U.S. leaves its last Afghan base, effectively ending operations

**pickel** · 09-08-2021, 10:58 PM

Originally Posted by OhOh

Why stop ameristan do what it does best, loose wars, expensively.

Are tight wars cheaper?

**HermantheGerman** · 10-08-2021, 02:59 AM

Originally Posted by OhOh

Russia left a functioning government, which survived for two years, after leaving in an agreed timetable and fashion.

I guess Schoigu is trying to organize another functioning government

Military maneuvers on the Afghan border: preparing for an emergency

The advance of the Taliban into Afghanistan has put Central Asian states on alert. They fear border skirmishes and the infiltration of radical forces. They practice emergencies together with Russia.
Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu doesn’t get upset that easily. But he is also worried about the situation in Afghanistan: the advance of the Taliban, the refugee movements, the resurgence of drug trafficking, the return of Islamist terror groups. "We see how actively troops of the so-called Islamic State from different regions, including Syria and Libya, move there. We also observe how well these troop movements are organized," he describes the situation.

Militarmanover an afghanischer Grenze: Vorbereiten auf den Ernstfall | tagesschau.de

**sabang** · 10-08-2021, 03:37 AM

As the US withdraws, China pins regional stability hopes on the Afghan Taliban

Shanghai-based Middle East expert Hongda Fan told the ABC that "China has no intention or plan to replace the position once held by the United States in Afghanistan".

"China knows no foreign country can dominate Afghanistan.

"But if Afghanistan is caught in a situation of prolonged and intense conflict, it will easily become a hotbed of terrorism and extremism," Dr Hongda said.

"China is naturally worried that this will have a negative impact on Xinjiang's security and stability [which borders Afghanistan] and it will also be detrimental to the development of China's Belt and Road Initiative".

Counter-terrorism expert Raffaello Pantucci suggests that although China is investing billions into neighbouring Pakistan, for now it doesn't appear willing to do the same in Afghanistan.

"There's a lot of noise around Chinese investment, economic activity in Afghanistan, but the reality is, it's pretty thin," Mr Pantucci said.

'Playing with the truth'

With the once restive western region Xinjiang now pacified, China wants to ensure the Taliban's return doesn't precipitate the return of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement.

Chinese authorities say the group is responsible for hundreds of terrorist attacks in China. But their presence has been largely snuffed out over the last two decades.

Mr Pantucci maintained that regional security is China's preeminent concern.

"There was some evidence that Uyghur militants were gathering in Afghanistan [before September 11, 2001], using [areas] controlled by the Taliban to establish camps where they would talk about trying to attack China," he said.

That threat has dissipated since the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan, but a resurgent Taliban has provoked consternation in Beijing.

At the meeting in Tianjin, Mr Wang emphasised to the Taliban the need to cut ties with the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, according to a spokesperson.

"We hope the Afghan Taliban can draw a clear line with all terrorist organisations, including the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), and resolutely and effectively crack down on them," spokesperson Zhao Lijian said.

....... "The Taliban are on a diplomatic blitz, they are trying to charm everybody to say, 'we will not cause any trouble coming from Afghanistan to the rest of the world'," he said.

But China's interests are by no means immune from regional instability — just last month, an explosion and vehicle crash killed nine Chinese workers in Pakistan.

China was quick to label the incident a terrorist attack, but the details remain murky.

A friendly relationship with Pakistan's government hasn't shielded them from conflict, and experts maintain one with the Afghan Taliban may not either.

Mr Taneja said China's "transactional style" of dealing with foreign actors may not work with the Taliban in the long term.

"That's where I think that the Chinese Communist Party doesn't really understand their religion and doesn't really understand Islamic groups," he says.

As the US withdraws, China pins regional stability hopes on the Afghan Taliban (msn.com)

**panama hat** · 10-08-2021, 04:00 AM

Originally Posted by pickel

Are tight wars cheaper?

They have more elasticity

**Norton** · 10-08-2021, 06:26 AM

Major civil war soon. On one side the Pashtun Taliban, on the other the rest of the Afghan people who will fight back against them. No way the Afghan people which includes the various northern povincial warloards will allow the Pashtun Taliban to impose their midevil brand of Islam on them.

Civil war will further destabalize the region in a major way. Destabilization which will effect Afghan neighbors economically and increase terrorism in their countries. So to prevent this the neighborhood better sort it. Especially Iran and Pakistan who have to a great degree caused the whole mess.

Aside from Afghanistan's neighbors, other nation best stay out of it. The various Islamist groups need an enemy so let them point at each other, not the "west".

