Ukraine war mega thread

[sabang]

I'm on a roll tonight! But the smiley isn't really warranted. The economic outlook is grim. An excerpt from David Stockman, linked for full article-



But truly, the threat of secondary sanctions is a road too far. They underscore the futility of economic sanctions as a substitute for the exercise of overt military power. That is, they enable the current generation of Washington nomenklatura to act as the bully boy and Spanker-in-Chief in neighborhoods all around the world without committing American blood and treasure to their pointless endeavors to force the world to conform to Washington’s commands.


Needless to say, economic sanctions don’t work – they just boomerang back to their issuers as well as innocent third parties all around the planet.


These harms, in turn, cause injured parties to strike out with their own economic counter-measures. For instance, now that Russia has cut off fertilizer exports in response to Washington’s sanctions, Argentina, one of the world major grain exports, has undertaken to cap its own corn and wheat exports in order to shield its people from soaring global food prices.


That action, of course, will only exacerbate the spiraling cost of feeds and foods.


Or consider the foolishness of Washington ban on Russia’s airlines. The latter, in turn, has closed its skies to US and allied aviation, which means that US/Asia and Asia/Europe flights will have to circumnavigate Russian airspace at great expense and fuel consumption, driving global aviation fuel prices still higher.


In response to the US ban on the shipment of commercial aviation parts to Russia, in turn, Putin signed a law on Monday allowing foreign-owned aircraft to be re-registered as Russian for domestic use, according to state-run news agency TASS.


That amounts to confiscation of leased aircraft, which, in turn, are backed by tens of billions of debt issued by European and US aircraft leasing companies.


That’s right. Russian airlines would have the ability to seize and operate aircraft leased by companies that are no longer operating in Russia owing to sanctions imposed by the US, yet Russian airlines have almost 780 leased jets, with 515 leased from abroad.


These latter are certain to trigger defaults and related cross-defaults, thereby further roiling international debt markets. Essentially, Washington has shit-canned the sanctity of contracts in order to spank Putin.


Likewise, Washington’s Sanctions War may bring the demise of the petro-dollar regime in place since 1973. In fact, one of the core staples of the past four decades, and an anchor propping up the dollar’s so-called reserve status, was a global financial system based on the petrodollar: That is, an arrangement under which oil producers would sell their product to the US (and the rest of the world) for dollars, which would then recycle the proceeds back into dollar-denominated assets, especially US treasury and corporate debt. This explicitly propped-up the USD as the world reserve currency, by creating artificial dollar demand and in the process backstopped the standing of the US as the world’s undisputed financial superpower.


Now the WSJ is out with a blockbuster report that “Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan.” Such a move could obviously cripple not only the petrodollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia, but also undermine the entire dollarized global financial system. Yet under the latter Washington has relentlessly taken advantage of the dollar’s reserve status by printing as many dollars as needed to fund runaway Federal spending for the past several decades.


These Saudi talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have apparently been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom.


China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports, and if priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and could set the Chinese currency on a path to becoming a global petroyuan reserve currency rivaling the dollar.


In any event, a world economy which fragments into multiple currency and protectionist trading blocs will be inherently less efficient and prosperous than one based on wide-open, unimpeded peaceful private commerce.


So the question recurs. What profound purpose justifies this unfolding mayhem?


Simple. The Washington Sullivanistas are a clear and present danger to the peace and prosperity of the world. Had they not insisted on extending NATO to Russia’s very doorstep and overthrown the Russian-friendly government in February 2014 that had been honestly elected by a divided Ukrainian electorate, there would have been no Ukrainian civil war funded by Washington aid and arms and no Russian invasion and the treacherous global crisis now unfolding, jeopardizing the very future of mankind.


As we indicated yesterday, this crisis is only going to get far worse. That’s because once Ukraine’s unhinged government realizes that the NATO cavalry isn’t coming and pivots to the logical alternative of capitulating to Moscow’s demands, the Washington War Party will go berserk with vastly intensified global economic warfare.


