Originally Posted by
Bettyboo
Bowie, I don't agree with your testing logic for one simple reason: the virus is so contagious. In some places, such as Taiwan, and to some extent Korea, where every case is tracked and hotspots are closed down very quickly then there's some chance to control the virus - still yet to see if this will be effective over time. In most places, certainly Europe and the US, it was not initially contained, so social distancing measures work to slow the spread down, not to slow the end of day total spread rate. If a vaccine comes quickly then the social distancing will have slowed the rate down and it can then be effectively stopped, but the longer it takes to get a vaccine (and remember, experts are still saying 12-18 months), the more the virus will spread thoroughly through societies/countries. Look at the US in a week's time, a month's time, the numbers will already be far huger than you earlier stated - social distancing (which the US and Europe have failed at thusfar) only slow down the spread, they don't stop it.
With the numbers in the US today, actual real figures today for the USoA, 1 person in every 1,300 has corvid-19; that's 5 times higher than your global statistic today, in the US - and the US is growing so fast; the US is probably, what, as a rough guess based on Italy, Germany, etc, 1/10th of what it'll be in a month?. It's not gonna get any better in South America or Africa or Indian sub-continent is it?
If you tested everyone today and most were negative, that has no meaning when in 1 years time if you tested again most people on the planet might have had the virus - it just takes time to spread; lots of negative tests early in a virus lifetime isn't indicative of end of day figures.
With such a virus, that spreads so quickly and easily, the only thing that can stop massive numbers, thousands of times higher than your prediction, is a vaccine. If it's developed almost immediately then your figures can be right, let's hope so.