Economic sanctions

**sabang** · 14-06-2022, 09:17 AM

Of course, I am an utter loon just like the Economics Editor of the Guardian! The TD intelligentsia are utterly convinced Ukraine is winning, and the economic sanctions are working!

You are a special breed of genius, boneheads,

Sanctions Against Russia Failing – What Now?

May 16, 2022

The magnitude of the current economic sanctions leveled against Russia by the US and Western countries exceed anything imposed to date on a major global power. The intent is to debilitate Russia’s economy to starve their War machine, resulting in a swift end of the Ukrainian War with its bloodshed and destruction. As long as we’re in this world of hope, maybe the economic damage will lead to President Putin’s removal from power, replaced with a leader friendlier to the West, and one who pursues democratic reforms. Unfortunately, these sanctions will probably largely fail in achieving these objectives, but they will continue to impact the global economy. One key change is they will alter the structure of global trade flows, especially fossil fuels. Despite the current equity market riot, perceiving these changes to be universally negative, this significant restructuring will not be a long-term negative for the global economy and there will be several beneficiaries of this new world order.

The sanctions include freezing hundreds of billions of Russian currency reserves, blocking most Russian bank access to the international financial transaction system, implementing high tariffs on goods, and banning Russian-company sourced fossil fuels. First, why will the economic sanctions fail? Learning from history, except for instances of an already weakened political leader, economic sanctions in and of themselves do little to bring about regime change or stop militant behavior. Successful sanctions need to be done in conjunction with overwhelming force. This is not something likely to be achieved by Ukraine alone, despite receiving weapon support from the US and Europe. Note, military power accompanied the successful sanctions against Serbia and Iraq in the 1990s. Sanctions lasting more than a decade against North Korea, multiple decades against Cuba, and more recently against Venezuela and Iran provide examples of their ineffectiveness. If anything, sanctions tend to be counterproductive, emboldening support from the aggressor’s populace for their leader. This is happening in Russia now. Combined with effective propaganda, nationalism is almost always stronger than the truth or liberalism. Sadly, far from achieving the desired political goals for the targeted country, economic sanctions frequently create collateral economic damage to parties unrelated to the conflict. Witness the current rapid inflation from higher fossil fuel prices globally.

To be successful, there needs to be universal worldwide sanction application. Unfortunately, this rarely happens against a major power and its probability of success in the case of Russia is very low. Far from it being Russia against the rest of the world, we’re increasingly seeing the world fragment into regional blocks with large segments of the earth’s population not on the West’s side. Beijing, predictably, is not on board the sanction bandwagon, refusing even to condemn the invasion. China’s April imports from Russia hit a record at $8.89 billion, up 56.6 percent from a year earlier, with much of this increase due to oil and gas. Distressingly to US policy makers, however, India, although a democracy, will not acquiesce to US pressure to halt purchases of Russian crude. In fact, India is stepping up purchases. In US discussions with New Delhi, the initial US approach of saying India “you need to do the right thing” or making a moral argument about energy sanctions was a non-starter. Being ninety percent dependent on imports for crude oil and getting it 30% cheaper from Russia is too big of an economic temptation. Further, India depends on Russia for weapons and weapon maintenance, thought to be necessary against Pakistan. Approximately 50% of their military equipment comes from Russia, US weapons viewed as being too expensive. Additionally, India believes Russia can be a counterweight in their trade and border frictions with China. Thus, China and India, each with approximately 1.4 billion people or 2.8 billion total, accounting for 35% of the world’s population, are not on the West’s side of the sanction ledger.

Even sanction support from Europe may not be what it seems. What’s the strongest major currency year-to-date? Drumroll please…it’s the Russian ruble. Plummeting initially after the invasion, the currency has rebounded impressively, making a two-year high against the greenback as of this writing. Although Western Europe threatens to end purchases of Russian natural gas, we note twenty European countries have opened Gazprombank accounts to pay for Russian gas in rubles. Notably, Germany blocked the EU from imposing a complete Russian energy embargo, saying it can only happen gradually. As reflected in Germany’s half-hearted support for Ukraine in stymying weapon exports and sending semi-worthless WW II surplus tanks without ammunition, German leadership, influenced mainly by German corporate titans, wants to maintain Russian gas imports. Thus, the country pursues hypocritical and superficial policies for purposes of maintaining support from the EU and their own populace but backs away from meaningfully punishing Russia. Although we believe Europe will eventually move to source more fossil fuels from other sources, including the Middle East, this will be an evolutionary, not immediate, process.