Yet just note where that next phase will start. This morning’s PPI made it official: We are now in double digit inflation-land. In fact, the PPI for Final Demand Finished Goods came in at 14.1% on a Y/Y basis, the highest gain since 14.7% at the peak of the inflation blow-off in September 1980.

Washington's Hawks Are About To Wreck Global Commerce - Antiwar.com Original

[David48atTD]

^ ^^^ both WALLS OF TEXT which doesn't invite reading.

... but I will later after the Footy is finished

[bsnub]

From your own article but not predictable by you for sure.

I noticed how that comment went over your head.

both WALLS OF TEXT which doesn't invite reading.

This is the news thread, so maybe you would be better off in the children books section, noobie dave?

[sabang]

And of course China and Saudi are in talks to denominate Saudi oil exports to China in Yuan. You don't believe this is significant? probably not.

[David48atTD]

This is the news thread, so maybe you would be better off in the children books section, noobie dave?

Well Snubbs, I'll have the Executive Summaries on my desk in the morning.

Thanks



... and, just quietly, neither posts are news, they are opinion pieces which should be in the other thread.

Mods ... clean-up in Aisle 9 please.

[sabang]

both WALLS OF TEXT which doesn't invite reading.

What would you have me do David? Heavyweight stuff doesn't really lend itself to being caricaturised. Sad, but true.
(if I've done a woopsy sorry Mods, I'll have to leave you to move, seeing as there are other posters comments too. HTG's Editorial threw me)

[bsnub]

Mods ... clean-up in Aisle 9 please.

Good point, so do your job.

[harrybarracuda]

And of course China and Saudi are in talks to denominate Saudi oil exports to China in Yuan. You don't believe this is significant? probably not.

They can use camels if they feel like it.

Why do you think it matters.

[bsnub]

What would you have me do David? Heavyweight stuff doesn't really lend itself to being caricaturised. Sad, but true.

It is after ten pm in Melbourne and Sabs is already in interwebs tough guy mode.

[David48atTD]

And of course China and Saudi are in talks to denominate Saudi oil exports to China in Yuan. You don't believe this is significant?

Yes, I agree ... significant.

To control global trade as the reserve currency is a tremendous boost to the USA.

But the Yuan won't be accepted because it's open to political manipulation, neither the Ruble (snicker)

But the occasional trade in the Yuan ... certainly doable.

[David48atTD]

BTW, Storm won in Golden Point ... ripper of a game.

Had my Boys yelling and cheering (at the TV)

... but I digress.

[David48atTD]

It is after ten pm in Melbourne and Sabs is already in interwebs tough guy mode.

I thought that 'Sabs' is in Adelaide, (snubbs, think of Texas for contextual positioning) which is a coincidence because I'm enjoying an Adelaide Hills Sauvignon Blanc

[bsnub]

I thought that 'Sabs' is in Adelaide

He is, but isn't that the same time zone?

snubbs, think of Texas for contextual positioning

That would make sense.

[bsnub]

And of course China and Saudi are in talks to denominate Saudi oil exports to China in Yuan. You don't believe this is significant? probably not.

Good god, and you claim to have worked in finance?



What happened to you? Most of the rest of us are raking.

It will never happen.

[sabang]

You didn't read the Stockman post, did you?

Now the WSJ is out with a blockbuster report that “Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan.” Such a move could obviously cripple not only the petrodollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia, but also undermine the entire dollarized global financial system. Yet under the latter Washington has relentlessly taken advantage of the dollar’s reserve status by printing as many dollars as needed to fund runaway Federal spending for the past several decades.

These Saudi talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have apparently been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom.

China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports, and if priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and could set the Chinese currency on a path to becoming a global petroyuan reserve currency rivaling the dollar.

In any event, a world economy which fragments into multiple currency and protectionist trading blocs will be inherently less efficient and prosperous than one based on wide-open, unimpeded peaceful private commerce.

