Thread: The View, from China

An opinion from the FT.

The new Washington consensus

Yesterday’s US economic orthodoxy is today’s heresy

Edward Luce APRIL 19 2023

"If you like time warps, read Bill Clinton’s 2000 speech urging Congress to admit China into the World Trade Organization. China’s entry would enrich Americans and help convert China to freedom, he said. “There’s no question China has been trying to crack down on the internet,” Clinton conceded to laughter. “Good luck! That’s sort of like trying to nail jello to the wall.”

Less than a quarter of a century later, China lives behind a Great Firewall and the Washington consensus has long since been declared dead. That term, which was coined by a British economist in 1989, consisted of free market maxims. Its guarantor was the US and its crack troops were the World Bank and the IMF. The ten-point list was exclusively economic. Geopolitics had lost its relevance since the end of the Cold War.

The past is another world. The goal of integrating China has been replaced with a debate about how to dis-integrate China. Contrast Clinton’s speech — the high noon of the Washington consensus — with this week’s G7 foreign minister’s meeting, which was focused on disengaging from China. Compare the marginalised status of the IMF and World Bank in today’s global economy with the hegemonic Bretton Woods bodies of the 1990s.

The new Washington consensus is different to the old in three key respects. First, Washington is no longer the uncontested Rome of today’s world. It has competition from Beijing. The new consensus is thus largely confined to Washington itself rather than the swaggering US that set the global standards after the end of the Cold War. It is an American political consensus with Donald Trump its harshest exponent. He talks of how trade with China has created “American carnage” and led to the “rape” of America. Joe Biden’s language is far gentler but his enforcement is more rigorous. Biden’s policy is Trumpism with a human face.

Second, the new consensus is geopolitical. It does have economic tools, such as reshoring supply chains, prioritising resilience over efficiency, and industrial policy. But these are largely means to a national security end, which is to contain China. The old consensus was a positive sum game; if one country got richer others did too. The new one is zero sum; one country’s growth comes at the expense of another’s.

The third difference is that the new consensus is as pessimistic as the old one was optimistic. In that sense it is less intuitively American than what it replaced. The spirit of can-do has given way to a roster of can’t-dos. Today’s US cannot make trade deals, cannot negotiate global digital rules, cannot abide by WTO rulings and cannot support Bretton Woods reforms. Washington has lost faith in economic multilateralism.

Will the new consensus be effective? The ultimate test is whether China can variously be contained, engaged, competed and cajoled into accepting the US-led order. Today’s Washington subscribes to all of these approaches, some of which are more sophisticated than others. Biden himself focuses more on competition than cajoling. His aim is not to decouple from China but to create what Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, calls a “small yard” with a “high fence”.

That means America will continue to trade with China except in goods that can be used to upgrade China’s military, which means high-end semiconductors and anything that boosts China’s AI ambitions. It is not obvious where you can safely draw that line, which suggests Sullivan’s small yard will expand over time. Compared to the China hawks outside the Biden administration, however, Sullivan’s approach is nuanced and flexible. Yet it still begs the question: how can China be squeezed into a US-led order in which America itself has stopped believing?

Biden has not yet given a clear answer to that question because it is so hard. He wants to deprive China of the means to reach military parity with America without provoking a US-China conflict or global economic retrenchment. A full-scale decoupling would make everyone poorer and create an Orwellian world of hostile blocs. A return to the status quo ante — what Clinton was extolling — would accelerate China’s rise.

The middle way between the old Washington consensus and the new is to preserve what was good about the old, rather than to throw out the baby with the bathwater. Of course history did not end. By the same token, however, the future has yet to be written. No power will be its sole author. But America still has an outsized say on whether the script will be dark or light."

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This trend has continued the momentum. This week, China received visits from Gabonese President Ali Bongo Ondimba, Laotian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith and Uruguayan Foreign Minister Francisco Bustillo Bonasso.

