The COVID-2019 Thread

[NamPikToot]

Anyone know the Polish stats?

Try as i might i cannot get a north south split...worrying.

[Jack meoff]

Exactly, Very quite.

[Cujo]

I'm interested to know how many were smokers.

[Little Chuchok]

Let's calling it the Chinese Virus?

[Chittychangchang]

I'm interested to know how many were smokers.

Indeed, smokers,obese,elderly and male are the highest risk.

That's most on here fvcked then.

[Storekeeper]

[QUOTE=Chittychangchang;4087691] ... smokers,obese,elderly and male are the highest risk. [QUOTE]

Looks like I’m hosed if that sh1te finds me.

[jabir]

Anyone know the Polish stats?
They are sneaky bastards.
With some hot chicks.

Poland:
Confirmed: 6,356
Deaths: 208
Recovered: 375
Active: 5,773

JHU

[PlanK]

^

Polar bears or penguins?

[sabang]

With some hot chicks.

Feverishly hot.

[jabir]

There are many reasons why there could be such a disparity in population vs infections/death, from political expedience to outright lies, resources, competence, methodology etc. I was looking at Thailand vs UK, due to natural interest and similar populations, and even allowing for a high level of confusion by authorities cannot make sense of such differences.

JHU gives these latest figures:

Thailand (pop c70m)
Confirmed: 2,518
Deaths: 35
Recovered: 1,135
Active: 1,348

United Kingdom (pop c68m)
Confirmed: 78,991
Deaths: 9,875
Recovered: 344
Active: 68,772

Early days yet and these best figures under a disorganised wartime scenario will not account for many factors that include resources, reporting methods, victims at various stages of infection that have not been screened, those infected that are out of the system doing best they can at home with no help or recognition from their medical services, virus deaths certified as pneumonia or other than, whether for convenience due to inadequate pathology resources or otherwise, and on, which suggests that even after this thing is over and damage reports are all in and churned, local, regional and global tallies will likely never be known but significantly higher than whichever sets of figures various authorities decide to publish.

Can anyone explain how to compare, say, Thailand vs UK, without wild assumptions for no reason other than that seems to be the only way toward some plausible correlation?

At least one person I know believes glorious Thai leaders must be fibbing like never before, partly on account of strict measures being imposed locally and nationally, yet with only 35 deaths, which is less than the daily peacetime road count. Can't say I disagree, not for that reason but because that's what they do.

[Klondyke]

Anyone know the Polish stats?

They create a portion of the UK's stats...

[kmart]

There are many reasons why there could be such a disparity in population vs infections/death, from political expedience to outright lies, resources, competence, methodology etc. I was looking at Thailand vs UK, due to natural interest and similar populations, and even allowing for a high level of confusion by authorities cannot make sense of such differences.

JHU gives these latest figures:

Thailand (pop c70m)
Confirmed: 2,518
Deaths: 35
Recovered: 1,135
Active: 1,348

United Kingdom (pop c68m)
Confirmed: 78,991
Deaths: 9,875
Recovered: 344
Active: 68,772

Early days yet and these best figures under a disorganised wartime scenario will not account for many factors that include resources, reporting methods, victims at various stages of infection that have not been screened, those infected that are out of the system doing best they can at home with no help or recognition from their medical services, virus deaths certified as pneumonia or other than, whether for convenience due to inadequate pathology resources or otherwise, and on, which suggests that even after this thing is over and damage reports are all in and churned, local, regional and global tallies will likely never be known but significantly higher than whichever sets of figures various authorities decide to publish.

Can anyone explain how to compare, say, Thailand vs UK, without wild assumptions for no reason other than that seems to be the only way toward some plausible correlation?

At least one person I know believes glorious Thai leaders must be fibbing like never before, partly on account of strict measures being imposed locally and nationally, yet with only 35 deaths, which is less than the daily peacetime road count. Can't say I disagree, not for that reason but because that's what they do.

There seems to be a massive rush in Western countries to attribute natural deaths to Covid-19. People with late-stage cancer, even.

Death rates over similar periods in previous years are actually pretty similar. Coronavirus: how the current number of people dying in the UK compares to the past decade

The testing also seems skewed and arbitary, country by country.

