Thread: 2022 US Mid-term elections

I'd stick to cutting and pasting, clearly you're not a details man.

^you seem to be very upset

Originally Posted by S Landreth

^you seem to be very upset

Why, because I posted actual facts that made you look stupid?

Nah, I rather enjoyed it.

Some observations from the always erudite FP:

Well, midterm season is (mostly) over, meaning it’s time for the time-honored traditions of the party that underperformed angrily recriminating itself and pundits churning out hot takes about how the midterms will shape the presidential election in two years.

We at SitRep have a little tradition of our own, which involves frantically calling a bunch of congressional sources and political junkies to sort out what impact the midterms will have on U.S. foreign policy. Here are our top five takeaways, before we know with 100 percent certainty which parties will control Congress.

1. No big jolts on Ukraine policy, but… There has been plenty of buzz about how the midterm results could shake up the massive amounts of military and economic aid that Washington is delivering to Ukraine, with some of the most vocal MAGA acolytes in the Republican Party calling for a halt to aid and some recent polls showing public opinion shifting in their favor. The consensus from people we’ve spoken to is that it’s not going to happen. There’s still significant bipartisan support across the House and Senate to keep up the aid, and that’s not changing.

One caveat we’ve heard, though: The slimmer the Republican majority is, the tougher time pro-Ukraine Republicans will have keeping their party in line. If the Republicans take the House with just a slim majority, it will give outsized power to the fringe elements of the party (as U.S. President Joe Biden himself learned the hard way with a 50-50 Senate time and again).

2. Investigations, subpoenas, impeachments, oh my. House Republicans are champing at the bit to launch investigations into what they see as Biden’s mishandling of foreign-policy issues such as Afghanistan and the U.S.-Mexico border. In the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Michael McCaul plans to use his likely soon-to-be role as chairman to expand the investigation into Biden’s chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal.

Some Republicans also say they’re preparing impeachment trials against Biden’s homeland security secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas, over increased crossings at the U.S. southern border. (It’s not something that would ever get through the Senate, but it would shine a new spotlight on the situation at the border.)

3. Shutdowns. What better way to showcase to the world how dysfunctional Washington is than with government shutdowns? The last shutdown at the end of 2018 lasted over a month, over an impasse between former President Donald Trump and Democrats on Trump’s policy toward Mexico and ill-fated plans to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. The next one could be just around the corner if Republicans take control of the House, as they seem poised to do.

The military and critical national security apparatuses keep running in the event of a shutdown but are still hobbled by an overall shutdown in federal government operations, including the Defense and State departments and other national security agencies.

A big issue for the Republicans that could trigger a shutdown is what they see as runaway federal spending and the alarming scale of the national deficit (though they didn’t bring up the national deficit during the Trump administration, funnily enough). Biden reduced the federal deficit by $1.4 trillion but added $400 billion in new debt with a nationwide student loan forgiveness plan.

4. Big wins and losses. Here’s some news in key races for the foreign-policy wonks: Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and centrist Democrat in Virginia with heavyweight national security credentials, narrowly won her reelection bid in what was seen as a bellwether race for how the Democrats would do nationally. Tom Malinowski, a New Jersey Democrat and former State Department official who played an outsized role on foreign policy and human rights issues in Congress, lost his reelection (even after ziplining into his wedding to the sound of violins playing the Indiana Jones theme song this summer). Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria of Virginia, the vice chair of the House Armed Services Committee and a vocal critic of the U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding strategy, lost her race to Navy veteran and Republican challenger Jen Kiggans.

On the Senate side, Indiana Republican Todd Young cruised to reelection. Young, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is a leading voice in the Senate on some top foreign-policy issues, including strategic arms control talks and curbing presidential war powers.

5. We don’t know what we don’t know. On the 2024 buzz that has already started, just remember two things: First, two years is a really long time. And second, the pundit class is really, really bad at predicting a presidential race two years out (though it confidently forgets this fact every cycle).

