Thailand : PM to Decide on House Dissolution in 4 Months

**Takeovers** · 07-05-2011, 11:56 AM

Originally Posted by Buksida

When the death squads are killing thousands, will the red shirt/PTT/Thaksin supporters sit back quoting ABAC polls and saying it's OK cause he has a mandate.

When the target are drug dealers like last time probably not only the Red Shirts would sit back comfortably but a majority of supporters of other parties too.

Not politically correct, I know.

**SteveCM** · 07-05-2011, 12:12 PM

^
Excellent point - and emphasise "target". Many non-dealers/non-drug-related people were caught up in it (and the usually-quoted 2,500-3,000 figures include "other" murders)*, but the general Thai reaction seems to be best characterised as "Unfortunate - but necessary and worthwhile".

When you read the order that Thaksin issued, it's inconceivable that he - as a former police colonel - did not foresee the likely consequences of rewarding success (high body count) and punishing failure (low body count). That said, it has been open to the current government to investigate the WOD properly. They haven't - and most of us have strong ideas why they haven't. There are no votes in it and it would reach too many highly inconvenient places.

* Before someone jumps in with the usual snipe, this is not to diminish the significance of the numbers. For the record, IMO any officially-sanctioned extra-judicial killing is one too many.

**Buksida** · 07-05-2011, 03:28 PM

....yes and the discussion turns circular once again. The problem may not be the leaders, but the Thais acceptance of HR abuses.

Many Thais I've spoken to claim the WOD as Thaksin's greatest success, every govt since has been ready to launch their own and now Thaksin says he'll have another.

What sort of imbecile would trust the Thai police to be judge, jury and executioner.

**sabang** · 07-05-2011, 04:02 PM

Originally Posted by Takeovers

When the death squads are killing thousands

The Bird flu was just a vile chemical experiment of his.
Oh, and he's a wife beater, and a child molester.
He caused all those Bangkok traffic jams, too.
Truly Satans spawn. He has AIDs too, you know.
Yawwn.

**Buksida** · 07-05-2011, 04:24 PM

^ not sure of your point, so I'll clarify mine. Thaksin was the architect of the WOD and there is ample evidence of his support for extrajudicial killings.

He has said he will have another, I would trust him on this more than the promised car and house.

Talk of the WOD may make you sleepy, but it was anything but boring.

**tomta** · 07-05-2011, 05:32 PM

Originally Posted by Buksida

What sort of imbecile would trust the Thai police to be judge, jury and executioner.

I remember at the time of the WOD reading the Bangkok Post. There were two opinion polls sitting next to each other. In one about 80 percent of people had fears that they or their relatives could be framed by the police. In other words, you can't trust the police. In the other about 80 percent thought the war on drugs murders were a good thing, apparently not caring that some of the victims may have been framed.

A major case of cognitive dissonance.

**sabang** · 07-05-2011, 08:07 PM

Domestically, it was the most popular thing he did. Sadly. But given he was the most popular PM ever, that is saying something.
A purge on drugs was originally suggested by the high Military actually- whether Thaksin can be described as the sole architect is highly debatable, but he was certainly complicit.
It received support from high quarters too- the very highest.

The best (and highly critical) accounts of the WoD I found in the Asia Sentinel webzine- unfortunately that diverts to an MICT website now, strangely. But where theres a will.

What is really beneath contempt though is that the loudest cheerleaders at the time are now loudly using it against him for political purposes- talk about hypocrycy. Fact is, about the only people who publicly spoke out against the WoD in Thailand at the time to any extent were some left leaning academics- at least one of whom is in exile now to avoid LM charges.

**Buksida** · 07-05-2011, 08:50 PM

I remember someone high up taking to task about the murders. I've heard many say it was backed from high up, while have never seen evidence quoted - it may have gotten lost.

Was Giles really critical of the murders? Seems to be comfortable with Thaksin now.