Although disruptions will continue in the short-term as energy supply chains realign, Asia and ASEAN sourcing Russian energy supplies grow. This will more than compensate for the loss of EU markets in the long-term. Since the Middle East cannot provide for all the energy needs of Europe and Asia, this is a positive development from an economic standpoint. More Middle East energy going to Europe, and Russian gas and crude oil rerouted to Asia should take the edge off energy prices longer-term, allowing for less inflationary pressures and better economic performance generally. We note Asia, benefiting from cheaper energy and greater trade with Russia, will be an immediate beneficiary. The following table shows how Western sanctions are leading to a realignment of Russian trade with Asia and ASEAN.

These developments have significant investment implications. First, as explained above, the energy situation in Europe will not be as dire as the markets are discounting. With the War creating a huge valuation discount in European equities, the market’s gradual understanding of the evolutionary energy supply chain adjustment will benefit European equities more than other regions. We also look for foreign currencies, which have been a persistent headwind, to turn into a tailwind as countries seek less dollar exposure. The US weaponization of the greenback against Russia by freezing reserves has induced much of the world to seek ways to lower dollar exposure both in terms of reserves as well as international transactions. This will eventually put pressure on the dollar as its universality weakens. Finally, we note the greater regionalization of trade. Notably, Asia will trade more with Russia and within Asia itself. The sanctions will probably fail in their primary objective, but the global economy including Europe and Asia, will not fail. We believe many of our investments in the International ADR and global strategies will benefit from these themes.

The foregoing content reflects the opinions of Advisors Capital Management, LLC and is subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. Securities investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no assurance that any investment plan or strategy will be successful.

Sanctions Against Russia Failing – What Now? - Advisors Capital Management

More fun reading for the boneheads-

Why Sanctions on Russia Won’t Work | Time

Why the sanctions on Russia will fail spectacularly | caucus99percent

Are sanctions on Russia failing? | The Spectator

Geddit, d'uhhh- the Sanctions are working magnificently!

If you're Russian, or a TD bonehead brigade lemming that is.

**harrybarracuda** · 14-06-2022, 09:26 AM

If the sanctions "aren't working", it kinda makes you wonder why Puffy is trying to blackmail the west into lifting them.

**sabang** · 14-06-2022, 09:31 AM

If the sanctions "aren't working" it makes you wonder why respected commentators are telling us- "the sanctions aren't working".

Have a nice day.

**harrybarracuda** · 14-06-2022, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by sabang

If the sanctions "aren't working" it makes you wonder why respected commentators are telling us- "the sanctions aren't working".

Have a nice day.

"respected commentators"

**sabang** · 14-06-2022, 09:52 AM

Like 'arry & snubs!!

**harrybarracuda** · 14-06-2022, 10:23 AM

Sabang still having a "great time" in his "friend's villa".

**bsnub** · 14-06-2022, 11:04 AM

Originally Posted by sabang

If the sanctions "aren't working"

If the sanctions aren't working, why are you basically popping blood vessels on the verge of short-circuiting every post you make? You haven't got this worked up since you falsely claimed Putin would never invade Ukraine.

**sabang** · 14-06-2022, 01:11 PM

Because- the Sanctions are not working! It is you boneheads that are in Denial.

**malmomike77** · 14-06-2022, 01:22 PM

Originally Posted by sabang

Because- the Sanctions are not working! It is you boneheads that are in Denial.

The EU has coughed up nearly £60Bn to the Russian war chest since the conflict began

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61785111

**malmomike77** · 14-06-2022, 03:01 PM

Originally Posted by panama hat

Luckily every single cent is sent to the war machine, eh NPT . . . and how much has the UK contributed to the Russian war machine?
You simply try too hard with your constant anti-EU idiocy.

is this another of your denial posts, like your denying Germany was reliant of Russian oil and gas

**sabang** · 14-06-2022, 04:11 PM

There's one born every minute mike.

**harrybarracuda** · 14-06-2022, 04:32 PM

Sabang still having a "great time" in his "friend's villa".

**bsnub** · 14-06-2022, 04:34 PM

Originally Posted by sabang

There's one born every minute mike.

Like you claiming this war would never happen. You are the biggest sucka on this forum.

**sabang** · 14-06-2022, 04:42 PM

Sure, "Mr Ass handed to Him on a Plate". Mr 'Sanction Extraordinaire'. Now you know how it feels to be as impotent as Joe (po' Jill). Hey, nuffin a bit o' war porn can't fix.

