Thread: Brexit - It's Still On!

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

And as we are about to lurch into the fourth year of Brexit, Engerlandia is falling into recession as stagflation becomes ever more entrenched, public expenditure falls further and fiscal drag bites ever deeper into the taxpayer.

Brains have united and published a report called "Ending Stagnation A New Economic Strategy for Britain" , a highly recommended read which is available for download at https://economy2030.resolutionfounda...nal-report.pdf

Foreword

The UK has great strengths, but we are now a decade and a half into a period of
stagnation. The combination of slow growth and high inequality is proving toxic for
low- and middle-income Britain, with living standards under strain well before the
cost of living crisis. The task facing the UK is to urgently embark on a new path.
This, the Final Report of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, sets out what a serious
attempt to end Britain’s relative decline looks like. Constraints and trade-offs are
examined, and hard-headed choices made.

At its core is a strategy to reverse decades of under-investment, by private and
public sectors alike, built on a realistic understanding of Britain’s strengths. In
place of nostalgia we must mobilise behind achievable versions of the future. The
UK is a services superpower, an advantage to be built on in our great second cities.
Good quality jobs must become the deliberate objective – rather than by-product
– of our economic strategy, while our tax and benefit systems must fairly share
rewards and sacrifice, as we target resilient public finances and rebuilt public
services. Economic change must be faced and steered to support widely shared
prosperity, as we wrestle with major shifts from Brexit to the net zero transition.

The Economy 2030 Inquiry is a collaboration between the Resolution Foundation
and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics,
funded by the Nuffield Foundation. This Final Report is underpinned by
the Inquiry’s rigorous analysis, drawing on 70 reports, as well as extensive
conversations with citizens and policy makers across the country. We thank all of
those who have contributed to this work, and in particular our commissioners and
staff for their commitment and engagement over the past two years.
Ending our stagnation will not be easy, but is essential for our shared prosperity,
and it can be done. Now is the time for Britain to move beyond the dead-ends of
boosterism and fatalism.
It is time for a new economic strategy for Britain.
Clive Cowdery & Minouche Shafik
Co-Chairs, The Economy 2030 Inquiry

s.a.

I forecasted all this seven years ago

and 7 years down the line and he is still obsessively scouring the newsfeeds for any shred of evidence that might confirm those ridiculous predictions he is prone to making.

wars, covid, chinese subsidies, local protectionism, environmental taxes, inflation etc. etc. are affecting all western economies in case you hadn't noticed.

the good times are over, and brexit is a very very minor player in it all you ridiculous hate filled old fart ..

German property prices plummet as housing bubble bursts


House prices in Germany dropped by a record 10.2pc in the third quarter in a further sign of the struggles faced by Europe’s largest economy since the pandemic.

It was the fourth consecutive quarter of declines compared to the same time a year earlier, and the biggest since Germany’s statistics office began keeping records in the year 2000.

The drop comes amid the biggest property crisis in decades in Europe’s largest economy.

Konstantin Kholodilin of the German Institute for Economic Research said: “Until 2022, there was a speculative price bubble in Germany, one of the biggest in the last 50 years.

“Prices have been falling ever since. The bubble has burst.”

For years, the property sector in Germany and elsewhere in Europe boomed as interest rates were low and demand strong.

But a sharp rise in rates and costs has put an end to the run, tipping developers into insolvency as bank financing dries up and deals freeze.

It comes as official data showed Germany is the worst performing G7 economy since the pandemic, growing by just 0.3pc.

Britain slipped back behind France to be the next worst performer after downward revisions to growth left the UK on the brink of recession.

Oh dear Tax, try as you might, citing Germany’s faltering economic status as some sort of comfort to Engerlandia is simply heaping one Brexit inspired delusion on all the others.

Any lack of growth, you silly old slack jawed ninny, to be endured by the Krauts comes after such a strong historical base that it would probably constitute a boom time for the unproductive and lazy Engerlanders reliant on credit to pay for their consumer inspired ponzi economy.

Engerlandia is increasingly irrelevant, has no future beyond a trend of low growth with intermittent recessions and is now pretty much sidelined by the world’s power blocs.

At least with Starmer we will have a PM who looks and acts like a Brit and not some Punjabi adornment for a billionaire Indian wife who increasingly resembles a sixth former acting out a leadership fantasy in a faux parliament representing a bunch of middle class chinless wonders and loons.

What a disaster Britain has become. Nothing works, the cost of living has been turbo charged by inflation and incompetent Trussonomics, no one can afford to buy a property, schools are falling down, teachers are resigning in droves, agriculture is in a state of paralysis, the army is fading away, debts both public and private are crippling, public transport is either defunct or exorbitant, the countryside is resembling a bramble patch, the rivers are cesspits, the coastal waters are drains, the roads are in universal disrepair and urban development is distinguished by pavements festooned in weeds where the surfaces are broken and cracked.