**sabang** · 07-05-2011, 09:25 PM

^ Highly critical, indeed. Actually Giles was quite critical of Thaksin overall- do not confuse opposition to the Military & Judicial coups, PAD, etc, with being 'pro-Thaksin'. Not even all of the red shirts are pro-Thaksin as such, although it is likely that most are.

Also, an excerpt from His Majesty's 2003 Birthday Eve speech-

"This victory of narcotics suppression… it’s good to suppress. What they criticize, saying, hey, as many as 2500 people died or whatever. That’s a trifle. 2500 people, if PM didn’t do it, he didn’t do it. Jot it down every year that there are more then 2500 people who die, including those who got addicted and go kill people or do things, burn things et cetera, including officers who have to go suppress as they’re supposed to do who die in large numbers, too. But [they] don’t talk about them, don’t count them. Now they count, point, point and count the traders, the makers, who have died in large numbers, too. The past, they don’t talk about. "

**StrontiumDog** · 07-05-2011, 10:18 PM

Ah yes, lets remember that effective war on drugs....

Policies of the Shinawatra administration - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The policy was effective in substantially increasing the price of methamphetamine and thus reducing the intake of habitual and recreational users, with retail drug prices skyrocketing 2-3 times as a result. The longer-term effectiveness of the crackdown, however, is less clear.

Originally Posted by sabang

Domestically, it was the most popular thing he did. Sadly. But given he was the most popular PM ever, that is saying something.

Conducted two years after the campaign, an ABAC opinion poll revealed that 62.2 percent of respondents believed that drug abuse had increased from 2004 to 2005. The same survey also showed that people had lost confidence in the Thaksin's anti-drug policies, with 67.8 percent answering that they no longer trust the government to solve the drug problem.[22]

The Nation (an English-language newspaper in Thailand) reported on November 27, 2007:

"Of 2,500 deaths in the government's war on drugs in 2003, a fact-finding panel has found that more than half was not involved in drug at all. At a brainstorming session, a representative from the Office of Narcotics Control Board (ONCB) Tuesday disclosed that as many as 1,400 people were killed and labelled as drug suspects despite the fact that they had no link to drugs."

The article also reported:

"Senior public prosecutor Kunlapon Ponlawan said it was not difficult to investigate extra-judicial killings carried out by police officers as the trigger-pullers usually confessed."[23][24]
The January 24, 2008 edition of The Economist reported:

Yet a panel set up last year by the outgoing junta recently concluded the opposite: over half of those killed in 2003 had no links to the drugs trade. The panel blamed the violence on a government “shoot-to-kill” policy based on flawed blacklists. But far from leading to the prosecutions of those involved, its findings have been buried. The outgoing interim prime minister, Surayud Chulanont, took office vowing to right Mr Thaksin's wrongs. Yet this week he said there was insufficient evidence to take legal action over the killings. It is easy to see why the tide has turned. Sunai Phasuk, a researcher for Human Rights Watch, a lobbying group, says that the panel's original report named the politicians who egged on the gunmen. But after the PPP won last month's elections, those names were omitted.[25]

The New York Times reported on April 8, 2003:

Since the death of 9-year-old Chakraphan, there have been frequent reports in the Thai press of summary executions and their innocent victims. There was the 16-month-old girl who was shot dead along with her mother, Raiwan Khwanthongyen. There was the pregnant woman, Daranee Tasanawadee, who was killed in front of her two young sons. There was the 8-year-old boy, Jirasak Unthong, who was the only witness to the killing of his parents as they headed home from a temple fair. There was Suwit Baison, 23, a cameraman for a local television station, who fell to his knees in tears in front of Mr. Thaksin and begged for an investigation into the killing of his parents. His stepfather had once been arrested for smoking marijuana, Mr. Suwit said. When the police offered to drop the charge if he would admit to using methamphetamines, he opted instead to pay the $100 fine for marijuana use. Both parents were shot dead as they returned home from the police station on a motorbike. Mr. Suwit said 10 other people in his neighborhood had also been killed after surrendering to the police.[12]

Originally Posted by sabang

A purge on drugs was originally suggested by the high Military actually- whether Thaksin can be described as the sole architect is highly debatable, but he was certainly complicit.