After the 2014 midterms, all the seasoned pols in Washington agreed that Jeb Bush and Chris Christie were the clear-cut front-runners for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, and well…we all know how that turned out. Right after the 2018 midterms, Democratic pundits were confident that Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown were going to be the front-runners in 2020.

Yes, Trump is still a major political force in the Republican Party even if his brand took a beating on Tuesday. But let’s not pretend to know with certainty what these midterms mean for the next presidential race.

Sarah Palin projected to lose

In races where no candidate earns at least 50% of the vote, the lowest finisher is eliminated, and voters who supported that person have their votes redistributed to their second choices. That process continues until only two candidates are left, and the person with the most votes wins.

While the combined totals of Palin and Begich would surpass Peltola’s tally, a special election in August showed the number of Begich voters willing to support Palin with second-choice votes was too small for her to overtake Peltola. Pre-election opinion polling showed little change in opinions since August.

Mary Peltola needs around 4,000 votes to win.

Should be easy enough

Haven't they finished counting yet.

Perhaps need enlist blind neutral 6 fingered folks, Appalachians is a rich seam?

as per the link.......no

Marc Elias is the best

• Arizona County Will Delay Certification of 2022 Election Results After Court Halts Full ‘Hand Recount’

The Arizona midterms election has dragged into ‘overtime’ once again, as voting machine issues and ballot printing havoc have once again cast a dark cloud over a pivotal state race. It will now be delayed even longer due to the events in Cochise County.

A legal effort in red Cochise County to conduct a full “hand recount” audit of the ballots was legally quelled, due in part to the efforts of Democratic superlawyer Marc Elias.

“Hours after my team filed in court to stop this illegal plan, Cochise County withdrew its lawsuit,” Marc Elias tweeted along with a celebratory emoji. “Hey @AZGOP,” he added in partisan fashion. https://twitter.com/marceelias/statu...44372651560960

Elias was referring to Republican county supervisors in Cochise County withdrawing their lawsuit to force the hand count audit.

“UPDATE: Republican county supervisors in Cochise County, Arizona move to withdraw their lawsuit trying to force a hand count audit of Election Day ballots cast in 16 of the county’s 17 vote centers,” Democracy Docket reported. “Opponents argued that this plan would violate state law.”

The hand recount effort was stopped due to the two Republican county supervisors Peggy Judd and Tom Crosby being unable to fund the legal effort, since the county was forcing them to proceed with the case personally.

“The withdrawal request comes after the two Republican county supervisors failed to secure payment for their lawsuit during a county board meeting yesterday,” Democracy Docket added. “The supervisors originally said they would pay for litigation related to hand counts themselves.”

The lawsuit had argued that the underlying rationale for the hand recount was that the voting machines lacked certification. The litigants claimed the U.S. Elections Assistance Commission allowed certifications for testing companies to lapse, and that “voided the certifications of vote tabulation equipment used across the state,” according to the Associated Press. However, the state’s elections director vouched that the machines and the testing company were indeed certified.

As the lawsuit’s proceedings note, the Attorney General’s race fell outside the automatic recount margin, although Arizona law allows for recounts in special circumstances, as warranted by the state legislature.

“Plaintiffs seek to withdraw their Petition as at the time the Petition was contemplated, 25 there were no clear mandated state-wide recounts,” the plaintiff’s motion to withdraw notes. “It is now clear that the race for Attorney General falls within the ½ of 1 margin and is more likely than not going to require a statewide recount.”

“Additionally, as the Elections Department will be using different machines and software, it achieves some of the goals envisioned by Plaintiffs in that it will validate or not the closest statewide race on the ballot,” the motion added.

Earlier in November, a judge had ruled that the county supervisors exceeded their legal authority by undertaking a full hand recount of Cochise County’s ballots. The Arizona Alliance for Retired Americans and a voter from the county sued and petitioned the court to stop the full hand count and calling it “unlawful, chaotic, time consuming and unnecessary.”

The Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, run by the governor’s candidate Katie Hobbs, who did not recuse herself in the 2022 election, applauded the effort and her office had participated in the legal effort to block the hand recount audit.