Brokendownbrexitbritain.

The reality.

mystic fucking meg.

At least with Starmer we will have a PM who looks and acts like a Brit

like most leftists, his allegiances lie not with the country he seeks to run, but with those who seek to destabilise it.

he is a fence sitter, swayed by whatever vote buying wind is blowing. he is fucking useless.

Starmer acted for extremist Islamist group in bid to overturn ban
Labour leader applied to European Court of Human Rights to reverse Germany's prohibition of Hizb ut-Tahrir

Starmer acted for extremist Islamist group in bid to overturn ban

Starmer tried to win damages for convicted IRA terrorist
Sir Keir, the Labour leader, went to High Court in quest for payout for three men over their treatment after violent prison escape

Sir Keir Starmer tried to win damages for convicted IRA terrorist

Starmer helped free dangerous prisoners including arsonist who terrorised former girlfriend’s family
Violent fire-starter and child sex offender among hardened criminals who Sir Keir as a working barrister persuaded a judge to release

Tax, regurgitating right wing crap spewed out by the fascist untermensch as they wind themselves up for a campaign of pro Brexitory electioneering does not aid your cause. You are the Brown Shirt and it’s 1945…… time to die, Adolph.

Hard cheese: Canada rejects British attempt to secure tariff-free exports | Brexit | The Guardian

^ More failed Brexit promises..

I had a quick check on prices over the last couple of days. More expensive in £s than they are in €s in Europe...and with lower wages.

TBH, I can't understand why people want to come to the UK. Most sensible folk should have left long ago.

The estimates on EU national departures from UK, post Brexit, all seem to confirm a million have quit.

And from where have they replaced this missing labour? Yep, India, Philippines and Africa and recruited on sub minimum wages effectively trafficked by agents for the Home Office and none is ever going back until they have qualified for Indefinite LTR.

It’s a fuck up and it just keeps getting worse, like sepsis.

And the kicker is, two of the biggest blowhards on Brexit, Stanley Johnson, BoJo’s dad, and Nigel Lawson, former Tory Chancellor, have both applied for and obtained their French citizenship, the hypocritical slimeball cvunts.

Originally Posted by Troy

Most sensible folk should have left long ago.

Don't give them good ideas.

But:

céad míle fáilte and ceud mìle fàilte

Britain to outgrow Germany for years to come as eurozone growth engine stutters.


High interest rates risk plunging Europe into recession while UK expected to rebound

Szu Ping Chan
29 December 2023 • 6:39pm

Problems in Germany have been compounded by a slow transition away from cheap Russian gas.

UK growth will outpace Germany and the eurozone for years to come as the Continent faces a deeper recession caused by higher interest rates.

While both the German and UK economies shrank in the three months to September, putting both at risk of recession, analysts at UBS expect Britain to bounce back within a year.

That is unlike Europe’s largest economy. Berlin is already grappling with a budget crisis after Germany’s top court ruled that the government broke the law by using Covid cash to fund net zero spending.

House prices across the country have also suffered double-digit declines.

Problems have been compounded by a slow transition away from cheap Russian gas, which analysts believe will continue to hold back Germany’s recovery next year.


Economists at UBS anticipate growth of 0.5pc next year for the eurozone’s largest economy, followed by a modest acceleration of 0.8pc in 2025.

By contrast, the UK will grow by 0.6pc in 2024 and by 1.5pc the year after.


Confidence in Britain’s revival is reflected in recent bets from traders who believe UK interest rates will fall from 5.25pc to 3.5pc by the end of next year.

Falling inflation could also provide a more favourable economic backdrop for Rishi Sunak, giving him more scope to cut taxes ahead of an expected autumn general election.

As for the eurozone, its growth remains stunted due to issues across its core nations, with UBS predicting that the bloc as a whole will expand by 1.2pc in 2025 – which is behind Britain’s growth rate.

This will be the situation for years to come. As far away as 2026, UBS expects the UK to grow by 1.3pc and the eurozone by 1.1pc, while Germany is the laggard on 0.9pc.

Reinhard Cluse, economist at UBS, said the industrial giant has simply failed to recover following the energy crisis last winter.

He said: “Manufacturing was especially weak, with new orders dragged down by lower Chinese demand.

“In addition, the energy crisis continued to leave its mark as production in energy-intensive industries was much weaker than in other sectors, even as energy prices declined.”


Mr Cluse added that the UK will be boosted by “the recovery in real incomes amid declining inflation”.

Predictions from UBS chimes with the latest predictions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has the UK outgrowing Germany in almost every year until 2028.

The global watchdog also expects Britain’s growth to outpace the eurozone in four of the next five years.

Sanjay Raja, economist at Deutsche Bank, expects the surprise resilience of the UK economy this year will continue into 2024, keeping GDP from shrinking and allowing a firmer recovery to take hold in the second half of the year.

