1.02.2023
The International Monetary Fund unexpectedly singled out Russia in its forecast for 2023. And singled out in a good sense of the word. Instead of falling Russian GDP, they are now waiting for its growth this year. While the forecasts for the US and the EU, on the contrary, were worsened. What made the IMF economists change their mind and sharply improve the forecast for the Russian economy?
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday improved its forecast for the dynamics of the Russian economy in 2023 - instead of falling by 2.3%, it is expected to grow by 0.3%, and in 2024 the fund expects growth to accelerate to 2.1%.
“The estimates of IMF experts are beginning to converge with Russian forecasts. Indeed, the Russian economy is confidently overcoming the sanctions barriers of unfriendly countries. In 2023, further economic recovery will depend on the recovery of consumer demand, as well as measures to ensure the growth of lending: both corporate and consumer,” the Ministry of Economic Development said in a comment.
The IMF also improved the estimate of China's GDP growth in 2023 - from 4.4% to 5.2%. On the other hand, it worsened the forecasts for the US and the EU. The IMF expects US GDP growth to slow to 1.4% in 2023 from 2.1% in 2022. Growth in the euro area will almost come to a halt at 0.7% after growing by 3.5% in 2022.
What is the basis for such a positive IMF forecast for the Russian economy? Why did the Western fund wait for the fall of our economy before, and now for growth? What did Western economists see in the Russian economy that they dramatically changed their forecast?
“The IMF report reflects the improvement in expectations for the cost of oil this year, including for Russian grades. The possibility of Russia to replace export deliveries to "friendly" countries is noted. The forecast also takes into account that Russia will continue to produce oil in current volumes and sell it to the East, taking into account current discounts of $25-30 to Brent. The IMF does not disclose the rest of the logic of the forecast, but it can be assumed that the second half of 2023 will be able to compensate for the pressure of the first and second quarters. In many respects, this may be due to the recovery of demand from China and the development of mechanisms to minimize the damage from the Western restrictions on raw materials,” says Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.
“The current level of cap on oil prices set by the G7 countries is not expected to have a significant impact on the volume of Russian oil exports, as trade continues to be redirected from countries subject to sanctions to countries not subject to sanctions,” - said the IMF. The country is also helped by fiscal stimulus measures.
“The IMF saw the real performance of Russian exports, which remained at a high level, despite the imposed sanctions and the oil price ceiling. That is, with its forecast, the international organization confirmed what was clear before: the restrictions imposed by the collective West against Russia do not work as expected.
Российская экономика резко поднялась в глазах Запада