Thread: 2012 Republican Presidential Contenders

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

how would you go about ridding the I-rainians of their nuclear program?

Personally, by ridding Israel of their's. Heck, Iran might even become a bit more compliant if Israel were to condescendingly stoop to the level of the rest of us, and actually join the IAEA- y'know, the 'we got the Bomb' club. Iran is already a member.

But actually, in a world where crazy N Korea already has the bomb, Pakistan and it's mad mullahs too, and tiny belligerent Israel has loads of them- frankly I'm not much bothered at all if 'I-rain' gets a few. It's just a Red Herring, designed to divert attention from the ongoing abuse of the illegal Israeli occupation of Palestine. Well, I ain't fooled. 'Existential threat to Israel' my quarter djooish arse. If it really was, d'ya know what? Israel would willingly join the IAEA, or drop their sizable nuclear arsenal, overnight.

^^ agreed!

Originally Posted by S Landreth

Later today I will try to post a site where you can view a replay of the debate.

December 15th Fox News Iowa Debate Replay [Full Video]


Here: December 15th Fox News Iowa Debate Replay [Full Video]

^you are a glutton for punishment. I've seen enough to know that they are all bozos.

^How about it? Just the fact that it one of them becoming president is a possibility makes me want to start sniffing glue.

Originally Posted by Humbert

^you are a glutton for punishment. I've seen enough to know that they are all bozos.

This is the first (and will be the last) time that I have taken so much of an interest in a Republican Presidential Primary due to this thread and Obama (to know his competition).

I can tell you this, after reading what the right-wing (websites) are saying about these contenders I can understand why they are so troubled (grasping at straws). Most of them it seems recognize they don’t have a chance in hell to beat Obama. The ones that think they can or will are just dreamin’. Hell the US economy could collapse and unemployment go to 15% and Obama would still win.

The Republicans are now so out of line with popular public opinion, they are hopeless.

Senator Mitch McConnell (R) called a proposed plan to elect presidents by direct vote a "genuine threat to our country."

They know full well there would never be another Republican president if Americans were allowed one man one vote.

interesting poll the Paul fans should love from PPP,.........

Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.

Newt you fuckin' putz

entire store: Paul leads in Iowa - Public Policy Polling

Originally Posted by S Landreth

interesting poll the Paul fans should love from PPP,.........

Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.



Newt you fuckin' putz

entire store: Paul leads in Iowa - Public Policy Polling

S_Landreth, thanks for your info.

You are very astute. Gingrich does not seem to be as strong as I though....

^Not astute. I think most everyone understood it was coming (Newt’s downfall), the young voters did not know or remember him and the older voters had to be reeducated.

It was just a matter of time.

Some more Newt numbers,….

A CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday indicates that 28% of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say the former House speaker is their choice for their party's nominee, with an equal amount supporting former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. In CNN's previous national poll, conducted last month, Gingrich held a 24%-20% margin over Romney. And Gingrich's lead over the rest of the field of candidates was even larger in other surveys conducted at the beginning of this month.

Link: CNN Poll: Gingrich lead gone, dead even with Romney – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Gingrich’s support has trended downward now for ten straight days. On December 9th Gingrich had 37 percent support compared to Romney at 23 percent. Today Gingrich only gets 26 percent compared to Romney at 24 percent. Gingrich’s total level of support has dropped on average almost one point a day for the past ten days according to Gallup.

Link: Election 2012 Polling and News, Republican Presidential Candidates, Obama, Interactive Polling Data

The only valid Republican contender thus far has been, and remains, Mitt. The rest (like Huntsman) just never gained traction, or were just plain too wacky.

Rick Perry won't make ballot in Virginia

Texas Gov. Rick Perry failed to get on Virginia's presidential primary ballot after the state Republican Party determined Friday that he didn't submit at least 10,000 valid signatures. The GOP earlier announced former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul will be on the ballot.

An announcement from the party on former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's petitions is expected Friday evening.

The state GOP verified Friday that Romney and Paul turned in petitions with enough valid signatures, including 400 from each of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts, to get their names on the March 6 primary ballot.

