The COVID-2019 Thread

[Buckaroo Banzai]

They have no food.

I don't know how food delivery works in China, but most countries we use the phone to call gab food delivery service

[pickel]

I don't know how food delivery works in China, but most countries we use the phone to call gab food delivery service

Shanghai residents struggling to find food as lockdown enters 3rd week - National | Globalnews.ca

[harrybarracuda]

Shanghai happy time.

[misskit]

Expert Warns Covid Cases Post Songkran Could Triple

BANGKOK (NNT) - A medical expert has warned that the number of Covid-19 cases in Thailand will likely double or triple after the long Songkran holidays due to large crowds and parties at entertainment venues across the country.


Associate Professor Thira Woratanarat of Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Medicine wrote in an online post that many tourist attractions and entertainment venues have reportedly allowed their patrons or visitors to party and gather in large numbers to celebrate the Songkran festival.


During the long holidays, the government prohibits water splashing, power smearing, and alcohol consumption at all Songkran venues. However, a number of revelers, both Thai and foreign, have been caught flouting the order, prompting authorities to threaten businesses that allow violations to occur with hefty fines.


Dr. Thira observed that the number of daily Covid-19 cases increased two to threefold after the long Songkran holidays last year, and predicted a similar situation this year.


The Chulalongkorn professor attributed the increase in Covid cases mainly to a widespread belief that the current dominant Omicron variant is mild and controllable.


Dr. Thira warned that even after they recovered from the illness, Covid patients faced long-term effects on their health and daily lives, as they could develop other chronic diseases that impose a significant financial burden on themselves, their families, and the country in the long run.

Expert Warns Covid Cases Post Songkran Could Triple

[hallelujah]

Shanghai happy time.

Shanghai residents forced from homes clash with police over Covid policy | China | The Guardian

(video in the link)

[Shutree]

Shanghai happy time.

It isn't going well. There is a video in the BBC link, I can't cut and paste it.

Shanghai lockdown: How angry netizens test China'''s '''Great Firewall''' - BBC News

Also people dropping like flies in the Shanghai homes for the aged. China doesn't count them as dying because of Covid. They died with Covid yes but not of Covid. I am sure their families will be thrilled to know they didn't die from Covid.

Covid China: Elderly deaths contradict Shanghai figures - BBC News

Dozens of elderly patients at a hospital in Shanghai have died after contracting Covid-19, but official government figures claim no deaths in the city have been caused by the disease since 2020.

The BBC has spoken to a hospital manager and had access to correspondence sent to relatives of patients who've died during the Omicron outbreak that is sweeping through China's biggest city.

We've also had access to official documents that suggest at least 27 patients from a single hospital, who weren't vaccinated, have died from what it called "underlying health problems".

Shanghai is enforcing a mammoth lockdown as authorities try to contain a new wave of the virus. Most of the city's almost 25 million population have been ordered to stay inside for three weeks.

The BBC has previously reported evidence that authorities in Shanghai are struggling to deal with the outbreak. We spoke to a nurse and a health worker at Donghai Elderly Care Hospital who, between them, described desperate attempts to help dozens of elderly patients, some of whom have died.

We've contacted several other care homes or hospitals for the elderly since then, after social media postings suggested there was evidence of widespread infections among hundreds of patients in 12 other facilities here.

One relative of a patient at another care home in Shanghai has told us that doctors and caregivers working there had informed her that everyone in the facility had tested positive. It has capacity for around 300 patients.

[Shutree]

One problem amongst many with the Shanghai approach is that they insist on dragging away anyone who tests positive to a quarantine centre. Here they are confined in unsatisfactory conditions with many other Covid-positive people. No better way of creating some new, recombinant strains.

[harrybarracuda]

One problem amongst many with the Shanghai approach is that they insist on dragging away anyone who tests positive to a quarantine centre. Here they are confined in unsatisfactory conditions with many other Covid-positive people. No better way of creating some new, recombinant strains.

Plus they are upsetting people by kicking them out of their homes to use them as quarantine facilities.

Apparently Mr. Shithole is a bit upset that news of people standing up to his ineptitude is spreading quickly on social meeja.

[HermantheGerman]

Let's hope that China EXPLODES.

[misskit]

Next fortnight will determine adjustments of COVID-19 measures in Thailand

Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said today (Monday) that the ministry will closely monitor and assess the COVID-19 situation over the two weeks following the Songkran holiday, to determine whether the existing measures need to be adjusted.


He said that it is normal for people to get infected during the long Songkran holidays, because of the extensive travel and the increased chance of close contact with others, but he hopes that most will be safe if they were fully inoculated and the anticipated infection surge will not exceed the capacity of the health system.