[sabang]

Carlton beat Richmond in our local sport- ripper game, and an upset.
^ We are half an hour behind Sydney & Melbourne. One of the worlds relatively few half hour time zones.

[harrybarracuda]

You didn't read the Stockman post, did you?

And you think Saudi Arabia would risk having to trust Russia or the chinkies with its defence?

[Backspin]

Whether this will be used to depict civilian deaths or Russian deaths, who knows. But it will probably make it into one of Bsnots video links about the war

[Backspin]

You didn't read the Stockman post, did you?

This is rather provocative by Saudi and China. Its concerning because it might cause the US to do something stupid in Europe.

[baldrick]

Its concerning because it might cause the US to do something stupid in Europe.

the administration has performed very well so far , so why would you expect it now ?

what you will see now is europe and the uk coming to a deal with iran about supplying oil/gas to europe , and the US will have plausible deniability with the saudi

you should maybe look up where the big shell announcement of a discovery in 2012 was

[misskit]

Russian Activists and Journalists Targeted After Putin’s Call for Purge of ‘Traitors’

Russian activists and journalists discovered threatening messages painted on their apartment doors on after Vladimir Putin delivered a speech calling for a “self-cleansing of society” from “scum and traitors.”


“Don’t betray your country, bitch,” read one message painted in white on the front door of a journalist’s apartment.


Anna Loiko, a journalist for the opposition news site SOTA, which has closely covered protests against the war in Ukraine, was among those targeted. Activists Dmitry Ivanov and Olga Misik also received such messages, which featured the symbol “Z” that Russia has tried to use to drum up support domestically for its all-out war against Ukraine.

PICS Russian Activists and Journalists Targeted After Putin’s Call for Purge of ‘Traitors’

[misskit]

How Russian Disinformation Goes From the Kremlin to QAnon to Fox News

In the information era, a lie can make its way around the world and, in short order, make millions of people sympathetic to an unjustifiable war of aggression.


False claims that Russia has been targeting sinister U.S.-backed “biolabs” in Ukraine were popularized among conspiratorial American audiences by QAnon believers shortly after Russia launched its invasion in late February. Mainstream Republican voices have since dragged the old Russian propaganda at its roots across the forefront of the U.S. political stage.


The Kremlin has for years accused the U.S. of operating a shady network of biolabs in foreign countries conducting dangerous experiments, including some in Ukraine that have allegedly targeted unsuspecting locals. Though the U.S. does support medical and biodefense labs across the former Soviet Union, there is no evidence to support claims that the labs are used to develop bioweapons programs. China has peddled similar propaganda; it tag-teamed with Russia last year to rehash an old accusation that COVID-19 may have been manufactured in U.S.-supported labs—a narrative that has been nurtured by pro-Kremlin sources since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.


Kremlin media operations and officials resurfaced these lies as Russia was amassing its troops at Ukraine’s northern border, and again in early March (once the invasion was already underway) after its other justifications failed to stick. Government officials in the U.S. have explicitly denied the accusations.

As noted by fact checkers, these propaganda lines were regurgitated by U.S.-audience junk news blogs in late February shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. In early March, a single QAnon supporter launched the false claims on their way to online virality after sharing an image of maps contrasting lab locations with Russian airstrike locations.


And now, the premise of this Kremlin accusation is being asserted and defended by some of the country’s most popular Trump-aligned media personalities, including America’s most-watched cable host Tucker Carlson, former presidential adult son Donald Trump Jr., and beanie-clad “disaffected liberal” YouTube creator Tim Pool. Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (MAGA’s favorite Democrat) got in on the take too, though she has walked back her claims somewhat after drawing criticism.


Reporting for Foreign Policy, journalist Justin Ling explained that these accusations are built off of two far-reaching assumptions: that COVID-19 was manufactured as a bioweapon and that the U.S. would only fund research labs in order to secretly produce such weapons. As thoughtless and evidence-free as those base claims may be, many online communities that traffic in conspiratorial content accepted those assumptions years ago. Whether they choose to blame billionaire George Soros, the “deep state,” or the “New World Order,” assertions that the coronavirus was made as a bioweapon to justify controlling the world’s population are abundantly common in anti-vaccine and other conspiratorial communities online.