**bsnub** · 14-06-2022, 05:00 PM

You really are a sad clown, and you continue to embarrass yourself. For months and months, you bleated on and on that this war would never happen. You were made a fool of, and there is nothing that can compare to that epic level of fail.

**sabang** · 14-06-2022, 05:07 PM

It is the Biden administration being made a fool of right now, and all the Worlds a stage. Bravo joe! Those idiots couldn't raise a stiffy at an orgy, and now they're in bed with nazis. Twice in one century, Russia has had to defeat the Nazi menace, largely single handed.

**bsnub** · 14-06-2022, 05:18 PM

Originally Posted by sabang

now they're in bed with nazis.

Originally Posted by sabang

Twice in one century, Russia has had to defeat the Nazi menace, largely single handed.

You must be drunk as you are getting more and more stupid with every post.

**OhOh** · 14-06-2022, 11:28 PM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

to blackmail the west into lifting them.

Not seen any Russian blackmail so far. Care to quote some relevant ones, with references?

Russia offered a negotiable solution in December last year, to both NaGastan and NATO. Prior to any military actions by Russia.

NaGastan and its vassals attacked the two sovereign countries, which had agreed with Russia a security treaty.

Russia responded to attacks on its treaty partners against the perpetrators, and will continue until it and the two sovereign countries decide to stop.

Only THE LORD knows the timescale.

NaGastan and vassals are publicly acknowledging they are losing the financial, military and diplomatic battles. They're squealing, as sticked pigs did, will only get more vocal.

Kadir Cup: champion pig stickers in India

"In introducing the imperial sport of pig-sticking, The British Empire and Commonwealth Museum has amazing footage of the annual Raj sporting event, the Kadir Cup Meeting. The museum suggested that the earliest of the pig-sticking tent clubs seems to be the Poona club, founded early in the C19th. And as the century progressed, the event was held annually in Meerut near Delhi, taking place over three days and drawing increasingly large and excited crowds. Country Life magazine called pig-sticking a national obsession in the British Raj, the Wimbledon of its sport.

Each hunter on horseback carried a 6' spear which was grasped near the butt-end and used overhand, driven down at close quarters into the hog. Umpires supervised the hunt and the first rider to hold up a bloodied spear progressed to the next round in the competition.

The most famous winner (in 1883) of the Kadir Cup was Sir Robert Baden-Powell who wrote a book on the sport called Pig-Sticking or Hog-Hunting: A Complete Account for Sportsmen - And Others,"

ART and ARCHITECTURE, mainly: Kadir Cup: champion pig stickers in India

**sabang** · 15-06-2022, 12:56 AM

(Bloomberg) -- The US government is quietly encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer, according to people familiar with the efforts, as sanctions fears have led to a sharp drop in supplies, fueling spiraling global food costs.

The effort is part of complex and difficult negotiations underway involving the United Nations to boost deliveries of fertilizer, grain and other farm products from Russia and Ukraine that have been disrupted by President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of his southern neighbor.

US and European officials have accused the Kremlin of using food as a weapon, preventing Ukraine from exporting. Russia denies that even as it has attacked key ports, blaming the shipment disruptions on sanctions imposed by the US and its allies over the invasion.

The EU and the US have built exemptions into their restrictions on doing business with Russia to allow trade in fertilizer, of which Moscow is a key global supplier. But many shippers, banks and insurers have been staying away from the trade out of fear they could inadvertently fall afoul of the rules. Russian fertilizer exports are down 24% this year. US officials, surprised by the extent of the caution, are in the seemingly paradoxical position of looking for ways to boost them.

Collateral Damage

The US push underlines the challenge facing Washington and its allies as they seek to increase pressure on Putin over his invasion but also limit the collateral damage to a global economy which is heavily dependent on commodity supplies from Russia ranging from natural gas and oil to fertilizer and grains. Prices for all of those have spiked further since the war started in February, a point Putin regularly makes in his public efforts to undermine support for sanctions.

Washington sent a representative to UN-led talks in Moscow earlier this month on the supply issues, according to people familiar with the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. Inadequate fertilizer deliveries this year could also affect next year’s crops.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Kremlin has called on the US provide assurances to buyers and shippers of its fertilizer and grain that they aren’t subject to sanctions, suggesting it’s a condition of any steps to unblock shipments of Ukrainian farm products now.