“Drastic changes to election processes, especially during an election, would create chaos and confusion,” Allie Bones, the deputy secretary of state, said in a statement. The secretary’s office had “filed a friend of the court brief and for the last month has argued that a full hand count is not allowed by law,” Arizona Republic reported.

Yet a judge from Pima County who was tasked with the lawsuit due to change of venue said that a smaller hand recount was allowed under state law.

Judge Casey McGinley noted that “state law directs a small number of ballots cast in precincts and a fraction of mail-in ballots to get counted by hand, and for additional hand counting only when significant discrepancies are found,” according to Arizona Republic.

However, despite the defeat of the Republican county supervisors’ legal efforts to force a full hand recount, the county is delaying certification of the state election results until November 28.

“Tom Rice, Brian Steiner and Daniel Wood managed to persuade the two Republicans who control the Cochise County board of supervisors that their claims were valid enough for them to delay the certification until a Nov. 28 deadline,” the AP reported.

The state’s election cannot be certified in Arizona until all counties have certified the results. Governor’s candidate Kari Lake and Arizona Secretary of State candidate Mark Finchem have not conceded in their races, while Attorney General candidate Abraham “Abe” Hamadeh trails in his race by approximately 570 votes. A recount is triggered in races that fall within a margin of 0.5% under state law.

Kari Lake’s margin in her race with Katie Hobbs is at 0.6%, just outside the legal parameters for an automatic recount. The Maricopa County voting disruption on Election Day has been argued by some critics to be tantamount to “voter suppression.”

• Obama to campaign for Warnock on Dec. 1 before Georgia runoff

Former President Barack Obama, reprising his battleground blitz ahead of the midterm elections, will campaign again for Sen. Raphael Warnock as the Georgia Democrat tries to withstand a strong challenge from Republican Herschel Walker before their Dec. 6 runoff.

Obama's return trip to Georgia is scheduled for Dec. 1, the eve of the final day of early in-person voting that has proven critical to Democrats in recent years, including Warnock's runoff special election victory nearly two years ago. Obama first appeared with Warnock in late October during the general election early voting period.

Warnock led Walker by about 36,000 votes in the general election but fell short of a majority, triggering a runoff under Georgia law.

Obama is the only significant national Democrat to campaign in person for Warnock, who has spent much of his reelection bid aiming for independent voters and even moderate Republicans, in addition to Democrats' core supporters. Republicans, in turn, have sought to frame the race more as a national referendum on the two parties, tying Warnock to President Joe Biden and generationally high inflation.

Democrats managed to defend their Senate majority, already securing 50 seats -- along with Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote -- and managing to limit Republicans to a threadbare majority in the House. But Georgia remains a key seat because a 51st senator would give Democrats an outright majority, including on Senate committees, while giving the caucus insurance against defections.

___________

• Marc E. Elias - BREAKING: Georgia Court of Appeals DENIES Republican motion to halt counties from offering early voting on Saturday, Nov. 26 for Senate runoff. Huge victory for Georgia voters: https://twitter.com/marceelias/statu...27739374264321

___________

Just for fun.

• Tom Petty’s Publisher Sends Cease and Desist to Kari Lake

____________

• Arizona County Lawyer Contacted Sheriff About Threat From Kari Lake Campaign: Report

A top attorney for Arizona’s Maricopa County told The Washington Post that he contacted law enforcement authorities about what he considered a threat from the campaign of losing GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.

Lake’s campaign and the Republican National Committee have denied the accusation.

The clash occurred during a phone call Nov. 14 as Lake was projected to lose to Democratic rival, Katie Hobbs. At one point a Republican National Committee lawyer on the call demanded rapid answers from the county attorney on a number of issues. The county includes vote-heavy Phoenix.

The RNC attorney, who was identified as Benjamin Mehr, underscored that there were “a lot of irate people out there” and that Lake’s campaign “can’t control them,” recalled the county attorney, Tom Liddy.

