaksin cannot come back home."

Has these two PT leaders forgot what this election is not about?

**Calgary** · 25-06-2011, 11:14 AM

^^^^
"........ the forces supportive of the 2006 coup have not, and still cannot, win elections. But they can keep winners from ruling"

And that is why I have been harping away on exercising an overwhelming electoral mandate, the sooner the better.

**Butterfly** · 25-06-2011, 11:35 AM

Originally Posted by lom

Has these two PT leaders forgot what this election is not about?

where is DrB to remind us that PT and UDD are not about Thaksin ?

he is probably back hiding into the jungle reading 18th Century Siam literature

**Calgary** · 25-06-2011, 11:47 AM

"During this grace period (6 months after winning an overwhelming electoral victory), there should be guarantees from the winners that the army chief will not be transferred, the death toll from last year will be investigated slowly through due process of law, Thaksin will stay away indefinitely (and take his pledge to return in December off the negotiating table), senior bureaucrats will not be moved, key policy fronts will not shift drastically, able hands will join cabinet, the controversial amnesty plan will be shelved for a certain period, and so forth......Quote from Amart BKK Post above, Post #3283

Well, there ya go.

Win an election, but don't do anything.

Idiots!

**SteveCM** · 25-06-2011, 02:02 PM

Don't betray the trust of those who believe you

EDITORIAL

By The Nation
Published on June 25, 2011

If ours is to be a genuine democracy, a victorious Pheu Thai Party should learn to live without Thaksin, as they have already publicly stated

One of the sayings most associated with Thailand's political trouble is that the nation has never seemed able to move beyond Thaksin Shinawatra. That's beyond doubt. The issue is why it has to be this way. Is Thailand really obsessed with him? Or is it his "I'm not going anywhere" determination that makes it impossible to shake him off? The Democrat Party stirred up this controversy again during its rally at the Ratchaprasong intersection on Thursday, prompting the rival Pheu Thai Party to cry foul. But if Pheu Thai has had the Democrats against the ropes on other issues, the opposition camp always sounds defensive on this one.

The Pheu Thai Party's big lead in the election campaign owes a lot to Thaksin's lingering popularity. However, there are other factors as well - last year's political turbulence that further galvanised the grass roots, the Democrats' declining ratings, "Yingluck fever" et cetera. The most intriguing question has to do with the "amnesty" plan. To be precise, if Pheu Thai wins, is it because voters want to absolve Thaksin and bring him home?

If the answer is "Yes", then it will warrant debate on whether a popular "mandate" can override court verdicts. But it will be more disturbing if the answer is "No". Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva might be speaking in his capacity as Pheu Thai's chief rival, but when he warned the opposition against abusing election votes and turning them into an amnesty green light, he was making a solid point that warrants national soul-searching.

First things first, an election should not be just for one person's legal trouble. Even a specific referendum on whether a person should be absolved of a crime begs the question whether this is good for the checks and balances of democracy. It's all right if Pheu Thai is to win on Thaksin's merits. It's not healthy for democracy if an election victory, even if delivered through Thaksin's good deeds, is used to whitewash him of his bad ones.

Thaksin has made it impossible to avoid this debate, to move "beyond him". At the word "Go" in the election campaign, senior Pheu Thai members threw in "blanket amnesty" as one of the party's main platforms. Yingluck Shinawatra distanced herself from it and later the whole party was reluctant to discuss it that much. They all know how sensitive this issue is, but they will not renounce it unequivocally. Why?

On Friday, Pheu Thai denied in a statement that it was planning to give Thaksin amnesty and return his money. The way the statement was written arguably leaves the question of whether it would still give him amnesty without returning his billions. Pheu Thai's ambiguity may or may not have something to do with Thaksin's own insistence about coming home. Whatever the case, this election proves again that Thailand can't move "beyond Thaksin". Again, that's old news. Whether he's dragging the country back, or it can't move beyond him, should be the point of debate.

If it wins the election, Pheu Thai should be allowed to rule without the dangerous shackles of having to amend the laws or Constitution so that he can return. All that the pro-Thaksin mission would do is smear Pheu Thai's image and destabilise its government (assuming it wins). The Samak Sundaravej government met its demise precisely because it thought it had an obligation to bring the man back.

If a Pheu Thai government that managed to "move beyond" Thaksin was still doomed because all others conspired against it, then Thailand's democracy would have a real problem. With the way things have gone, we have been unable to tell. For us to find out whether we really have a bad democracy - with groups left, right and centre always lurking to undermine the party "most loved" by the people - Thaksin must tell Pheu Thai to forget about him. And he must mean it.