Sabang, he seemed to be leading the charge, I've no idea why you would suggest a diminished role. Complicit suggests others were involved. While in the earlier stages that may have been true, Thaksin was the one who pushed for it and some of his rhetoric at the time suggests he should be held accountable. The buck always stops with Prime minister....right?

Thailand: Anti-Drug Campaign Reaches New Low | Human Rights Watch

On Sunday, Thaksin announced a new round of the anti-drug campaign that began in February 2003. Promising “brutal measures” against drug traffickers, Thaksin said, “Drug dealers and traffickers are heartless and wicked. All of them must be sent to meet the guardian of hell, so that there will not be any drugs in the country.”

Newsbrief: Southeast Asians to End Drugs

"I want to see every square inch getting x-rayed and authorities making a clean sweep of drugs in every area within three months from now," he told a briefing of more than a thousand governors, police and military personnel on January 15, the Bangkok Post reported. Thaksin added that he would no longer tolerate drugs and vowed a vicious fight. "Drug traders are unkind to our children, so we will be unkind to them," he said.

Functionaries who fail to eradicate drugs could lose their jobs, Thaksin warned. "Don't make the interior minister act as police inspector. You are finished if you don't do your job."

**sabang** · 07-05-2011, 10:29 PM

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

I've no idea why you would suggest a diminished role

I'm not- neither am I defending it, in fact I'm as critical of it now as I was then. It is the hypocricy of the Thai I am lambasting here, specifically the amazing and suspicious Mea Culpa these people must have had to be enthusiastically cheering it back then, but the opposite now. That some senior Military figures suggested it is not a figment of my imagination though, I remember it quite well. It coincided with or followed a visit to the far north.

Tbh, most of the expats I encountered here were cheering it too- it was quite the Happy Hour topic du jour. Some expressed misgivings.

**Tom Sawyer** · 07-05-2011, 10:56 PM

And where - oh where - are the news reports about the REAL people who run Thailand? It's the amart. Yawn or not - this is the nut that needs to be cracked. everyone knows it.

Blame the politicians and blame the police if it makes you feel better (an extension - though cast out - of the amart) - but it's the amart families who run Thailand. Take aim at them and things start to change.. It would mean a purge of the senior levels of bureaucracy and that would lead into upper middle levels of the merchant class. You know it, I know it, Thai people know it.

Will it happen? Probably not. But it needs to.

**nostromo** · 08-05-2011, 01:43 AM

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

And where - oh where - are the news reports about the REAL people who run Thailand? It's the amart. Yawn or not - this is the nut that needs to be cracked. everyone knows it.

Blame the politicians and blame the police if it makes you feel better (an extension - though cast out - of the amart) - but it's the amart families who run Thailand. Take aim at them and things start to change.. It would mean a purge of the senior levels of bureaucracy and that would lead into upper middle levels of the merchant class. You know it, I know it, Thai people know it.

Will it happen? Probably not. But it needs to.

You know it, I know it, many people know it. Give it time.

**Buksida** · 08-05-2011, 03:18 AM

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

And where - oh where - are the news reports about the REAL people who run Thailand? It's the amart.

And where is the hard evidence to back your claims? Or should rely on rumors, hearsay and start drawing up blacklists?

**English Noodles** · 08-05-2011, 03:26 AM

Originally Posted by Buksida

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

And where - oh where - are the news reports about the REAL people who run Thailand? It's the amart.

And where is the hard evidence to back your claims? Or should rely on rumors, hearsay and start drawing up blacklists?

If you think otherwise then you must be a fool.

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 11:30 AM

TAN_Network TAN News Network

ABAC Poll finds Pheu Thai more popular than Democrat in all aspects except for honesty; NIDA Poll says popularity almost equal

29 minutes ago

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 11:31 AM

Bangkok Post : Poll: P.Thai better than the Democrat

Breakingnews >

Poll: P.Thai better than the Democrat

Published: 8/05/2011 at 11:03 AM
Online news: Local News

The opposition Pheu Thai Party has more strong points than the ruling Democrat Party, according to the latest Abac Poll.