Perry submitted 11,911 signatures to Virginia election officials Thursday, which means 2,000 or more signatures were deemed invalid. Gingrich had about 800 fewer signatures than Perry so there's no guarantee he would meet the 10,000-name threshold.

The rest of the field — former Sen. Rick Santorum, Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman — failed to file petitions by Thursday’s deadline and won't be on the ballot. The Democratic Party of Virginia certified President Obama’s petitions, which included more than 15,000 signatures, Friday.

entire story: Rick Perry won't make ballot in Virginia | Campaign 2012 | Washington Examiner

Newt Gingrich Fails to Qualify for Virginia's Presidential Primary

RICHMOND, Va. – Newt Gingrich will not be on the ballot for Virginia's Republican presidential primary after failing to gain the required 10,000 signatures to qualify, the Republican Party of Virginia announced early Saturday.

"After verification, RPV has determined that Newt Gingrich did not submit required 10k signatures and has not qualified for the VA primary," the party said on its Twitter feed just after 2:30am local time.

The former House Speaker had submitted 11,050 signatures to the State Board of Elections by Thursday's 5:00pm deadline and they were turned over to the state GOP for certification, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported.


entire fuck-up: Newt Gingrich Fails To Qualify For Virginia's Presidential Primary | Fox News

^He said he'll launch a write-in campaign. Would love to have seen the look on his face when someone informed him that VA doesn't allow write-ins in primary elections. Come and see the Republican version of an intellectual.

^Ya know ya (and other americans) gotta wonder how serious these guys are if they can’t even get their shit together to get on the ballot. And ta think, if they can’t even get their campaign to run properly, how the fuck do they intend to run the US?

Bunch of clowns. It is disturbing to see half the American voters (or a little less than half,… the republicans) support these people.

Time for Jeb Bush to throw his hat in the ring.

^a stark admission of the shit quality of the current contenders.

and jeb would get painted with georges brush.

he is the root cause of half this economics shite as well as iraq.

Isn't Newt a Virginia resident? He can't even vote for himself! Heh.

Pity there isn't some sort of organization he could have used to get help. They could name it after the fruit of the oak tree...

In just over a week the Republican Primaries/Caucuses will be starting and I’ll try to update the results as they are reported.

Full Primary/Caucus Calendar

January 3, 2012
Iowa (caucus)

January 10, 2012
New Hampshire (primary)

January 21, 2012
South Carolina (primary)

January 31, 2012
Florida (primary)

February 4, 2012
Nevada (caucus)

February 4–11, 2012
Maine (caucus)

February 7, 2012
Colorado (caucus)
Minnesota (caucus)
Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri

February 28, 2012
Arizona (primary)
Michigan (primary)

March 3, 2012
Washington (caucus)

March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus)
Georgia (primary)
Idaho (caucus)
Massachusetts (primary)
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio (primary)
Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary)
Vermont (primary)
Virginia (primary)

March 6-10, 2012
Wyoming (caucus)

March 10, 2012 Kansas (caucus)
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)

March 13, 2012
Alabama (primary)
Hawaii (caucus)
Mississippi (primary)

March 17, 2012
Missouri (GOP caucus) – *See note below on Missouri

March 20, 2012
Illinois (primary)

March 24, 2012
Louisiana (primary)

April 3, 2012
District of Columbia (primary)
Maryland (primary)
Wisconsin (primary)
Texas (primary)

April 24, 2012
Connecticut (primary)
Delaware (primary)
New York (primary)
Pennsylvania (primary)
Rhode Island (primary)

May 8, 2012
Indiana (primary)
North Carolina (primary)
West Virginia (primary)

May 15, 2012
Nebraska (primary)
Oregon (primary)

May 22, 2012
Arkansas (primary)
Kentucky (primary)

June 5, 2012
California (primary)
Montana (primary)
New Jersey (primary)
New Mexico (primary)
South Dakota (primary)

June 26, 2012
Utah (primary)

Link: 2012 Primary Schedule « 2012 Election Central

Schedule with delegates: Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If you’re overseas, here’s some information you might like if you plan to vote in your primary. Ballot Request Deadline: https://www.overseasvotefoundation.o...ry-Dates-Chart

Maybe a brokered convention?

