The COVID-2019 Thread

[jabir]

Every authority claims that testing is critical in the general effort, though much needed and potentially valuable data is being wasted with every test. While millions of tests are being conducted worldwide, testers should print out a simple sheet or screen with non-identifying personal data such as gender and age, smoker/drinker etc, occupation, wtf even height and weight wouldn't hurt, together with a list of previous ailments and underlying conditions, etc...send it all to a central depot for input, and you never know what gets coughed out.

It's not like you pop into a testing station, get done and off you go; there will be a wait, and that time could be used productively; also helps as a distraction. Nope, too easy, they'll never think of it.

[Bettyboo]

How does a third world country like Thailand manage to introduce a virus tracking app but the UK hasn't?

Another silly question:

If the virus takes up to 2 weeks before symptoms are observed and the lock down has been going for a month, or longer for Italy, then how are people getting infected? Shopping for groceries? Going to work? Or is it going to the hospital?

Britain, in fact most of Europe, has been shockingly poor.

I presume that asymptomatic cases are still in the wild, but as you say, if the 'lock down' is tight and effective then how long is the cycle for the virus to die out in the wild, so to speak? Say, two complete end to end cycles to stop transmission (just a guess)? Is that 8-10 weeks?

It's not a silly question, it's an interesting question. If the 'lock down' goes on so long is that because its ineffective (not being done thoroughly or other reasons?) or that the testing is so sparse that you're not actually tracking much of the virus movement or that there's so many asymptomatic cases that are passing it onto other folks who are asymptomatic cases on and on then when is the 'lock down' end point other than full vaccination?

The virus has been going on long enough that you'd expect folks such as the German health services to give good answers (not so much the British idiots...), so you reading German newspapers might be in a better position to answer these questions, Troy. What are the German medical press suggesting?

[harrybarracuda]

How does a third world country like Thailand manage to introduce a virus tracking app but the UK hasn't?

Creating an app is a ten minute job.

It's utterly fucking pointless if you haven't got the analysts and analytics behind it to process that ocean of data into actionable information.

Does that answer your question?

[harrybarracuda]

According to Raaab, the number tested is 40k with a promise to reach 100k by month's end; that's a pitiful number for an advanced nation that's had time enough to organise, and even so only if it were true. Then Starmer pointed out that Raaab's 40k is the testing capacity which has yet to be met, while the actual best number tested to date is 18k, whereupon Raaab agreed that everyone's doing well and must do better.

As of a week ago, Russia was testing at 100k.

We're being teased and lied to by incompetent elites, as usual, but no matter because in the end they'll manage to somehow squeeze credit where none is due.

Someone's head needs to roll, but it won't. Presumably that sort of expenditure should have at least landed on a minister's desk for approval.

But at least it shows they weren't ignoring testing, they just fucked it up. Good luck getting the money back from the robbing, inept chinky bastards.

LONDON — The two Chinese companies were offering a risky proposition: two million home test kits said to detect antibodies for the coronavirus for at least $20 million, take it or leave it.

The asking price was high, the technology was unproven and the money had to be paid upfront. And the buyer would be required to pick up the crate loads of test kits from a facility in China.

Yet British officials took the deal, according to a senior civil servant involved, then confidently promised tests would be available at pharmacies in as little as two weeks. “As simple as a pregnancy test,” gushed Prime Minister Boris Johnson. “It has the potential to be a total game changer.”

There was one problem, however. The tests did not work.

Found to be insufficiently accurate by a laboratory at Oxford University, half a million of the tests are now gathering dust in storage. Another 1.5 million bought at a similar price from other sources have also gone unused. The fiasco has left embarrassed British officials scrambling to get back at least some of the money.

“They might perhaps have slightly jumped the gun,” said Prof. Peter Openshaw of Imperial College London, a member of the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group.

U.K. Paid $20 Million for New Coronavirus Tests. They Didn’t Work. - The New York Times

[harrybarracuda]

The two topics that recur most often in the government’s daily press briefings are the supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) and Covid-19 tests. This is not going to stop. Rhetoric has failed, and supply chain management – a subject that ministers might previously only have read about as a cure for insomnia – is now an urgent issue.

Supply chain management is different from procurement. It’s the art of getting the right thing in the right place at the right time, and it’s not as easy as it looks – as the government is currently finding out.