Liddy, a lifelong Republican who heads the county’s office for civil litigation, told the Post on Friday that he considered the comment a threat, and informed county Sheriff Paul Penzone and his boss, Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell.

At one point, Liddy told Mehr: “Let me tell you something, Ben, it sounds like you’re threatening me” — which Meher denied.

But Liddy reiterated: “If I don’t get these answers to you quickly, you’re not going to be able to tell the crazy people that I’ve been helpful. I don’t give a fuck. Is that clear enough? ... no more threats.”

The call was secretly recorded by the Lake campaign, which posted two minutes of the 12-minute call on Twitter. The campaign did not respond to Post requests to release the entire recording
.
The posted recording did not include the threat reported by Liddy, but it did include Mehr’s denial that he threatened Liddy. It also included Liddy’s summary of the threat, and his “no more threats” admonishment to Mehr.

Lake has refused to concede the race for governor. She tweeted Thursday: “We are still in the fight.”

The former candidate has complained that several people could not vote for her because of problems at polling places, and posted their complaints on Twitter. But The New York Times reported Saturday that 34 voters reached by the newspaper who allegedly had problems said they did cast a vote.

Only one voter contacted claimed she was not given an opportunity to vote, but she said she turned up as the polling spot was closing, the Times reported. Three others said they had problems with their voter registration. And in seven other accounts reviewed by the newspaper, it was unclear whether voters had cast ballots or believed their vote had not been counted properly, the Times reported.

____________

• Two Arizona counties delay certification of 2022 election results

Two rural Arizona counties have voted to delay certifying their ballot canvasses as some in the GOP claim voters were disenfranchised.

Cochise County, a Republican-leaning area in the state’s southeastern corner, delayed its certification on Friday after three conspiracy theorists claimed the county’s vote-counting machines were not properly certified.

The three men convinced Cochise’s two Republican supervisors to delay certifying the results until a Nov. 28 deadline in a 2-1 vote.

Arizona Elections Director Kori Lorick refuted the allegations at Friday’s meeting, detailing that although the labs used to test voting machines did not receive updated certification ahead of the midterms, the U.S. Elections Assistance Commission had confirmed they were in compliance. Lorick called it an “administrative error.”

“The equipment used in Cochise County is properly certified under both federal and state laws and requirements. The claims that the SLI testing labs were not properly accredited are false,” Lorick said.

She went on to note that the men who spoke at Friday’s meeting had filed similar claims in court, but the Arizona Supreme Court rejected their arguments.

Supervisor Hildy Angius (R) said the board had been asked to not certify the election along with multiple other counties in the state, signaling that Mohave will instead certify the results the day of the county’s deadline next week.

“I don’t think it’s fair that we have to pay the price, that we have to go through this angst every election because of what goes on down there,” Angius said at the meeting. “So whatever happens with this vote right now, I want everyone to know it has nothing to do with Mohave County, because you guys did an awesome job.”

Supervisor Jean Bishop (R) called the move “kind of ludicrous” at the meeting.

“We’re not Maricopa County, we’re Mohave County,” Bishop said. “Our vote is solid, our canvass is gonna be solid. Whether or not it’s today or Monday, it’s gonna be the same. We’re good.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...ction-results/

___________

• Voters name Trump as biggest loser of midterms

Voters and Republican operatives alike are labeling former President Trump the biggest loser of the midterms, raising questions about his strength heading into 2024.

In a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill on Monday, 20 percent of voters said Trump was the clear loser after the Nov. 8 election, while 14 percent said MAGA Republicans were and 12 percent pointed to mainstream Republicans. Additionally, 15 percent said Democrats were the biggest losers, while 23 percent said they were unsure or didn’t know.

The findings come after a number of Trump’s endorsed candidates lost up and down the ballot earlier this month, fueling speculation that his grip on the party is weakening.

“Trump emerges from the election a far weaker candidate for reelection than before the midterms,” said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. “He remains under water in his personal rating of 44 percent, is seen as having backed losing candidates and now has the possibility of having to fight a real primary in the Republican parties as he drops below 50% in a Republican primary. That’s why voters see him as the biggest loser.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...r-of-midterms/

51 news

Only poll I’ve seen after the first election. And the margin has grown larger for Warnock.