No doubt the discussions centred around what the blackmailing chinkies were after from their parasitic "Belt and Owed" program.

Chinky ambassador opens mouth wide and inserts foot.

Hong KongCNN —
European countries are demanding answers from Beijing after its top diplomat in Paris questioned the sovereignty of former Soviet republics, in comments that could undermine China’s efforts to be seen as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
The remarks by China’s ambassador to France Lu Shaye, who said during a television interview that former Soviet countries don’t have “effective status in international law,” have caused diplomatic consternation, especially in the Baltic states.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia would be summoning Chinese representatives to ask for clarification, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis confirmed on Monday.
Officials including from Ukraine, Moldova, France and the European Union also all hit back with criticisms of Lu’s comments.
Lu made the remarks in response to a question whether Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, was part of Ukraine.
“Even these ex-Soviet countries don’t have an effective status in international law because there was no international agreement to materialize their status as sovereign countries,” Lu said, after first noting that the question of Crimea “depends on how the problem is perceived” as the region was “at the beginning Russian” and then “offered to Ukraine during the Soviet era.”

Chinese ambassador sparks European blowback over post-Soviet states comment | CNN

Now the lying little bastards will claim he never said it.

China Embassy Removes Remarks About Ex-Soviet States

• Transcript of controversial remarks deleted off WeChat account

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Now the lying little bastards will claim he never said it.

Xi is actually a fat bastard panda mother fuck.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Xi is actually a fat bastard panda mother fuck.

How dare you insult Mr. Shithole.

Originally Posted by OhOh

China 19:19, 26-Apr-2023

Xi Jinping says China to send special envoy to mediate Ukraine crisis

To apologise for the pro-Russian horseshit the idiot came out with the other day.

Given that the chinkies are the ones helping out the illegal invasion, that's possibly the most stupid fucking cartoon you've ever posted.

China Crushing U.S To Become Next Global SuperPower !!!

Jeffery Sachs

28 Apr 2023

Xi Calls for Population-Plan Revamp as China’s Demographic Crisis Builds

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on top officials to step up efforts to maintain an “appropriate” birthrate and population level, after data in recent months showcased an intensifying demographic headwind for the world’s second-largest economy.

In the first meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission since October’s leadership reshuffle, Xi highlighted trends including a low birthrate, aging population and divergence across regions.


“We must fully understand and properly treat the new situations of our country’s demographic development,” Xi said, according to a readout posted on the central government’s website. It’s critical for China to focus on improving its population quality while keeping up an appropriate birthrate and population size, he said.


Xi called for improving Beijing’s population-development plans to meet the new situation. The message follows recent confirmation that China’s population started shrinking in 2022, for the first time in six decades — the latest milestone in a worsening demographic challenge.


The country’s workforce has fallen by more than 41 million people in the past three years, reflecting the coronavirus pandemic’s toll on the economy and a decline in the working-age population.


“The declining labor force and aging population is a reality rather than a problem, and there is no easy solution,” said Neo Wang, Evercore ISI’s New York-based managing director for China Research. “It takes 18 years to grow a worker. Focus has to be on lifting productivity. ”


Meanwhile, China has been overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation, according to United Nations data released last month.

Top officials at Friday’s meeting also promised to accelerate the building of a “full-fledged, advanced and secure” modern industrial system to maintain strategic advantage in future development and international competition, according to the statement.


Ensuring industrial security should be “the priority of priorities,” and more efforts should be made to achieve core technology breakthroughs, it said.


Premier Li Qiang attended the meeting as the commission’s deputy director. Xi’s chief of staff Cai Qi and Ding Xuexiang, a vice premier, were also present as members of the group.

Xi Calls for Population-Plan Revamp as China’s Demographic Crisis Builds

So Mr. Shithole wants them to breed more despite them already being a cancer on the planet.

Great.

Originally Posted by misskit

Xi highlighted trends including a low birthrate, aging population and divergence across regions.

Divergence across regions? What's that about? Is it something to do with ethnic minorities having more babies than the pure Han?

