Thread: Thai real estate in the doldrums

Real estate, anywhere, is only a good investment in small bursts of time, and has to be timed right. Holding real estate over the long term is a losing proposition, investment-wise. Much better long-term investments around.

Investing in real-estate in Thailand is probably one of the most risky investments any foreigner can make, read stupid. Buying a condo to live in, well there are arguments to be made for that, though renting still makes much more sense from so many angles. But investing in a condo is stupidity.

IMHO, Thailand, and even places like China, has had its ride on the back of madness in the world economy over the past few decades. Apart from the fact that an almighty bubble that the Chinese are blissfully continuing to carry on blowing up regardless of the world economy is likely to burst soon, with pretty nasty consequences, the world economy has suffered enough trauma to ensure that the old philosophies won't survive, regardless of the investment communities efforts to restart the same madness.

In the end, economies are made by people doing business, not investors/speculators. And they've had enough, as have had consumers. Expect at least a partial return to lower-level consumption of higher quality goods, more prudence in spending and immersing yourself in debt etc. Bad for corporations and countries persuing an unsustainable growth-at-all-costs model, and good for smaller businesses following lower volume/higher quality models.

In short, what I'm trying to get at is that most Eastern economies are based and have had their day on the back of low quality/ high volume /low price models. I doubt whether they have the capability at this stage, or in the near future to adapt to a different model, the populations have not had the type of education to cope with that. So Thailands growth is basically over as well, at least for a decade or more, and property prices will plummet.

Now where's that dubie.

strangely, all the Thai property companies are still reporting record earnings on the SET

however, there has been a few announcement that they are scaling back development, oversupply of condos

bargains should start to appear by year end, maybe next year.

Land prices in khao Yai have gone through the roof over last 2 years.

No down trun here.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

bargains should start to appear by year end, maybe next year.

Don't hold your breath.

look at all the things that should have cause doom and gllom and people dumping property at fire sale prices....does not seem to happen. Sure you get a few, but not enough to call it across the board unbelievable bargains.

Rather than buy in Thailand I bought a second house in the Uk which I rent out - the rent covered my rent in Bangkok quite comfortably and I much prefer owning property in the UK (in my own name) over property in Thailand.

it's a fragmented market,

Bangkok seems to be different, oversupply now

the problem is the locals have nowhere to put their money in terms of investment, so they buy land and condos

Originally Posted by FailSafe

Holding real estate over the long term is a losing proposition, investment-wise. Much better long-term investments around.

How do you figure this ?

Originally Posted by Nawty

Originally Posted by FailSafe

Holding real estate over the long term is a losing proposition, investment-wise. Much better long-term investments around.

How do you figure this ?

That's not my quote- FlyFree said it- I have some real estate that I'm holding for the long term that's increased quite a bit in value over the years- I don't agree with what he said (on the whole- there are always exceptions).

a lot of farangs have made small fortune trading properties in Thailand,

it's a bit risky, but you get rewarded amply for it

almost bought a beach front land on Samui after the 1997 crisis, I was offered a couple of Rai for 500,000 THB/rai

the problem is the land laws on those islands, it's all mafia family type, so you have no idea what you are buying really, unless you have a team of very good lawyer with you to assist you in the sale. So the opportunities were there, but not the conduit.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

a lot of farangs have made small fortune trading properties in Thailand,

it's a bit risky, but you get rewarded amply for it

almost bought a beach front land on Samui after the 1997 crisis, I was offered a couple of Rai for 500,000 THB/rai

the problem is the land laws on those islands, it's all mafia family type, so you have no idea what you are buying really, unless you have a team of very good lawyer with you to assist you in the sale. So the opportunities were there, but not the conduit.

No argument- I was fortunate to have some decent connections through my wife.

Even crappy beach land on Samui is now ~15mil+ per rai- that's in the middle of nowhere with more rocks than beach- Chaweng beach land (which is hardly ever available for sale) was offered for 60mil per rai the last time I heard about it (granted, the guy was dreaming, but it would probably have gone for over 40mil- this was for the empty piece- now it's been developed- on the south end next to Lagoon Bay).

fools and their money, plenty of them in this world

some price of land in Thailand are higher than Hawaii !!! can you imagine that ?

