Thread: Some thoughts about Crude Oil..

Total poppycock.
There's so much oil out there it's not going to run out in our great, great (etc) grandchildren's time. Finding lots everywhere from W. Africa to Brazil. Don't believe all these doomsayers...

Thanks for the article, BG.

I know little about "Peak Oil" theory, but I have a question:

Some people deny peak oil theory: Are there any serious scientists/oil industry folks who a) deny peak oil thery and/or b) are there people who are qualified who think the end of oil/pump shut downs is farther away than just 30 years down the road?

Thanks to anyone who can comment and/or who can provide any additional links.

I have been out of the industry since I left Saudi, so I am not up to speed on it anymore. but the rig workers on here should be close to it and Booners is doing something in the industry, I don't know what tho.
But they are sucking hard on the older well in Saudi by now and if that was all the oil then we would be in deep shit, butt as booners said, they are opening new fields every day, some are not Hi Class fields tho, I do not think much of Chavez crude but it is better than nothing.
Saudi has a sweet crude that is top notch, I do not know about Iran crude as thats not why I was there, But Iraq crude spills on water and it smells of naphtha and looks like kerosene.
Now if folks will just use a little judgment and ration themselves a little, what with the scientists working on the problems, I think we will last longer than some think.

It's not so much that we're suddenly going to 'run out of oil' one day, but the general trend is that it's going to get more and more expensive.

The oil that is easy to find and extract has already been found and, by and large, extracted. The oil peak that has passed is the peak of 'cheap and easily recoverable oil'. As oil gets, and stays, more expensive, less productive or 'dirtier' oil fields will become more attractive. Also, as oil gets more expensive alternate sources will become more attractive. There was some initial excitement about oil shale & tar sands back in the '70's, after the first oil crisis. When oil prices dropped in the '80's everyone lost interest again. These alternate sources will only become attractive when oil is consistently expensive and people are willing to put aside environmental concerns (not that I'm looking forward to people putting aside environmental concerns, but I do think that it will be inevitable).

In the next decade, there will be bidding wars for oil, the losers will be the ones without enough money.

In 30 or 50 years any similarity to the way the world was in 2008 will be purely coincidental. China has more than 1.5 billion and they're all buying cars. Factories going up everywhere. India has more than a billion and they want wheels. North America, by comparison will be insignificant in half a century as oil/fuel needs are concerned. Europe will be the parking lot.

Of course new technologies will come online if/when oil runs out or becomes too dear. If it's only a matter of withheld supply to increase demand, that strategy only works for so long.

In the 70s, Westinghouse produced a lightbulb that was made to last 30 years. They never put it on the market.

I do not believe that they have all the easy crude pumped, not yet, and they do not have all the worlds fields tapped either, there is still easy oil out there, but why get it now when they are making more profit than ever though possible.
No matter how much easy or cheap oil is found, it will never be cheap again.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

People are stupid, believing that crap about peak oil, made of "fucked" statistics and fears, I love how all those issues re-surfaced when oil is getting more expensive,

So it's just gonna keep on coming out of the ground is it, in ever increasing amounts?

Clown.

People were here before oil and will most likely be here after, though not in as great numbers as today.

As for the tar sands in Canada I think it's a mixed blessing. The upside is it cheap now to extract ($25 a barrel), it's plentiful, and it's in friendly territory. The downside is it is extremely environmentally unfriendly to extract and it keeps us addicted to this 20th century fuel technology while other countries are advancing (Brazil). I see a future where th U.S. will be playing catch up to Europe in technological transportation advancement because we relied so much on oil long after the rest of the world couldn't afford to.

Or, global nuclear holocaust. Whichever.

Tar sands link: http://zfacts.com/p/218.html

The world has enough oil to keep us going for at least a hundred years. But the good old days of unlimited good quality and cheap to extract oil are nearly over. So its going to get a whole lot more expensive. Which means its going to slow down world economic growth as the impact of oil prices will hit everything. Everything from food to entertainment will become relatively more expensive. We are all going to have to take a cut in living standards. But the developing countries who can least afford it will be hit hardest. Still, the spoilt affluent westerners will be the ones moaning the loudest I am sure.

Saudi Arabia is projected to run out of cheap to recover good quality oil within a couple of decades. They will still have plenty, but lower quality and far more expensive to extract. Interestingly, Iran and Iraq have the next biggest reserves of cheap to recover, good quality oil. Oil reserves - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Originally Posted by Panda

The world has enough oil to keep us going for at least a hundred years

That's only if demand remains at year 2000 levels. Which it hasn't. Do you think we will return to that level of demand with India and China now wanting the same standard of living as the West?

