The COVID-2019 Thread

[beachbound]

I haven’t read through all the posts, so excuse me if this has already been reported, but my Mrs. says there are reports coming out of Thailand that they are closing their borders at the end of the month. There’s a story circulating about a Muay Thai tournament a few weeks was held in Thailand, that attracted 500 Westerners. The entire group contracted the virus, and they have only located five of them.

Has anyone heard this story?

[Klondyke]

The man who supposedly foresaw everything
A novel by US author Dean Koontz, published 40 years ago, has a "Wuhan 400 virus". Can this be a coincidence?


He is said to write at least ten hours a day: American author Dean Koontz, 74, Photograph: Getty Images

Dean Koontz is not an author, he is a human writing factory. The 74-year-old American has written more than a hundred novels, mostly thrillers, but also fantasy, mystery, horror, science fiction. Or a combination of them. He has sold more than 500 million copies, dozens of his works have been filmed, many of which were at the top of the bestseller lists.

In his wildest times, Koontz wrote up to eight books a year and used about ten different pseudonyms. His publishers had advised him to do so, he said in an interview. In this way, he can cover each genre with his own pseudonym and avoid disappointing the expectations of readers. There are also some erotic novels that have appeared under one of Koontz's pseudonyms and whose authorship he denies today. It would not surprise you if he himself no longer knew whether he had actually written everything attributed to him.

From this Amazon of entertainment literature, a novel from 1981 has now swept back into the bestseller lists. He owes this to the coronavirus. The work is called "The Eyes of Darkness". In it, a Chinese scientist named Li Chen comes across to the Americans and tells them which is the chinese's deadliest weapon: "They call it Wuhan-400 because it was developed in their RDNA laboratories outside the city of Wuhan. This is the 400th strand of artificially created microorganisms developed in this research centre. Wuhan-400 is a perfect weapon."

An opponent of the welfare state

The sentences have electrified conspiracy theorists around the world. Did Koontz know anything? Or guessed? The advocates of reason list the reasons why one should not believe in it. For almost every historical event, a fictional narrative can be unravelled, which in hindsight somehow prophetically appears. Apart from the hit with Wuhan, the virus is very different from the coronavirus in the US writer: it kills all those infected within a few hours. But the fearfulness, which is also reflected in a huge increase in interest in films, computer games and other novels in which a pandemic occurs, cannot be appeased with such arguments. Nor the need to create unforeseen and seemingly uncontrollable things as part of an evil, but at least to interpret rational plans.

Koontz says he was beaten as a child by his constantly drunk father. He was an English teacher, worked at a state foundation for poor children, and found that the supposedly vulnerable were violent and that the state funds were leaking into dark channels. Since then, the man with the unmistakably transplanted hair has been an opponent of the welfare state. His website says he writes at least ten hours a day. Perhaps stress and time has led him to do the smartest thing amid all the excitement surrounding his soon-to-be 40-year-old book: to remain silent.



Der Mann, der angeblich alles vorhersah - News Kultur: Bucher - tagesanzeiger.ch

[raycarey]

essentially this article is a prediction of what's to come in the weeks and months ahead, but of course no one really knows what's next. however, her portrayal of how this ends seems plausible.

The Crisis Could Last 18 Months. Be Prepared.
The shutdowns happened remarkably quickly, but the process of resuming our lives will be far more muddled.


Juliette Kayyem
Former Department of Homeland Security official


Just as seasickness abates once you can see the shore, the disruptions that the country is now experiencing would be easier to manage if we knew they would end soon. The community-isolation effort happened remarkably fast—within days, whole communities all but closed down, and earlier this week the federal government finally recommended the same. On Thursday, Governor Gavin Newsom ordered the entire state of California to stay home “until further notice.” But the way the crisis ends will be far more muddled. There isn’t going to be one all-clear signal—and certainly not one anytime soon.


As the days and weeks in isolation go by, and the shock of What just happened? turns to Family time is overrated, people will become more insistent on knowing two things: When will the pandemic end? And when can we go back to normal? Those questions have different answers, and the answer to the latter—far from being a purely scientific decision—will be guided by ice-cold moral and political calculations that nobody wants to discuss out loud.


From a public-health standard, the pandemic will not end for another 18 months. The only complete resolution—a vaccine—could be at least that far away. The development of a successful vaccine is both difficult and not sufficient. It must also be manufactured, distributed, and administered to a nation’s citizens. Until that happens, as recent reports from the U.S. government and from scientists at London’s Imperial College point out, we will be vulnerable to subsequent waves of the new coronavirus even if the current wave happens to ebb.


None of which means that people now hunkered down at home will keep doing so through late 2021. The economic consequences of an indefinite lockdown are unsustainable. And at a certain point, the emotional tensions that staying home imposes upon families, as spouses grate upon each other and children get bored and fall behind on their schoolwork, become a danger to domestic harmony, and maybe even to everyone’s sanity.


At the moment, we are just playing for time. Whether social distancing is working will be clearer in a month than it is now, but even then we will not know to a moral certainty when adults can safely go back to the office and children can go back to school. Which is partly why employers, university officials, and others have given such widely varying time frames for how long they are shutting things down—two weeks, until the end of April, until the end of the academic year, until sometime later.


Two weeks, for what it’s worth, is just a way of breaking the bad news easy. If anything, we are likely to see more draconian distancing measures if the data start to show success. The goal of social distancing, as everyone now knows, is to “flatten the curve”—to keep the number of COVID-19 cases from spiking faster than the medical system can mobilize to handle them. But a flatter curve is longer; a failure of social distancing would mean the peak comes sooner—at a horrifying cost of lives—but also that Americans are back outside sooner.


If entirely suppressing the coronavirus is a public-health ideal, crisis management is the homeland-security standard. The goal is to minimize risk, maximize defenses, and maintain social cohesion at the same time. In a society that must start moving again at some point, emergency-management planners looking at the metrics may seem heartless.


In the military, commanders must make calculations about acceptable losses; the benefits of a mission have to be weighed against the certainty that some soldiers will be lost. We don’t have such language in the homeland-security world, but trade-offs are still inevitable. The wrenching decision to open up again—to accept more exposures to the coronavirus as the price of an earlier economic revival—is simply a judgment call. It is too late to prevent tragedy entirely; our goal is to manage it within the limits of scientific progress and public tolerance.


In the weeks to come, we should see a surge not only of patients, but also of supplies. The federal government has two main jobs right now: to get testing kits distributed nationwide, and to quicken the flow of money and expertise to support state and local efforts and expand the capacity of the health system. Go big or go home—the classic warning against half measures—is an old emergency-management maxim, and current circumstances give it an ironic twist: Because Americans are at home, the federal government needs to go big.


Managing the pandemic well doesn’t mean eradication; it means that our ability to mitigate how many people die—our ability to isolate those sick, test their contacts, care for them in available intensive-care beds with available respirators—is working. Social distancing, currently our primary tool to manage the burdens on our health-care system, will eventually give way to efforts to quickly identify those infected, before they can expose others, and also to treat those already exposed. Even before a vaccine is available, the United States will fall into a steady-state suppression effort—which is to say, life will go on, even as public-health officials play whack-a-mole with individual outbreaks.


So, that’s the plan. Sometime between now and when a vaccine becomes available, restaurants and schools and offices will reopen. It won’t happen all at once, as if by official decree, but as individual households and workplaces conclude one by one that they’ve had enough—and that the surge in testing kits, intensive-care beds, and other resources is finally sufficient to meet the need. That won’t take a year and a half. But I expect to be in these sweats for at least another month—and I’m planning for two.

The Crisis Could Last 18 Months. Be Prepared. - The Atlantic

[armstrong]

Well that story is absolute bollocks. How were they confirmed with the virus if they only contacted 5 of them?

[Klondyke]

Anger over 'unacceptable' crowds at Bondi Beach amid coronavirus pandemic

Swiss in Miami: “It can't be”

The Swiss Stephan K. * (52) witnessed the situation on site. "I could not believe my eyes. Thousands of people were on the streets, restaurants, bars, everything was open, »says the Bernese who flew to Miami to play golf with friends. "In Switzerland, we make a huge effort to protect ourselves from the virus, and in the United States, people don't care."

Party trotz Corona-Krise: Spring Break in Florida vorbei - Blick

[beachbound]

Well that story is absolute bollocks. How were they confirmed with the virus if they only contacted 5 of them?

Kickboxing match in Bangkok leads to spike in infections - ABC News

not sure where they came up with the numbers, but this is the story.

This is NOT a joke, for those that have been in close contact with me the last few days please take precautions. I have the Covid-19 virus#covid 19," said the March 13 message from Matthew Deane Chanthavanij, next to a video of him wearing a black surgical mask.
Some people initially derided his post as a publicity stunt, bogus information for which he could be criminally prosecuted. In fact, it exposed a second, potentially more dangerous cluster: the Lumpini Stadium boxing crowd.
Matthew Deane, as he is usually called, is an actor, model, singer and athlete. The Australian-born 41-year-old is also a serious devotee of Muay Thai, and even owns a boxing gym.
He was a master of ceremonies at the Lumpini Stadium match, stepping into the ring to interview boxers and promoters and hand out prizes to winners of a raffle.
The air-conditioned hall was hosting the first big Muay Thai event of the season. Eleven bouts started at 6 p.m and ended just after midnight. The crowd of about 5,000 roared every time punches and kicks were exchanged.
“We were squeezed against each other. Normally the place isn't that crowded,” said Suwan Jitpinit, who traveled from his hometown in Sukhothai province, a 420-kilometer (260-mile) drive.
“At other regular events, there would be about 1,500 to 2,000 people in the stadium but because this was a special match, there were many more people,” recalled the 37-year-old boxing writer. He stayed in Bangkok for a match at another stadium before going home on March 10.
On the drive home, he began to feel feverish and was shivering so much he had to ask someone else to drive. When he arrived that evening, he went to a local hospital and was diagnosed with tonsillitis. Not feeling any better three days later, he sought help from a bigger hospital in nearby Phitsanulok.
After hearing the news about Matthew Deane, he asked to be tested for coronavirus. The result came back positive. His wife was infected too, and their village in Sukhothai is now under quarantine.
Ordinary boxing fans from other provinces, both near Bangkok and in the north, the northeast and the south, have also tested positive for the disease.

[jabir]

I watched a couple of documentaries about the Spanish flu recently, and the similarities in early response by major govs between that and corona is from scary to infuriating, esp given the number of epi/pandemics since.

Also worth a mention, Bill Gates has for years been of the opinion that there's some nasty stuff coming, not if but when, and that the world would be unprepared for it.

Someone earlier mentioned that Spanish flu was brought over by Chinese workers toward the end of WWI, and though no firm evidence either way it's more likely to have triggered in the USA, brought over and rapidly spread by troops, but tagged as Spanish because Spain being neutral their press were free to publish.

[harrybarracuda]

There's the little fucker.

[cyrille]

BANGKOK -- Kickboxing aficionados came from all over Thailand to attend a major Muay Thai match at Bangkok's indoor Lumpini Stadium on March 6. More than 100 went home unknowingly carrying the coronavirus.


The wayward boxing fans led an inevitable rise in infections this month that forced the government to abandon its hesitant approach to combating COVID-19 that failed to inspire public confidence.


As of Saturday, confirmed cases from three boxing stadiums in Bangkok totaled 104, just over a quarter of the national toll of 411. An actor, a major-general, a politician, a boxing trainer and a slew of ordinary fans are among the coronavirus cases from the March 6 event.

It's feared hundreds more in all corners of the country could be viral time bombs. Health officials take the threat seriously.


"The more people who report themselves, the easier it is for us to track down others with the virus before it's too late." said Dr. Thaveesin Visanuyothin, a spokesman for the Public Health Ministry.


But even as Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha this past week announced measures to fight the spread of COVID-19 — including postponing a major three-day holiday, shutting down schools and allowing provincial governors to close any gathering spaces — he insisted the country was not going into shutdown.

He told his countrymen the crisis had not yet reached Phase 3, an epidemic involving significant domestic transmission of the virus that would trigger more radical restrictions. How and when that would be determined is hard to judge, especially because Prayuth's government has been criticized for a lack of transparency and consistency in releasing information.


Even a crackdown implemented this week on arrivals sends a mixed message. Instead of banning international flights, as several nations have done, foreign visitors must have health certificates affirming they are free of the virus. The requirement is impractical, because in many if not most countries, it's hard to even get tested without showing symptoms of the illness.

Any illusion that Thailand would somehow avoid a spike in infections was dispelled this month with the discovery of a cluster case from a single discrete source. The infected people were a group of millennials who were reported to have been partying at an upmarket Bangkok nightspot with a visitor from Hong Kong. Health authorities scolded the partygoers for sharing drinks and cigarettes.


Just days later, a local celebrity in Muay Thai circles posted a message on his Instagram account. Muay Thai is the national sport, with a devoted fan base nationwide spanning social classes.

"This is NOT a joke, for those that have been in close contact with me the last few days please take precautions. I have the Covid-19 virus#covid 19," said the March 13 message from Matthew Deane Chanthavanij, next to a video of him wearing a black surgical mask.


Some people initially derided his post as a publicity stunt, bogus information for which he could be criminally prosecuted. In fact, it exposed a second, potentially more dangerous cluster: the Lumpini Stadium boxing crowd.

Matthew Deane, as he is usually called, is an actor, model, singer and athlete. The Australian-born 41-year-old is also a serious devotee of Muay Thai, and even owns a boxing gym.


He was a master of ceremonies at the Lumpini Stadium match, stepping into the ring to interview boxers and promoters and hand out prizes to winners of a raffle.


The air-conditioned hall was hosting the first big Muay Thai event of the season. Eleven bouts started at 6 p.m and ended just after midnight. The crowd of about 5,000 roared every time punches and kicks were exchanged.


“We were squeezed against each other. Normally the place isn't that crowded,” said Suwan Jitpinit, who traveled from his hometown in Sukhothai province, a 420-kilometer (260-mile) drive.


“At other regular events, there would be about 1,500 to 2,000 people in the stadium but because this was a special match, there were many more people,” recalled the 37-year-old boxing writer. He stayed in Bangkok for a match at another stadium before going home on March 10.


On the drive home, he began to feel feverish and was shivering so much he had to ask someone else to drive. When he arrived that evening, he went to a local hospital and was diagnosed with tonsillitis. Not feeling any better three days later, he sought help from a bigger hospital in nearby Phitsanulok.

After hearing the news about Matthew Deane, he asked to be tested for coronavirus. The result came back positive. His wife was infected too, and their village in Sukhothai is now under quarantine.


Ordinary boxing fans from other provinces, both near Bangkok and in the north, the northeast and the south, have also tested positive for the disease.


Among them: a local politician who is especially diligent in attending to his constituents in a province east of Bangkok.


According to reports in the Thai media, between the time he attended the Lumpini match and when he tested positive, Kitti Paopiamsap, head of the Chachoengsao provincial administration organization, attended six weddings, six funerals, three community meetings (two of them with the elderly), three Buddhist ordinations, three fairs and at least four other public meetings.

"It is sad that the boxing event has aggravated the situation," said Pinit Polkhan, who shared announcing duties with Matthew Deane and like him caught the virus. "Certainly, the boxing industry is taking a hard hit, and the whole country as well."

[harrybarracuda]

22,000 new cases so far today, and Italy has 6,500 of them, that despite it having had more deaths than China and Iran put together.