“For Russia, it’s really important that U.S. authorities send a clear signal that these deals are permitted and in the interest of global food security and they shouldn’t refuse to carry them out,” said Ivan Timofeev, a sanctions specialist at the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council.

While Russia claims that sanctions fears are also holding back its grain exports, total shipments this season are down only 14%, and wheat exports doubled in May, according to the country’s Grain Union.

By contrast, more than 25 million tons of grain, sunflower oil and other commodities are stuck in Ukraine because of security fears in the Black Sea ports and shipping lanes traditionally used to carry them to global markets. Officials warn the situation will become more dire with the new harvest beginning.

Talks on releasing those shipments have gone slowly, with Putin seeking to pin the blame on Ukraine for not wanting to remove mines from ports placed to defend them from possible attacks by Russian forces. Kyiv has said it’s not convinced by Moscow’s assurances that it won’t strike, noting that Russia also insisted before the war that it wouldn’t invade.

De-Mining Ukraine’s Ports May Take Months, UN Agency Says

Russia won the support of Turkey in its calls for sanctions relief last week, but Ankara’s efforts to mediate a solution to restart shipments so far haven’t yielded results.

Shipping companies remain extremely wary of the Black Sea given sanctions and security fears, and industry officials say a more concerted international push will be needed to reassure them. Efforts to ship Ukrainian produce by rail to Europe have yield limited results amid differing track gauges and other logistical issues.

“We’re working together with our partners to get about half of what Ukraine exports out each month,” but that will take some time, James O’Brien, head of the Office of Sanctions Coordination at the State Department, told an online briefing June 9. “So we’re looking at a substantial shortfall.”

US Quietly Urges Russia Fertilizer Deals to Unlock Grain Trade

**harrybarracuda** · 15-06-2022, 01:37 AM

Hands up who would go for a "great time" with their "mates" at their "mates villa" and worry about posting bollocks on here?

Ah, sabang of course.

You wanker.

**sabang** · 15-06-2022, 01:44 AM

It isn't my mates villa you idiot and considering you ain't gotta pot to piss in, the envy shines through. Don't let the green eyed monster consume you 'arry.

Do you find it strange that the US is now actually helping Russia with selected exports? Ever get the idea you have been kept in the dark about sooo many things?

**Backspin** · 15-06-2022, 12:50 PM

❗️Siemens Energy claims that they have repaired one of the gas turbines of Nord Stream 1 but could not return it from Montreal due to Canadian sanctions against Russia. Let the blame game begin , I think more sanctions needed , no ?! ��

**harrybarracuda** · 15-06-2022, 12:55 PM

Originally Posted by panama hat

It's his 'friend' and 'his' house ... living it large being in 'Thailand'.

Sounds like he booked an airbnb with the boyfriend.

**sabang** · 15-06-2022, 03:01 PM

The forum walter mitty's are living their vicarious pleasure through the 'life of sab' it seems.

Enjoy those jollies.

Without Cheap Russian Energy, Some European Factories Are Shutting Down

Industrial energy costs are soaring in the wake of Russia's war on Ukraine, hobbling European manufacturers' ability to compete globally

For decades, European industry relied on Russia to supply low-cost oil and natural gas that kept the continent's factories humming.

Now Europe's industrial energy costs are soaring in the wake of Russia's war on Ukraine, hobbling manufacturers' ability to compete in the global marketplace.
Factories are scrambling to find alternatives to Russian energy under threat that Moscow could abruptly turn off the gas spigot, bringing production to a halt.

Europe's producers of chemicals, fertilizer, steel and other energy-intensive goods have come under pressure over the last eight months as tensions with Russia climbed ahead of the February invasion.

Some producers are shutting down in the face of competition from factories in the U.S., the Middle East and other regions where energy costs are much lower than in Europe.

Natural-gas prices are now nearly three times higher in Europe than in the U.S.

"Overall, the big concern for Europe is increasing imports and falling exports," said Marco Mensink, director general of Cefic, Europe's chemical-industry trade group.

The conflict with Russia has Europe preparing to ration gas if Russian President Vladimir Putin shuts off supplies to the entire region.

Russian state-owned natural-gas company Gazprom PJSC has already cut off Bulgaria, Finland and Poland after the countries refused to accede to a Kremlin decree demanding payment for gas in rubles.

FULL- Without Cheap Russian Energy, Some European Factories Are Shutting Down

**bsnub** · 15-06-2022, 03:07 PM

Oh no! It is the this war will never start, clown guy again.

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