**Hugh Cow** · 10-08-2021, 06:43 AM

The Russkies must be pissing themselves after the Seppos effort to help kick them out of Afghanistan. The Taliban will eventually take over and its back to square one for Afghanistan. Should've left the Russians to it.

**panama hat** · 10-08-2021, 09:13 AM

Except the Russians got their butts kicked as well - too many body-bags coming home.

**OhOh** · 10-08-2021, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by pickel

Are tight wars cheaper?

What is your measuring stick?

Own/foreign citizens lives ended or disabled, MIC profits, political prestige, foreign assets acquired, foreign skills/technology/markets acquired, ....

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

The Taliban will eventually take over and its back to square one for Afghanistan.

Yes, that is one possibility.

Others may be chosen as the world continues to revolve, daily.

**panama hat** · 10-08-2021, 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by OhOh

What is your measuring stick?

7x8 1/2

**misskit** · 10-08-2021, 06:42 PM

U.S. leaves Afghans on their own as Taliban continue to take more territory

KABUL, Aug 9 (Reuters) – The United States said it was up to Afghan security forces to defend the country after Taliban militants captured a sixth provincial capital on Monday, along with border towns and trade routes.

President Joe Biden has said the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan will end on Aug. 31, arguing that the Afghan people must decide their own future and that he would not consign another generation of Americans to the 20-year war.

U.S. envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad has left for Qatar where he will “press the Taliban to stop their military offensive and to negotiate a political settlement,” the State Department said on Monday.

In talks over three days, representatives from governments and multilateral organizations will press for “a reduction of violence and ceasefire and a commitment not to recognize a government imposed by force,” the State Department said.

The Taliban, fighting to reimpose strict Islamic law after their 2001 ouster, have stepped up their campaign to defeat the government as foreign forces withdraw.

On Monday, they took Aybak, capital of the northern province of Samangan.

“Right now the Taliban are fighting with Afghan forces to capture the police headquarters and compound of the provincial governor,” said Ziauddin Zia, a lawmaker in Aybak.

“Several parts of the capital have fallen to the Taliban.”

The insurgents took three provincial capitals over the weekend – Zaranj in the southern province of Nimroz, Sar-e-Pul, in the northern province of the same name, and Taloqan, in northeastern Takhar province.

They had already taken the northern provincial capital of Kunduz and Lashkar Gah, capital of Helmand province.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the United States was deeply concerned about the trend but that Afghan security forces had the capability to fight the insurgent group.

“These are their military forces, these are their provincial capitals, their people to defend and it’s really going to come down to the leadership that they’re willing to exude here at this particular moment,” Kirby said.

Asked what the U.S. military can do if the Afghan security forces are not putting up a fight, Kirby said: “Not much.”

U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that while the military had warned Biden earlier this year that provincial capitals would fall with a withdrawal of troops, they were still surprised at how quickly some of them were being taken by the Taliban.

The United States carried out less than a dozen strikes over the weekend as the Taliban overran the provincial capitals, in one instance simply destroying equipment.

One official said the Afghan forces did not ask for any support as Kunduz was being overtaken.

RECRIMINATIONS

The Taliban gains have sparked recriminations over the withdrawal of foreign forces. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told the Daily Mail that the accord struck last year between the United States and the Taliban was a “rotten deal”.

Washington agreed to withdraw in a deal negotiated last year under Biden’s Republican predecessor, Donald Trump.

Wallace said his government had asked some NATO allies to keep their troops in Afghanistan once the U.S. troops departed, but failed to garner enough support.

“Some said they were keen, but their parliaments weren’t. It became apparent pretty quickly that without the United States as the framework nation it had been, these options were closed off,” Wallace said.

Germany’s defence minister rejected calls for its soldiers to return to Afghanistan after Taliban insurgents took Kunduz where German troops were deployed for a decade.

Afghan commandoes had launched a counterattack to try to beat back Taliban fighters who overran Kunduz, with residents fleeing the conflict describing the almost constant sound of gunfire and explosions.

In the west, near the border with Iran, security officials said heavy fighting was under way on the outskirts of Herat. Arif Jalali, head of Herat Zonal Hospital, said 36 people had been killed and 220 wounded over the past 11 days. More than half of the wounded were civilians.

UNICEF said 20 children were killed and that 130 children had been injured in southern Kandahar province in the past 72 hours.

“The atrocities grow higher by the day,” said Hervé Ludovic De Lys, UNICEF’s representative in Afghanistan.

FAMILIES FLEE

In Kunduz, many desperate families, some with young children and pregnant women, abandoned their homes, hoping to reach the relative safety of Kabul, 315 km (200 miles) to the south – a drive that would normally take around 10 hours.