Senior health experts predicted, before Songkran, that new infections after the holidays would surge to between 50,000 and 100,000 cases per day (in both RT-PCR and rapid antigen tests). They also expressed concern over elderly people and those suffering from underlying diseases, many of whom are not vaccinated or have not received booster shots.


Anutin confirmed that there are sufficient supplies of anti-viral medicines, especially Favipiravir, to meet the anticipated increase in demand, especially among people at high risk.


He insisted that those in home isolation do not need Favipiravir.


The minister said that the measures, to be proposed to the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) by the Public Health Ministry this Friday, will cover all aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in a way which will allow the economy and the people to move on without increasing the risk of mass infections.


Further easing of travel restrictions for tourists will also be proposed, he added.


As for the reclassification of COVID-19 as an endemic disease, Anutin said that no exact timeframe has been set, despite an initial plan of making the disease endemic by July, saying it will depend on the number of people who are fully inoculated and the readiness for the country to cope with the situation.


Meanwhile, the COVID-19 Information Centre reported 124 new deaths and 16,994 new confirmed infections today (Monday), compared to yesterday’s 128 fatalities and 17,775 infections.


The new infections include 16,918 locally-acquired cases and 76 among overseas arrivals. 205,514 patients are still being treated, including 2,123 cases of lung inflammation.


The cumulative death toll this year is 5,308. The death toll since the virus was first identified in Thailand is 27,006.

Next fortnight will determine adjustments of COVID-19 measures in Thailand | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

[misskit]

Thailand on Track to Declare Covid-19 Endemic July 1st

According to the Ministry of Public Health, Thailand will declare Covid-19 an endemic disease on July 1 despite predictions indicating an increase in fatalities, especially among seniors.

According to Dr. Chakkarat Pitayowonganon, the director of the epidemiology division of the Department of Disease Control (DDC), it will take two to four weeks for an indication of whether the worst-case scenario forecast by the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) will result in over 100,000 cases a day.


Currently, we are seeing a decline in the number of infections per day, from 30,000 RT-PCR tests per day before the Songkran festival to 16,000 per day, said Dr. Chakkarat.


Yet, the number of deaths and those requiring ventilators has increased. This number is expected to rise during the first week of May, according to the DDC.


The majority of Covid-19 Deaths are Among the Elderly


In the past seven days, the ministry reported an average of 107 deaths caused by Covid-19, with 90% of the deaths being elderly.


Dr. Chakkarat said that he was less concerned about the infection after the festival because the risk group was working people who developed fewer symptoms.


Some have already received one or two booster shots, but the problem is that they can spread the disease to elderly people in their families. “We could see a rise in deaths among the elderly, he said.

Covid-19 will be declared an endemic disease on July 1 if there are no other risks, such as new variants. In order to prepare for the endemic, he said the Health Department must convince two million senior citizens still without Covid-19 vaccinations to get their first shot.


Next wave of outbreaks


Researchers at the ministry found that the two-dose vaccination could reduce death rates up to 31 times if boosters are also administered to the elderly. The study also found that half of the population had enhanced immunity against Covid-19, and this should reach at least 70%.


A report from the health department indicates that small clusters have been reported in many places, and the next wave of outbreaks is expected to originate from gathering places like military camps, schools, and factories.


According to the health department, working from home is important during the first week after Songkran. It is recommended that people who work in the office take an ATK test before going to work and again mid-week.

Meanwhile, the Minister of Public Health department Anutin Charnvirakul is preparing a proposal on Friday for easing the measures.


More Studies Required


Additionally, Mr. Anutin responded to a proposal by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports to replace the requirement for RT-PCR tests with antigen tests for international arrivals.


Eventually, the move to declaring covid-19 endemic will take place, but a study is needed first. Mr. Anutin stated that the current number of infections is not much different from the previous few months.


However, infection rates must be measured in order for the country to be prepared to declare Covid-19 an endemic disease in July. Being prepared in all aspects is the most significant thing, according to Mr. Anutin.


“Getting infected with Covid-19 is a common occurrence due to face-to-face contact in everyday life,” he said.


“If we are all immunized, the prospect will not be quite as alarming.”

Please Wait... | Cloudflare

[misskit]

Thailand, along with 88 other countries, removed from US ‘Don’t Travel’ list

The United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday removed Thailand and 88 other countries from its “Do Not Travel” list.


Thailand is now categorised as Level 3, or a country with a “high” level of COVID-19. Travellers who are not fully vaccinated are still advised not to travel to Level 3 countries, but the warning does not apply to fully vaccinated visitors. Travellers with weakened immune systems are also urged to check with doctors before visiting.