A classic experiment in the field is called the Beer Game. Four people are asked to play different roles in the beer supply chain (customer, publican, distributor and brewery). They are told to place orders on each other to fulfill the demand placed on them, but not to keep too much stock.

To make things harder – and more realistic – the players are not allowed to talk to each other, and must place their orders silently, so that the others don’t know how much stock is being bought. Still, how hard can it be?

As participants in the Beer Game invariably find out, it turns out to be very hard indeed. The game usually ends in failure, frustration and recrimination. Even the simplest chain is in fact an unstable system, prone to surges of supply followed by shortages. The only constant is that the feast-and-famine effect gets worse the further down the chain you go. This effect was named “the bullwhip effect” by Professor Hau Lee at Stanford University in 1997. It has been a founding component of supply chain education ever since.

The bullwhip effect gets worse the longer the supply chain becomes, as the more links in the chain there are, the less likely it is that there will be timely communication of demand. The message about what the end consumer wants becomes garbled as it’s passed down the line.

Listening to the Health Secretary’s briefing carefully yesterday, all the symptoms of a bad case of bullwhip were revealed: the failure to say accurately what the demand is or how many items are needed, and from there to plan where they will come from, leads to desperate scrabbling for supply. So what’s the cure?

The most important thing is to be upfront about how much PPE we actually need. More than 500,000 healthcare professionals need multiple items every day. Only once the real demand is acknowledged can you start to ask whether sourcing single-use items by air freight is a sensible and sustainable answer to that demand. In the context of real use, reusable equipment that can be locally laundered is a more reliable source of supply, especially as there are UK manufacturers who have volunteered to make these reusable supplies and set up local cleaning and recycling service centres. The unit cost will probably be higher than for single-use items, but the overall cost will be lower – and, crucially, the simpler, closed-loop supply chain will be easier to manage. I trust Paul Deighton will understand this.

To achieve this, we need to get a picture of “true demand” from healthcare professionals, ignoring the distorted demand signals that pass through the many echelons of the NHS, and we must directly transmit this need to the factories that are making the items.

We must also understand the supply side and buy the right level of capacity, not items from the suppliers and logistics providers. The Dutch government, for example, has set up an “air bridge” between China and Amsterdam, providing deliveries three times a week.

Lastly, we need to establish a single point of control – think of it like the air traffic control tower at an airport – where the complete supply and demand picture is constantly updated and decisions are made based on this. This “control tower” needs to direct operations and provide all the players in the supply chain with a single version of the truth.

In the government’s attempts to secure PPE and testing supply there are clearly many people and organisations involved. My sense is that many of these will be unconsciously complicating the situation for each other, just as players do in the Beer Game. The bullwhip effect has been unleashed; it can become destructive.

The government, and particularly the Department of Health and Social Care, has spent a lot of time and money trying to get things right, but they would do well to take the advice of supply chain professionals, who have been solving these problems in industry for years. Lives depend on it.


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/business-and-finance/2020/04/why-uk-cannot-get-its-ppe-supply-chain-work

[baldrick]

As participants in the Beer Game invariably find out,

use the best tech

AirAsia Group Bhd's logistics arm Teleport announced Thursday the launch of Freightchain, a digital network for transparently confirming and tracking air cargo based on distributed ledger blockchain technology.

Shippers and freight forwarders can now book and confirm any of AirAsia's 247 aircraft to carry cargo using Freightchain without the need for time-consuming go-betweens, sales and email channels. The system seamlessly tracks bids, transparently tracks sales and automatically reveals linked network chains for freight delivery.

Using Freightchain shippers will be able to discover all available cargo network connections owned by airlines in a manner that gives them transparency into how their cargo will get from point A to point B. The system will also facilitate on-demand bookings in real-time using a bidding process that is then validated on the blockchain.

"We deliberately launched Freightchain during this period of uncertainty within global supply chains, caused by the coronavirus pandemic," Freightchain Chief Technology Officer, Vishal Batra said. "Agile software platforms like Freightchain help to connect uneven supply and demand amidst a rapidly evolving environment. Trust and transparency are needed now more than ever."

Freightchain provides global air cargo connectivity with no agency fees, smart on-demand digital interlinks for booking cargo space and improved cargo capacity utilization. By putting all cargo passing through its system onto the blockchain, every node in the network is aware of the current real-time status of the entire network, meaning that cargo bidders can rapidly know where shipments can be stowed and where they will go.