Ghulam Rasool, an engineer, was trying to hire a bus to get his family to the capital as the sound of gunfire reverberated through the streets of his hometown.

“We may just be forced to walk till Kabul, but we are not sure if we could be killed on the way. … Ground clashes were not just stopping even for 10 minutes,” Rasool told Reuters.

He and several other residents, and a security official, said Afghan commandoes had launched an operation to clear the insurgents from Kunduz.

In Kabul itself, suspected Taliban fighters killed an Afghan radio station manager, government officials said, the latest in a long line of attacks targeting media workers.

Thousands were trying to enter Kabul, even after the city has witnessed attacks in diplomatic districts.

Speaking to Al Jazeera TV on Sunday, Taliban spokesman Muhammad Naeem Wardak warned the United States against further intervention to support government forces.

https://thefrontierpost.com/u-s-leav...ore-territory/

**bsnub** · 10-08-2021, 06:46 PM

Originally Posted by misskit

Taliban spokesman Muhammad Naeem Wardak warned the United States against further intervention to support government forces.

That is a bold and empty statement. This would not be happening if the US was still in the country. I hope those specter gunships continue to rain hellfire on the taliban scum.

**Klondyke** · 10-08-2021, 10:09 PM

Originally Posted by bsnub

This would not be happening if the US was still in the country.

Do you mean it would not be happening as it did not during the last 20 years?

**helge** · 10-08-2021, 11:16 PM

Originally Posted by panama hat

7x8 1/2

More like 56 and 7.5/12

**panama hat** · 11-08-2021, 05:55 AM

Originally Posted by helge

More like 56 and 7.5/12

I was never good at maths . . . never.

Originally Posted by Klondyke

Do you mean it would not be happening as it did not during the last 20 years?

Without retribution? At least you're not a Taliban apologist . . . oh, wait.

**Loy Toy** · 11-08-2021, 06:20 AM

What is happening now in Afghanistan is so similar to the global fight against Covid it is frightening.

The Americans sent their army into what they considered to be a problem territory and to kill the Taliban off but if anything their interference has only made the Taliban stronger and more determined. The speed at which they are taking back Afghan regions and cities is frightening.

The World has sent out vaccines with the first intention to kill off the Covid virus and whilst there was initial positive results the virus is fighting back and things are worsening daily with the added disease being that global economies are closing down again.

What is the moral of this story?

1. Let the Afghan army stand alone to fight the Taliban and if they lose they lose.

2. Continue to develop improved vaccines to battle Covid virus but open up all global economies again without any restrictions. There will be deaths and surges in infections but at least the global economies will recover helping billions of people who are suffering poverty.

**HuangLao** · 11-08-2021, 06:35 AM

Originally Posted by Loy Toy

What is happening now in Afghanistan is so similar to the global fight against Covid it is frightening.

The Americans sent their army into what they considered to be a problem territory and to kill the Taliban off but if anything their interference has only made the Taliban stronger and more determined. The speed at which they are taking back Afghan regions and cities is frightening.

The World has sent out vaccines with the first intention to kill off the Covid virus and whilst there was initial positive results the virus is fighting back and things are worsening daily with the added disease being that global economies are closing down again.

What is the moral of this story?

1. Let the Afghan army stand alone to fight the Taliban and if they lose they lose.

2. Continue to develop improved vaccines to battle Covid virus but open up all global economies again without any restrictions. There will be deaths and surges in infections but at least the global economies will recover helping billions of people who are suffering poverty.

The bottom line - it's no one's business or interest but their own.
Strange, the false/fake moral high ground almost always comes from the last occupier.

**OhOh** · 11-08-2021, 10:25 AM

All roads lead to the Battle for Kabul

City after city have fallen from government to Taliban control but Afghanistan's end-game is still unclear

by Pepe Escobar August 10, 2021

"The ever-elusive Afghan “peace” process negotiations re-start this Wednesday in Doha via the extended troika – the US, Russia, China and Pakistan. The contrast with the accumulated facts on the ground could not be starker.

In a coordinated blitzkrieg, the Taliban have subdued no less than six Afghan provincial capitals in only four days. The central administration in Kabul will have a hard time defending its stability in Doha.

It gets worse. Ominously, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has all but buried the Doha process. He’s already betting on civil war – from the weaponization of civilians in the main cities to widespread bribing of regional warlords, with the intent of building a “coalition of the willing” to fight the Taliban.

The capture of Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province, was a major Taliban coup. Zaranj is the gateway for India’s access to Afghanistan and further on to Central Asia via the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC).