Originally Posted by Shutree

Divergence across regions? What's that about? Is it something to do with ethnic minorities having more babies than the pure Han?

He probably means he wants chinkies to take over the areas currently occupied by minorities.

Originally Posted by Shutree

Is it something to do with ethnic minorities having more babies than the pure Han?

IIRC some rural/ethnic groups were and remain exempt from the China "one child" rule. Aledgedly there were 40+ loopholes available.

Europe will be less confused, entangled if it listens to what China says: Global Times editorial

By Global Times


Published: May 11, 2023 11:54 PM

"Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang is on his visit to Germany, France, and Norway from May 8 to 12 at the invitation of their foreign ministers. Against the backdrop of European leaders' visits to China in recent months, Qin's visit to Europe further implements the consensus reached by China-Europe head-of-state diplomacy and continues to strengthen dialogue and trust between the two sides. This signal is clear and welcomed by the world, as EU Ambassador to China Jorge Toledo said that Qin's visit was a welcome step for both China and Europe.

The main theme of Qin's visit is to further promote bilateral practical cooperation. His visit to Germany mainly aimed to prepare for the seventh round of inter-governmental consultation between the two countries. This will be the first offline inter-governmental consultations between the two sides since the outbreak of the pandemic and it is also the first comprehensive engagement between the two countries' new governments, the great significance of which is self-evident. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz responded positively, saying that he is very much looking forward to the consultation and Germany is making active preparations. In addition, the two sides agreed to step up coordination in multilateral fields and strengthen cooperation on COP28 and biodiversity.

The situation is the same in France, where the two sides mentioned they should keep close high-level exchanges and expand exchanges at all levels. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna also reiterated her stance of attaching great importance to economic relations with China and not engaging in bloc confrontation. Next year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Norway, and it is believed that Qin's visit to Norway will be a journey to consolidate mutual trust and promote cooperation.

Currently, Europe is undergoing a big reflection and debate on its perception and strategy toward China. Various arguments and opinions are being fiercely contested. At this time, China's new foreign minister arrived in Europe to make a clear, firm, and targeted clarification regarding China's stance, attitude, and interests. This is equivalent to injecting a powerful positive energy into this great debate and allowing Europeans to feel China's sincerity and goodwill at close range. This helps Europe to establish a correct understanding of China and maintain rationality without going off course. Using pragmatic cooperation to add value to bilateral relations, while rationally and calmly addressing the divergences between the two sides, and timely controlling damage in specific fields, this is what mature diplomacy should look like.

During Qin's visit to Europe, the German government approved China COSCO Shipping Corporation's purchase of stake in a Hamburg port-based container terminal on May 10. The German side eventually green-lighted the project, which is a relatively positive signal for both China-Germany and China-Europe relations. However, it's exposed by the media recently that the European Commission proposed sanctions against seven Chinese companies for their alleged sales of equipment that could be used to support Russia's military operations against Ukraine. A Chinese diplomat wrote on social media that "while China is making every effort to promote peace which is in Europe's interest, Europe gives a stab in the back in return, bullying China on economic issues. Can't understand what Europe is up to." More accurately, it is some anti-China forces in Europe that are stabbing China in the back, and this is not the first time they have done so.

From these two issues, we can see the duplicity and complexity of Europe's China policy. The friendly and rational forces in Europe toward China are in a defensive position now. Some Europeans already have deep misunderstandings and misconceptions about China, and they are further influenced by the toxic public opinion in the US and the West today, which further worsens the atmosphere of China-Europe relations.