Countries with a low level of COVID-19 are categorised as Level 1, while countries with a moderate level are classified as Level 2.


Currently, there are no countries categorised as Level 4, which will now be reserved for special circumstances, where countries see a dangerous spike in COVID-19 cases, a new COVID-19 variant or a collapse of their health care infrastructure.


Meanwhile, Thailand recorded 16,891 new COVID-19 infections today, with 129 more deaths, which is now the highest daily death toll this year, despite declining daily infections.


24,927 patients have recovered from the disease in the past 24 hours, while 197,349 are still receiving treatment, with 2,104 patients being treated for lung inflammation.


Thailand has welcomed more than 730,000 international arrivals since February as of Tuesday, with the infection rate among the arrivals gradually decreasing from 2.25% in February to 0.47% in April, according to the Disease Control Department.

Thailand, along with 88 other countries, removed from US 'Don't Travel' list | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

[harrybarracuda]

A 20% jump in new cases today. Looks like the Songkran surge has started.

[misskit]

Shanghai allows 4 million out of homes as virus rules ease

BEIJING (AP) — Shanghai allowed 4 million more people out of their homes Wednesday as anti-virus controls that shut down China’s biggest city eased, while the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast of Chinese economic growth and warned the global flow of industrial goods might be disrupted.


A total of almost 12 million people in the city of 25 million are allowed to go outdoors following the first round of easing last week, health official Wu Ganyu said at a news conference. Wu said the virus was “under effective control” for the first time in some parts of the city.


Under the latest changes, more than 4 million people are included in areas where the status shifted from closed to controlled, said Wu. He said some are not allowed to leave their neighborhoods and large gatherings are prohibited.


Meanwhile, the IMF reduced its forecast of Chinese growth this year to 4.4% from 4.8% due to the shutdowns of Shanghai and other industrial centers. That is down by almost half from last year’s 8.1% growth and below the ruling Communist Party’s 5.5% target.


China’s case numbers in its latest infection surge are relatively low, but the ruling party is enforcing a “zero-COVID” strategy that has shut down major cities to isolate every case.


On Wednesday, the government reported 19,927 new cases in China’s mainland, all but 2,761 of which had no symptoms. Shanghai accounted for 95% of the total, or 18,902 cases, of which 2,495 had symptoms.


The Shanghai city health agency reported seven people who had COVID-19 died Tuesday but said the deaths were due to cancer, heart disease and other ailments. All but two were over 60.


Shanghai shut down businesses and confined most of its population to their homes starting March 28 after a spike in infections. That led to complaints about lack of access to supplies of food and medicine. People in Shanghai who test positive but have no symptoms have been ordered into quarantine centers set up in exhibition halls and other public buildings.


Official data this week showed economic growth in the first three months of this year declined compared with the final quarter of 2021.


The lockdowns in China “will likely compound supply disruptions elsewhere” and might add to pressure for inflation to rise, the IMF said in a report.


The ruling party has promised tax refunds and other aid to businesses but is avoiding large-scale stimulus spending. Economists say that strategy will take longer to show results and Beijing might need to spend more or cut interest rates.


Chinese leaders have promised to try to reduce the human and economic cost of anti-disease controls by shifting to a “dynamic clearing” strategy that isolates neighborhoods and other smaller areas instead of whole cities. However, many areas appear to be enforcing more stringent controls after Shanghai officials were criticized for not acting aggressively enough.


Also Wednesday, the Ministry of Agriculture ordered local officials to avoid any measures that might interfere with spring planting by farmers who feed China’s 1.4 billion people. The order followed warnings that production of wheat and other crops might be disrupted, which would boost demand for imports and push up already high global prices.


The government reported 26,760 people who tested positive but had no symptoms were released Wednesday from observation. That included 25,411 in Shanghai, where some residents of quarantine centers have complained they are unsanitary.

Other industrial and trading centers including Changchun, Jilin and Shenyang in the northeast, the port of Tianjin east of Beijing and Shenzhen and Guangzhou in the south have closed businesses, imposed travel restrictions or told told residents to stay home.


Global automakers and other manufacturers reduced or stopped production because suppliers couldn’t deliver.


This week, Volkswagen AG announced its Changchun factory resumed production and the automaker was considering when its Shanghai facility would reopen. BMW AG said its factory in Shenyang reopened.


While some cities were easing controls, the the government of Harbin, a city of 5.3 million in the northeast, suspended bus and subway service on Wednesday and barred the public from moving between districts.

Shanghai allows 4 million out of homes as virus rules ease | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

[Neverna]

A 20% jump in new cases today. Looks like the Songkran surge has started.