India paid for the construction of the highway linking the port of Chabahar in Iran – the key hub of India’s faltering version of the New Silk Roads – to Zaranj.

At stake here is a vital Iran-Afghanistan border crossing cum Southwest/Central Asia transportation corridor. Yet now the Taliban control trade on the Afghan side. And Tehran has just closed the Iranian side. No one knows what happens next.

The Taliban are meticulously implementing a strategic master plan. There’s no smoking gun, yet – but highly informed outside help – Pakistani ISI intel? – is plausible.
First, they conquer the countryside – a virtually done deal in at least 85% of the territory. Then they control the key border checkpoints, as with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Spin Boldak with Balochistan in Pakistan. Finally, it’s all about encircling and methodically taking provincial capitals – that’s where we are now.

The final act will be the Battle for Kabul. This may plausibly happen as early as September, in a warped “celebration” of the 20 years of 9/11 and the American bombing of 1996-2001 Talibanistan.

That strategic blitzkrieg

What’s going on across the north is even more astonishing than in the southwest.

The Taliban have conquered Sheberghan, a heavily Uzbek-influenced area, and took no time to spread images of fighters in stolen garb posing in front of the now-occupied Dostum Palace. Notoriously vicious warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum happens to be the current Afghan vice-president.

The Taliban’s big splash was to enter Kunduz, which is still not completely subdued. Kunduz is very important strategically. With 370,000 people and quite close to the Tajik border, it’s the main hub of northeast Afghanistan.

Kabul government forces have simply fled. All prisoners were released from local jails. Roads are blocked. That’s significant because Kunduz is at the crossroads of two important corridors – to Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif. And crucially, it’s also a crossroads of corridors used to export opium and heroin.

The Bundeswehr used to occupy a military base near Kunduz airport, now housing the 217^th Afghan Army corps. That’s where the few remaining Afghan government forces have retreated.

The Taliban are now bent on besieging the historically legendary Mazar-i-Sharif, the big northern city, even more important than Kunduz. Mazar-i-Sharif is the capital of Balkh province. The top local warlord, for decades, has been Atta Mohammad Noor, who I met 20 years ago.

He’s now vowing to defend “his” city “until the last drop of my blood.” That, in itself, spells out a major civil war scenario.

The Taliban endgame here is to establish a west-east axis from Sheberghan to Kunduz and the also captured Taloqan, the capital of Takhar province, via Mazar-i-Sharif in Balkh province, and parallel to the northern borders with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

If that happens, we’re talking about an irreversible, logistical game-changer, with virtually the whole north escaping from the control of Kabul. No way the Taliban will “negotiate” this win – in Doha or anywhere else.

An extra astonishing fact is that all these areas do not feature a Pashtun majority, unlike Kandahar in the south and Lashkar Gah in the southwest, where the Taliban are still fighting to establish complete control.

The Taliban’s control over almost all international border crossings yielding customs revenue leads to serious questions about what happens next to the drug business.

Will the Taliban again interdict opium production – like the late Mullah Omar did in the early 2000s? A strong possibility is that distribution will not be allowed inside Afghanistan.

After all, export profits can only benefit Taliban weaponization – against future American and NATO “interference.” And Afghan farmers may earn much more with opium poppy cultivation than with other crops.
NATO’s abject failure in Afghanistan is visible in every aspect. In the past, Americans used military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The Bundeswehr used the base in Termez, Uzbekistan, for years.

Termez is now used for Russian and Uzbek joint maneuvers. And the Russians left their base in Kyrgzstan to conduct joint maneuvers in Tajikistan. The whole security apparatus in the neighboring Central Asian “stans” is being coordinated by Russia.

China’s main security priority, meanwhile, is to prevent future jihadi incursions in Xinjiang, which involve extremely hard mountain crossings from Afghanistan to Tajikistan and then to a no man’s land in the Wakhan corridor. Beijing’s electronic surveillance is tracking anything that moves in this part of the roof of the world.
This Chinese think tank analysis shows how the moving chessboard is being tracked. The Chinese are perfectly aware of the “military pressure on Kabul” running in parallel to the Taliban diplomatic offensive, but prefer to stress their “posing as an aggressive force ready to take over the regime.”

Chinese realpolitik also recognizes that “the United States and other countries will not easily give up the operation in Afghanistan for many years, and will not be willing to let Afghanistan become the sphere of influence of other countries.”

This leads to characteristic Chinese foreign policy caution, with practically an advice for the Taliban not to “be too big,” and try “to replace the Ghani government in one fell swoop.”