[...] According to Teleport, Freightchain can simplify the booking process by allowing for confirmation to happen 10 times faster than traditional methods by providing programmatic discovery of routes using data from its blockchain network.

[...] With Freightchain, the connections data, contacts and contracts all exist within the blockchain, making it simple to identify the links, book the flights and confirm an itinerary.

[Loy Toy]

This whole affair is boring my tits off!!!!!!!!!!!!

Being stuck in my room is an absolute joy when compared to listening to the shite that is being broadcast lately.

The only amusement I get is watching Trump make a complete fool of himself on a daily bases and then the C.N.N newsreaders go on and on and on about the fact that he is a fool.

We all know you mutherfickers.

[panama hat]

The virus has been going on long enough that you'd expect folks such as the German health services to give good answers (not so much the British idiots...), so you reading German newspapers might be in a better position to answer these questions, Troy. What are the German medical press suggesting?

Germany is looking at 200.000 covid-19 tests per day with results to be had the same evening/night . . . and Bosch is releasing a machine that can detect covid-19 and nine other covids to differentiate them - decreasing panic and focus on the wrong cause of illness.

Corona-Pandemie: Welche und wie viele Tests gibt es? | tagesschau.de


Sweden's in the shit as numbers are increasing and blood donations have been found to contain covid-19 infected blood. Stockholm is to be allowed to be infected to 1/3 of the population to 'test' herd immunity but this contradicts previous government statements that the government wants to restrict the number of infections . . .

Schweden: Peinliche Pannen bei Corona-Studien | tagesschau.de


In other news, over 1000 sailors on the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle have been infected with covid-19, the number is rising.

Franzosischer Flugzeugtrager: 1000 Seeleute mit Corona infiziert | tagesschau.de


After a month of relatively strict measures (for European standards) the government is looking at loosening restrictions . . . but not too quickly

[Bettyboo]

Germany is looking at 200.000 covid-19 tests per day with results to be had the same evening/night . . . and Bosch is releasing a machine that can detect covid-19 and nine other covids to differentiate them - decreasing panic and focus on the wrong cause of illness.

Corona-Pandemie: Welche und wie viele Tests gibt es? | tagesschau.de


Sweden's in the shit as numbers are increasing and blood donations have been found to contain covid-19 infected blood. Stockholm is to be allowed to be infected to 1/3 of the population to 'test' herd immunity but this contradicts previous government statements that the government wants to restrict the number of infections . . .

Schweden: Peinliche Pannen bei Corona-Studien | tagesschau.de


In other news, over 1000 sailors on the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle have been infected with covid-19, the number is rising.

Franzosischer Flugzeugtrager: 1000 Seeleute mit Corona infiziert | tagesschau.de


After a month of relatively strict measures (for European standards) the government is looking at loosening restrictions . . . but not too quickly

^ hopefully.

The British have been terrible, running around in circles, like much of the Empire days... It does kinda make you wonder how in a "developed" nation some good health care and social management should get to grips with this within a few months. Of course, Europe had the closing borders issue to start with, so that would have slowed Germany down a bit.

[harrybarracuda]

It's funny watching these chimps continually making a fucking arse of themselves.

NONTHABURI, April 22 (TNA) — Deputy Prime Minister/Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has ordered the National Vaccine Committee to work out a plan within three months for the development of a vaccine for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

The original timeframe of six months was too long and the process should be accelerated, he said.

Mr Anutin also said the National Vaccine Institute would sign an agreement to jointly develop a COVID-19 vaccine with China where the disease outbreak started.

Thailand would buy a COVID-19 vaccine from the country that first makes it, he said.

Dr Suwannachai Wattanayingcharoenchai, director-general of the Disease Control Department, said that in the joint vaccine development project with China, Thailand would conduct human trials of a vaccine in three phases.

Thailand would likely acquire a vaccine from China if it is successfully developed, he said.

Only China and the United States were developing a vaccine for COVID-19, he said.

Dr Suwannachai added that Thailand was also trying to develop a COVID-19 vaccine by itself and the Disease Control Department, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Thonburi and the Faculty of Pharmacy of Silpakorn University were developing it. (TNA)

Thailand plans COVID-19 vaccine in 3 months - Pattaya Mail

[Dragonfly]

How does a third world country like Thailand manage to introduce a virus tracking app but the UK hasn't?

