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  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by robuzo
    rule the world.
    Very much Imperialist style thinking that. No nation or culture 'rules the world', and none ever will. Even hegemonies are temporary, usually based on technological advantage.
    Quote Originally Posted by larvidchr
    Personally I'm not to worried about China
    Nor me, although if there is one country out there that should be a little wary, it is the land of Oz. Don't deny them those minerals now, diggers.

    We'll see how it pans out, but if some sort of a major spat emerges between the the US & Sino's, Australia will be a piggy in the middle.

    China faces it's own challenges too, for sure. Emerging Middle classes are a pesky, demanding bunch compared to serfs (just ask a Thai General).

    During the Cold War era, a fractious peace was maintained based on the MAD scenario. Now, a fractious peace is more likely to be based on interdependancy- on trade and debt. Assuming the West doesn't end up doing a massive default that is.
    Last edited by sabang; 07-08-2011 at 03:24 PM.

  2. #27
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    China will get old before it gets rich.
    J W Howard.

  3. #28
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    robuzo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by robuzo
    rule the world.
    Very much Imperialist style thinking that. No nation or culture 'rules the world', and none ever will. Even hegemonies are temporary, usually based on technological advantage.
    The overstatement is intentional. The fears of Japanese hegemony were wildly overdone, as the fears of Chinese hegemony are now. Nobody in their right mind ever thought the Sovs were going to "rule the world" (Put it in quotes to avoid further confusion- I thought you were a bit quicker than that).
    “You can lead a horticulture but you can’t make her think.” Dorothy Parker

  4. #29
    I am in Jail
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    Quote Originally Posted by ludwig View Post
    China will get old before it gets rich.
    J W Howard.
    Truth to that. What will China do with the aged? Do what they normally do when confronted with problems of human numbers, let people die by the side of the road? We'll see how modern and civilized they are.

  5. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9999
    When China is King, What Happens to Thailand?
    we all know the answer ........................

    https://teakdoor.com/thailand-and-asi...disregard.html (China/Thailand : Thai Government Demonstrates Disregard for Rights)

  6. #31
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    If you have had close contact with the one child of wealthier middle class Chinese, (say as students), then you have probably already seen China's Achilles heel!
    China is set for internal turmoil as these often "spoiled brats" move into public life....Perhaps compulsory military service will smooth them out.....but if not.....internal conflicts of all sorts are likely to occur as this younger generation moves into mainstream government and business.

  7. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger Ramjet
    these often "spoiled brats"
    Just look at the Democrat party, and you're looking at these 'spoiled brats' when they (sort of) grow up. They consider privilege and exclusion a birthright.

  8. #33
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FailSafe
    If the US ecomomy goes down the tubes, China will go with it- do you really think they could just shrug off the loss of their biggest (by far) customer? Not a chance
    China - EU trade is the most important and valuable for both. Surpassing both China - US and EU - US


    The EU is China's largest trading partner, and China is the EU's second largest trading partner. Most of this trade is in industrial and manufactured goods. Between 2009 and 2010 alone EU exports to China increased by 38% and China's exports to the EU increased by 31%.[5][6]

    Direction of trade Goods (2010)[5] Services (2009)[5] FDI (2009)[5]
    EU-PRC €113.1 billion €18 billion €5.3 billion
    PRC-EU €281.9 billion €13 billion €0.3 billion


    Trade between China and the European Union (EU) totaled 35.6 billion euros (49.4 billion U.S. dollars) in July, allowing China to overtake the United States as the EU's largest trade partner, the Ministry of Commerce said, citing the latest statistics from Eurostat.

    The overall value of China-EU trade in July exceeded that of the EU and the United States by 800 million euros, accounting for 13.4 percent of the region's total imports and exports, according to data released by the EU's statistics office.

    The US "living in the past" comes to mind.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  9. #34
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger Ramjet
    China is set for internal turmoil as these often "spoiled brats" move into public life
    The west's spoilt brats have been running their countries for generations.

  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger Ramjet
    these often "spoiled brats"
    Just look at the Democrat party, and you're looking at these 'spoiled brats' when they (sort of) grow up. They consider privilege and exclusion a birthright.
    Funny you mentioned that, I watched a really interesting documentary on troubled youth in China and it amazed me of what the parents went through financially to save the little P.O.S's they created. The children were sent to military type isolation camps to break them of their issues. What do the parents do the first chance they get? Spoil them again. What they did not show is how the children faired after their release. If I had to bet they went right back to being the way they were, especially the males.

  11. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9999
    Imagine if the west had cheap 'slave' labour on top of what we have already. How would they be then?
    We allready do ,,,, Thais / Phillipino,s working in our care homes , all hours / day,s night,s for the minimum wage

  12. #37
    Thailand Expat CaptainNemo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9999 View Post
    With all this talk about US going down the fiscal dunny, whilst China, the sleeping giant, awakens, how do posters think Thailand will fare?
    China has been "awake" for nearly 20 years now, and we are experiencing the effects of it's massive dumping of manufacturing goods and undercutting of manufacturing pricing.
    I wouldn't be surprised if they had a localised stock market bubble and pop in China at some point either.

    Quote Originally Posted by 9999 View Post
    I'll go out on a limb and say I reckon in 20 years time, the average Thai will be wealthier than the average American. Perhaps the Thais will be holidaying in California, hiring hot white whores by the hour.
    They already do... Slavic chicks...
    What's an average American anyway? A country with such polarisations of wealth can't really have a meaningful average; same goes for China; and as the average Chinese elite is sitting on a larger pyramid of peons than the average American elite, the wealth gap is likely to be larger.
    There's a lot of guff about China, when they talk about it having "the largest economy", implying that they are rich, it reminds me of when people confuse turnover with profit.
    China is on the brink of massive ecological collapse, and the economic and political fallout of that is likely to be "interesting" (in the Chinese sense).
    Thailand is arguably on the brink of civil war, and a fair bit of ecological pressure as well (drought in Isan; floods along the Chao Paya and sections of coast). Once certain well-known persons pass away and the vultures fly in, I doubt the Beach Boys will be getting so much air time on local radio.

    Quote Originally Posted by 9999 View Post
    Or will Thailand just remain as is, a kind of playground for the rest of the world, rife with corruption and social disparity?
    It works.

    Quote Originally Posted by 9999 View Post
    We're talking long term here, like 20+ years from now. How do TD posters think the world will pan out, and Thailand in particular?
    20 years = 2021.... the world will be beginning a major growth cycle peaking at around 2030 so great that people will forget all about this huge depression that we're in, and hurtly gayly towards the end of (easy) oil, and then the world will see the biggest economic meltdown in history in the middle of this century, that will not only fuck up North America and Europe, but China and India, and the Middle East too...
    Brazil and Russia (the real sleeping giants) will supplant India and China as the economic powerhouses, due to the massive energy price inflation, and their massive reserves of LNG.
    Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Venezuela... shall inherit the earth, because they don't have the problems of huge or ageing populations to deal with that their competitor nations do; and consequently, they will be able to outbid their competitors for resources, and there may well be a lot of new big corporate names to get used to.

  13. #38
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    14000 Chinese arriving in Phuket for Hols in April!

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