How to prevent a civil war

So is Doha DOA? Extended troika players are doing what they can to salvage it. There are rumors of feverish “consultations” with the members of the Taliban political office based in Qatar and with the Kabul negotiators.

The starter will be a meeting this Tuesday of the US, Russia, Afghanistan’s neighbors and the UN. Yet even before that, the Taliban political office spokesman, Naeem Wardak, has accused Washington of interfering in internal Afghan affairs.

Pakistan is part of the extended troika. Pakistani media is all-out involved in stressing how Islamabad’s leverage over the Taliban “is now limited.” An example is made of how the Taliban shut the key border crossing in Spin Boldak – actually a smuggling haven – demanding Pakistan ease visa restrictions for Afghans.

Now that is a real nest of vipers issue. Most old school Taliban leaders are based in Pakistan’s Balochistan and supervise what goes in and out of the border from a safe distance, in Quetta.

Extra trouble for the extended troika is the absence of Iran and India at the negotiating table. Both have key interests in Afghanistan, especially when it comes to its hopefully new peaceful role as a transit hub for Central-South Asia connectivity.

Moscow from the start wanted Tehran and New Delhi to be part of the extended troika. Impossible. Iran never sits on the same table with the US, and vice-versa. That’s the case now in Vienna, during the JCPOA negotiations, where they “communicate” via the Europeans.

New Delhi for its part refuses to sit on the same table with the Taliban, which it sees as a terrorist Pakistani proxy.

There’s a possibility that Iran and India may be getting their act together, and that would include even a closely connected position on the Afghan drama.
When Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar attended President Ebrahim Raisi’s inauguration last week in Tehran, they insisted on “close cooperation and coordination” also on Afghanistan.

What this would imply in the near future is increased Indian investment in the INSTC and the India-Iran-Afghanistan New Silk Road corridor. Yet that’s not going to happen with the Taliban controlling Zaranj.
Beijing for its part is focused on increasing its connectivity with Iran via what could be described as a Persian-colored corridor incorporating Tajikistan and Afghanistan. That will depend, once again, on the degree of Taliban control.

But Beijing can count on an embarrassment of riches: Plan A, after all, is an extended China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with Afghanistan annexed, whoever is in power in Kabul.

What’s clear is that the extended troika will not be shaping the most intricate details of the future of Eurasia integration. That will be up to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes Russia, China, Pakistan, India, the Central Asian “stans” and Iran and Afghanistan as current observers and future full-members.

So the time has come for the SCO’s ultimate test: how to pull off a near-impossible power-sharing deal in Kabul and prevent a devastating civil war, complete with imperial B-52 bombing."

All roads lead to the Battle for Kabul - Asia Times

**Klondyke** · 11-08-2021, 10:29 AM

Originally Posted by panama hat

Without retribution? At least you're not a Taliban apologist . . . oh, wait.

After all, aren't the Talibanies actually in first place also Afghans? (Yeh, before they were Mujahedeens, but they got mysteriously extinct - something like Dinosaurs).

**lom** · 11-08-2021, 10:40 AM

^^ That is a much more nuanced explanation of the situation than your indianpundit could ever produce.

**panama hat** · 11-08-2021, 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by Klondyke

After all, aren't the Talibanies actually in first place also Afghans?

You should ask them . . . I'm not sure if they see themselves as tribal first and Afghanis second or even third.

**Klondyke** · 11-08-2021, 10:52 AM

^^Do you think it should be made somehow like solving the problems within fellow countrymen in remote countries like in Korea, Vietnam, etc? (did they also protect ones against the others spraying acid on girls?)

**harrybarracuda** · 11-08-2021, 11:09 AM

Originally Posted by panama hat

You should ask them . . . I'm not sure if they see themselves as tribal first and Afghanis second or even third.

I think they are soldiers of Allah before anything else.

**panama hat** · 11-08-2021, 11:35 AM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

I think they are soldiers of Allah before anything else.

Right, that as well. Muslim first, tribal and then maybe Afghan - though nationhood may be a alien concept to them

**HermantheGerman** · 11-08-2021, 11:37 AM

Originally Posted by lom

^^ That is a much more nuanced explanation of the situation than your indianpundit could ever produce.

I was thinking the same thing

These articles from OhOh are all the same. There is no substance, but a lot of blahh blahh blahh.

**harrybarracuda** · 11-08-2021, 12:03 PM

Originally Posted by panama hat

Right, that as well. Muslim first, tribal and then maybe Afghan - though nationhood may be a alien concept to them

I think they want like a global "Islamic State" or something...

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