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However, from today's Times:
Hopes of deal rise as EU says it is ready to work on legal agreement
Oliver Wright, Policy Editor | Bruno Waterfield, Brussels
Tuesday September 29 2020, 12.01am BST, The Times
Brexit
Michel Barnier and Lord Frost will work on a joint draft version of a free trade agreement this week
OLIVER HOSLET/REUTE
European negotiators have indicated for the first time that they are prepared to start writing a joint legal text of a trade agreement with the UK, before fresh talks begin today.
In a potentially significant move Brussels is understood to have dropped its demand for the two sides to reach a broad agreement on all the outstanding areas of dispute before drafting a final agreement.
In return the UK side is expected to engage in detailed discussions on post-Brexit fishing quotas and the government’s future subsidy policy, two of the biggest remaining sticking points.
Significantly this week’s negotiating round, agreed in advance by Lord Frost and Michel Barnier, has been extended and will include more sessions on the key areas of outstanding difficulty.
There will be 12 hours of negotiation on fishing and 14 hours on so-called level playing field provisions that include subsidy policy. In addition, and for the first time, these will include negotiations on enforcement mechanisms as part of the governance of the agreement. However, government sources urged caution in expecting an imminent breakthrough, warning that “we are still pretty far apart on the difficult things”.
Nevertheless the decision by Brussels to consent to begin work on a legal text suggests an acknowledgement that if a deal is to be ratified by the end of the transition period in December then detailed work needs to begin on it now.
Previously, the UK side saw Mr Barnier’s refusal to begin drafting a legal text — even in uncontroversial areas where there is already agreement — as leverage to get the government to make further concessions. That appears now to have been dropped.
“The most important thing is that we start moving forward on negotiations over texts so we can get further forward and not get timed out,” said a senior British source. “That is a good aim.”
An EU source said Mr Barnier was ready to begin work on a joint draft version of a free trade agreement, known as a “consolidated legal text”, this week but expects Lord Frost to provide more details of fishing quotas and the government’s future subsidy policy.
EU leaders will be holding a Brussels summit on foreign policy questions this Friday and, said diplomatic sources, Mr Barnier might “drop in” to update them after breakfast with Lord Frost.
The EU has also backed away from a threat to suspend trade and security talks because of government legislation breaching the Brexit withdrawal treaty.
Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission vice-president, held talks with Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, in Brussels 48 hours before an EU demand for the government to withdraw elements of the Internal Market Bill in order for negotiations on a free trade agent to continue.
After the meeting, Mr Sefcovic distanced himself from the edict. “I think it’s very important to say, to underline, that it could never be the EU which would cause the end of the negotiation of the future partnership between the EU and UK,” he said, when asked about the deadline. “We are going to proceed with the negotiations. We are going to use every single minute.”
This week’s talks are seen as a critical turning point before a European Council meeting in just over two weeks where EU leaders will discuss developments. In a speech yesterday evening, Charles Michel, president of the council, said that the EU had recovered from the political shock of Brexit.
“Today what is it? It is the UK that faces our quiet strength,” he told a Brussels think tank. “The truth is, the British face a dilemma. What model of society do they want?”
Mr Michel said that key questions revolving about the high level of European regulation and the EU’s strong anti-subsidy free market model would “determine the level of access to our internal market” for Britain.
Q&A
Are we going to get a Brexit deal? Sentiments about the prospects of reaching a Brexit deal have veered wildly. The reality is a bit less excitable and a bit less predictable. The Brexit talks have been making steady, if unspectacular, progress. Lord Frost and those around him say a deal is possible but warn that time is now the biggest obstacle.
What is happening this week? This is the final week of scheduled negotiations. For the first time the teams are expected to begin the process of consolidating a legal text in the areas on which they agree that will form the final agreement. Talks will start today.
Is the government’s threat to tear up elements of the withdrawal agreement in the event of a no deal hindering progress? No. Oddly the round of negotiations that took place the week that the row flared up was one of the more positive in recent months. The EU has walked away from a threat to suspend talks and the government has been at pains to be more conciliatory.
Does that mean the government’s threat worked? Not really. Privately, cooler heads in No 10 acknowledge that they handled the whole issue badly. EU leaders will discuss the threat at a summit on October 15 and will tell the government that if a trade deal is agreed it will never enter into force unless the withdrawal treaty remains intact.
What happens after this week? Assuming this week’s talks are constructive both sides are expected to agree to intensify negotiations prior to the next European summit on October 15.
If a deal is not done at the EU summit is it too late? No. The UK side hope to show enough progress by October 15 to give the talks more time to get a deal over the line. However if, by the end of October, the two sides are still some way apart it is hard to see how an agreement can be finalised in time.