[harrybarracuda]

Over 26,000 new cases today.


And the clock doesn't reset until 00:00GMT.


Meanwhile, Darwin keeps working...

Kentucky governor Andy Beshear urged last week for church services to be canceled statewide amid the coronavirus pandemic. A church in Murray went against the suggestion, and a visitor at Sunday’s service has now tested positive for COVID-19.


University Church of Christ in Murray advised its congregation, which included around 150 people Sunday, to self-quarantine for the next 10 days, it said in a since-deleted Facebook post. The person diagnosed with coronavirus is not from Murray, the church said.

https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article241366951.html

[Chittychangchang]

Sobering thought..

[Switch]

Well that story is absolute bollocks. How were they confirmed with the virus if they only contacted 5 of them?

It’s a problem only for the USA, because their system is ill equipped to deal with it, and they have to get rid of the idiot Trump first. Of course it will last longer, and any potential solution will not be sustainable, because the majority of the population has such a short attention span.
The article, posted by an American and written by an American, explains how gullible and insular they really are as a nation. They really believe that the US is the centre of the universe, because for them, it is. It’s all they know.

[Switch]

BANGKOK -- Kickboxing aficionados came from all over Thailand to attend a major Muay Thai match at Bangkok's indoor Lumpini Stadium on March 6. More than 100 went home unknowingly carrying the coronavirus.


The wayward boxing fans led an inevitable rise in infections this month that forced the government to abandon its hesitant approach to combating COVID-19 that failed to inspire public confidence.

A good find Cyrille. It’s each to blame Prayuth, but the truth is exemplified by the article. Any Thai government would have reacted badly to this kind of clusterfuck. The xenophobia inherent in Thai society would not allow them to react any other way.
Not sure who is worse, the USA or Thailand.

[PlanK]

[headhunter]

friday 627 died in italy alone [one day] the bigest recorded no.WHY ITALY?is there something going on that is being HUSHED UP,spain UP, france UP.

[bowie]

But think about it

you tube soylent green

[parryhandy]

Everybody needs to listen to this

[panama hat]

WHY ITALY?

Italy has the world's second oldest population, after Japan, and the north is where many retire to . . . plus - Italy

[bowie]

The Swiss Stephan K. * (52) witnessed the situation on site. "I could not believe my eyes. Thousands of people were on the streets, restaurants, bars, everything was open, »says the Bernese who flew to Miami to play golf with friends. "In Switzerland, we make a huge effort to protect ourselves from the virus, and in the United States, people don't care."

And, yet, we have a 52 year old swiss gent who flew to Miami to play golf - berating the young spring breakers who (erroneously - based on the news) believe its a serious problem for old persons.

Remember - all the press about the hazards to the 60-80+ year old population when this bug first hit the streets.

[hallelujah]

Lorenzo Sanz, ex-president of Real Madrid, succumbs to Coronavirus at 76.

Former Real Madrid president Lorenzo Sanz dies of coronavirus | Football | The Guardian

[naptownmike]

What are the odds of having the worst health crisis in 100 years and then being stuck with the worst president in history.

Those press conferences are hard to watch.

[headhunter]

Italy has the world's second oldest population, after Japan, and the north is where many retire to . . . plus - Italy

there could be a few farangs sweating in patts.right now.
as for me NO HUMANS WELCOME.
DOGS ONLY.

[Chittychangchang]

800 died in Italy today.



Not looking good for the UK.

[Troy]

friday 627 died in italy alone [one day] the bigest recorded no.WHY ITALY?is there something going on that is being HUSHED UP,spain UP, france UP.

The rate in Italy, France, Germany, UK is about the same. They are just staggered. The UK is roughly two weeks behind.

German companies started putting controls in place on 9 March with anyone who took holidays to South Tyrol put on 14 day isolation. It wasn't applied nationwide though and beer gardens and markets stayed open. Lockdown on 16 March should see a drop in cases by April.

The UK will be like Italy on a bad day come 7 April unless people sit up and take note.