ANALYSIS-Thaksin's rallies signal trouble for Thai rulers | Reuters
page 1
BANGKOK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra is showing he can still whip up supporters and flex his political muscle while in exile, signalling trouble ahead for Thailand's fragile ruling coalition and chronic political crisis.
Plans for thousands of the fugitive billionaire's red-shirted supporters to rally on Sunday are a reminder of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's failure to overcome Thailand's deep political divisions -- and of the potential for further instability after violent anti-government riots in April.
By putting down April's protests, the armed forces were believed to have crushed the dreams of a political comback for the populist Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 coup and now lives in self-imposed exile to avoid jail on a corruption conviction. Public opinion swung behind Abhisit, a 45-year-old, British-born, Oxford-educated economist who came to power in December as Thailand's third prime minister in four months with support from the royalist, military and business elite. Fast-forward to August. Abhisit has yet to win over the majority rural poor, Thaksin's red-shirted political base who fume at being cut out of the democratic process, overlooked in Thailand's economic boom and marginalised by the Bangkok elite.
"Thaksin remains very popular. He is effectively chipping away at Abhisit's coalition rather successfully," said Stephen Vickers, Hong Kong-based chief executive officer of FTI International Risk Ltd, which advises investors in Thailand.
"The trouble for Abhisit is that he has not done any damage or significant damage to Thaksin's support level. And I think occasionally we're seeing some examples of panic -- not too much -- but some elements of panic in the government," he added.
Illustrating his point, the government invoked a seldom-used Internal Security Act on Tuesday to clear the way for Abhisit and the military to move quickly, without declaring a state of emergency, if Sunday's crowd becomes unruly.
Government security agencies are urging Abhsit to deploy 5,500 soldiers on Sunday and ban protesters from gathering in front of his office, as the red-shirt leaders had planned.
Political analysts say the government may fear a reprise of a three-week blockade of the premier's office in April that sparked Thailand's worst street violence in 17 years, forcing Abhisit to call a state of emergency and stoking concerns over the stability of Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy.