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    NASA – June 2022 tied with June 2020 to be the warmest June recorded


    NASA










    ____________

    Extreme weather



    Experts worried that extreme heatwaves in Europe happening quicker than expected, suggesting climate crisis worse than feared

    Climate scientists have expressed shock at the UK’s smashed temperature record, with the heat soaring above 40C for the first time ever on Tuesday.

    Researchers are also increasingly concerned that extreme heatwaves in Europe are occurring more rapidly than models had suggested, indicating that the climate crisis on the European continent may be even worse than feared.

    Temperature records are usually broken by fractions of a degree, but the 40.2C recorded at Heathrow is 1.5C higher than the previous record of 38.7C recorded in 2019 in Cambridge.

    About 2,000 heatwave deaths a year have occurred on average in the UK over the last decade, as well as widespread disruption to work, schools and travel. Scientists said the latest record showed that slashing carbon emissions, and rapidly upgrading the UK’s overheating homes and buildings, was more urgent than ever.

    Prof Peter Stott, at the Met Office, said: “I find it shocking that we’ve reached these temperatures today in 2022, smashing the previous record set only in 2019.”

    His research in 2020 showed there was a chance of the UK hitting 40C due to global heating. “But we calculated it as a relatively low likelihood – a roughly one in a hundred chance – albeit that those chances are increasing rapidly all the time with continued warming,” Stott told the Guardian. “Breaking 40C today is very worrying; we’ve never seen anything like this in the UK and it could be that the risk of such extreme heat is even greater than our previous calculation showed.”

    The risk was certainly rising rapidly, said Dr Nikos Christidis, who also worked on the 2020 study: “The main message is that this event is becoming more and more common and by the end of the century it will no longer be an extreme.”

    The role of human-caused global heating appears clear, as the scientists estimated that chances of breaking 40C in the UK without it would be less than 0.1%. Dr Friederike Otto at Imperial College London said 40C “would have been extremely unlikely or virtually impossible without human-caused climate change”.

    Otto added: “While still rare, 40C is now a reality of British summers.”

    “Climate change is driving this heatwave, just as it is driving every heatwave now,” she said. “Greenhouse gas emissions, from burning fossil fuels like coal, gas and oil, are making heatwaves hotter, longer-lasting and more frequent.”

    Prof Hannah Cloke, at the University of Reading, said: “The all-time temperature record for the UK has not just been broken, it has been absolutely obliterated.

    “Even as a climate scientist who studies this stuff, this is scary.”

    “I wasn’t expecting to see this [40C] in my career,” said Prof Stephen Belcher, at the Met Office.

    Climate scientists are concerned that the rise in extreme weather may be occurring faster than expected. “In Europe, climate models do underestimate the change in heat extremes compared to observations,” said Otto. “There are still problems with climate models that we don’t quite understand yet.”

    Prof Michael Mann, at Pennsylvania State University in the US, said his research suggested that climate models failed to adequately link many extreme summer weather events to climate change.

    “This is because of processes that are not well-captured in the models but are playing out in the real world – eg, the impact of warming on the behaviour of the summer jet stream that gives us many of the extreme heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires we’re seeing,” he said. “It suggests that models, if anything, are underestimating the potential for future increases in various types of extreme events.”

    There were explanations for “crazy heat” extremes happening after only just over 1C of global average warming, said Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. First, land is heating much faster than the oceans, which cover 70% of the planet and dominate the global average.

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    Second, changing weather patterns could deliver greater extremes in temperature, he said. “Europe is a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three to four times faster compared with the rest of the northern midlatitudes. The reason? Changes in the jet stream.” Third, the slowdown of a key Atlantic Ocean current tends to increase summer heat and drought in Europe.

    While 40C broke a benchmark in the UK, researchers in continental Europe, which is also in the grip of the heatwave, are now considering 50C. “In France, one cannot rule out 50C being reached in the coming decades,” said Prof Robert Vautard, at Sorbonne University. “For France, Spain, and many other countries, the current historical record is within 5 degrees of 50C, and we know such a jump is possible.”

    Climate action remained vital, said Otto: “Whether [40C in the UK] will become a very common occurrence or remains relatively infrequent is in our hands and is determined by when and at what global mean temperature we reach net zero. Heatwaves will keep getting worse until greenhouse gas emissions are halted.”

    “It is also in our hands whether every future heatwave will continue to be extremely deadly and disruptive,” she said. “We have the agency to make us less vulnerable and redesign our cities, homes, schools and hospitals and educate us on how to keep safe.”

    ___________


    • Fires scorch France and Spain as temperature-related deaths soar in European heat wave


    Firefighters battled wildfires raging out of control in Spain and France, including one whose flames reached two popular Atlantic beaches on Sunday, as Europe wilted under an unusually extreme heat wave.

    So far, there have been no fire-related deaths in France or Spain, but authorities in Madrid have blamed soaring temperatures for hundreds of deaths. And two huge blazes, which have consumed pine forests for six days in southwestern France, have forced the evacuation of some 16,200 people.

    In dramatic images posted online, a wall of black smoke could be seen rolling toward the Atlantic on a stretch of Bordeaux's coast that is prized by surfers from around the world. Flames raced across trees abutting a broad sandy beach, as planes flew low to suck up water from the ocean. Elsewhere, smoke blanketed the skyline above a mass of singed trees in images shared by French firefighters.

    In Spain, firefighters supported by military brigades tried to stamp out over 30 fires consuming forests spread across the country. Spain's National Defense Department said that "the majority" of its fire-fighting aircraft have been deployed to reach the blazes, many of which are in rugged, hilly terrain that is difficult for ground crews to access.

    Fire season has hit parts of Europe earlier than usual this year after a dry, hot spring that the European Union has attributed to climate change. Some countries are also experiencing extended droughts, while many are sweltering in heat waves.

    In Spain's second heat wave of the summer, many areas have repeatedly seen peaks of 43 degrees Celsius (109 degrees Fahrenheit). According to Spain's Carlos III Institute, which records temperature-related fatalities daily, 360 deaths were attributed to high temperatures from July 10 to 15. That was compared with 27 temperature-related deaths the previous six days.

    Almost all of Spain was under alert for high temperatures for another day Sunday, while there were heat wave warnings for about half of France, where scorching temperatures were expected to climb higher on Monday. The French government has stepped up efforts to protect people in nursing homes, the homeless and other vulnerable populations after a vicious heat wave and poor planning led to nearly 15,000 deaths in 2003, especially among the elderly.

    The fire in La Teste-de-Buch has forced more than 10,000 people to flee at a time when many typically flock to the nearby Atlantic coast area for vacation. French authorities have closed several spots to the public along that coast because of the fire, including La Lagune and Petit Nice beaches that the fire reached on Sunday, and Europe's tallest sand dune, the Dune du Pilat.

    The Gironde regional government said Sunday afternoon that "the situation remains very unfavorable" due to gusting winds that helped fan more flare-ups overnight.

    A second fire near the town of Landiras has forced authorities to evacuate 4,100 people this week. Authorities said that one flank has been brought under control by the dumping of white sand along a two-kilometer (1.2-mile) stretch. Another flank, however, remains unchecked.

    People who were forced to flee shared worries about their abandoned homes with local media, and local officials organized special trips for some to fetch pets they had left behind in the rush to get to safety.

    Overall, more than 100 square kilometers (40 square miles) of land have burned in the two fires.

    Emergency officials warned that high temperatures and winds Sunday and Monday would complicate efforts to stop the fires from spreading further.

    "We have to stay very prudent and very humble, because the day will be very hot. We have no favorable weather window," regional fire official Eric Florensan said Sunday on radio France-Bleu.

    Some of the most worrisome blazes in Spain are concentrated in the western regions of Extremadura and Castilla y León. Images of plumes of dark smoke rising above wooded hills that have been baked under the sun have become common in several scarcely populated rural areas.

    Drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula have made it particularly susceptible to wildfires. Since last October, Spain has accumulated 25% less rainfall than is considered normal — and some areas have received as much as 75% less than normal, the National Security Department said.

    While some fires have been caused by lightning strikes and others the result of human negligence, a blaze that broke out in a nature reserve in Extremadura called La Garganta de los Infiernos, or "The Throat of Hell," was suspected to be the result of arson, regional authorities said.

    Firefighters have been unable to stop the advance of a fire that broke out near the city of Cáceres that is threatening the Monfragüe National Park and has kept 200 people from returning to their homes. Another fire in southern Spain near the city of Malaga has forced the evacuation of a further 2,500 people.

    The office of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced that he will travel to Extremadura to visit some of the hardest-hit areas on Monday.

    Hungary, Croatia and the Greek island of Crete have also fought wildfires this week, as have Morocco and California. Italy is in the midst of an early summer heat wave, coupled with the worst drought in its north in 70 years — conditions linked to a recent disaster, when a huge chunk of the Marmolada glacier broke loose, killing several hikers.

    Scorching temperatures have even reached northern Europe. An annual four-day walking event in the Dutch city of Nijmegen announced Sunday that it would cancel the first day, scheduled for Tuesday, when temperatures are expected to peak at around 39 degrees Celsius (102 degrees Fahrenheit).

    Britain's weather agency has issued its first-ever "red warning" of extreme heat for Monday and Tuesday, when temperatures in southern England may reach 40 C (104 F) for the first time.

    College of Paramedics Chief Executive Tracy Nicholls warned Sunday that the "ferocious heat" could "ultimately, end in people's deaths." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/europe-...ain-wildfires/

    ____________


    • Heat wave kills more than 1,700 people in Spain and Portugal


    Over 1,700 people have died in Spain and Portugal from heat-related causes over the past week as an unprecedented heat wave moves through Europe.

    Driving the news: The ongoing heat wave could last a total of several weeks and has been accompanied by wildfires in France, Spain and Portugal, forcing thousands of people to flee their homes.


    • Severe heat waves are of particular concern in Europe as they can often prove extremely deadly due to air conditioning being less ubiquitous than in the U.S.
    • A complete death toll likely will not be available for weeks or more due to the difficulty in counting excess deaths in a heat event.


    The big picture: According to Spain's Carlos III Institute there were 678 heat-related deaths in the country from July 10 to July 17.


    • Portugal's director-general of health told Reuters Tuesday that there were 1,063 heat-related deaths between July 7 and July 18.
    • The heat wave has now moved north into France and the U.K., where the temperatures are poised to break all-time national high-temperature records, creating life-threatening conditions for thousands of people.


    What they're saying: "This heat wave has been well forecast for nearly a week, so the hope is that enough lead time will help limit the number of casualties — though, sadly, the toll is already quickly mounting," Steve Bowen, head of catastrophe insight for Aon, told Axios.


    • Bowen added that a "notable portion" of European homes are not equipped to handle such heat and that this "really enhances the concern and risk to the most vulnerable segments of the population, such as the elderly or the homeless."


    Worth noting: Studies show that as the climate warms, the frequency of heat waves dramatically increases — as does the severity and longevity of such events, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.

    Go deeper: Europe heat wave turns deadly as France and U.K. brace for hottest days on record

    https://www.axios.com/2022/07/18/hea...ope-death-toll
    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

  2. #6602
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    JMA – June 2022 tied with 2020 to be the 3rd warmest June recorded.


    Japan Meteorological Agency

    ____________




    The Greenland Ice Sheet saw a sharp spike in the rate and extent of melting last week, with 18 billion tons of water running into the North Atlantic in just three days. Satellite photos reveal melt ponds dotting the ice cover, particularly near the coasts.

    Why it matters: Greenland's melting ice is the top annual contributor to global sea level rise. How much of and how quickly the ice sheet is lost will determine the fate of coastal cities from Hong Kong to Miami.

    Driving the news: An uptick in ice loss that occurred during the July 15-17 period sent enough water careening off the ice sheet to fill 2.4 million Olympic-sized swimming pools, said Ted Scambos, a climate scientist at the University of Colorado at Boulder, in an interview.


    • Put another way, it was the equivalent of covering all of West Virginia in four inches of water per day, for a total of 1 foot.
    • While this sounds extreme, Scambos said it doesn't rank as the highest melt surge scientists have witnessed in recent years. Periods of exceptionally mild weather, even at the highest reaches of the ice sheet, have become common since about the year 2010, which some researchers find unnerving.


    Context: "Since 2010, especially 2012, there have been lots of very extensive melt events," Scambos said, noting that northern Greenland, which was involved in the most recent event, has been seeing increasing intrusions of milder air and higher melt rates.


    • "This was a widespread event," he said. "Overall, it continues to indicate that Greenland is trending towards more melting than was the case in the 1980s and 1990s."
    • Scambos tied the most recent event to an unusually mild air mass that moved across the ice sheet from northern Canada, and not Europe's scorching heat wave. During it, the temperature reached 34°F (1.1°C) at a high-altitude weather station on the ice sheet, which is unusual for that location.


    The intrigue: Other researchers told Axios that the extent of the melting seen in northern Greenland recently has been particularly noteworthy.


    • William Colgan of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland said in an email that temperatures got warm enough for snow to melt at a high elevation scientific ice core drilling site known as East GRIP, preventing re-supply flights from landing there due to the softness of the snow and ice.
    • Mottram said the increased involvement of northern Greenland in these melt spikes may be due to changes in cloud cover there, Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute, told Axios in an email.


    What's next: Studies show that how much greenhouse gases we add to the air through the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas will largely determine the amount of ice loss from Greenland, and the potentially even greater ice melt from Antarctica, during the coming decades to centuries.


    • The greater the emissions, the more vulnerable the ice sheets will become.
    • We're already in a new reality at the poles, scientists told Axios.


    The bottom line: Greenland has been losing ice mainly from ice flowing faster into the sea, and increased calving from ocean-terminating glaciers.


    • "The ice sheet has lost more ice than it has gained every year except one (2016-17) since at least 2000," she said.
    • On average, Mottram said, Greenland loses about 250 billion tons of ice per year.
    • "A consistent loss of ice year after year is unfortunately the new normal in Greenland and the question that we scientists now ask ourselves is: How much will Greenland lose this year, not will Greenland net lose or gain ice this year?"



    NSIDC

    ___________

    Loss of land ice


    https://sites.uci.edu/

    _____________

    Extreme weather

    • Global warming sharply escalated the risk and severity of the UK heat wave: study


    Human-caused climate change tipped the scale dramatically in favor of the record-shattering U.K. heat wave that struck the country last week, a new study concludes.

    Why it matters: Extreme weather and climate events are a big part of how society is experiencing global warming, and this study clearly lays out the present-day consequences of greenhouse gas emissions.

    The big picture: The extreme event attribution study sought to find out how climate change from the burning of fossil fuels and other factors is altering the odds and severity of extreme heat events in the U.K.


    • It found that the U.K. heat wave, which peaked on July 18 and 19, setting a record for the hottest temperature in the history of the U.K., at 104.54°F (40.3°C), was at least 10 times more likely to occur in today's warmer climate compared to the preindustrial era.
    • It also found that the heat wave's average temperatures were at least 3.6°F (2°C) milder than they would have been in a world without today's high atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.
    • On July 19, an astonishing total of 34 weather stations broke the previous all-time national temperature record, according to the UK Met Office.


    Between the lines: To determine the effect of climate change on the high temperatures in the UK, 21 scientists from around the world used historical weather data and computer model simulations to determine the frequency and severity of such events in today's climate, after about 2.16°F (1.2°C) of global warming since the preindustrial era.


    • This was then compared with computer model simulations of such a heat event's occurrence in a climate lacking today's high greenhouse gas concentrations.


    Yes, but: The study notes that it likely underestimates global warming's influence on this event, and therefore on the odds and severity of similar events in the future.


    • With the UK heat wave as well as the extreme event in the Pacific Northwest last year, some climate scientists have been asking the question of whether their computer models have been underestimating the dangers of once unthinkable extreme events.


    The intrigue: One complication the researchers found when looking at the UK heat is that the frequency and severity of extreme heat in western Europe is already increasing faster than computer models have projected.


    • The models show a 3.6°F (2°C) increase in temperatures during this heat wave, but historical data shows double that.


    What they're saying: “In Europe and other parts of the world we are seeing more and more record-breaking heatwaves causing extreme temperatures that have become hotter faster than in most climate models," said Friederike Otto, a researcher at Imperial College London who co-directs the World Weather Attribution group, in a statement.


    • "It’s a worrying finding that suggests that if carbon emissions are not rapidly cut, the consequences of climate change on extreme heat in Europe, which already is extremely deadly, could be even worse than we previously thought,” she said.


    The bottom line: This new attribution study adds to the mounting evidence that human-caused global warming, largely from burning fossil fuels to generate energy, is making the planet hotter and more volatile, with cascading risks from extreme events.




    https://www.axios.com/2022/07/28/glo...d-uk-heat-wave

    ____________

    • These US cities broke heat records on Sunday


    Record high temperatures were set in at least four U.S. cities over the weekend amid a deadly heat wave that spanned much of the country.

    The National Weather Service (NWS) warned on Sunday of “searing heat” across the Mid-Atlantic and northeast regions of the country, with 100 degree or higher temperatures also expected in Kansas, Oklahoma, southern Missouri and northern Arkansas this week.

    Although most of the nation struggled with heatwaves starting last week, the northeastern U.S. bore the brunt over the weekend.

    These cities broke records:

    The NWS station in Boston, Mass., reported that Boston recorded a temperature of 99 degrees on Sunday, slightly higher than the 98 degree record set in 1933.

    The local NBC affiliate reported that temperatures hit 100 degrees at Logan Airport.

    “Sunday Scorchaaa in the City!” tweeted meteorologist David Bagley.

    Providence, R.I., logged a temperature of 96 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday, surpassing the previous high set in 1933 and tied in 1987, according to the Boston NWS station.

    However, the city was still at least two days short of its all-time record of seven consecutive days above 90 degrees.

    Newark, N.J., set a new daily temperature record at 100 degrees on Sunday. It was the fifth consecutive day of the temperature reaching 100 degrees in the city, creating the longest running streak ever recorded.

    And Sunday had cooled down since earlier in the week. Temperatures hit 108 degrees in Newark on Friday.

    Reading, Pa., also notched a high-heat record for the day, at 97 degrees.

    Philadelphia, about an hour away, was expecting a possible record-breaking 100 degrees on Sunday, but fell short with temps topping out at 98 degrees, according to the NWS.

    Heatwaves began spreading across the U.S. last week, putting more than 85 million Americans under an excessive heat watch or heat advisory.

    Heat is the deadliest weather-related event in the U.S., responsible for killing 190 Americans last year, according to NWS.

    Heatwaves, defined by a period of two days or more with unusually hot weather by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, are typically caused by trapped, warm air that simmers over a geographical area and bakes it like an oven. The trapped warm air is created by high pressure systems moving in and forcing warm air down.

    In the south, Texas and other states are trying to stay cool as hot temperatures are expected to continue into the next week.

    The Pacific northwest is also bracing for prolonged deadly heat waves this week, with NWS stations in Portland, Ore., and Seattle, Wash., readying for temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s through Friday.

    In California, heat helped fuel the Oak Fire, which has burned through nearly 15,000 acres in Mariposa County and is zero percent contained, according to California’s fire agency. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) declared a state of emergency in Mariposa County on Saturday.

    Last week, record high temperatures were also set in Europe, including the United Kingdom and France.

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...rds-on-sunday/

  3. #6603
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    More extreme weather events.

    Flooding in Arizona


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    More flooding


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    More heatwaves

    Typically mild Pacific north-west braces for another blazing heatwave
    Officials urge residents to take precautions as forecasts point to temperatures far above historic averages
    Typically mild Pacific north-west braces for another blazing heatwave | US weather | The Guardian

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    Little snow cover and glaciers melting at an alarming rate in Europe’s heatwaves have put some classic Alpine hiking routes off-limits.


    Usually at the height of summer tourists flock to the Alps and seek out well-trodden paths up to some of its peaks. But with warmer temperatures – which scientists say are driven by climate change – speeding up glacier melt and thawing permafrost, routes that are usually safe at this time of year now face hazards such as falling rocks released from the ice.


    “Currently in the Alps, there are warnings for around a dozen peaks, including emblematic ones like Matterhorn and Mont Blanc,” said Pierre Mathey, the head of the Swiss mountain guide association.
    He said this was happening far earlier in the season than normal. “Usually we see such closures in August, but now they have started at the end of June and are continuing in July.”
    Representatives of Alpine guides who usually lead thousands of hikers up towards Europe’s highest peak announced last week that they would suspend ascents on the most classic routes up Mont Blanc, which straddles France, Italy and Switzerland.
    Heatwaves put classic Alpine hiking routes off-limits | Mountaineering | The Guardian

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    At this point anyone denying climate change has got their head in the sand.

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    ‘Soon it will be unrecognizable’: total climate meltdown cannot be stopped, says expert


    Blistering heatwaves are just the start. We must accept how bad things are before we can head off global catastrophe, according to a leading UK scientist




    The publication of Bill McGuire’s latest book, Hothouse Earth, could not be more timely. Appearing in the shops this week, it will be perused by sweltering customers who have just endured record high temperatures across the UK and now face the prospect of weeks of drought to add to their discomfort.


    And this is just the beginning, insists McGuire, who is emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London. As he makes clear in his uncompromising depiction of the coming climatic catastrophe, we have – for far too long – ignored explicit warnings that rising carbon emissions are dangerously heating the Earth. Now we are going to pay the price for our complacency in the form of storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves that will easily surpass current extremes.


    The crucial point, he argues, is that there is now no chance of us avoiding a perilous, all-pervasive climate breakdown. We have passed the point of no return and can expect a future in which lethal heatwaves and temperatures in excess of 50C (120F) are common in the tropics; where summers at temperate latitudes will invariably be baking hot, and where our oceans are destined to become warm and acidic. “A child born in 2020 will face a far more hostile world that its grandparents did,” McGuire insists.


    In this respect, the volcanologist, who was also a member of the UK government’s Natural Hazard Working Group, takes an extreme position. Most other climate experts still maintain we have time left, although not very much, to bring about meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. A rapid drive to net zero and the halting of global warming is still within our grasp, they say.


    Such claims are dismissed by McGuire. “I know a lot of people working in climate science who say one thing in public but a very different thing in private. In confidence, they are all much more scared about the future we face, but they won’t admit that in public. I call this climate appeasement and I believe it only makes things worse. The world needs to know how bad things are going to get before we can hope to start to tackle the crisis.”


    McGuire finished writing Hothouse Earth at the end of 2021. He includes many of the record high temperatures that had just afflicted the planet, including extremes that had struck the UK. A few months after he completed his manuscript, and as publication loomed, he found that many of those records had already been broken. “That is the trouble with writing a book about climate breakdown,” says McGuire. “By the time it is published it is already out of date. That is how fast things are moving.”

    ‘Soon it will be unrecognisable’: total climate meltdown cannot be stopped, says expert | Climate crisis | The Guardian

  9. #6609
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo View Post
    At this point anyone denying climate change has got their head in the sand.
    Or their snout in the trough.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Or their snout in the trough.
    That's one I don't get.
    What trough?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo View Post
    That's one I don't get.
    What trough?
    Republicans? Ring any bells?

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Republicans? Ring any bells?
    Republicans have their snouts in all the troughs.
    There's a climte change trough?



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    Cleaning some shit up.........

    Zeke Hausfather - Your regular reminder that, no, we are not all doomed, and climate meltdown can be stopped.

    But it’s up to us, and depends on how fast we can take action to cut emissions. We’ve made some progress in recent years, but still have a long way to go: https://nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00874-1 : https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1553514265541107712


    Prof Michael E. Mann - This statement is entirely untrue and extremely unhelpful, especially on the verge of breakthrough climate legislation that can limit planetary warming below the 1.5C/3F danger limit.

    Says Expert. https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/sta...73643446927362




    Bill McGuire - Just wanted to say, the 'total climate meltdown' is the headline writer, not me.

    I don't say this, nor does the article. And I still believe we can avoid #climate cataclysm if we act now.: https://twitter.com/ProfBillMcGuire/...78331345764352











    Last edited by S Landreth; 01-08-2022 at 05:37 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo View Post
    Republicans have their snouts in all the troughs.
    There's a climte change trough?
    Of course there fucking is. Jaysus, what's wrong with you today? Have you been reading skidmark posts or something?

    I don't really have to show you that Republicans are by far the largest recipient of fossil fuel money, do I?

    And the biggest hindrance to US climate change action?


    Big oil companies
    contributed $383,000 in support of the lawmakers questioning their executives at a committee hearing on Wednesday, 97% of which went to Republicans, according to data from the Federal Election Commission.
    Warning: Be cautious if you are a fragile pink

  15. #6615
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    • Berkeley Earth – 2022 will finish at either the 4th or 5th warmest year recorded.



    ___________




    High-tide flooding (HTF) broke or tied records in three locations in U.S. coastal areas in the past year, according to data released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

    HTF has become increasingly frequent across the country but will likely decline this year, according to NOAA. The administration attributed the decrease to the La Niña weather phenomenon.

    HTF increases are likely to be concentrated along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico, where NOAA is predicting a 150 percent increase from the year 2000.

    Since May of this year, three different NOAA-monitored locations have tied or broken previous records for number of HTF days. Reedy Point, Del., saw a new high of six events, while Kwajalein Island in the Pacific broke its 2021 record with four days of HTF. Meanwhile, South Carolina’s Springmaid Pier saw 11 HTF events, tying its 2021 high.

    HTF occurs when ocean water floods into low-lying areas during high-tide periods, usually following tides of between 1.75 and 2 feet above the daily average. In years past, these events have been limited to storms, but they have recently become common during prevailing-wind changes or even full moons.

    The aftereffects of the La Niña event will likely blunt HTF along the West Coast and in the U.S.’s island holdings, but levels are likely to be higher along the East Coast and the western and eastern Gulf coasts, according to NOAA.

    HTF is likely to become far more extreme on a national scale in the decades ahead, according to NOAA. By 2050, NOAA predicts HTF at a national scale for about 45 to 70 days per year on average, an estimate based on projected sea level rise data.

    “Coastal flood warnings for significant risks to life and property, will become much more commonplace as we approach mid-century,” NOAA officials said.

    ___________




    Earth’s global sea levels are rising – and are doing so at an accelerating rate. Waters in the ocean are expanding as they absorb massive amounts of heat trapped by greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere. Glaciers and ice sheets are adding hundreds of gigatons of meltwater into the oceans each year. The land surface along the coasts is also creeping up and down, affecting relative sea level rise. People are feeling the impacts, as seemingly small increments of sea level rise become big problems along coastlines worldwide.


    _____________


    • Zeke Hausfather - Global sea levels have risen nearly 1 foot (0.22 meters) since the year 1900, with significant acceleration apparent in recent years.


    This figure combines tide gauge reconstructions (colored lines) with recent and highly accurate satellite altimetry data (black). https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1555619410722705409


    ______________


    • Climate change catastrophes need greater study, scientists warn


    Political leaders and climate activists often say that human-caused climate change presents an existential threat to humanity, or could lead to a global catastrophe, but this is rarely defined.

    Driving the news: A group of top climate scientists has come forward to argue that more rigorous research is urgently needed into such worst-case scenarios, which they call a "climate endgame."


    • In a new perspective piece in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 11 researchers from around the world put forward a research agenda into the consequences of global warming that reaches the higher end of plausible scenarios, amounting to 3°C (5.4°F) or greater, by the end of the century.


    Why it matters: According to the paper, worst-case scenarios have been understudied by organizations such as the U.N. IPCC due to the focus on the Paris Agreement's temperature goals, as well as the inherent cautiousness of climate scientists whose culture eschews alarmism.

    Zoom in: The piece, which is not a study but rather a detailed research proposal, states: "There are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe."


    • The authors, who include Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, a physicist who advised German Chancellor Angela Merkel on climate science, and prominent researcher Johan Rockström, see such research as having the potential to motivate society to act with greater urgency to limit warming to the Paris targets.
    • The paper notes that if all countries deliver on their non-binding long-term emissions reduction pledges it could limit warming to 2.1°C (3.78°F) above preindustrial levels by 2100.
    • The authors warn that even this optimistic scenario would make the planet warmer than any point seen for more than 2.6 million years.


    Threat level: The paper notes how the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the risks of infrequent, high-impact global events that have knock-on effects throughout the global economy.


    • The uncertainties involved with catastrophic risks may have policy specific implications, the researchers state, including by boosting the social cost of carbon, which is the price assigned to the consequences of each additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions added to the atmosphere.
    • This calculation is used when evaluating a host of government regulations and is heavily contested.


    The paper provides a tour of plausible ways in which climate change could tip society into more precarious, if not catastrophic, outcomes, from destabilizing the most fragile countries to causing physical and political "risk cascades" that can ripple around the world.


    • The authors propose a rigorous academic research agenda for conducting an “integrated catastrophe assessment” due to climate change, and recommend a special report from the IPCC on this prospect.


    • They define such warming as a temperature increase of 3°C or above preindustrial levels, which is well within the current scope of possibility.


    Of note: The authors include the "rapid spread of misinformation and disinformation," which has vexed public health officials in responding to COVID-19, as a risk factor that makes the world more vulnerable to the impacts of an extreme climate change scenario.

    What they're saying: "We are not saying that we are all doomed," lead author Luke Kemp, of the University of Cambridge, told Axios via email.


    • "This isn’t about disaster voyeurism; it is about understanding plausible catastrophic risks so we can prevent them," he said.
    • "The greater the understanding of potential catastrophic risks, the better the potential for developing effective risk reduction strategies," study coauthor Kristie Ebi, a professor at the University of Washington, told Axios via email.


    The intrigue: Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School who was not part of the author team, said he agrees that more research is needed into these issues.


    • "Even linear changes in underlying climate conditions can lead to socio-economic tipping points," he said, citing the example of the drought in Syria in 2007-2010 that helped spark the civil war there, spurring a refugee crisis that in turn led to a rightward shift in European politics.
    • "Cascading risks deserve quite a bit more attention," he said.


    https://www.axios.com/2022/08/03/cli...-greater-study
    Last edited by S Landreth; 06-08-2022 at 07:17 PM.

  16. #6616
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Copernicus – July 2022 was the one of the three warmest Julys on record, marginally cooler than July 2019, and marginally warmer than July 2016. These margins are so small that a clear ranking is not possible.


    In other words, the 2nd warmest July recorded.

    Copernicus

    _____________

    Mika Rantanen - New paper alert

    I'm excited to announce that our open-access paper "The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979" is now out: The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 | Communications Earth & Environment


    a) Annual mean temperature anomalies in the Arctic (66.5∘–90∘N) (dark colours) and globally (light colours) during 1950–2021 derived from the various observational datasets.

    ____________




    Human-caused climate change has been warming the Arctic nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, researchers in Finland said in a new study released Thursday in the journal Communications Earth and Environment.

    Why it matters: The study indicates that the polar region is warming faster than scientists previously estimated in other studies, which have previously said that the Arctic was warming either twice, more than twice or three times as fast as the planet on average.

    The study also estimates that other parts of the Arctic — such as sea areas near Novaya Zemlya, Russia, and the Barents Sea north of Norway — are warming seven times as fast as the global average.

    What they're saying: "We present evidence that during 1979–2021 the Arctic has been warming nearly four times as fast as the entire globe," the study stated.

    "Thus, we caution that referring to Arctic warming as to being twice as fast as the global warming, as frequently stated in literature, is a clear underestimation of the situation during the last 43 years since the start of the satellite observations."

    Thought bubble, via Axios' Andrew Freedman: Arctic climate change affects the entire world by altering the temperature difference between the tropics and the pole.

    This can tip the scale toward more extreme weather events from a slowing summertime jet stream. The loss of sea ice induces a positive climate feedback that in turn warms the region even more rapidly, and can speed the melt of land-based ice sheets as well.

    Scientists study the region closely because what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. The region's permafrost stores vast amounts of greenhouse gases that, if released, would significantly speed and sharply escalate the amount of global warming. This is considered one of many tipping points in the climate system.

    The big picture: Other scientists have observed record melt seasons from glaciers in parts of the Arctic this year, such as on the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard.

    Researchers have also observed peculiar and worrying melting patterns, like melt ponds and other surface water formations, on parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet in recent years.

    ____________



    Antarctica’s ice shelves may be melting much faster than scientists previously anticipated — a phenomenon that could ultimately accelerate sea level rise, a new study has found.

    Researchers at the California Institute of Technology and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory came to this conclusion by deploying a new model showing how dense, warm ocean water can get trapped along Antarctica’s icy coast and speed up melting.

    Their model, detailed in Science Advances on Friday, homes in on a “narrow ocean current” adjacent to the coast that the authors described as “often-overlooked.”

    Using the model, they simulated how rapidly flowing freshwater — melted from the ice shelves — can trap the warm ocean current at the base of the ice and thereby hasten the melting process.

    “If this mechanism that we’ve been studying is active in the real world, it may mean that ice shelf melt rates are 20 to 40 percent higher than the predictions in global climate models,” co-author Andy Thompson, a professor of environmental science and engineering at Caltech, said in a statement.

    Ice shelves are outcroppings of the Antarctic ice sheet, located where ice juts out from the land and floats on top of the ocean.

    These shelves, which can be hundreds of meters thick, serve as a protective buffer for mainland ice — preventing the entire ice sheet from flowing into the ocean, according to the researchers.

    As both the atmosphere and oceans warm due to a changing climate, the speed at which ice shelves are melting is increasing, the authors warned. Such conditions also therefore jeopardize their ability to block the flow of the ice sheet into the ocean, they added.

    The study’s release comes amid a high-traffic week for research on the Earth’s poles.

    On the opposite side of the planet, scientists showed on Thursday that the Arctic, too, is warming at a more rapid pace than previously assumed.

    Yet another research team revealed on Wednesday how humans could potentially thwart the worst impacts of climate change on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

    The Caltech-NASA researchers, however, focused their study on the West Antarctic Peninsula. This icy mass protrudes out of the higher polar latitudes and into lower, warmer altitudes, and has undergone the most dramatic changes due to climate change, they explained.

    “There are aspects of the climate system that we are still discovering,” Thompson said, noting that improvements in modeling ocean, ice and atmosphere interactions have helped scientists make more accurate predictions, with less uncertainty.

    “We may need to revisit some of the predictions of sea level rise in the next decades or century — that’s work that we’ll do going forward,” he added.


    Fig. 8. Summary of mechanisms by which Antarctic Peninsula warming increases basal melt rates of WAIS.
    (1) Multidecadal-scale warming trends over the Antarctic Peninsula have led to increased glacial runoff and freshening along the coast. (2) The influx of freshwater strengthens the westward-flowing, geostrophically balanced AACC, which (3) modifies the sea surface height and stratification in front of floating ice shelves. (4) The enhanced stratification traps more heat at depth and a larger proportion of warm water is directed into ice shelf cavities, (5) leading to enhanced basal melt rates.

    ____________

    • Dr. Robert Rohde - Every year a new layer of snow falls on Greenland & Antarctica. As the snow compacts into ice, tiny bubbles of air get trapped.


    By carefully sampling the bubbles in old layers of ice, we can measure the past atmosphere.

    That's how we know carbon dioxide has increased 50%. https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1555470684192751617


    ____________

    Extreme weather

    • This is the summer that climate change impacts are becoming overwhelmingly obvious and costly across much of Europe.


    The big picture: Western Europe's fourth region-wide, fierce heat wave of the summer is well underway.

    It's pushing temperatures into the triple digits Fahrenheit in Portugal, Spain, and France, and close to that level in the United Kingdom.

    French firefighters are battling a nearly 20,000-acre blaze in the Gironde region that has forced thousands from their homes, while other fires burn elsewhere in the heat-affected regions.

    That wildfire, burning in pine forests south of Bordeaux, has required the deployment of at least 1,000 firefighters, according to Reuters, with more resources on the way.

    Temperatures in the region are forecast to exceed 100°F Thursday and Friday along with low relative humidity levels, making firefighting conditions extremely challenging.

    Threat level: In the U.K., where temperatures are forecast to soar into the mid-to-upper 90s today through Sunday, the Met Office has hoisted an Amber "Extreme Heat Warning" through the period.

    The fire danger in southeast England is forecast to reach its two highest categories, "very high" to "exceptional," with authorities warning that they may not be able to respond to every call.

    During the record-breaking heat wave in July, fires swept through parts of London and London's mayor said it was the busiest day for fire crews since World War II.

    Grasses in and around London are tinderbox dry, firefighters warn, and could ignite with the slightest spark, spreading rapidly in heat and drought conditions.

    Context: Much of Europe is in the middle of an intense drought, which the heat will only worsen. French officials have called that country's drought, which has knocked some nuclear power plants that rely on river water to cool their reactors offline.

    July was France's driest month on record dating back to 1959, and southern England is setting drought records as well.

    In Germany, the Rhine River has hit such low levels that the viability of this crucial cargo artery, which carries commodities and energy supplies like coal and diesel fuel, is threatened.

    This summer has also seen rapid and extensive melting of mountain glaciers across Europe, including the Swiss Alps.

    According to the AP, in Valais, Switzerland, melting glaciers revealed parts of a plane that had crashed there long ago, as well as at least two skeletons in separate locations.

    Of note: The heat and drought conditions are reducing crop productivity, cutting the harvest of key commodities at a time when food supplies are strained worldwide and prices are elevated due to Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

    Context: Heat waves are more likely to occur, more intense, and longer lasting due to human-caused climate change.

    A study published following the extreme heat in England last month found that climate change made the event at least 10 times as likely than it would have been in preindustrial times.

    It also found that the heat wave's average temperatures were at least 2°C (3.6°F) milder than they would have been in a world without today's high atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, but observational data supports an even greater figure of a 4°C (7°F) difference. https://www.axios.com/2022/08/11/eur...climate-crisis

  17. #6617
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    Hail is not very common in the Pacific Northwest but we had a haill storm 2 days ago that was pretty extreme. Our roof has to be replaced along with all our vinyl siding and the vinyl fence on both sides of the property. Golf ball sized and larger hailstones do a lot of damage when they hit going 80 MPH. Will have to see how much insurance covers. Hundreds of homes involved.
    Press On Regardless

  18. #6618
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    NOAA – July 2022 was the 6th warmest July recorded


    National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

    ______________

    Extreme weather

    Quote Originally Posted by thailazer View Post
    Hail is not very common in the Pacific Northwest but we had a haill storm 2 days ago that was pretty extreme. Our roof has to be replaced along with all our vinyl siding and the vinyl fence on both sides of the property. Golf ball sized and larger hailstones do a lot of damage when they hit going 80 MPH. Will have to see how much insurance covers. Hundreds of homes involved.
    I’ve seen hail and have held it, but never as large as what is pictured below.

    Matt Gontarek (Aug 10, 2022) - Had a brief moment of quarter sized hail near Goodpasture and Delta Hwy in Eugene. Storms are now tracking NNW into Corvallis https://twitter.com/MattGontarekWX/s...26732947533825

    _______________



    The European Union is on track for a record wildfire season, the bloc's fire monitoring service warned.

    Successive heat waves — part of a warming trend driven by climate change — and persistent lack of rainfall have turned much of Europe into a tinderbox this summer, allowing fires to spread with ease.

    Flames have ravaged nearly 660,000 hectares of EU land — an area more than twice the size of Luxembourg — since the beginning of 2022, according to the latest update from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS).

    In 2017, the bloc's worst wildfire year to date, about 420,000 hectares had been burnt by mid-August before a devastating October pushed it up to 988,087 hectares for the whole year. With the fire season far from over, the EFFIS warned that this year could set a new record.

    _____________



    California lives with a sleeping giant — an occasional flood so large that it inundates major valleys with water flows hundreds of miles long and tens of miles across.

    Motivated by one such flood that occurred in 1862, scientists investigated the phenomenon in 2010. They called it the “ArkStorm scenario,” reflecting the potential for an event of biblical proportions.

    To account for the additional flood-worsening effects of climate change, scientists from UCLA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research have completed the first part of ArkStorm 2.0.

    “In the future scenario, the storm sequence is bigger in almost every respect,” said Daniel Swain, UCLA climate scientist and co-author of the paper, which is published today in the journal Science Advances. “There’s more rain overall, more intense rainfall on an hourly basis and stronger wind.”

    In total, the research projects that end-of-the-century storms will generate 200% to 400% more runoff in the Sierra Nevada Mountains due to increased precipitation and more precipitation falling as rain, not snow.

    The researchers used a combination of new high-resolution weather modeling and existing climate models to compare two extreme scenarios: one that would occur about once per century in the recent historical climate and another in the projected climate of 2081-2100. Both would involve a long series of storms fueled by atmospheric rivers over the course of a month.

    The paper also simulated how the storms would affect parts of California at a local level.

    “There are localized spots that get over 100 liquid-equivalent inches of water in the month,” Swain said, referring to the future scenario. “On 10,000-foot peaks, which are still somewhat below freezing even with warming, you get 20-foot-plus snow accumulations. But once you get down to South Lake Tahoe level and lower in elevation, it’s all rain. There would be much more runoff.”

    The increased runoff could lead to devastating landslides and debris flows — particularly in hilly areas burned by wildfires.

    The paper, which was coauthored by climate scientist Xingying Huang, found that historical climate change has already doubled the likelihood of such an extreme storm scenario, building on previous UCLA research showing increases in extreme precipitation events and more common major floods in California. The study also found that further large increases in “megastorm” risk are likely with each additional degree of global warming this century.

    “Modeling extreme weather behavior is crucial to helping all communities understand flood risk even during periods of drought like the one we’re experiencing right now,” said Karla Nemeth, director of the Califiornia Department of Water Resources, which provided funding for the study. “The department will use this report to identify the risks, seek resources, support the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan, and help educate all Californians so we can understand the risk of flooding in our communities and be prepared.”

    With drought and wildfire getting so much attention, Californians may have lost sight of extreme flooding, Swain said. “There is potential for bad wildfires every year in California, but a lot of years go by when there’s no major flood news. People forget about it.”

    The state has experienced major floods over the years, but nothing on the scale of the Great Flood of 1862. During that disaster — when no flood management infrastructure was in place — floodwaters stretched up to 300 miles long and as wide as 60 miles across in California’s Central Valley. The state’s population then was about 500,000, compared to nearly 40 million today. Were a similar event to happen again, parts of cities such as Sacramento,

    Stockton, Fresno and Los Angeles would be under water even with today’s extensive collection of reservoirs, levees and bypasses. It is estimated that it would be a $1 trillion disaster, larger than any in world history.

    Though no flood so large has happened since, climate modeling and the paleoclimate record — including river sediment deposits dating back thousands of years — shows that it typically happened every 100 to 200 years in the pre-climate change era.

    The ArkStorm flood is also known as “the Other Big One” after the nickname of an expected major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. But, unlike an earthquake, the ArkStorm would lead to catastrophe across a much larger area.

    “Every major population center in California would get hit at once — probably parts of Nevada and other adjacent states, too,” Swain said.

    The effects on infrastructure would complicate relief efforts, with major interstate freeways such as the I-5 and I-80 likely shut down for weeks or months, Swain said. Economic and supply chain effects would be felt globally.

    The first ArkStorm exercise concluded that it would not be possible to evacuate the 5 to 10 million people who would be displaced by flood waters, even with weeks of notice from meteorologists and climatologists. While it helped inform flood planning in some regions, the exercise was limited due to lack of organized resources and funding, Swain said.

    California has already seen increases in climate-driven drought and record-breaking wildfires, Swain said. With climate change-amplified flooding, ArkStorm 2.0 aims to get ahead of the curve.

    Further research and preparations to respond to such a scenario — including advanced flood simulations supported by the California Department of Water Resources — are planned to follow, Swain said. This will include collaborations with partner agencies including the California Office of Emergency Services and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

    Researchers next hope to map out where flooding could be worst and inform statewide plans to mitigate it. That could mean letting water out of reservoirs preemptively, allowing water to inundate dedicated floodplains and diverting water away from population centers in other ways.

    ___________

    • Colorado River at drought tipping point


    Officials warn a forecast downpour that has some 7 million people on flood watch won't be enough to stave off the need for drastic water cuts as the Colorado River's depleted reservoirs sink to near-crisis levels.

    Driving the news: As the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for an area covering from Arizona to Wyoming, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has given Western states that rely on the Colorado River Basin for water supplies until Tuesday to outline how they plan to make cuts.

    Why it matters: If authorities in the affected states of California, Arizona, and Nevada in the Lower Basin and Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming and Utah in the Upper Basin fail to come up with their own agreement by then, the Interior Department will step in.


    • Bureau of Reclamation chief Camille Calimlim Touton has warned that "immediate action" is needed to avoid a water supply crisis in the region next year.


    Yes, but: Negotiations on water cuts among the Colorado River's Lower Basin authorities have yet to produce an agreement.

    Our thought bubble: The Southwest continues to benefit from an active monsoon season, which is helping ease short-term drought conditions in New Mexico, parts of Nevada, and southern Colorado.


    • However, it is not making a dent nor is it expected to, in the long-term, historic drought and water woes in the Colorado River Basin.


    Context: The Southwest is mired in its worst drought of at least the past 1,200 years, which studies tie in large part to global warming.




    By the numbers: Between 2 million acre-feet and 4 million acre-feet of additional conservation is needed just to protect critical levels in 2023, according to Touton.


    • Officials believe up to a third of the Colorado River's flows need to be urgently conserved in order to avoid a crisis at Lake Powell, per Politico.


    Threat level: "The Colorado River Basin is in the 23rd year of a historic drought. Both Lake Powell and Lake Mead — the two largest reservoirs in the United States — are at historically low levels with a combined storage capacity of 28% of capacity," Touton said at a U.S. Senate hearing in June.


    The bottom line:
    "While Reclamation and its partners have been successful in conserving water in Lake Mead and Colorado River System reservoirs, more needs to be done as the system reaches critically low water levels," Touton told the senators. "The system is at a tipping point."

    https://www.axios.com/2022/08/15/sou...-river-drought

    ___________

    • Feds cut Colorado River allocation to Arizona, Nevada as talks fail


    States along the Colorado River have officially missed a federally imposed deadline to develop a new water-sharing agreement, and the federal government on Tuesday announced new water allocation reductions, including nearly 25 percent in cuts to Arizona.

    The Colorado River basin serves seven states — an Upper Basin of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, and a lower one of Arizona, California and Nevada — and its waters are allocated based on the terms of a century-old agreement from when there was substantially more water in the river.

    Meanwhile, the region is facing a 20-years-and-counting drought, the worst in centuries.

    In June, the Interior Department gave the states 60 days to agree on a new allocation plan for an additional 15 percent reduction on top of expected federal reductions before the federal government stepped in. That period expired Tuesday.

    In a news conference Tuesday, federal Bureau of Reclamation officials announced cuts to the yearly water allocation to Arizona and Nevada, as well as Mexico, which is also party to the compact. The bureau will withhold about 21 percent of Arizona’s yearly water allocation next year, as well as 8 percent of Nevada’s.

    California will not see its allocation affected, and no immediate changes are planned for the Upper Basin. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...as-talks-fail/

    ___________

    • ‘Extreme heat belt’ will impact more than 100 million Americans: study


    As record-high temperatures recently swept across several parts of the U.S. this summer, new data on heat risks forecast an “extreme heat belt” will emerge in large parts of the country by 2053.

    The heat model released Monday by researchers from the nonprofit group First Street Foundation estimates heat risks at the property level across the U.S. and how the intensity of hot days will change over the next three decades.

    The model identified the seven hottest days for any property this year and used that metric to determine how many of those days would occur in 30 years.

    Researchers found the local hottest seven days of any particular area are expected to become the hottest 18 days over the next 30 years. Miami-Dade County may experience the most dramatic shift in temperature, where the region’s seven hottest days, which include heat index temperatures at 103 Fahrenheit degrees, could increase to 34 days a year at that temperature by 2053.

    The states expected to see the largest increase in dangerous temperatures are Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri and Florida.

    According to the model, an “extreme heat belt” will encompass an area stretching from Texas and Louisiana to Illinois, Indiana and even parts of Wisconsin. By 2053, 1,023 counties could experience heat index temperatures above 125 degrees, an area home to more than 107 million that covers a quarter of U.S. land area. The model also estimates that just next year, 50 counties are expected to see temperatures beyond that figure.

    “Increasing temperatures are broadly discussed as averages, but the focus should be on the extension of the extreme tail events expected in a given year,” Matthew Eby, founder and CEO of First Street Foundation, said in a statement.

    “We need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125 degrees Fahrenheit and the results will be dire,” Eby said.

    Along with the report, the nonprofit has made an online tool available for users to search U.S. addresses and see their estimated heat risk.

  19. #6619
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    So Germany offered unlimited 9 euro train tickets for the summer and not only was it a resounding success, it improved air quality, presumably by taking lots of cars off the road. What a brilliant initiative.

    Germany'''s 9 euro ticket has created '''momentum''' for cheap public transport | CNN Travel

  20. #6620
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    • NASA – July 2022 tied with 2020 to be the 3rd warmest July on record, behind 2019 (warmest July recorded) and 2021 (2nd warmest July recorded).



    NASA

    ___________

    Dr. Robert Rohde - Not a great sign when the rate of glacier melting is literally going off the chart.: https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1561639261643984896


    Already shrunk by half, study shows Swiss glaciers are melting faster

    Switzerland’s 1,400 glaciers have lost more than half their total volume since the early 1930s, a new study has found, and researchers say the ice retreat is accelerating at a time of growing concerns about climate change.

    ETH Zurich, a respected federal polytechnic university, and the Swiss Federal Institute on Forest, Snow and Landscape Research on Monday announced the findings from a first-ever reconstruction of ice loss in Switzerland in the 20th century, based in part on an analysis of changes to the topography of glaciers since 1931.

    The researchers estimated that ice volumes on the glaciers had shrunk by half over the subsequent 85 years — until 2016. Since then, the glaciers have lost an additional 12 percent, over just six years.

    “Glacier retreat is accelerating. Closely observing this phenomenon and quantifying its historical dimensions is important because it allows us to infer the glaciers’ responses to a changing climate,” said Daniel Farinotti, a co-author of the study, which was published in scientific journal The Cryosphere.

    By area, Switzerland’s glaciers amount to about half of all the total glaciers in the European Alps.

    The teams drew on a combination of long-term observations of glaciers. That included measurements in the field and aerial and mountaintop photographs — including 22,000 taken from peaks between the two world wars. By using multiple sources, the researchers could fill in gaps. Only a few of Switzerland’s glaciers have been studied regularly over the years.

    The research involved using decades-old techniques to allow for comparisons of the shape and position of images of terrain, and the use of cameras and instruments to measure angles of land areas. The teams compared surface topography of glaciers at different moments, allowing for calculations about the evolution in ice volumes.

    Not all Swiss glaciers have been losing ice at the same rates, the researchers said. Altitude, amounts of debris on the glaciers, and the flatness of a glacier’s “snout” — its lowest part, which is the most vulnerable to melting — all affect the speeds of ice retreat.

    The researchers also found that two periods — in the 1920s and the 1980s — actually experienced sporadic growth in glacier mass, but that was overshadowed by the broader trend of decline.

    The findings could have broad implications for Switzerland’s long-term energy sources, since hydropower produces nearly 60 percent of the country’s electricity, according to government data.

    ____________

    • NASA Studies Find Previously Unknown Loss of Antarctic Ice


    The greatest uncertainty in forecasting global sea level rise is how Antarctica’s ice loss will accelerate as the climate warms. Two studies published Aug. 10 and led by researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California reveal unexpected new data about how the Antarctic Ice Sheet has been losing mass in recent decades.

    One study, published in the journal Nature, maps how iceberg calving – the breaking off of ice from a glacier front – has changed the Antarctic coastline over the last 25 years. The researchers found that the edge of the ice sheet has been shedding icebergs faster than the ice can be replaced. This surprise finding doubles previous estimates of ice loss from Antarctic’s floating ice shelves since 1997, from 6 trillion to 12 trillion metric tons. Ice loss from calving has weakened the ice shelves and allowed Antarctic glaciers to flow more rapidly to the ocean, accelerating the rate of global sea level rise.

    The other study, published in Earth System Science Data, shows in unprecedented detail how the thinning of Antarctic ice as ocean water melts it has spread from the continent’s outward edges into its interior, almost doubling in the western parts of the ice sheet over the past decade. Combined, the complementary reports give the most complete view yet of how the frozen continent is changing.

    Mapping 36 Years of Ice Loss

    In the complementary study, JPL scientists have combined almost 3 billion data points from seven spaceborne altimetry instruments to produce the longest continuous data set on the changing height of the ice sheet – an indicator of ice loss – from as early as 1985. They used radar and laser measurements of ice elevation, accurate to within centimeters, to produce the highest-resolution monthly maps of change ever made of ice loss.

    The unparalleled detail in the new record reveals how long-term trends and annual weather patterns affect the ice. It even shows the rise and fall of the ice sheet as subglacial lakes regularlyfill and empty miles below the surface. “Subtle changes like these, in combination with improved understanding of long-term trends from this data set, will help researchers understand the processes that influence ice loss, leading to improved future estimates of sea level rise,” said JPL’s Johan Nilsson, lead author of the study.

    Synthesizing and analyzing the massive archives of measurements into a single, high-resolution data set took years of work and thousands of hours of computing time on NASA’s servers. Nilsson says it was all worth it: “Condensing the data into something more widely useful may bring us closer to the big breakthroughs we need to better understand our planet and to help prepare us for the future impacts of climate change.”

    https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3206/n...antarctic-ice/


    _____________

    Dr. Robert Rohde - Retreating Arctic sea ice has reopened the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic Ocean for the 2022 season.

    This date is similar to 2021, but much later than the 2020 record.

    As a reminder, prior to 2005, most years never had a full open water passage through the Arctic. https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1562477619932987392


    _____________

    Zack Labe - I'll be keeping a close eye on #Antarctic sea ice extent over the next few weeks as we approach the annual maximum. Current levels are a record low. And earlier this year, Antarctic sea ice set a new all-time record low annual minimum. https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1562402124365201409

    ANTARCTIC: SEA-ICE CONCENTRATION/EXTENT: https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-i...concentration/


    ____________

    • BlackRock, UBS and 348 ESG funds "banned" in Texas


    Wall Street giants have a Texas-sized problem: making good on flashy vows to make clients' investments greener while limiting political and financial blowback from red states.

    Catch up fast: On Wednesday, Texas Republican Comptroller Glenn Hegar released a list of 10 companies and 348 investment funds that will be barred from doing business with the state because they “boycott energy companies.”


    • The list follows enactment of a law last year prohibiting most state agencies and local governments from contracting with such firms.
    • BlackRock, Credit Suisse and UBS made the banned list, along with sustainable investment funds from other banks.


    Why it matters: At stake are trillions in investments — including by state pension funds as well as individuals’ retirement savings — and the future of the fossil fuel industry that is fueling global warming.

    The intrigue: Consumers and regulatory agencies are pushing investment firms like BlackRock to take climate-related risks into account when making money management decisions.




    What they're saying: “The environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) movement has produced an opaque and perverse system in which some financial companies no longer make decisions in the best interest of their shareholders or their clients, but instead use their financial clout to push a social and political agenda shrouded in secrecy,” Hegar said in a statement.

    Yes, but: The 10 companies banned from doing business with the Texas government do have considerable fossil fuel investments. BlackRock wrote a letter to Hegar in May stating it actively invests in the energy industry.


    • The firm is a large shareholder in ConocoPhilips and Exxon Mobil, Bloomberg reported.
    • “This is not a fact-based judgment. BlackRock does not boycott fossil fuels — investing over $100 billion in Texas energy companies on behalf of our clients proves that,” BlackRock spokesman Brian Beades told Axios on Wednesday.
    • UBS also criticized Texas’ action. "We provided their office with extensive information on our policies and practices, demonstrating that UBS does not boycott energy companies even under a broad interpretation of Texas law," spokesperson Erica Chase told Axios Austin’s Asher Price.


    Between the lines: Though it would apply to large funds such as the Teacher Retirement System, the banned list is unlikely to have much of an impact on Wall Street, according to Daniel Firger, managing director of Great Circle Capital Advisors, a climate finance consultancy.


    • The holdings of Texas' funds covered under the ban are far lower than those from states like California and New York, which have moved aggressively to limit their fossil fuel exposure, Firger told Axios.


    Context: The Texas action is not an isolated development. Late last month, West Virginia barred five major financial firms, including BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase, from new state business after concluding they were boycotting the fossil fuel industry.


    • Other Republican-led, energy producing states may follow suit, creating stronger headwinds for sustainable investing.


    The bottom line: "Long term, climate change is not going anywhere. And so the capital markets are going to have to deal with that fact, and at root, I think that's what this ESG fight is all about," Firger said.

    https://www.axios.com/2022/08/25/tex...s-esg-backlash

    __________

    • US Interior grants $560 million across 24 states to plug more than 10,000 orphaned wells


    The Department of the Interior on Thursday announced a $560 million grant to 24 states to start plugging up and reclaiming abandoned oil and gas wells.

    The Interior department estimates there are more than 10,000 of the so-called orphan wells across those 24 states that leak methane, significantly polluting communities and recreation spaces and contributing to climate change.

    The funding to plug up the wells comes from President Biden’s historic infrastructure package passed last year. The law includes $4.7 billion specifically to address the orphan wells. Thursday’s funding is part of a phase one investment of $1.15 billion.

    Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said the infrastructure law “is enabling us to confront long-standing environmental injustices by making a historic investment to plug orphaned wells throughout the country.”

    “At the Department of the Interior, we are working on multiple fronts to clean up these sites as quickly as we can by investing in efforts on federal lands and partnering with states and Tribes to leave no community behind,” Haaland said in a statement.

    Interior officials say there are more than 129,000 abandoned oil and gas wells across the country, so the effort to plug them up in 24 states is just one step in the Biden administration’s larger goal of halting those methane leaks on the continental U.S.

    Some of those 24 states have a large number of orphan wells. Kentucky, for example, is estimated to have up to 1,200 of them, while Kansas has more than 2,300 wells and Oklahoma has about 1,196.

    As part of Thursday’s grant, six states, including California, Mississippi and West Virginia, will begin measuring methane emissions at wells they plug up and remediate.

    Twelve states, including Kansas, New Mexico and Ohio, will prioritize plugging up wells in disadvantaged communities.

    The Department of the Interior announced the phase one investment in January, the same month officials warned the U.S. has double the amount of abandoned oil and gas wells than previously thought.

    The Biden administration has focused much of its attention on tackling climate change, including through the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act this month, which has allocated $369 billion for clean energy projects.

    Methane is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere and significantly accelerates climate change once released.

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...rphaned-wells/

    ___________

    • US Climate law could reduce costs associated with emissions up to $1.9 trillion: OMB


    The Inflation Reduction Act, the tax and climate bill President Biden signed into law last week, could reduce the costs from climate-related damages by up to $1.9 trillion, according to an analysis by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

    The analysis published Tuesday is based on three models crafted by Rhodium Group and Princeton University. They found the law’s climate provisions could potentially cut up to 1 billion annual metric tons of carbon dioxide by the end of the decade, nearly meeting the White House target of cutting emissions in half relative to 2005 by 2030.

    To model the reductions beyond 2030, the analysis uses the “social cost of carbon” metric, or the financial damages associated with a projected future level of carbon pollution. The analysis notes that the model assumes yearly reductions through 2030 will continue at a comparable pace through the next two decades, which is likely a conservative estimate.

    Meeting these projections could reduce financial damages from climate impacts by between $700 billion and $1.9 trillion up to 2050, the OMB models found. In addition to reduced property damage from climate disaster, the savings would also come in the form of fewer negative health impacts and fewer energy costs associated with hotter temperatures.

    In the nearer term, the models project the law could save between $34 billion and $84 billion a year by 2030.

    The analysis, first shared with Axios, notes that the projections are entirely theoretical and do not account for every eventuality that may be involved in implementing the complex law.

    “Implementing the Inflation Reduction Act will come with a set of challenges, and real-world [greenhouse gas] emissions reductions will be impacted by complicated economic interactions,” the report states. It also notes that the social cost of carbon estimates are likely low “because they do not account for many important climate damage categories, such as ocean acidification, and because of such omitted damages and other limitations and assumptions.”

    However, OMB added, the numbers do not include any potential benefits to other parts of the economy, which could produce further reductions in emissions.

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...-trillion-omb/
    Last edited by S Landreth; 27-08-2022 at 07:25 PM.

  21. #6621
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    JMA – July 2022 was the 5th warmest July recorded


    JMA

    ______________


    • Ocean heat reached all-time high in 2021, report finds


    Ocean heat content, global sea levels and greenhouse gas concentrations all reached record highs in 2021, according to the State of the Climate report published Wednesday.

    The big picture: The annual report showcases compelling scientific evidence that climate change has global impacts and shows no sign of slowing, said Rick Spinrad of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which led the study.

    Our thought bubble: The ocean heat content findings are a sign of a planet that is absorbing far more heat than it is releasing back into space.

    The oceans are absorbing the vast majority of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases, which were also at the highest level on record last year.

    Why it matters: Ocean warming is increasingly tied to extreme weather and climate events.

    Worth noting: the global average sea level rose to a record-high for the 10th consecutive year.

    The global average sea level was about 3.8 inches higher in 2021 than the 1993 average, when the satellite measurement record began.

    1 big thing: Earth's warming trend is continuing, with 2021 among the six warmest years since records began in the mid-to-late 1800s, the report found.

    The past seven years (2015–2021) were the seven warmest years on record.

    The bottom line: "With many communities hit with 1,000-year floods, exceptional drought and historic heat this year, it shows that the climate crisis is not a future threat but something we must address today as we work to build a Climate-Ready Nation — and world — that is resilient to climate-driven extremes," Spinrad said in a statement. https://www.axios.com/2022/09/01/oce...1-report-finds

    ___________




    Greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea levels and ocean heat content reached record highs in 2021, according to the 32nd annual State of the Climate report.

    The international annual review of the world’s climate, led by scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information and published by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyoffsite link (AMS), is based on contributions from more than 530 scientists in over 60 countries. It provides the most comprehensive update on Earth’s climate indicators, notable weather events and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice and in space.

    _____________

    Regional




    This summer in France has been the second hottest on record and the hottest since 2003, national weather service Météo-France has reported.

    “Not only have hot extremes been frequent, but there have been no really cool days nationwide since early July,” the service stated.

    More details about this summer’s temperatures are to be unveiled by the meteorological service later tonight (August 30).

    The average temperature this year over the summer months (June, July and August) has been 22.67C, slightly lower than the 23.10C recorded in 2003.

    On several occasions and in multiple places, especially in the south-west of France, temperatures have surpassed 40C. Nantes, in Pays de la Loire, broke its all-time temperature record on July 18 with the peak temperature of 42C.

    ______________


    • Greenland ice melt will raise sea levels by nearly a foot


    The Greenland Ice Sheet is on course to lose hundreds of trillions metric tons of ice and contribute close to a foot in average global sea level rise through 2100, regardless of the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions cuts during the period, glaciologists found in a new study published Monday.

    Why it matters: The study indicates that human-caused global warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions has effectively locked in a certain amount of sea level rise from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.


    • Already with sea level rise seen so far, coastal flood events are far more common in cities like Miami and Charleston, and future storms are expected to have more damaging storm surges.


    By the numbers: The researchers estimated that the ice sheet will lose about 3.3% of its total volume within this century, which corresponds to 110 trillion metric tons of ice and an average global sea level rise of at least 270 millimeters, or 10.6 inches.


    • For comparison, that amount of ice loss could cover the entire U.S. with 37 feet of water, the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, finds.


    Our thought bubble, via Axios' Andrew Freedman: This study is significant since it relies on observations during two decades of studying Greenland, rather than just computer modeling.


    • In addition, the findings illustrate how hard it is to press the brakes on ice melt even if emissions were to halt completely now.


    What they're saying: Jason Box, the study's lead author and a professor at the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), said the study actually puts forward low estimates on the Greenland Ice Sheet's future, as the world will not instantly stop burning fossil fuels.


    • "It is a very conservative rock-bottom minimum. Realistically, we will see this figure more than double within this century," Box said in a statement Monday.
    • “In the foreseeable scenario that global warming will only continue, the contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level rise will only continue increasing," he added.
    • "When we take the extreme melt year 2012 and take it as a hypothetical average constant climate later this century, the committed mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet more than doubles to 78 cm," or over 30 inches by 2100.


    Yes, but: The study also only estimated average sea level rise because of ice melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet and did not consider how melt from Antarctica or other glaciers around the world may also contribute.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2 - https://www.axios.com/2022/08/29/gre...sea-level-rise

  22. #6622
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    At this point surely there are no doubters left.

    Temperatures are breaking records in southern California with advocates concerned for the unhoused and outdoor workers


    As Los Angeles struggled under a brutal heatwave, many streets were quiet as residents followed the official warnings to shelter inside their air conditioned homes. Public libraries transformed into cooling centers, and mutual aid groups prepared frozen water bottles to offer relief to unhoused residents. Food vendors were still on the streets, despite describing heat that can reach 115F (46C) inside a sweltering truck.


    Cal Fire crews work a flare up near the Barrett Mobile Home and RV Park as they fight the Border Fire Thursday, Sept. 1, 2022, in Dulzura, Calif. California wildfires chewed through rural areas north of Los Angeles and east of San Diego on Thursday, racing through bone-dry brush and prompting evacuations as the state sweltered under a heat wave that could last through Labor Day. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)


    Heading into a holiday weekend, southern California is grappling with its hottest weather of the year, with no relief in sight. Even in a city known for its heat, the triple digit temperatures in some towns around Los Angeles are breaking records, and advocates worry that the extremes will prove deadly for workers and others forced to be outside during the hottest hours of the day.


    Israel Contreras, 45, pushed an ice-cream cart along a mostly-empty sidewalk in Filipinotown, pausing in the shade of a tree. “It’s too hot,” he said. Sweat soaked through his shirt, but despite the lack of people outside, business wasn’t too bad, he said. There were children waiting inside their houses, and when they heard him, they would come out for the cold relief.

    California’s extreme heat has raised concerns on a number of fronts: as firefighters battling blazes succumbed to heatstroke, as officials worried that the state’s electric grid could be overwhelmed, and as advocates warned that those without shelter or means would be the hardest hit.


    Even with emergency measures put in place by Governor Gavin Newsom, including additional generators to produce more energy, the heatwave was expected to strain California’s electrical grid to the breaking point. In an attempt to stave off power outages, officials asked residents to try to reduce their energy use and avoid using major appliances during peak hours in the early evening when people usually return home and switch on their air conditioners.




    Soaring temperatures have alarmed parents and school officials who spoke out about public schools without enough greenery or shade for children to safely play outside. Playground asphalt can reach 145F in extreme heatwaves, the Los Angeles Times reported. In San Diego, public high school students described the difficulty of concentrating in classrooms without functioning air conditioners, the Union-Tribune reported.

    Workers who have to be outside in the heat, and the tens of thousands of people in Los Angeles who have no homes, are at particular risk of heat-related illness and death, advocates warned.


    Eight killed and dozens rescued from river at hazardous US-Mexico border crossing
    “Many unhoused people are going to pass away, being out here, and not having appropriate cold water, not having the appropriate shade,” said Theo Henderson, who hosts a podcast called We the Unhoused. Henderson urged residents who have housing to freeze water bottles and distribute them to their unhoused neighbors throughout the weekend.


    Although Los Angeles has opened up more than 150 public cooling centers in response to the heat emergency, Henderson said, the number of centers is simply “not sufficient” for a region where more than 60,000 are estimated to be unhoused.


    As many as 3,900 deaths across California in the previous decade were likely caused by excessive heat, a 2021 analysis by the Los Angeles Times found, with the state’s official statistics for heat deaths dramatically undercounting the toll, which disproportionately affects people who are poor, sick, elderly or very young. Black California residents were more likely than any other racial group to die of the heat, the analysis found.


    In historic Filipinotown on Friday, mutual aid groups had advertised that they would be handing out hundreds of gallons of cold water to anyone who wanted to distribute it to their unhoused neighbors. Phillip Kim helped other young activists load bottles of water into the back of a car, where they would take them to people living in the street in Little Tokyo, he said.


    “We’re not going to means test,” Albert Corado, another local activist, quipped. Anyone who wanted water could take it, no questions asked.

    On Tuesday, garment workers and some of California’s Democratic members of Congress held a news conference demanding more federal protections against extreme heat for workers, such as delivery drivers and farm workers.


    The Los Angeles county library system said it would open two dozen emergency cooling center locations across the city on Sunday and Monday, which “will be staffed by library workers who have agreed to work over the holiday weekend”, library spokesperson Jessica Lee said on Friday. But advocates like Henderson worry even those efforts won’t be enough, and urged the city to do more to let its most vulnerable residents know where they can find refuge.


    California has taken a more proactive approach than most to address the climate crisis but many say the extreme heatwave highlights how much more aggressive action is needed.


    Jane Fonda, the Hollywood actor who has been arrested multiple times at climate protests in Washington, noted that California legislators rejected a bill on Wednesday that would have set a more ambitious goal of a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to the current target of a 40% reduction.


    On Thursday morning, Fonda held a news conference in the scorching, nearly-deserted streets outside Los Angeles’ city hall to highlight her new climate change-focused political action committee, which is supporting a slate of climate-focused candidates at the city level in Los Angeles.


    “We need to talk about mitigation and long term solutions at the same time,” Fonda said. “We are living through the effects of climate change.”



    ‘It’s too hot’: Los Angeles melts under its worst heatwave of the year | Climate crisis in the American west | The Guardian

  23. #6623
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Berkeley Earth - July 2022 was the 4th warmest July recorded


    2022 on track to be the 4th or 5th warmest year recorded


    _____________

    Extreme weather


    • Copernicus – June to August 2022 was the warmest summer recorded in Europe



    Copernicus

    ____________




    A record heat wave is pushing California’s electric grid up against the point of failure this week, with officials pointing to climate change for putting continued stress on the system.

    The state issued an emergency alert for a seventh consecutive day on Tuesday, urging customers to conserve energy between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m.

    “We have now entered the most intense phase of this heat wave,” Elliot Mainzer, chief executive officer of California’s principal electric grid, California ISO, said in a briefing on Monday.

    As temperatures in the state capital of Sacramento head toward 114 degrees, California ISO said Tuesday that demand could hit an all-time record of 51,000 megawatts by 5:30 p.m., as solar capacity begins to taper off with sunset while temperatures — and power demand for air conditioner use — remain high.

    Officials said the grid was expected to be as much as 4,000 megawatts short of demand by late afternoon on Monday.

    To make matters worse, the older natural gas plants that provide additional power when demand is at its highest are less reliable in extreme heat, The Associated Press reported.

    “We are on razor thin margins,” Siva Gunda, vice chairman of the California Energy Commission, told the Sacramento Bee.

    California is attempting to meet demand by spinning up emergency natural gas generators — enough to power 120,000 homes.

    But those plants will provide just 120 megawatts — about 3 percent of the potential shortfall. That has the state calling on business and industry to cut power usage while asking households to raise thermostats and turn off large appliances in the evening.

    Citizen attempts to cut electricity usage over the weekend helped cut power by 1,000 megawatts — enough to supply 750,000 households, Mainzer said.

    “Your efforts have been making a real difference,” he said.

    But with temperatures set to keep rising throughout the week, if consumers can’t close the gap by cutting demand, then “blackouts, rolling, rotating outages are a possibility,” Mainzer added.

    In a rolling blackout, grid officials deal with power shortfalls by cycling outages among users. In California in August 2020, that meant outages ranging from 15 minutes to more than two hours.

    “We never want to get to that point, of course,” Mainzer said. “We want everyone to be prepared.”

    The state’s power crunch is one more sign of how climate change is straining the national grid and forcing even climate-forward states to depend even more on traditional energy sources.

    “Climate change is causing unprecedented stress on California’s energy system,” Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said in a statement last week while signing a bill to extend the life of a controversial nuclear power plant.

    The power issues also highlight the strain on infrastructure in general.

    California avoided blackouts this week in part by postponing maintenance on power plants between noon and 10 p.m. on Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported.

    That is a strategy that only works for so long.

    In Texas, which saw record demand this summer, grid officials avoided blackouts in large part by forestalling scheduled maintenance on power plants for months, a move that faced criticism.

    “Things are going to break. We have an aging fleet that’s being run harder than it’s ever been run,” Michele Richmond, executive director of Texas Competitive Power Advocates, told Bloomberg in July.

    ___________

    Dr. Robert Rohde - Yesterday's heatwave in California broke a record in Sacramento that had been set in 1925. https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1567664735398825984


  24. #6624
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Copernicus – August 2022 was the 5th warmest August recorded


    Copernicus

    ____________




    As most of the western United States baked under a prolonged, record-setting heatwave at the beginning of September, Greenland also underwent a very unusual late-season melt event. Summit Station in Greenland, at an elevation of more than 3,200 meters (10,500 feet), surpassed the melting point for the first time on record in September on the afternoon of September 3. A strong high air pressure region parked at the southeastern edge of Greenland and drew warmer air northward along the western coast of Greenland and Baffin Bay beginning on September 2, leading to the melt event.

    Unprecedented in the 44 years of continuous satellite monitoring, a late season heat wave and melt event occurred in Greenland from September 2 to 5. At the peak on September 3, more than one-third (36 percent) of the ice sheet, or around 600,000 square kilometers (232,000 square miles) had surface melting. The only comparable event so late in the season was in 2003, in late August (in terms of melt area) when temperatures at Summit reached only -2.5 degrees Celsius (27.5 degrees Fahrenheit). The melt event began along the southwestern coast on September 2, and moved rapidly inland and northward on September 3, accompanied by heavy rainfall that enhanced melt at lower elevations, and enhanced snowfall at higher elevations.


    ____________



    A new assessment of tipping points within the climate system concludes that far more stringent emissions cuts are needed, compared to the most ambitious current plans.

    Why it matters: The new study, published Friday in Science, finds tipping points lurking much closer to the present level of warming, and that the Paris Agreement's most stringent warming target of 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels could trigger four of them.


    • These would include the abrupt thawing of permanently frozen soil that rings the Arctic and the die-off of warm-water coral reefs.


    Context: The study defines a tipping point as when changes in a large part of the climate become self-perpetuating. Not every tipping point immediately affects the planet, and some are only felt regionally.


    • Still others — like the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, could take centuries to fully play out.


    The big picture: The new study is a more complete but sobering read compared to a similar paper published in 2008, since it adds new tipping points to the list and concludes that at least four of them, including the abrupt thawing of permanently frozen soil that rings the Arctic, are likely to be set off at 1.5°C of warming.


    • "Current policies leading to [about] 2 to 3°C warming are unsafe," the study states.

    Zoom in: The researchers put forward the idea of a tipping point early warning system, which could combine remote sensing, such as satellite measurements, with computer modeling and deep learning techniques.

    • Perhaps that way, alarms could be sounded before irreversible, harmful changes are set into motion.


    What they're saying: "Since I first assessed climate tipping points in 2008 the list has grown and our assessment of the risk they pose has increased dramatically," said study co-author Tim Lenton, of the University of Exeter, in a statement.


    • "We now need to trigger positive social tipping points that accelerate the transformation to a clean energy future. We may also have to adapt to cope with climate tipping points that we fail to avoid, and support those who could suffer uninsurable losses and damages."


    What's next: Scientists will discuss the new work and more today through Wednesday at a three-day conference at the University of Exeter.


    • On the agenda at this gathering: "Positive tipping points," which are socio-economic steps that could help accelerate society's transition away from fossil fuels.
    • A new effort is launching to look at concerns over "cascading risks" that tipping points pose, where there's a chain reaction of sorts.
    • The new work is called the "Tipping Points Model Intercomparison Project", or “TIPMIP." It too is on the conference program.


    The bottom line: In the 20 years since the first tipping points assessment came out, some have become nearly inevitable.


    • It's clear from this new paper and the broader research on this topic that without dramatic emissions cuts in the interim, we can't allow another 20 years to pass before we take another in-depth look.


    The five tipping points that are within range of the current 1.1’C global temp rise:


    Chart: https://www.coolearth.org/news/on-the-brink/

    _________

    • Adults around the world think climate change impacts will be severe


    More than half of adults surveyed worldwide said that climate change has already had a severe impact on their lives, a World Economic Forum-Ipsos poll released Thursday revealed.

    In 34 countries across six continents, 56 percent of the more than 23,500 adults polled responded that they felt such effects.

    More than a third said they expect to be forced from their homes by climate change within 25 years, while 71 percent agreed that climate change would have somewhat or very severe impacts on their countries within the next decade, according to the survey.

    The countries in which the most respondents expected very or somewhat severe impacts of climate change in the next decade were Portugal (88 percent), Mexico and Hungary (86 percent), Turkey and Chile (85 percent), South Korea and Spain (83 percent), Italy (81 percent), and France and Romania (80 percent).

    In nine countries — Mexico, Hungary, Turkey, Colombia, Spain, Italy, India, Chile and France — more than two-thirds of respondents said they had already been severely affected by climate change.

    https://thehill.com/policy/3644588-a...e-severe-poll/

    ______________

    • Climate change worsened Pakistan's flooding rains, study finds


    Large swaths of Pakistan are underwater from unusually prolific monsoon rains, which have killed nearly 1,500 people. Now a new study shows the connections between the flooding and climate change.

    The big picture: The study, released Thursday, shows human-caused global warming may have boosted 5-day rainfall amounts in the hardest-hit areas of Pakistan by up to 50%.


    • This means that without human-caused global warming, one-third of the rains that fell would not have occurred, researchers said in an online briefing.
    • The study notes the large uncertainty regarding how climate change affects monsoon rainfall in Pakistan due to the region's high natural variability from year-to-year, and the relative paucity of historical rainfall records.
    • Some climate models showed that nearly the entirety of the precipitation increase could be attributed to climate change.


    Driving the news: The Pakistan floods are visible via Earth observing satellites, with lakes appearing where dry land had been, after the Indus River overflowed its banks, and broke through or overtopped dams and other flood control structures.


    • The floods have affected more than 33 million people.
    • U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres last week visited Pakistan and called the flooding the result of climate change, stating on Sept. 9, "We have waged war on nature, and nature is striking back, and striking back in a devastating way."
    • Pakistan's government has blamed the disaster on climate change, a claim the study's authors said has merit to it.


    Zoom in: The new analysis comes from 26 members of the World Weather Attribution group, which is a loose-knit international team of climate researchers.


    • They looked at the rains that fell in Pakistan, and simulated the event both with and without current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
    • The researchers focused specifically on two time periods, the 60-day stretch of heaviest rains across the Indus River basin between June and September, and a five-day stretch of torrential rains in the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan.
    • Sindh and Balochistan both had their wettest Augusts on record, with seven to eight times their typical monthly totals, the study notes.
    • Natural variability associated with the monsoon prevented clear results from the 60-day rainfall totals, but the conclusions were drawn regarding the five-day totals.


    Yes, but: This disaster wasn't caused by heavy rains alone. The highly vulnerable population also played a major role, with high poverty rates, an unstable government and lack of an effective early warning weather system serving to worsen the disaster.

    Of note: Interestingly, an extreme heat event, itself tied to climate change, may have helped set up the rains, in an example of a compound climate disaster.


    • The Asian Monsoon is triggered each summer by the differential heating between the land mass of South Asia, and the waters of the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean to the south.
    • This past spring, Pakistan and India experienced a record-breaking heat wave, which increased land surface temperatures.
    • The extreme heat, with temperatures exceeding 120°F, intensified an area of low pressure, known as a "heat low," over Pakistan, according to Fahad Saeed, a researcher at the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Islamabad and coauthor of the new study.
    • This may have helped to draw more moisture northward, toward India and Pakistan, he said.


    What they're saying: "I think climate change is an important driver insofar as we do see quite a large increase in the intensity of this event," said Friederike Otto, of Imperial College in London, the lead author of the study.


    • "Up to 50 or 75% increase in intensity of rainfall is huge and especially in a region that is very vulnerable," she said.


    https://www.axios.com/2022/09/15/pak...climate-change

    _________

    Just for fun.

    • Patagonia: Billionaire boss of fashion retailer gives company away


    The billionaire founder of the outdoor fashion retailer Patagonia says he has given away his company to a charitable trust.

    Yvon Chouinard said that under a new ownership structure, any profit not reinvested in running the business would go to fighting climate change.

    This will amount to around $100bn ($86bn) a year, he claimed, depending on the health of the company.

    Patagonia sells hiking and other outdoor clothing in over 10 countries.

    Founded in 1973, its estimated revenue was $1.5bn this year, while Mr Chouinard's net worth is thought to be $1,2bn.

    "Despite its immensity, the Earth's resources are not infinite, and it's clear we've exceeded its limits," the entrepreneur said of his decision to give up ownership.

    "Instead of extracting value from nature and transforming it into wealth, we are using the wealth Patagonia creates to protect the source."

    The Californian firm was already donating 1% of its annual profits to grassroots activists and committed to sustainable practices. But in an open letter to customers, the apparently reluctant businessman said he wanted to do more.

    He said he had initially considered selling Patagonia and donating the money to charity, or taking the company public.

    But he said both options would have meant giving up control of the business. "Even public companies with good intentions are under too much pressure to create short-term gain at the expense of long-term vitality and responsibility," he said.

    Instead, the Chouinard family, which always owned the company, has transferred it to two new entities. The Patagonia Purpose Trust, led by the family, remains the company's controlling shareholder but will only own 2% of its total stock, Mr Chouinard said.

    It will guide the philanthropy of the Holdfast Collective, a US charity "dedicated to fighting the environmental crisis" which now owns all of the non-voting stock - some 98% of the company.

    "Each year the money we make after reinvesting in the business will be distributed as a dividend to help fight the crisis," Mr Chouinard said.

    Mr Chouinard is not the first entrepreneur to give wealth away. Last year the boss of the Hut Group, which owns a range of online beauty and nutrition brands, donated £100m to a charitable foundation after becoming a billionaire when his firm was listed.

    Matthew Moulding said of his newfound wealth that he "couldn't even comprehend the numbers" and was trying to make a difference.

    Meanwhile, Microsoft founder Bill Gates this year vowed to "drop off" the world's rich list as he made a $20bn donation to his philanthropic fund.

    The tech boss, who is thought to be worth $118bn, had pledged to give his wealth away to charity in 2010 but his net worth has more than doubled since then.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62906853

  25. #6625
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    Burning the world's remaining fossil fuel reserves would unleash 3.5 trillion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions -- seven times the remaining carbon budget to cap global heating at 1.5C -- according to the first public inventory of hydrocarbons released Monday.

    Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, largely powered by coal, oil and gas, has led to just under 1.2 degrees Celsius of warming and brought with it ever fiercer droughts, floods and storms supercharged by rising seas.

    The United Nations estimates that Earth's remaining carbon budget -- how much more pollution we can add to the atmosphere before the 1.5C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement is missed -- to be around 360 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, or nine years at current emission levels.

    The UN's annual Production Gap assessment last year found that governments plan to burn more than twice the fossil fuels by 2030 that would be consistent with a 1.5C world.

    But until now there has been no comprehensive global inventory of countries' remaining reserves.

    The Global Registry of Fossil Fuels seeks to provide greater clarity on oil, gas and coal reserves to fill knowledge gaps about global supply and to help policymakers better manage their phaseouts.

    Containing more than 50,000 fields across 89 countries, it found that some countries on their own held reserves containing enough carbon to blow through the entire world's carbon budget.

    For example, US coal reserves embed 520 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. China, Russia and Australia all hold enough reserves to miss 1.5C, it found.

    All told, the remaining fossil fuel reserves contain seven times the emissions of the carbon budget for 1.5C.

    "We have very little time to address the remaining carbon budget, said Rebecca Byrnes, deputy Director of Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, who helped compile the registry.

    "As long as we're not measuring what is being produced, it's incredibly hard to measure or regulate that production," she told AFP.

    Transparency, accountability

    The registry has emissions data for individual oil, gas or goal projects.

    Of the 50,000 fields included, the most potent source of emissions is the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia, which churns out some 525 million tons of carbon emissions each year.

    The top 12 most polluting sites were all in the Gulf or Russia, according to the database.

    Byrnes said that the inventory could help apply investor pressure in countries with large hydrocarbon reserves but saw little prospect of popular pressure to shift away from fossil fuels.

    "This just demonstrates that it is a global challenge and many countries that are major producers but aren't as democratic as the US for example -- that's where transparency comes in," she told AFP.

    "We're not kidding ourselves that the registry will overnight result in sort of a massive governance regime on fossil fuels. But it sheds a light on where fossil fuel production is happening to investors and other actors to hold their governments to account."

    The inventory also highlighted large variability in the price of carbon between countries, with taxes on emissions generating nearly $100 per tonne in Iraq but just $5 per tonne in Britain.

    Simon Kofe, Tuvalu's foreign minister, said the database could "assist in effectively ending coal, oil and gas production".

    "It will help governments, companies, and investors make decisions to align their fossil fuel production with the 1.5C temperature limit and, thus, concretely prevent the demise of our island homes, as well as all countries throughout our global community."
    Last edited by S Landreth; 24-09-2022 at 05:45 PM.

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