Those claims about COVID-19’s origins and the virus’ supposed sinister utility to the world’s elite have fueled years of anti-mask, anti-mandate, and anti-vaccine activism in the U.S., including at protests and in the harassment of public health officials. COVID conspiracy theories’ ability to unify swaths of the anti-establishment GOP has established itself as a bridge uniting the furthest excesses of conservative politics with the most mainstream of its culture war causes.


It’s not evident that Russia initially formulated this specific grain of wartime propaganda for conspiratorial American audiences. Its lies about biolabs in Ukraine were likely circulated anew among domestic Russian audiences this year to build fear and support for its hostility toward Ukraine.

Regardless, those lies were turned into grist for the mills of the conspiracy-brained internet and partisan U.S. media programs that gleefully regurgitate such fare. That’s a win for the Kremlin’s war propaganda machine.


Eto Buziashvili, a research associate at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (where we both work), has worked on a team tracking biolab rumors from Russian and Chinese sources for more than two years. She told me that while Russia first used narratives and disinformation related to biolabs to threaten or distract from its own actions, “now the narratives are one of main justifications of the invasion.” She added that Russian military officials have since presented forged documents as additional “proof” of those supposed justifications.


Though some experts and news headlines have already declared Russian propaganda efforts surrounding its invasion of Ukraine a flop, those declarations were perhaps premature.


Junk claims about biolabs have undeniably resonated with conspiratorial American audiences in ways that other Kremlin wartime propaganda has, thus far, failed. As Russian officials rehash the accusations again, folding U.S. audience interpretations of its longstanding narratives further into pro-invasion propaganda efforts, it is clear Moscow has identified the narrative as a potential winner.


Intentionally or not, conspiratorial influencers and audiences have contributed to a Russian disinformation campaign meant to justify its slaughter of Ukrainian civilians. The seeming inability or unwillingness of right-wing media groups to self-police against its excesses and worst tendencies have given the Kremlin a gift it is sure to leverage as it intensifies its campaign to justify those horrors.

How Russian Disinformation Goes From the Kremlin to QAnon to Fox News

[misskit]

Putin Cut Off From Precious Botox Supply Due to War Against Ukraine

Russia’s Vladimir Putin, famous for his rumored reliance on Botox, looks set to be cut off from the popular wrinkle treatment thanks to his war against Ukraine. U.S. drugmaker AbbVie, which owns the cosmetic medicine, announced that it is halting operations inside Russia as a result of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The company joins a growing list of pharmaceutical companies running for the exits after Moscow’s senseless war. U.S. drugmaker Eli Lilly has vowed to keep sending critical medicines for cancer and diabetes to Russia, but it’s stopping sales of “non-essential medicines.” Swiss drugmaker Novartis has also announced it is suspending all investments and marketing activities in Russia, while Pfizer, Bayer, and Abbott Laboratories have cut back spending.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-...raine?ref=home

[misskit]

Russian General in Ukraine Uses Unsecured Phone, Gets Killed


TOP-NOTCH MILITARY?

Russia’s military has already suffered crushing losses in its war against Ukraine, and several top generals have gotten so sloppy they have been using unsecured phones and radios that give away their locations, The New York Times reports, citing U.S. officials. Within three weeks of the war, an estimated 7,000 Russian troops sent into the country by Vladimir Putin have been wiped out, according to U.S. intelligence. As morale sinks, around 20 Russian generals have joined in the fighting, likely to bolster morale among lower-ranking troops. But many of the generals have made themselves easy targets by using unsecured phones and radios, and in one case, that allowed Ukrainian troops to geolocate a Russian general and kill him and his staff.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia...nsecured-phone

[misskit]