A Pheu Thai victory will be considered by many a romantic political story. Thaksin certainly has played a leading part in the unfolding tale. But romance can only go so far and even its leading star must be brave enough to face reality. There has been too much tragedy after all.

**DroversDog** · 25-06-2011, 02:37 PM

Originally Posted by Buksida

IMO opinion many expats like the Dems due to memories of Chuan, who would have to be the cleanest Thai PM ever. Thais didn't have much respect for this and his humble nature, instead they prefer arrogant, aggressive leaders like Samak and Thaksin.

The Dems these days are a joke, a high school marketing student could have come up with a better campaign.

They were just as useless during the
Thaksin years. A credible opposition is vital for democracy, something those cheering for a PT landslide don't seem concerned about.

Chuan being clean is a joke right?

**DrB0b** · 25-06-2011, 02:42 PM

Originally Posted by DroversDog

Chuan being clean is a joke right?

Not a joke, just pure and absolute ignorance. A pure and absolute ignorance typical of so many on this forum. For all the frustrations I've suffered while dealing with Thais I have yet to meet a Thai who comes even close in the stupidity and ignorance stakes to many of the farangs living in this country.

**Mid** · 25-06-2011, 02:52 PM

Originally Posted by The Nation

If ours is to be a genuine democracy,

Originally Posted by The Nation

One of the sayings most associated with Thailand's political trouble is that the nation has never seemed able to move beyond Thaksin Shinawatra. That's beyond doubt.

wot a load of , the political trouble extends way back before T was even a glint in his daddy's eye .

**DroversDog** · 25-06-2011, 02:57 PM

Originally Posted by Buksida

Originally Posted by Takeovers

Originally Posted by Buksida

A credible opposition is vital for democracy, something those cheering for a PT landslide don't seem concerned about.

Agree totally with the first part.

Don't agree with the second part, because anything less than the majority of all seats is too easily stolen from them, again. Driving the PT from governing the country with more than 250 votes will make the cheating obvious.

Also with one party able to rule alone they are the only ones to blame if they fail.

It's not having 250 seats that worries me, but when they get above 30O and Thaksins still running round buying MPs and saying seats that aren't his don't get funding.

It's happened before, he'll do it again, notice how his sister got in unamimously.

So why do you put Thaksin in as the one who buy's candidates? It is common place in Thailand politics and the masters of it are your pet little Democrat and Newin parties.

**SteveCM** · 25-06-2011, 03:12 PM

Originally Posted by Mid

Originally Posted by The Nation

If ours is to be a genuine democracy,

Originally Posted by The Nation

One of the sayings most associated with Thailand's political trouble is that the nation has never seemed able to move beyond Thaksin Shinawatra. That's beyond doubt.

wot a load of , the political trouble extends way back before T was even a glint in his daddy's eye .

Didn't occur to me until I read it in isolation above.....

"One of the sayings most associated with Thailand's political trouble is that The Nation has never seemed able to move beyond Thaksin Shinawatra. That's beyond doubt."

**SteveCM** · 25-06-2011, 03:17 PM

Bangkok Post : Ensuring a peaceful poll

EDITORIAL

Published: 25/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News

Fears of a renewed outbreak of unrest in the wake of the July 3 elections persist despite assurances that the army is putting troops on standby to deter any trouble. Such concerns are understandable, given the volatility of the campaign. But any bad behaviour by the competing parties or their supporters during the nationwide voting or in the political manoeuvring afterward will rebound on those causing it. For the sake of the country, the democratic process must be unhindered and allowed to run its course. Any attempt to subvert it could cause immeasurable damage.

If needed, there are proper avenues for legitimate complaints. The Election Commission exists to deal with poll violations, the courts to rule on constitutional and other legalities and the police to keep order. There will be no need for any group to stage rowdy street demonstrations as a pressure tactic _ a post-election ploy that occurs in some countries while coalitions are being formed but one that has no place here.

While not everyone will be satisfied with the outcome, the July 3 election must provide the way out from the turmoil, hate, stress and and misery of the past three years. The wounds need a chance to heal. This means that the country must stop living in the past and in a world where sponsored protest, greed and rabble-rousing activities consume otherwise productive lives. If legitimate grievances are being ignored by the government then orderly and peaceful demonstrations are justified. But not chaos and bloodshed. That is leaving democracy behind and crossing into the realm of anarchy. Those events shamed our nation and must not happen again.