• Huge age gap shows up in AARP poll of Warnock-Walker runoff

A poll released on Tuesday by AARP, an interest group for those aged 50 and older, found a significant age gap in voters’ preferences in the Georgia Senate runoff election between incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and former NFL player Herschel Walker (R).

Warnock leads Walker by 24 percentage points among voters aged 18-49, while Walker leads by 9 points among voters aged 50 or older, according to the poll from AARP Georgia. The two groups differ in their preferences by a total of 33 points.

Voters are more supportive of Walker the older they are, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points among respondents 50 and older.

Respondents aged 65 or older favor Walker over Warnock by 13 points, while that lead shrinks to 4 percentage points among those aged 50-64.

Black voters aged 50 and up differ in preference from their age group overall, however, with Warnock holding an 83-point lead over Walker among such respondents. The margin of error for that group was 4.9 percentage points.

Overall, Warnock leads in the poll of all age groups by 4 percentage points, despite voters aged 50 and older constituting more than 60 percent of likely runoff voters.

“Georgia voters 50 and older are a critical voting demographic that both candidates are competing for in this runoff election,” said AARP Georgia State Director Debra Tyler-Horton in a statement.

“Georgia residents want their leaders to provide solutions to inflation and the rising cost of living, preserve democracy and protect their health and financial security,” Tyler-Horton added.

She continued: “The message is clear, if these candidates want to win the U.S. Senate seat, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to Georgians 50-plus.”

AARP found that 90 percent of voters 50 and older ranked themselves “extremely motivated” to vote in the runoff, which will take place Dec. 6.

The poll was conducted between November 11 and November 17, with 1,183 likely Georgia voters participating, including 550 voters aged 50 and older.

____________

• Herschel Walker Lives in Texas

Public records show Walker, a Republican, is currently benefiting from a tax break for a home he owns in Dallas that only applies if that home is your “principal residence,” CNN’s KFile first reported Wednesday. He reportedly took the tax exemption in both 2021 and 2022, after launching his Georgia Senate bid.

___________

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) said Wednesday his administration will ensure a smooth transition to Democratic Governor-elect Katie Hobbs

• Arizona GOP AG candidate, RNC file lawsuit over 2022 election

The GOP nominee for attorney general in Arizona and the Republican National Committee (RNC) filed a lawsuit Tuesday alleging that mismanagement by elections officials may have influenced the results of the race.

The Arizona attorney general’s race was set to go to a recount after Democrat Kris Mayes led Republican Abraham Hamadeh by 510 votes. Hamadeh and the RNC filed the lawsuit against Mayes, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D), and the recorders and boards of supervisors of each county in the state.

The plaintiffs specifically note before making their argument that they are not alleging any “fraud, manipulation or other intentional wrongdoing” that would affect the results of the race.

But they say that the election was “afflicted with certain errors and inaccuracies” in how some polling places were managed and how some ballots were processed and tabulated.

They allege that the officials named in the complaint representing Maricopa County improperly disqualified provisional ballots and early ballots from voters who were wrongly marked as having already voted.

They also say Maricopa County officials unconstitutionally prevented individuals whose voting eligibility could not be confirmed from casting provisional ballots.

Hamadeh and the RNC said state county officials improperly tabulated some voters’ candidate selections when the officials duplicated certain ballots that could not be electronically counted and when they adjudicated certain ballots that could not be electronically counted.

They also allege that the county officials improperly accepted early ballots that were accompanied by affidavits that had signatures not matching the ones on voters’ registration records.

Hamadeh said in a statement that the challenge is the only way to provide accountability and restore confidence in the state’s “broken election system.”

“The voters of Arizona demand answers and deserve transparency about the gross incompetence and mismanagement of the General Election by certain election officials,” he said. “Pervasive errors by our election officials resulted in the disenfranchisement of countless Arizonans who had their voices silenced.”