Pheu Thai received higher votes on various strong points from the respondents when compared to those of the Democrat, Noppadol Kannikar, director of Abac poll at the Assumption University, said on Sunday.

The opinion poll on strong points of the two main parties, which surveyed 2,143 people in Bangkok and 16 other provinces in all regions between May 1 and 7, reported 59% of the respondents supported policy and vision of Pheu Thai, while 41% back those of the Democrat.

On the economic capability, 64.6% of them voted for Pheu Thai and 35.4% for the ruling camp.

Nearly 62% supported the foreign affairs policy of the opposition party while the Democrat gained 38.1%.

Some 58.6% of the respondent considered the Pheu Thai party was more acceptable by the international community, while 41.4% of them pointed to the Democrat.

Only on the transparency and honesty that the Democrat gained more percentage, 51.6%, while 48.4% of the respondents voted for Pheu Thai.

A total of 36.4% of them said they would vote for party list candidates of Pheu Thai, while 34.1% would back candidates of the Democrat.

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 12:17 PM

Half of voters are undecided

By The Nation on Sunday
Published on May 8, 2011

The opposition Pheu Thai Party enjoys a slim lead over the ruling Democrat Party although most voters remain undecided which party to vote for in the upcoming general election, a public opinion survey has found.

More than 23 per cent of the respondents favoured Pheu Thai, compared to 20.2 per cent who opted for the Democrats, almost 3 per cent who would vote for the Bhum Jai Thai Party, and less than 1 per cent for other parties, according to results of the poll by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida).

Almost 53 per cent of those surveyed said they remained undecided about their choice in the next election.

The survey was conducted on 1,203 people in all regions of the country on Monday and Tuesday.

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 12:20 PM

^
No word from The Notion on that rather alarming ABAC poll yet..... Maybe they need a meeting and a few stiff drinks to work out how to play it.

**Scaramanga** · 08-05-2011, 01:14 PM

is ABAC short for Army Backed?

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 01:32 PM

^^
The first glimmer of The Notion's likely reaction - from Twitter today:

tulsathit tulsathit

TR [at]news1005fm: Abac poll on if election was held now: Dems will win 34.1% of party list votes. PT 36.4 %

50 minutes ago

TR [at]news1005fm: But a clear majority of Abac poll respondents state that Dems r better than PT when it comes to honesty, transparency.

49 minutes ago

**nostromo** · 08-05-2011, 01:57 PM

Originally Posted by SteveCM

TR [at]news1005fm: Abac poll on if election was held now: Dems will win 34.1% of party list votes. PT 36.4 %

Very nicely worded for quick twitter readers, "Dems will win", oh just later it appears they had lower %.
I think Tulsathit is a professional, respect him over most others in the Nation group. He is good.

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 01:59 PM

Bangkok Post : Rak Santi looks to PM seats in BK

Published: 8/05/2011 at 12:49 PM
Online news:

The Rak Santi Party will field its MP candidates in all 33 constituencies of Bangkok, party chairman Purachai Piumsomboon said on Sunday.

“Most of them are new-face politicians with at least master degree. It is important to give a chance to new-face politicians, if the people want political change. Otherwise, they will find only the same old-face,” he said.

He admitted that Rak Santi will also contest in other provinces, but not all, in the coming general election.

Pol Capt Purachai insisted that his newly established political party is not a nominee for any one, nor a reserved home for Puea Thai Mps in the event that the opposition camp is dissolved as speculated.
.......

Note: I assume the headline should read "... MP seats..."

**Mid** · 08-05-2011, 02:03 PM

position vacant

proof reader

contact Bkk Post

urgently .

**nostromo** · 08-05-2011, 02:11 PM

Originally Posted by Mid

position vacant

proof reader

contact Bkk Post

urgently .

8k baht a month, i respectfully decline

Thread: Thailand : PM to Decide on House Dissolution in 4 Months

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