But that is the future. First, though, comes a final week of campaigning which will provide rival parties with the opportunity to talk about policies rather than giveaways, although word of who exactly will be paying for all these populist handouts and their projected impact on the economy would be welcome. Equally satisfying would be a thorough explanation of the steps party leaders intend to take to stop, or at least slow, the spiralling cost of living, bearing in mind that handouts tend to be inflationary. This has become a source of worry to many people who have listened to vague promises without hearing anything specific.

Then there are the big players in the tourism industry who are still trying to get a sense of the direction a new government's policy might take. A good start would be to stop lumping the tourism ministry in with sport. Their biggest fear is another destabilising outbreak of national unrest that could wreak havoc on the hospitality sector. This uncertainty and fear of political turmoil is a concern shared by local and foreign investors and business leaders alike, as it frustrates forward planning. School leavers and graduates are also hoping that stability will follow this election. They are tired of empty pockets and fruitless job searches and many will be voting for the first time.

Just as in the poll of December 2007, when the now defunct People Power Party triumphed, the party winning this election with the most seats in the absence of an outright majority, must get the first chance at putting together a government. But this is easier said than done. The Pheu Thai Party, if it gains the most seats and needs to form a coalition, will almost certainly encounter challenges from potential partners unless it rethinks its controversial amnesty proposal. Surely no one wants a repeat of 2008, when government became obsessed with a single issue to the exclusion of all else.

Let us hope for a high turnout on July 3 and a result that expresses the true will of the people.

**Mid** · 25-06-2011, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by SteveCM

Let us hope for a high turnout on July 3 and a result that expresses the true will of the people.

Hear Hear .

**SteveCM** · 25-06-2011, 03:30 PM

^^

Originally Posted by Bkk Post

Fears of a renewed outbreak of unrest in the wake of the July 3 elections persist despite assurances that the army is putting troops on standby to deter any trouble.

Not unusual these days for Bkk Post to avoid identifying any contradiction between their editorial's opening line and

Originally Posted by Bkk Post

If needed, there are proper avenues for legitimate complaints. The Election Commission exists to deal with poll violations, the courts to rule on constitutional and other legalities and the police to keep order.

Still. at least they didn't get quite so ridiculous as to suggest that the army putting troops on standby is a "reassurance".....

Originally Posted by Bkk Post

Let us hope for a high turnout on July 3 and a result that expresses the true will of the people.

Too much to hope that they would add "- and which will be allowed to stand".

**SteveCM** · 25-06-2011, 05:09 PM

From the blog world.....

Suthichai Yoon's personal journal: Why hasn't anybody called Banharn?

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Banharn Silpa-archa, the de facto owner of Chat Thai Pattana Party, is waiting anxiously for phone calls from Suthep Thuagsuban, the Democrat Party's secretary general -- and probably from Thaksin Shinawatra from Dubai.

But so far, the two have kept strangely quiet.

Banharn's party could prove to be crucial in the formation of the next government after next Sunday' election.

Even if Pheu Thai wins about 250 seats, slightly over the simple majority, it will still have to embrace one of the middle-sized parties, to form the coalition.

As Banharn said on television last evening: "The next government needs about 300 seats in the House to be stable. Cabinet members can't vote in the House. So, 250 seats won't be enough," he said.

Of course, Banharn is hoping his party could join either Pheu Thai or the Democrat party to form the next government. There is little doubt that he adheres strictly to the dictum that you don't have permanent friends or enemies in politics.

Asked whether Thaksin has called him, Banharn said: "No, in fact we haven't talked for two years or so now..."

What about Suthep? "No, he hasn't called either. If he doesn't, I will call him in the next few days."

Banharn said his party would get "at least 30 seats" in the election.

With Pheu Thai having declared that it won't consider Newin Chidchob's Bhumjaithai Party as a coalition partner no matter what, Banharn emerges as the most important "third party" to enable either Pheu Thai or the Democrats to win the battle to set up the next government.

But he is feeling lonely. I have no doubt that after he sent out that message in his television show last evening, Banharn's phone would be buzzing over the weekend.

**Butterfly** · 25-06-2011, 05:47 PM

Originally Posted by DrB0b

have yet to meet a Thai who comes even close in the stupidity and ignorance stakes to many of the farangs living in this country.

it's not nice to speak about yourself in those terms,

Thread: Thai elections 2011-Thai PM sets stage for tough election

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