[Bettyboo]

You can show the pattern of the virus spreading (because we have a lot of data on that).
You can show the ability of healthcare services to deal with the spread (because places like Italy and Spain have a lot of data on that).
You can show different approaches to dealing with the virus on a national level (because we have a lot of data on that).
You can consider personal testimony of lifelong healthcare professionals (because we have a lot of them).
You can analyse some of the testing methods, country by country (because many countries are fully transparent with that information).

There is now a lot of information about the Wuhan virus.

It's also true that there isn't a single approach to many of the figures being presented, so they are confusing, partially accurate, contextualised, decontextualised, etc. That's one reason why sticking with one consistent method, as below, while not the best method, is at least a systematic and consistent method - for better or worse...

[harrybarracuda]

There seems to be a massive rush in Western countries to attribute natural deaths to Covid-19. People with late-stage cancer, even.

Death rates over similar periods in previous years are actually pretty similar. Coronavirus: how the current number of people dying in the UK compares to the past decade

Something I noted from a report earlier. A guest on the BBC stated exactly that, that a lot of the people that die due to this disease may well have died this year anyway.

[Chico]

There seems to be a massive rush in Western countries to attribute natural deaths

Just how many is anyone's guess.

[harrybarracuda]

Reported new cases yesterday dropped to 80,000 globally.

[Bettyboo]

Something I noted from a report earlier. A guest on the BBC stated exactly that, that a lot of the people that die due to this disease may well have died this year anyway.

In fact, most people who die from this virus would have died eventually (to take a risk, one might suggest all...). That argument is a slippery slope.

[Bettyboo]

The last minute or two offer some optimism that the US is getting over the virus/has a route to get over it - let's hope so.

[Latindancer]

^^ So next year we may have a fall in the number of deaths from natural causes ?

[jabir]

Apparently this pic has been doing the rounds for a while, fine job well done, though he could do nothing about the piles of poo by the time his neighbour returned.

[harrybarracuda]

In fact, most people who die from this virus would have died eventually (to take a risk, one might suggest all...). That argument is a slippery slope.

No it isn't. Don't be silly.

[harrybarracuda]

^^ So next year we may have a fall in the number of deaths from natural causes ?

That depends on whether or not you call Covid-19 "natural causes".

Obviously it is killing some that would otherwise survive, that's what is mystifying scientists.

[Bettyboo]

No it isn't. Don't be silly.

Latindancer pointed out the logic very simply; even a Gooner should be able to follow it. That 'argument' is a slippery slope where disinformation and nonsense is born...

[harrybarracuda]

It seems the chinkies want to censor research that dares to suggest their bat munching habits may have contributed to the pandemic.

Stoopid chinkies.

China is cracking down on publication of academic research about the origins of the novel coronavirus, in what is likely to be part of a wider attempt to control the narrative surrounding the pandemic, documents published online by Chinese universities appear to show.

Two websites for leading Chinese universities appear to have recently published and then removed pages that reference a new policy requiring academic papers dealing with Covid-19 to undergo extra vetting before they are submitted for publication.

Research on the origins of the virus is particularly sensitive and subject to checks by government officials, the notices posted on the websites of Fudan University and the China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) said. Both the deleted pages were accessed from online caches.

China clamping down on coronavirus research, deleted pages suggest | World news | The Guardian

<snip>

Kevin Carrico, a senior research fellow of Chinese studies at Monash University, said he was not aware of any specific recent change to rules for academic research in China in connection to Covid-19, but the documents were generally consistent with efforts by China to control the narrative of the pandemic.
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“They are seeking to transform it from a massive disaster to one where the government did everything right and gave the rest of the world time to prepare,” Carrico said.

Carrico said those efforts had been evident in communications ranging from government pronouncements at the highest level to public sentiment on social media.

“There is a desire to a degree to deny realities that are staring at us in the face … that this is a massive pandemic that originated in a place that the Chinese government really should have cleaned up after Sars,” he said.

[harrybarracuda]

Latindancer pointed out the logic very simply; even a Gooner should be able to follow it. That 'argument' is a slippery slope where disinformation and nonsense is born...

No it isn't, when it is properly qualified. You're the chump that decided to take "this year" and change it to "eventually".

Off you go with your silly straw man now.