The COVID-2019 Thread

[HuangLao]

Massive wave of chinkies and covid incoming.

....and many are easily taken in.

[harrybarracuda]

....and many are easily taken in.

They don't need to be Jeff, they're already booked into those zero-dollar chinky-owned hotels.

[harrybarracuda]

Well Thailand is making an absolute shit show of its attempts to say the chinky covid wave is coming without saying the chinky covid wave is coming.

Naturally all the antivax loons are up in arms, because it appears to be a case of simply not being allowed in if you can't prove you are vaccinated/immune/exempt.

Will be hilarious to see what happens tomorrow. There will be people already in the air that don't realise when they land after midnight tonight they will be expected to prove they are vaccinated.

[Joe 90]

More than 650,000 deaths were registered in the UK in 2022 - 9% more than 2019.


This represents one of the largest excess death levels outside the pandemic in 50 years.


Though far below peak pandemic levels, it has prompted questions about why more people are still dying than normal.


Data indicates pandemic effects on health and NHS pressures are among the leading explanations.


Is it Covid?

Covid is still killing people, but is involved in fewer deaths now than at the start of the pandemic. Roughly 38,000 deaths involved Covid in 2022 compared with more than 95,000 in 2020.


We are still seeing more deaths overall than would be expected based on recent history. The difference in 2022 - compared with 2020 and 2021 - is that Covid deaths were one of several factors, rather than the main explanation for this excess.




So what else might be going on?


The crisis in healthcare

A number of doctors are blaming the wider crisis in the NHS.


At the start of 2022, death rates were looking like they'd returned to pre-pandemic levels. It wasn't until June that excess deaths really started to rise - just as the number of people waiting for hours on trolleys in English hospitals hit levels normally seen in winter.


On 1 January 2023, the president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine suggested the crisis in urgent care could be causing "300-500 deaths a week".


It is not a figure recognised by NHS England, but it's roughly what you get if you multiply the number of people waiting long periods in A&E with the extra risk of dying estimated to come with those long waits (of between five and 12 hours).


It is possible to debate the precise numbers, but it's not controversial to say that your chances are worse if you wait longer for treatment, be that waiting for an ambulance to get to you, being stuck in an ambulance outside a hospital or in A&E.


And we are seeing record waits in each of those areas.


In November, for example, it took 48 minutes on average for an ambulance in England to respond to a suspected heart attack or stroke, compared to a target of 18 minutes.

• England: Record number of ambulances queue outside A&E
• Northern Ireland: Inquiry into deaths after ambulance waits
• Scotland: Why is the NHS under so much pressure?
• Wales: NHS on a knife-edge, warns health leader

Lasting effect of pandemic

Some of the excess may be people whose deaths were hastened by the after-effects of a Covid infection.


A number of studies have found people are more likely to have heart problems and strokes in the weeks and months after catching Covid, and some of these may not end up being linked to the virus when the death is registered.


As well as the impact on the heart of the virus itself, some of this may be contributed to by the fact many people didn't come in for screenings and non-urgent treatment during the peak of the pandemic, storing up trouble for the future.




We can see that the number of people starting treatment for blood pressure or with statins - which can help prevent future heart attacks - plunged during the pandemic and, a year later still hadn't recovered.


The largest jump in excess deaths was seen in men aged 50-64, most commonly caused by heart problems.


No evidence of vaccine effect

The rise in cardiac problems has been pointed to by some online as evidence that Covid vaccines are driving the rise in deaths, but this conclusion is not supported by the data.


One type of Covid vaccine has been linked to a small rise in cases of heart inflammation and scarring (pericarditis and myocarditis). But this particular vaccine side-effect was mainly seen in boys and young men, while the excess deaths are highest in older men - aged 50 or more.


And these cases are too rare - and mostly not fatal - to account for the excess in deaths.


Finally, figures up to June 2022 looking at deaths from all causes show unvaccinated people were more likely to die than vaccinated people.


While this data on its own can't tell us it's the vaccine protecting people from dying - there are too many complicating factors - if vaccines were driving excess deaths we would expect this to be the other way around.

[harrybarracuda]

The NHS is a fucking mess, and it's not just down to Covid swamping the A&E's.

[harrybarracuda]

People in China worried on Thursday about spreading COVID-19 to aged relatives as they planned returns to their home towns for holidays that the World Health Organization warns could inflame a raging outbreak.

The Lunar New Year holiday, which officially starts on Jan. 21, comes after China last month abandoned a strict anti-virus regime of mass lockdowns that prompted widespread frustration and boiled over into historic protests.

That abrupt U-turn unleashed COVID on a population of 1.4 billion which lacks natural immunity, having been shielded from the virus since it first erupted in late 2019, and includes many elderly who are not fully vaccinated.