I can see why you might think that [the figure for 20 April was a 20% jump on the previous two days, and there was a 20-25% reduction in new cases from 15-19 April] but with 20,455 new cases, there were actually fewer new cases on 20 April than every day bar three of the previous seven weeks before Songkran.

[harrybarracuda]

I can see why you might think that [the figure for 20 April was a 20% jump on the previous two days, and there was a 20-25% reduction in new cases from 15-19 April] but with 20,455 new cases, there were actually fewer new cases on 20 April than every day bar three of the previous seven weeks before Songkran.

I realise what the trend was before Songkran.

I was referring to the predicted spike as a result of Songkran.

Which happened.

Perhaps you misunderstood the meaning of "songkran surge"....

[Neverna]

I realise what the trend was before Songkran.

I was referring to the predicted spike as a result of Songkran.

Which happened.

Perhaps you misunderstood the meaning of "songkran surge"....

There is a "surge" every week in Thailand. The figures jump up and down like a kid on a space hopper. Every week. They peak at the weekend and are at their lowest on a Tuesday. Your Songkran "surge" was just the normal peak that we see weekly in Thailand's Covid new cases figures. The effect of Songkran was to actually shorten the weekly rise period to 2 days and lengthen the fall to 5 days (instead of being about half and half). The latest dip was at its lowest on the 19th April. It now appears to be back to its normal position in the weekly cycle, the lowest peak figure for Thailand for 2 months.

[harrybarracuda]

There is a "surge" every week in Thailand. The figures jump up and down like a kid on a space hopper. Every week. They peak at the weekend and are at their lowest on a Tuesday. Your Songkran "surge" was just the normal peak that we see weekly in Thailand's Covid new cases figures. The effect of Songkran was to actually shorten the weekly rise period to 2 days and lengthen the fall to 5 days (instead of being about half and half). The latest dip was at its lowest on the 19th April. It now appears to be back to its normal position in the weekly cycle, the lowest peak figure for
Thailand for 2 months.

I'm going to be nice to you and explain it with a picture. You will see that the trend was heavily downwards during Songkran.

You will also note that there is a spike starting 20th April, approximately 5 days after Songkran finished, exactly as predicted by the government, not because they're geniuses but because it was pretty fucking obvious that people migrating from areas of high infection during the holiday were likely to spread it.

This graph is from March 25-today. You see that spike at the end there, the last couple of days?

That's the "Songkran surge".

[Neverna]

I'm going to be nice to you and explain it with a picture. You will see that the trend was heavily downwards during Songkran.

You will also note that there is a spike starting 20th April, approximately 5 days after Songkran finished, exactly as predicted by the government, not because they're geniuses but because it was pretty fucking obvious that people migrating from areas of high infection during the holiday were likely to spread it.

This graph is from March 25-today. You see that spike at the end there, the last couple of days?

That's the "Songkran surge".

Let me show you a clearer picture. The last 60 days in Thailand. You can see a weekly peak and a weekly trough. I have marked Songkran in for you. The "surge" after Songkran is no different than the previous eight weekly increases in new cases, but with fewer cases than all the previous eight peaks. Predicting a new "surge" in Thailand is easy. They come every week. As yet, there has been no significant increase since Songkran.

[harrybarracuda]

Well you've done a pretty good job there of illustrating the rise after Songkran without actually understanding your own graph.

What you are observing is not a "weekly peak and trough" but a delay in reporting weekend cases.

So, once more, the downward trend seen from 15th-20th April ended when the expected case rise from Songkran travel arrived. It should peak soon enough and drop like a whore's drawers thereafter.

Perhaps what you are finding confusing is that it isn't matching peak infections around the turn of the month.

Then again, I never said it would.

[Neverna]

Well you've done a pretty good job there of illustrating the rise after Songkran without actually understanding your own graph.

What you are observing is not a "weekly peak and trough" but a delay in reporting weekend cases.

So, once more, the downward trend seen from 15th-20th April ended when the expected case rise from Songkran travel arrived. It should peak soon enough and drop like a whore's drawers thereafter.

Perhaps what you are finding confusing is that it isn't matching peak infections around the turn of the month.

Then again, I never said it would.

I never mentioned peak infections and I never mentioned "turn of the month", only the number of reported cases, which peak weekly and dip weekly. The rise after Songkran so far fits in with the normal weekly rise. Percentage wise, in the previous 8 weeks there were four peaks higher than the post Songkran peak and four peaks lower than the post Songkran peak. As I said, as yet, there has been no significant increase since Songkran.

Anyway, we can agree that after Songkran there was a dip in reported cases followed by a rise in reported cases.