In summary, there are four main problems in the China-Europe relationship: an unnecessary "Ukraine knot," a dangerous impulse of the Europe to interfere in China's internal affairs, especially the Taiwan question, wrong judgment that deems the interdependence of China-Europe economic and trade relations as a "risk," and submission and dependence on Washington's comprehensive containment strategy against China. Qin focused on these four issues in his communication with the European side, and it is worth mentioning that all the four issues are rooted in some Europeans' one-sided, narrow, and paranoid subjective cognition. As long as Europeans change their perspective and view these issues from a strategic and long-term angle, they can be easily resolved. Some Europeans are currently in an blind alley, and it may be difficult to persuade them to turn back if they aren't taught some lessons. We may need more patience to wait for them to wake up on their own.

The public also pays attention to Qin's positive response to Europe's "de-risking" approach against China. "If the EU seeks to decouple from China in the name of 'de-risking,' it will decouple from opportunities, cooperation, stability, and development," Qin said. Although China-Europe relations have encountered headwinds for a period of time, from January to March, French and German investment in China increased by 635.5 percent and 60.8 percent respectively compared to the same period last year. This is the power of the law. Without political interference from some Europeans, Europe will become more independent and secure due to prosperous foreign cooperation. China-Europe relations need more confidence and ambition, and setting bottom lines and red lines should not be the goal of both sides. China-Europe relations can also have "no limits." If Europe truly listens to China's words, it will be less confused and entangled."

Europe will be less confused, entangled if it listens to what China says: Global Times editorial - Global Times

Exclusive: Anonymous official reveals details of Wang Yi's 10-hour-long meeting with Sullivan

By Bai Yunyi and Liu Xin

Published: May 12, 2023 06:10 PM Updated: May 12, 2023 10:14 PM


"The Chinese side emphasized that the Bali meeting between the Chinese and US top leaders was successful and constructive, and pointed out the direction for the development of China-US relations. However, the US side overreacted and abused force in the unmanned civilian airship incident and lessons must be learned from the incident, a senior Chinese official who is familiar with the meeting but asked for anonymity, told the Global Times on Friday.

During the meeting, the Chinese side also noted that the correct way for China and the US to get along is mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation. The overall China-US relationship cannot be simply defined by "competition" and the US cannot ask for communication and dialogue while harming China's interests, according to the senior official.

The Chinese side noted that what the US should do is to establish a correct understanding of China, prevent strategic misjudgments, abandon the Cold War mentality, stop containment and suppression, stop engaging in zero-sum games, return to rationality and pragmatism, and meet China halfway to promote the stabilization of China-US relations, the source said.

Wang Yi comprehensively expounded China's solemn position on the Taiwan question, emphasizing that the Taiwan question is the core of China's core interests, the bedrock of the political foundation of China-US relations, and the first redline that cannot be crossed, according to the source.

Wang also noted that the top priority at the moment is that the US should earnestly abide by the one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-US joint communiqués, and stop interfering in China's internal affairs.

The US side stated that the US' one-China policy has not changed and does not support "Taiwan independence," "two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan," according to the source.

The anonymous senior official also unveiled that China also requires the US to remove unreasonable restrictions and obstruction on China-US people-to-people and cultural exchanges, and to work with China to carry out more exchanges between various sectors of the two countries and enhance mutual understanding between the peoples.

The two sides also exchanged views on the Ukraine issue. The Chinese side emphasized that China is not a party to the Ukraine crisis, and has always maintained an objective, fair and calm stance, actively promoting peace talks, and has been urging all parties not to add fuel to the fire. Complying with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be universally applicable without imposing double standards."

Exclusive: Anonymous official reveals details of Wang Yi's 10-hour-long meeting with Sullivan - Global Times

I'm amazed Mr. Shithole thinks Europe believes any of the shit the chinkies spew.

Who would have thought the filthy, money grubbing chinkies would be working with Mexican cartels.

What is clear is that Chinese actors play a significant role in laundering money for Mexican cartels through informal financial and trade networks. Of particular note is the rise of payment in kind: in exchange for drug precursors, Mexican cartels provide Chinese traffickers with coveted black-market products, especially timber and protected wildlife. The potential damage to economic sustainability, food security, and global biodiversity is severe—not to mention the potential for the global spread of zoonotic diseases.

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