Political junkies, take heart: A brokered convention is possible, if improbable. Using Rhodes Cook’s delegate count, I’ve made a spreadsheet that tabulates the results of different primary outcomes. If you use some imagination — but not too much — you can allocate the delegates in such a way that no candidate wins on the first ballot.

To secure the nomination, a candidate must get “a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention,” according to GOP rules. Cook predicts there will be a total of 2,282 delegates*, so a candidate needs 1,142 votes to win. Here’s a not-impossible outcome: Mitt Romney wins 1,131 delegates, Newt Gingrich gets 954, and Ron Paul wins 181.

In this scenario, which is roughly based on current polls, Paul wins the Iowa caucuses with 25 percent of the vote. Romney places second with 20 percent and Gingrich third with 15 percent. After winning only 10 percent of the vote each, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum drop out of the race. Next, Romney wins New Hampshire, but with only 30 percent of the vote, as a newly invigorated Paul and a slowly rising Jon Huntsman grab 25 and 15 percent of the vote respectively. Realizing the jig is up, Huntsman suspends his campaign. Afterward, Gingrich triumphs in South Carolina with 50 percent of the vote as the anti-Romney forces coalesce around him. (Rick Perry, meanwhile, drops out, after finishing with a disappointing 10 percent in the Palmetto State.) Gingrich follows up that victory with a 55 percent win in Florida, solidifying his status as a major contender.

Snip

Yes, even this implausible scenario has caveats: For it to work, the early primaries’ delegates would have comply with the election results, though there’s no legal requirement for them to do so. In states such as Iowa and Arizona, delegates aren’t bound to vote for the candidates who win their states. Second, included in these delegate counts are the state-party chairmen and national-committee members, who also are allowed to vote however they want. Third, various surprises could throw it off. In Louisiana, for instance, if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote in its primary, its delegates go to the convention uncommitted. Fourth, some delegates eliminated from the convention by the early-primary penalty may not stay eliminated. If all that stands between a candidate and the nomination is a state’s full number of delegates, it’s not inconceivable that they could push the party to drop the penalty.

Entire story: Getting to a Brokered Convention - Brian Bolduc - National Review Online

Originally Posted by S Landreth

Michele Bachmann at 11%

If the world were sane Bachmann would be thrown off the Ranch Dressing Task Force of the PTA's Picnic Fundraiser Committee, not considered by 11% of the Iowa GOP electorate as a good choice for leader of the free world.

^some people are jumping ship and for good reason

just today,........

Hawkeye State Sen. Kent Sorenson jumps to the Texan's camp hours after he attended an event in Indianola to support the MN Congresswoman.

Sorenson: "When the Republican establishment is going to be coming after Ron Paul, I thought it is my duty to come to his aid."

Bachmann camp responds: "Kent Sorenson personally told me he was offered a large sum of money to go to work for the Paul campaign."


part of the press release,.......

Iowa State Sen. Kent Sorenson Endorses Ron Paul for President

Former Iowa chairman for U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann pivots to Paul camp citing, “Ron Paul has established himself as the clear choice.”

ANKENY, Iowa – 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul was endorsed today by Iowa State Senator Kent Sorenson (R-Indianola) in a major pivot that promises to give Paul extra momentum in the run-up to the January 3, 2012 Iowa Caucus.

In making his endorsement Sen. Sorenson is leaving his post as Iowa chairman for U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s presidential campaign here. The resignation and endorsement take effect immediately.


that 11% might have been cut into half. entire release here: The Page by Mark Halperin | Bachmann Iowa Chair Ditches Her for Paul


Update: The Paul camp denies that any money changed hands, as does Sorenson. Quote: “Let’s be frank, if she was going neck-and-neck with Romney, I’d still be with her.” I believe them. Why would Ron Paul need to throw a bunch of money to peel off a staffer from a second-tier campaign? If anything, by potentially sinking Bachmann’s campaign, Sorenson’s defection might force evangelicals to line up behind Santorum and make Paul’s task harder. It’s a big loss for her but really not such a big get for Paul.

link: http://hotair.com/archives/2011/12/2...event-for-her/