The outbreak spreading from China’s mega-cities to rural areas with weaker medical resources is overwhelming some hospitals and crematoriums.

With scant official data from China, the WHO on Wednesday said it would be challenging to manage the virus over a holiday period considered the world’s largest annual migration of people.

Other warnings from top Chinese health experts for people to avoid aged relatives during the holidays shot to the most-read item on China’s Twitter-like Weibo on Thursday.

“This is a very pertinent suggestion, return to the home town … or put the health of the elderly first,” wrote one user. Another user said they did not dare visit their grandmother and would leave gifts for her on the doorstep.

“This is almost the New Year and I’m afraid that she will be lonely,” the user wrote.

More than two billion trips are expected across China over the broader Lunar New Year period, which started on Jan. 7 and runs for 40 days, according to the transport ministry. That is double last year’s trips and 70 per cent of those seen in 2019 before the pandemic emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

“I will stay at home and avoid going to very crowded places,” said Chen, a 27-year-old documentary filmmaker in Beijing who plans to visit her home town in the eastern province of Zhejiang.

Chen said she would disinfect her hands before meeting elderly relatives, such as her grandmother, who has managed to avoid infection.

Chinese worry for elderly as WHO warns of COVID-19 surge over Lunar New Year - National | Globalnews.ca

[harrybarracuda]

Oh dear, someone has released the Kraken....

Everything we know about new Kraken variant Covid as virus rises in UK - Cheshire Live

[misskit]

Health Authorities Monitor Covid Spread After Influx of International Tourists

BANGKOK (NNT) - Health officials in Thailand have stepped up measures to monitor COVID-19 spread, as the country welcomes more visitors from around the world.


The National Communicable Diseases Committee today endorsed the latest set of public health measures to monitor and control the spread of COVID-19. Precautionary measures will be taken to control potential import cases and new variants, including rapid or PCR testing upon arrival for travelers exhibiting respiratory symptoms, and genomic sequencing of wastewater samples from aircraft.


Travelers who are returning to countries that require a negative COVID-19 test, namely China and India, are now required to hold travel insurance valid for COVID-19 treatment for their entire stay in Thailand, plus 7 days beyond their intended stay.


Travelers visiting Thailand for work and education purposes such as officials on a mission, airline crew, and students may opt to show school or employment certificates instead of insurance papers. Travelers who do not have the appropriate health insurance will need to buy one before being permitted to enter the country.


The committee has approved the establishment of a COVID-19 subcommittee that focuses on international arrivals, in order to ensure effective management and seamless cooperation.


Health officials have also allowed health facilities to offer government-procured COVID-19 vaccines to interested tourists at an appropriate fee, while prioritizing the vaccine inventory for Thai nationals.


Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Public Health Anutin Charnvirakul said the COVID-19 situation in Thailand has seen a lower number of severe cases and deaths.


The minister said the general public, particularly the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, should keep up to date with their vaccination schedule for optimal protection against severe illness and deaths from COVID-19.


The current official guideline for COVID-19 vaccination in Thailand is for each person to receive at least 4 doses of the vaccine, with boosters given every 4 months.

Health Authorities Monitor Covid Spread After Influx of International Tourists

[harrybarracuda]

Health officials in Thailand have stepped up measures to monitor COVID-19 spread, as the country welcomes more visitors from around the world.

Translation:

They're keeping a close eye on the chinkies but are scared to admit it.

[harrybarracuda]

Well that will be a relief to a lot of people I would imagine.

Since long Covid emerged, how best to define it, predict it, and treat it has been up for debate, but perhaps the most urgent question for patients and providers alike has been how long it lasts. A new study analyzing nearly 2 million patient records in Israel concludes that for most people, the troubling symptoms that persist after a mild Covid infection fade away after about a year.

https://www.statnews.com/2023/01/11/mild-infections-long-covid-symptoms-clear-after-a-year-large-study/

[harrybarracuda]

Bit busier at Chinese funeral homes at the moment... Apparently this is replicated across the country....

[HuangLao]

Be cautious and aware of the new lab produced variants.
They're coming.

....become we allow it.

[harrybarracuda]

Be cautious and aware of the new lab produced variants.
They're coming.

....become we allow it.

Jeff, don't post till your meds kick in.

[helge]

From danish radio news today.

2022 statistics for total numbers of dead danes: Gone up 9 % compared to an average year.

Blame is on the lockdowns in start of the pandemic.

We weren't exposed to other vira in the same degree as earlier, and are therefore weaker


Sweden didn't close shit and took a heavy beating, but haven't got an above average death toll in 22.

What I heard and makes sense

[harrybarracuda]

From danish radio news today.