Thailand has more per capita babes than hawaii....I can imagine that

Sure, there are properties out there in the Tb30m range but for the equivent of what the average Auzzie who is happy with a nice, suburban 4 bed, 2 bath cream brick venerial house with pool, I don't think you need to spend more than Tb4-6m (unless your after ocean views etc.) if you do your homework in Thailand in the popular areas .

We spent 6 months looking in and around Pattaya / Sattahip and the choices and prices just got better the more we looked.

I think the Russians and middle easterners are a past market /easy prey for these developers who, I believe, will not see any substantial interest in this market for the next 3-5 years. The're too busy trying to pay of the condo(s) in Dubai!

Originally Posted by FailSafe

Why is it stupid? I doubled my money in a few years investing in real estate on Samui-

It's stupid simply because it is illegal to own land, trade land and be in involved in real estate as a foreigner.

Originally Posted by Beadle

Originally Posted by FailSafe

Why is it stupid? I doubled my money in a few years investing in real estate on Samui-

It's stupid simply because it is illegal to own land, trade land and be in involved in real estate as a foreigner.

In theory, your point has some validity- in practice, it doesn't- I would hate to think of where I might be today if I had talked to you and listened to your advice before embarking on my business ventures here.

since there is no enforcement of the law, it's really like it doesn't matter and the law doesn't exist

it's that simple, but still carry risk

Originally Posted by Beadle

Originally Posted by FailSafe

In theory, your point has some validity- in practice, it doesn't- I would hate to think of where I might be today if I had talked to you and listened to your advice before embarking on my business ventures here.

No, that is the law. Thai law is very clear on foreign land ownership, real estate and land dealing. Very clear indeed.

You chose to break the law in order to turn a profit. You can sugar-coat it all you want but what you were and probably still are involved in remains illegal.

Quite simple really.

Very clear indeed, huh?

Whatever- I'm done with you- you can have the last word if you want- advice (and admonishment) from someone who never had the sack to get in the game in the first place is less than useless- keep pontificating from your barstool.

Originally Posted by FlyFree

Holding real estate over the long term is a losing proposition, investment-wise

Absolute tosh!

Originally Posted by FailSafe

Now Spin can post about what a foolish amateur I am

Anybody that talks about 30+30+30 land leases is a foolish amateur, whoever they are. Until you change your stance on the matter, that's the way folks in the know will regard you.

Originally Posted by FailSafe

Whatever- I'm done with you- you can have the last word if you want- advice (and admonishment) from someone who never had the sack to get in the game in the first place is less than useless- keep pontificating from your barstool.

What game? Illegally deal land and real estate like you?

Why do you think I'd even bother myself to get involved in such a nest of vipers like Samui real estate in order to make a paltry few million Baht?

Originally Posted by Spin

Anybody that talks about 30+30+30 land leases is a foolish amateur

Agreed. At least the posts were removed for providing false information.

Originally Posted by Bexar County Stud

OK, Khun Nocashflow, suit yourself.

ROTFLOL! Great comment!

Originally Posted by FailSafe

Originally Posted by Beadle

Originally Posted by FailSafe

In theory, your point has some validity- in practice, it doesn't- I would hate to think of where I might be today if I had talked to you and listened to your advice before embarking on my business ventures here.

No, that is the law. Thai law is very clear on foreign land ownership, real estate and land dealing. Very clear indeed.

You chose to break the law in order to turn a profit. You can sugar-coat it all you want but what you were and probably still are involved in remains illegal.

Quite simple really.

Very clear indeed, huh?

Whatever- I'm done with you- you can have the last word if you want- advice (and admonishment) from someone who never had the sack to get in the game in the first place is less than useless- keep pontificating from your barstool.

Dude, don't worry about him -- typical expat windbag, who excels at not achieving anything, and is envious and bitter to those who actually decide to succeed.

Good on you for having done just that, and done well for yourself -- doubly so because it gives Beadle another reason to have a bloody aneurism.