Originally Posted by Agent_Smith

Originally Posted by Panda

The world has enough oil to keep us going for at least a hundred years

That's only if demand remains at year 2000 levels. Which it hasn't. Do you think we will return to that level of demand with India and China now wanting the same standard of living as the West?

Not at all. Demand will fall off as price becomes excessive. You assume the world will go on expanding economically as oil prices become unbearable for developing countries. That's not going to happen. World growth will slow due to the rapidly rising price of oil. That's the whole guts of it!

If and when they ever get the mess in Iraq sorted out they should be able to meet world demand for a decade or maybe two. Which might be able to forestall any big price hikes in the short term.

Originally Posted by Hootad Binky

Electric cars work just fine; also the US has extensive geo-thermal and solar sources in the West and Southwest that could be plugged into a national grid....The US fancies itself the most innovative nation on earth yet can't seem to plan its way out of this one

Excellent thoughts and references, HB. Only one problem: without a lust for oil, the US probably doesn't get to invade anybody. I'm convinced that the addiction to oil is directly tied to the addiction to power. Oil is the currency that allows this sick and lurid power game to be played out on the world stage by creepy old men. The Bushes and Cheneys of the world should let go of the power and oil thing (it's so 20th Century), take up bowling or whoring at Nana Plaza and leave the planet alone.

Obsessive compulsive disorder really needs attention.

Originally Posted by floorpotato

Originally Posted by Hootad Binky Electric cars work just fine; also the US has extensive geo-thermal and solar sources in the West and Southwest that could be plugged into a national grid....The US fancies itself the most innovative nation on earth yet can't seem to plan its way out of this one

They have been trying to get Geo thermal on line for over 25 years that I know of up in Lake County Calif. at Middletown and it has not worked, sure there is steam but some of the gas from it is a deadly poison, terribly corrosive and the piping does not last long,
Solar is fine as long as the sun is shining, but as soon as it goes down then solar is not useful anymore as you have to store it somewhere to be of use after dark.

Electric cars are also nice, but the electricity has to come from somewhere to charge the batterys, so in daylight hours you can charge from solar, but when it is plugged in and charging at night, then it is usually from steam plants that burn Oil, Gas or Coal.
The only truly viable energy for electrical generation is Hydro, and folks do not want dams built so seems like you are just fucked.

There are some simple ways to cut oil consumption that Interest groups, their lobbyists and political puppets do not want even openly discussed. Basically, simple market economics can be used.

1- End this Freudian obsession with big cars, big engines. How?

Tax the absolute Hell out of big cars. If an SUV or V8 has a 100% tax added to it's price (the tax going towards alternative energy research), watch the market collapse.

2- Tax oil- simple as that. Nothing like a twinge in the old hip pocket nerve to alter ones consumption habits.

3- Encourage public transportation, by improving it, and perhaps Tolling individual travel in cars. Encourage car sharing, by punitively tolling single passenger private travel in cars.

These measures are not the long term answer, but they can certainly slow down the declining oil trend, and make people more conscious.

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

Total poppycock.
There's so much oil out there it's not going to run out in our great, great (etc) grandchildren's time. Finding lots everywhere from W. Africa to Brazil. Don't believe all these doomsayers...

I agree my friend. There is so much oil out there that we will have gotten off of it and on to other means before it reaches it's real peak.

I don't believe that 'fossile' fuel theory one bit. It is coming up from within the earth, and that is why 'so called' depleted fields are suddely becoming rejuvinated again.

Originally Posted by sabang

There are some simple ways to cut oil consumption that Interest groups, their lobbyists and political puppets do not want even openly discussed. Basically, simple market economics can be used.

1- End this Freudian obsession with big cars, big engines. How?

Tax the absolute Hell out of big cars. If an SUV or V8 has a 100% tax added to it's price (the tax going towards alternative energy research), watch the market collapse.

2- Tax oil- simple as that. Nothing like a twinge in the old hip pocket nerve to alter ones consumption habits.

3- Encourage public transportation, by improving it, and perhaps Tolling individual travel in cars. Encourage car sharing, by punitively tolling single passenger private travel in cars.

These measures are not the long term answer, but they can certainly slow down the declining oil trend, and make people more conscious.