2022 statistics for total numbers of dead danes: Gone up 9 % compared to an average year.

Blame is on the lockdowns in start of the pandemic.

We weren't exposed to other vira in the same degree as earlier, and are therefore weaker


Sweden didn't close shit and took a heavy beating, but haven't got an above average death toll in 22.

What I heard and makes sense

Well post the link then, otherwise it's just you banging on about some shit you didn't understand on radio.

[prawnograph]

Well that will be a relief to a lot of people I would imagine.

Long covid

The friend who I can 'thank' for passing her Covid to me when I was staying with her in NZ early this year has long Covid.
For an active hiker/tramper, regularly off on her geology trips returning carrying a backpack of rocks as they do, it's really worn her out, and having also had to cut her two city walking/exercise groups it will be a long time to rebuild to previous fitness levels, said even yoga was too much.
I'd have rated her as well above average health-wise, careful diet, no alcohol ever (that was my suggested remedy).

My brother said he thought he also had long Covid, but he's an overweight anti-fitness pizza-eating lump of lard and he had all the symptoms well before Covid. Noice try, but I'm not buying it.

[helge]

Well post the link then, otherwise it's just you banging on about some shit you didn't understand on radio.

Yeah
You can go look after a link for some radio news
Nyheder - Fa Seneste Nyt fra i dag | DR

[harrybarracuda]

Yeah, since this is an English language forum perhaps you could at least translate the key.

That could be the number of dead stoats found on the roads for all anyone knows.

[HuangLao]

[harrybarracuda]

What did we learn then Jeff? That we shouldn't crow about being the first to invent a "vaccine" when it's shit?

[Shutree]

Bit busier at Chinese funeral homes at the moment... Apparently this is replicated across the country....

I think January 26th, 2020 was Chinese New year.
A fair comparison would be next Monday, January 23rd, 2023.

[harrybarracuda]

I think January 26th, 2020 was Chinese New year.
A fair comparison would be next Monday, January 23rd, 2023.

It was also the middle of chinky lockdowns when the virus wasn't running rampant through the population like it is now.

Which is a fair comparison.

[misskit]

FDA scientists propose an annual Covid shot matched to current strains

cientists at the Food and Drug Administration propose making Covid vaccination a regular, once-a-year shot that is updated to match current strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, according to documents posted by the FDA on Monday.


For people who are older or immunocompromised, the FDA would recommend two annual doses of the revised shot.


The new proposals were outlined ahead of a Thursday meeting of the FDA’s advisory panel on vaccines and related biological products, which will be asked to give the agency feedback on its plan. The committee will be asked to vote only on whether the existing vaccines, which are based on the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 that circulated in 2020, should be changed to match the current booster shots, which contain both the original strain and the newer Omicron strain.

The committee will also be asked to discuss moving to a one-dose vaccine for most people, with a two-dose series for young children, older adults, and those with compromised immune systems, and to provide guidance on how to make periodic updates to the vaccines in order to match current circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2.

The FDA convenes expert committees to get guidance, but is not bound by their votes or recommendations. Still, it usually follows their advice.

Some recent high-profile votes have seemed to show an unusual tension between the regulator and its advisory committees, however. Six members of the committee, including its acting chair, recently told CNN that they were disappointed that the FDA did not present data to them about the number of cases of infection in trials of the booster shot made by Moderna, although they also said it would not have changed their vote.


And the agency was recently criticized by two congressional committees for the way it handled the advice of a different expert committee, on the Alzheimer’s drug Aduhelm. The committee recommended rejecting the drug, but the agency approved it. The decision was widely criticized and the medicine has barely been used.


In November 2021, the FDA chose to widely approve Covid boosters for all individuals. That September, the advisory committee had recommended booster shots be limited to those 65 and older.


One of the key questions about the new proposal on Covid vaccines is what degree of evidence is required for the new boosters. The Covid vaccines manufactured by Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Novavax, and Johnson & Johnson were all originally tested in large clinical trials where patients were randomized to receive either the vaccines or a placebo. All of these studies showed dramatic efficacy against the original strain.


But a rare safety concern and lower efficacy resulted in use of the J&J vaccine plummeting, and manufacturing and regulatory issues kept Novavax’s vaccine off the market, making the Pfizer and Moderna shots the main ones that are used in the U.S. For younger children, the Pfizer vaccine currently requires a three-dose series, not a two-dose one.

The immunity provided by the shots waned both because it tended to decrease over time and because newer strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus were better at evading it. Giving booster shots increased this immunity, both against the original strain and against newer ones.


What has been less clear is whether updating the booster to match the current Omicron strain as well as the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 granted added protection. The FDA’s scientists present a wealth of studies showing that the new boosters increase antibody levels for people who were previously vaccinated with the original vaccine.