Another silly question:

If the virus takes up to 2 weeks before symptoms are observed and the lock down has been going for a month, or longer for Italy, then how are people getting infected? Shopping for groceries? Going to work? Or is it going to the hospital?

I don't think they are telling us everything, one theory is that the R0 is much higher than 3, possibly more like 16 or 18

[misskit]

Thailand reports 13 new infections today, no lockdown relaxation yet


Thailand’s new COVID-19 infection rate fell to 13 today, but it is unlikely that the lockdown restrictions will be relaxed on May 1st, as had been hoped, in the 32 provinces with no new confirmed cases for over two weeks.


CCSA spokesman Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin told the media today that the CCSA has never said that the measures would be eased in those 32 provinces. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is also the CCSA chairman, has always insisted on extreme caution, with all aspects to be considered and the approval of the cabinet being required before any restrictions are eased.


“It is now only April. We have just gone through four rounds. There are altogether 12 rounds,” said Dr. Taweesin as he likened the fight against COVID-19 to a 12-round boxing match.


The country’s accumulated infections to date are 2,839 and recoveries have increased to 2,430, including 78 more cases today. One new fatality was reported today, bringing total death toll to 50. 259 infected patients are still in hospital.


Dr. Taweesin said that new the infection rate has slowed, thanks to the cooperation of the public in observing the advice to stay at home and maintain social distancing.


The latest fatality was admitted to a hospital in Bangkok on March 21st with a brain haemorrhage, but she was later found to be infected with coronavirus. Her condition deteriorated steadily until her death on April 21st from septicemia and breathing failure.


Of the 13 new confirmed cases today, five were in contact with infected people, one is a Thai returnee from abroad, one visited a crowded place, two worked in a crowded workplace and three were the found as a result of pro-active testing in Phuket.


Dr. Taweesin said that nine provinces have not reported a new case for about a month, 32 provinces have reported no infections for over two weeks and 14 other provinces are without a single new infection for seven days.


Additionally, there are 10,942 cases under investigation in Bangkok, 4,060 cases in the southern border province of Yala, 3,578 cases in Nonthaburi and 2,136 cases in Phuket.


The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration has conducted random tests on 682 people in slums in Khlong Toei and Bang Khen districts after Songkran and found only one infection.


55 Thais are due back from Turkey and 144 from Malaysia today, while 31 Thai tourists and students from Japan and 171 Thai pilgrims from India are scheduled to arrive tomorrow.

Thailand reports 13 new infections today, no lockdown relaxation yet – Thai PBS World

[harrybarracuda]

[Troy]

^ hopefully.

The British have been terrible, running around in circles, like much of the Empire days... It does kinda make you wonder how in a "developed" nation some good health care and social management should get to grips with this within a few months. Of course, Europe had the closing borders issue to start with, so that would have slowed Germany down a bit.

P.H. has given a pretty good account. Germany is taking a softly, softly approach to easing restrictions. The main focus is on distance from others and how unnatural and difficult this is. Working enviroment has changed with skeleton staff at work and rest working from home 4 days a week. Even car parks have been split at work to keep people apart.

I read that they are trying out different drugs to find effectiveness in combatting the virus. They are also trying out different ways to inhibit the virus from infecting the body. They don't like Trump's anti-malarial drugs due to side effects. The Japanese one is also having to be used in too high a dosage to be safe.

No mention of when borders will be open to non EU nationals or when I might be able to get a flight back.

Population density in Isaan suits me ...

[jabir]

Bloomberg: China reports a growing number of patients that recovered and tested negative, but have since tested positive. Could be ominous.

It's not known at this stage whether they were reinfected, which would be a bad sign, or if having recovered their metabolism was left vulnerable to some mutation or other condition, or if they relapsed due to residual traces which current testing methods are unable to identify.

[harrybarracuda]

Bloomberg: China reports a growing number of patients that recovered and tested negative, but have since tested positive. Could be ominous.

It's not known at this stage whether they were reinfected, which would be a bad sign, or if having recovered their metabolism was left vulnerable to some mutation or other condition, or if they relapsed due to residual traces which current testing methods are unable to identify.

Or mutations make new strains too different for existing antibodies to detect? I mean the chinkies are saying there are 30+ strains now.

[misskit]

A

Bloomberg: China reports a growing number of patients that recovered and tested negative, but have since tested positive. Could be ominous.

I’m thinking they were tested with some of those dodgy kits that have only 50% accuracy after they recovered. A false negative then later a true positive. Still worrisome just the same that people are carrying the virus after recovery.