Americans don't like taxes. They feel it impinges on free enterprise. Not just a rational conclusion, but more of a cultural consensus.
I cant see any party in the US proposing higher taxes (even isolated taxes on cars ) getting into power or staying in power.

Originally Posted by blackgang

No matter how much easy or cheap oil is found, it will never be cheap again.

Well, we agree on that point, at least!

One big problem with energy sources is the NIMBY(not in my backyard) factor. No-one wants a dam or a wind-farm or nuclear power plant or a strip-mine in their backyard! This means that solar power will be the supplementary energy source of choice in the next couple of decades. The efficiency of solar cells is going up every year, while the price is coming down. If oil prices stay high, we should see a real explosion of solar technology. In places like the southern US (like LA & Houston) we should see solar panels on every rooftop.

^Sounds good as long as the sun is shining,
They are talking about using solar to run air compressors to store compressed air in underground caverns and use it at night to run turbines to generate electricity.
Don't sound like a very worth while plan to me.
Solar will never be a viable source to replace power generation until a battery system if found to store the juice, or maybe a system to pump water up to a holding dam in daylight where it can be used to run turbines at night, and that is going to take a hell of a lot of area to store that water on both sides of the generators.

Originally Posted by Panda

3- Encourage public transportation, by improving it, and perhaps Tolling individual travel in cars. Encourage car sharing, by punitively tolling single passenger private travel in cars.

That would be fine as long as the city is designed for public transit, but most are not, in the US anyway, San Diego is one that is, I had a car when we lived there and it sat until the tires went flat,, and I was gone most of the time as I ran a long range sport fishing boat and was gone 12/16 days and in port only about 4 days between trips, my wife and family always used the public transit as I did when in town.
But some towns it is just not a very good source of getting around and the newer urban sprawl is making it worse.
Los Angeles is such an area, damn hard to use public transit on a daily basis. as is the SF bay area, but it is better now with BART expanding.

Originally Posted by Panda

2- Tax oil- simple as that. Nothing like a twinge in the old hip pocket nerve to alter ones consumption habits

That sounds OK, Hell let em buy the big cars if they want, but make it expensive to drive at 8 MPG when a small car will get 30., but make them build cars that will get very good mileage or put them out of business.
But some of the big rigs do get very good mileage now and can be better but will cost in horsepower at the drive wheels.

Originally Posted by blackgang

Originally Posted by Panda

3- Encourage public transportation, by improving it, and perhaps Tolling individual travel in cars. Encourage car sharing, by punitively tolling single passenger private travel in cars.

That would be fine as long as the city is designed for public transit, but most are not, in the US anyway, San Diego is one that is, I had a car when we lived there and it sat until the tires went flat,, and I was gone most of the time as I ran a long range sport fishing boat and was gone 12/16 days and in port only about 4 days between trips, my wife and family always used the public transit as I did when in town.
But some towns it is just not a very good source of getting around and the newer urban sprawl is making it worse.
Los Angeles is such an area, damn hard to use public transit on a daily basis. as is the SF bay area, but it is better now with BART expanding.

Originally Posted by Panda

2- Tax oil- simple as that. Nothing like a twinge in the old hip pocket nerve to alter ones consumption habits

That sounds OK, Hell let em buy the big cars if they want, but make it expensive to drive at 8 MPG when a small car will get 30., but make them build cars that will get very good mileage or put them out of business.
But some of the big rigs do get very good mileage now and can be better but will cost in horsepower at the drive wheels.

NOT MY POSTS QUOTED THERE.

The Yanks are so wrapped up in the idea that the rest of the world owes them a living, I doubt they will make any concessions until they drag the rest of the world down this energy sink hole first.

USA has got its turn in history at being the greatest power on earth and has really stuffed it up! A shame for all of us really, especially our kids and grandkids.

^ Put a real leader in charge, not a fake and a looser like GW Bush, and you will see how fast things will turn around,

That seems to show how much you do not know about democracy, Bush can do nothing without the blessings of congress, same with any prez, they can do nothing and if they do, it can be undone just as fast.
He can give wishes and advise but he can't do it without them letting him.
Thats why there is a senate and a congress, checks and balances..

It always takes a majority to put anything in motion..

Originally Posted by blackgang

That seems to show how much you do not know about democracy, Bush can do nothing without the blessings of congress, same with any prez, they can do nothing and if they do, it can be undone just as fast.
He can give wishes and advise but he can't do it without them letting him.
Thats why there is a senate and a congress, checks and balances..

It always takes a majority to put anything in motion..

I think you will find GWB has changed the rules.