Time will tell whether the rise becomes a significant increase due to people migrating from areas of high infection during the holiday and spreading it or it is just another weekly rise of similar proportions to previous weeks.

[harrybarracuda]

I never mentioned peak infections

I'm not going to waste more time explaining it to if you lie. You said:

Let me show you a clearer picture. The last 60 days in Thailand. You can see a weekly peak and a weekly trough.

There is no "weekly peak", it's just a lot of places are closed and don't report over weekends.

Anyway, we can agree that after Songkran there was a dip in reported cases followed by a rise in reported cases.

Time will tell whether the rise becomes a significant increase due to people migrating from areas of high infection during the holiday and spreading it or it is just another weekly rise of similar proportions to previous weeks.

Time already has told.

It's why a general decline in infections has started reversing in the average time it takes new infections to take hold - 4-5 days.

Hopefully it won't be significant and it won't last long.

[Neverna]

I'm not going to waste more time explaining it to if you lie.

Lie? Please show me where. Show me where I mentioned the word "infections".

There is no "weekly peak",

So, according to you, the highest figure each week is not a peak. Oh my. What do you call it? A spike?

it's just a lot of places are closed and don't report over weekends.

That may be true, and I have never said otherwise, but how does that explain that the highest figure each week occurs at the weekend? Not that it changes that there is both a peak and a dip each week.

Time already has told.

Today's figure is 1,708 less than yesterday's figure and 1,879 less than Thursday's figure. So 2 days rising followed so far by 2 days falling after peaking on Thursday in what appears to be a normal weekly fall and rise.

It's why a general decline in infections has started reversing in the average time it takes new infections to take hold - 4-5 days.

We are now 8 days after the last day of Songkran. There has not been a significant rise in reported cases in Thailand yet.

[misskit]

Push for vaccination of Thailand’s young ahead of new school term

With the start of the new school term on May 17th, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha stressed the need for precautionary measures today (Friday), to cope with on-site learning, with an emphasis placed on the inoculation of unvaccinated or partially vaccinated students.


With consent from the children and their parents, those aged 5-11 who have not yet been vaccinated should get their first doses through their schools, while those aged 12-17 are urged to get their second or their booster shots, either through their schools or appropriate medical facilities.


According to the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA), about 50% of 5- to 11-year-olds have received their first dose of vaccine, but only 5.8% have received their second.


The figures are, however, much higher among 12- to 17-year-olds, with 89.9% having received their first doses and 81.1% their second. 1.6% have also had their booster shots.


Children under 5 are not yet required to be inoculated and the prime minister asked their parents to take good care of them, noting that most infections among young children are linked to their parents.


28 children in this age group, who were not vaccinated, have died of coronavirus infection, while 17 unvaccinated children aged 6-18 have died.


The CCSA also agreed that 12- to 17-year-olds can be given half a dose for their booster with the Pfizer vaccine, at least five months after they received their second dose, to reduce the risk of side effects, according to CCSA Spokesperson Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin.

Push for vaccination of Thailand's young ahead of new school term | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

[misskit]

New Walk-in Vaccination Sites Now Available in Bangkok

BANGKOK (NNT) - People who traveled during the Songkran holidays and have since noticed suspicious symptoms are advised to immediately get tested for COVID-19 using an antigen test kit (ATK). ATKs are now available free-of-charge to people who exhibit symptoms or have had a high-risk exposure to a COVID patient. Meanwhile, six vaccination sites run by Bangkok City Hall are now providing walk-in services to eligible recipients.


The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) is inviting elderly people and those with chronic diseases to get vaccinated at any of the walk-in sites, including the Thai-Japan Youth Center, Thanya Park 3 mall and Robinson Lat Krabang department store. The three remaining sites can be found at Central Rama 3, Central Pinklao and Central Eastville shopping centers. Services are open to those who have yet to receive their recommended doses.


People returning from celebrating Songkran abroad who test positive via the ATK should first contact the health authority in their area. In Bangkok, the BMA can be reached by calling the district office hotline or contacting the BMA’s Facebook page. Alternatively, cases can be registered via the @BKKCOVID19CONNECT Line account. A call may also be made to the 1669 hotline of the National Institute for Emergency Medicine, followed by pressing 2. For those outside Bangkok, calls may be placed to the hotlines of provincial or district offices, or by contacting health volunteer units.


Another option available is to call the National Health Security Office’s 1330 hotline number. If the number cannot be reached, potentially due to lines being too busy, the NHSO website is also available to the public. Registrations can also be made via the NHSO’s official Line account @nhso.

New Walk-in Vaccination Sites Now Available in Bangkok