The RNC did not immediately return a request from The Hill for comment.

The electoral process in Arizona and specifically Maricopa County has come under scrutiny over a logistical issue that occurred on Election Day and questions from Kari Lake, the Republican nominee for governor in the state, and Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R).

Maricopa County officials said in a statement the day after Election Day that printer issues affected 17,000 ballots, causing some ballots to not be printed dark enough for tabulators to read them. The officials said they were investigating the situation but asserted that all ballots would be counted “securely and accurately.”

Brnovich sent a letter to the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office on Saturday to demand answers about the printing issues after the Arizona Attorney General Office’s Elections Integrity Unit received “hundreds of complaints” about Arizona’s administering of the election.

Lake, who was projected to lose a close race to Hobbs, the Democratic nominee, days after Election Day, has slammed the state’s election process and accused election workers of intentionally slowing down the vote counting.

Lake has refused to concede the race to Hobbs and claimed that voter fraud played a role in the race’s result, accusing elections officials in Maricopa County and others of wrongdoing.

Republican-controlled boards of supervisors in two counties, Cochise and Mohave, have also voted to delay the certification of their county’s results.

Cochise officials voted for the delay after conspiracy theorists claimed that the county’s voting machines were not properly certified, and Mohave officials voted to delay as a statement of solidarity in light of the Republican concerns about voting in Maricopa County.

_____________

Official

• Mary Peltola (D) wins US House seat in Alaska (Ranked Choice Vote) with 54.94% of vote, beating the loser wasillabilly palin.

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-results/

The GOP nominee for attorney general in Arizona and the Republican National Committee (RNC) filed a lawsuit Tuesday alleging that mismanagement by elections officials may have influenced the results of the race.

I wonder if they will continue with this lawsuit if a recount gives them the win?

Derp.

guess you'll have to wait and see

Originally Posted by S Landreth

guess you'll have to wait and see

You're a bit of a fucking idiot aren't you.

Derp.

still going to have to wait

There is a political cartoon thread here at TD

Originally Posted by S Landreth

There is a political cartoon thread here at TD

Oh do shut up. You're not a mod, you whiny, repetitive bitch.

did you forget already, school girl? I thought you had me on ignore

Originally Posted by S Landreth

There is a political cartoon thread here at TD

Still funny, though

• Election Deniers to Demand 'Revote' Outside of Arizona Capitol Building

Arizona residents seeking a redo of the 2022 general election are expected to gather at the state Capitol building on Friday to protest the results.

An announcement was posted on azrevote.com calling on attendees to meet at the Arizona Capitol on Friday morning so they can let their voices "be heard peacefully, prayerfully." The announcement also instructs Arizonians to bring signs and banners for an adjacent #AZRevote Overpass Campaign on Friday and Saturday, and provided overpass location suggestions in Maricopa County and the Tucson area.

The demonstration plans were announced several weeks after Americans flocked to polls for the November 8 Election Day, which saw some prominent Republican candidates lose statewide elections in Arizona. Some of those candidates have pushed claims of election fraud or errors, including Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who lost to Democrat and current Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs.

____________

Crooks and Liars - Where'd everybody go? #AZREVOTE https://twitter.com/crooksandliars/s...98921667497986

• Tens Of People Show Up To 'Huge' AZ Protest To 'Redo' Election

Conspiracy site The Gateway Pundit said that it would be a "huge" protest, but instead, fives of people came to the event. The wackadoodle site says, 'Trump-Endorsed Kari Lake, who had her victory stolen on election day, recently said, "I will become Governor. "'

Marc E. Elias - Thanks to our lawsuit, these 27 Georgia counties will have early voting tomorrow (today):
Baker
Baldwin
Bartow
Bibb
Burke
Chatham
Clarke
Cobb
Crawford
DeKalb
Douglas
Fulton
Gilmer
Gwinnett
Hancock
Henry
Macon
Mitchell
Muscogee
Newton
Randolph
Rockdale
Screven
Terrell
Troup
Walton
Ware
https://twitter.com/marceelias/statu...70265616343040