They also present observational studies, in which researchers collect data from the real world and try to control for variables that might change the study result, that suggest the new boosters are protective.


One study, of a national Covid testing program, showed that the efficacy of two doses of the original vaccine against symptomatic Covid was 30% in people 18 to 49 years of age, compared to 58% for those who received the booster. For those 50 to 64 years old, those figures were 31% and 48%, and for those over 65 they were 28% and 43%.

But the most important role of a vaccine is preventing hospitalization and death, not symptoms. A second study using a different database showed that a booster dose of the newer vaccine reduced emergency department and urgent care visits by 56% compared to no vaccine at all. For those who had received their last vaccine dose a year ago, the reduction in ED and urgent care visits was 50%.


A third study, conducted when the BA.5 Omicron variant was circulating, showed an even higher efficacy against Covid hospitalization in those over 65: 73% compared to those with previous vaccination with the original vaccines.


The FDA scientists also point to a recent study, conducted in Israel, comparing the benefits for those 65 years and older who received the new booster in Israel to those who did not. Those who received the booster were 81% less likely to be hospitalized and 86% less likely to die. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed.

FDA proposes annual Covid shot matched to current strains

[harrybarracuda]

About 80% of China’s population has been infected with Covid-19 since restrictions were lifted in early December, Chinese health authorities have said.

The figure, which would equate to about 1.2 billion people but cannot be confirmed by outside bodies, prompted some pandemic experts to estimate that more than 1 million may have died – far more than the government’s official tally of about 72,000.

Eight in 10 people in China caught Covid since early December, say officials | China | The Guardian

[harrybarracuda]

Still lying about the numbers but probably true to say that most of the population have had it and those that were going to die have died.

Chinese health officials say the country's current wave of Covid-19 infections is "coming to an end".


The number of severe Covid cases and deaths is trending downward, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a report.


It also said there had been "no obvious rebound" during Lunar New Year holidays last week, where millions reunited for family gatherings.


There have long been questions raised about China's Covid reporting.


But experts say the decline reported now corresponds with the expected timing of an end to this major wave.


The virus tore through Chinese cities and towns after authorities lifted zero-Covid restrictions in December. However fever clinic visit rates have dropped over 90% through January and hospitalisation rates are down over 85%.


Fears that the virus could surge again during the festive period have also not yet eventuated.


In its report, the CDC said: "There has not been an obvious rebound in Covid cases during the Lunar New Year holidays.


"In this time, no new variant has been discovered, and the country's current wave is coming to an end."


It also reported a sharp decline in the daily Covid death toll reported by hospitals - from a peak of 4,300 deaths on 4 January to 896 deaths on 23 January.


Infectious diseases expert Hsu Li Yang told the BBC: "This drop in deaths follows the decline in the first huge wave of cases after China relaxed its restrictions, which is understandable and has been seen in virtually every country experiencing a large Covid wave.


"We will know soon if the Lunar New Year celebrations will trigger another surge in China cases, but it is unlikely to match what was experienced in December and the earlier part of January 2023."


One of China's leading epidemiologists - and former head of the CDC Zeng Guang -had earlier this month warned that cases would surge in rural areas during the new year.


The BBC has also found evidence of a considerable number of Covid-related deaths in China's rural regions, as the virus spread from big cities to more remote areas with older populations.


However the CDC said there had been no immediate spike following the festive period.


It's estimated that 226 million passenger trips were taken during the Lunar New Year festive season from 22-27 January - a 70% increase from last year when pandemic restrictions were still in place across many parts of China.


According to CDC data, Covid deaths halved in consecutive weeks in January. A total of 12,658 deaths were recorded 13-19 January, while 6,364 deaths were recorded the following week.


In December, Beijing abruptly ended draconian Covid curbs that had seen millions of its citizens locked down over the past three years.


That led to a severe spike in Covid infections and deaths, with some experts estimating a majority of the population contracted Covid in the weeks following.


A Peking University study said that as of 11 January, some 900 million people in China had been infected with the coronavirus, amid multiple reports of overcrowded hospitals and crematoria.


However, Chinese authorities initially maintained that there had only been seven deaths since the end of zero-Covid on 7 December, after narrowing its definition of what counts as a Covid death.


The National Health Commission later reported almost 60,000 Covid-related deaths between 8 December and 12 January, after it began including deaths from underlying conditions as well as respiratory failure caused by Covid.


China's official Covid data is believed to be vastly underreported, and authorities stopped releasing daily caseload reports last month.


Beijing has said it has been sharing Covid data in "a timely, open and transparent manner in accordance with the law."


Asia - BBC News