[HuangLao]

A

I’m thinking they were tested with some of those dodgy kits that have only 50% accuracy after they recovered. A false negative then later a true positive. Still worrisome just the same that people are carrying the virus after recovery.

Still a lot to learn from this bug....
Just when they think they have it understood, throws a curve or three.

[Troy]

I don't think they are telling us everything, one theory is that the R0 is much higher than 3, possibly more like 16 or 18

Not sure where you got such a high figure from. The studies from China give a mean R0 of 2.4 and upper bound of 4.6. Imperial college used 4.6 in their model suggesting at least 78% of population requires to be vaccinated before problem becomes insignificant. There is no vaccination against it yet so lockdown is going to continue for some time.

[harrybarracuda]

Not sure where you got such a high figure from.

Are you serious?

It's Buttplug FFS, he hasn't got a fucking clue.

[harrybarracuda]

Chinky infection counts of course, so stick a 0 on the end at least.

Authorities in the northeastern Chinese city of Harbin further tightened restrictions on inbound traffic and private gatherings on Wednesday to contain its second wave of coronavirus infections blamed on imported cases.

Harbin, the capital of Heilongjiang Province with a population of some 10 million, has banned all nonresidents and their vehicles from entering residential compounds, according to local authorities.

In order to go in and out of their guarded residential areas, locals must have a guard scan a QR code on their smartphone, with the color green indicating a COVID-19 risk-free status, while also wearing a mask, the official notice said.

Heilongjiang, a northeastern province on the border with Russia, has become the epicenter of the second wave of infections in China, confirming 57 additional symptomatic COVID-19 patients in the past 10 days.

Earlier this month, China temporarily closed all land border crossings with Russia to curb the spread of the virus.

At around the same time, Harbin and the border city of Suifenhe also started requiring all international arrivals to undergo four weeks of isolation as well as testing.

But Harbin, which still receives flights from Russia, reported seven new locally transmitted cases on Wednesday, bringing the current number of COVID-19 cases in the city to 75, including 23 cases with no symptoms. Around 1,400 people are currently under medical observation, according to the city.

Also, on Wednesday, the National Health Commission reported 72 new coronavirus infections on the mainland, 30 of which involved individuals displaying symptoms with the remainder showing none.

Mainland China continues to detect a notable portion of its new infections in Chinese nationals returning from overseas.

So-called imported cases accounted for 30 of the new infections reported on Wednesday, including 23 with symptoms.
With no new deaths recorded in the past week, the death toll on the mainland stands at 4,632, while the overall tally of confirmed cases on the mainland has now reached 82,788, the commission said.

So far, roughly 93 percent of the country's total COVID-19 patients have recovered from the disease.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/fe41a3ccef67-china-reports-72-new-coronavirus-cases-flare-up-continues-in-north.html

[Dragonfly]

Not sure where you got such a high figure from. The studies from China give a mean R0 of 2.4 and upper bound of 4.6. Imperial college used 4.6 in their model suggesting at least 78% of population requires to be vaccinated before problem becomes insignificant. There is no vaccination against it yet so lockdown is going to continue for some time.

the lockdown is obviously not working, so there is something else they are not telling us

a famous professor suggested that the R0 might be much higher than we thought, which we would be good news

that would mean the population would get crowd immunity much faster,

another theory for the confinement not working is that the virus could survive in the air in suspension for up to 10min

will need to wait for all that shit to get sort out, but lockdown doesn't work, that's for sure

[Dragonfly]

Are you serious?

It's Buttplug FFS, he hasn't got a fucking clue.

why don't you share with us another of your loony conspiracy theory about Russia or China

[misskit]

Gov. Cuomo releases preliminary estimates from antibody study


New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday released preliminary estimates from an antibody study.


The state collected approximately 3,000 antibody samples from 40 locations in 19 counties. Preliminary estimates show a 13.9 percent infection rate, or an estimated 2.7 million people statewide, Cuomo said.


The results were broken down by region, race and age. No one younger than the age of 18 was tested.


"This basically quantifies what we have been seeing anecdotally," Cuomo said.

Gov. Cuomo releases preliminary estimates from antibody study

[harrybarracuda]

So a word that will get a lot of publicity in coming months:

"Chaddox-1"

Coronavirus: Why Oxford university is so confident in an early vaccine win | World News | Sky News