He said: “There are good reasons to be optimistic that we can dodge a recession.

“We will see a sustained period of real positive wage growth in the midst of rapidly falling inflation. That in and of itself will be a boon for households.”

In part, growth has been achieved thanks to falling energy prices, which have given households and businesses a boost as bills have come down.

The surprise jump in migration has also aided GDP, Mr Raja said, as more people means that more economic activity is taking place.

At the same time, the UK has proven surprisingly resilient to higher interest rates, said Mr Raja.

He said: “Household and corporate balance sheets are still very strong.

“It is not just the excess savings picture that gives us some confidence that households and corporates can weather the shocks and headwinds from tighter monetary and fiscal policy.

“It is the fact that debt ratios are still historically pretty low compared to the past couple of decades.”

By contrast, the eurozone is already thought to be in recession.


DAILY TELEGRAPH

happy new year euro loons!

Tax, are you alright?

This is right wing Tory garbage churned out by Tory hacks in a Tory publication in an attempt to persuade voters in the forthcoming May general election that Brexitonia is not a busted economy, the slowest growing in the G7 for the past six years.

Only a fucking idiot would choose to believe this nonsense.

Labour are on course for victory, how could they do worse than the Tories, so the Tory press are combining in a propaganda campaign in the hope they can convince the 17.6 million English who voted for Brexit will vote again for the Tories.

How on earth can you be so stupid, Tax?

Britain is heading to recession, public expenditure is in a parlous state, personal debt is increasing, the entire infrastructure from transport to education is crumbling, nothing works, and the £ remains anchored to its Brexit devalued rate.

Britain is in a mess. Compared to the EU, Britain looks like a third world emerging state with thousands of miles of potholed roads, no reliable public transport, schools collapsing, more food kitchens for the poor than at any time since the Depression, teachers resigning everywhere, and credit card debt ballooning as people sink further into debt and cannot pay for food with cash.

The reality is that real incomes in the UK for the majority are no better than they were before 2008. Growth is marginal and has been for a decade, productivity is in the doldrums and public services across the board are underfunded with local authorities everywhere heading for bankruptcy with a combination of mad Tory inspired investment in ponzi schemes and chronic underfunding since 2010.

Funny how TDs Mystic Meg can make predictions but when UBS and Deutsche Bank (who forgive me for saying have a great deal more nouse than some former barely middling civil servant) make forecasts which don't chime with Sausages views they get called Tory Garbage, i never knew they were paid up members

^^You forgot to mention that all the waterways are full of .

Not unlike Brexiter tories posting here.

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

The estimates on EU national departures from UK, post Brexit, all seem to confirm a million have quit.

Nice try SA. Try 215,000 EU citizens.

How many UK citizens have left the UK?




In the year ending June 2022 approximately 508,000 people emigrated from the United Kingdom, 93,000 of which were British citizens, 215,000 were EU citizens, and a further 200,000 were non-EU citizens.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/283600/emigrations-from-the-united-kingdom-y-on-y/#:~:text=In%20the%20year%20ending%20June,200%2C000 %20were%20non%2DEU%20citizens.

......

Post brexit, not just 1 year Prag.

The 1m figure comes from those who applied to stay, but didn't bother. There were many nore who didn't bother to even apply.

How many UK citizens changed nationality before the brexit deadline? Most did it to get dual nationality, but are unlikely to return. Quite simply, standard of living is far better in many parts of the continent.

I'll let Tax believe the spin, let him think the UK is better off, however, the reality is that the UK is in major decline. It's a miserable place to live and work.

I had an idea to return to look after my dad, but it's just not worth the bother.

Shitty country, shitty government, lovely people.

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Nice try SA. Try 215,000 EU citizens.

How many UK citizens have left the UK?




In the year ending June 2022 approximately 508,000 people emigrated from the United Kingdom, 93,000 of which were British citizens, 215,000 were EU citizens, and a further 200,000 were non-EU citizens.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/283600/emigrations-from-the-united-kingdom-y-on-y/#:~:text=In%20the%20year%20ending%20June,200%2C000 %20were%20non%2DEU%20citizens.

I believe Troy has already corrected you in misunderstanding my post.

As I said, since the 2016 pogrom began against our EU community, over a million EU nationals have quit Brexitonia.
Its a fucking disaster on so many levels Prag but you seem resolutely rooted in denial, and that ain't a fucking river in Egypt.

The UK has stopped its trade talks with Canada, after nearly two years of negotiations on a post-Brexit agreement.

Trade between the two countries currently takes place under the terms of a deal the UK rolled over from its time as an EU member.

A time-limited agreement allowed the UK to continue to sell cars and cheese without high import taxes.

But talks about extending these as part of a new deal have now broken down.

It marks the first time the UK has formally suspended talks with a trade partner since formally leaving the EU trading regime in 2021.

It will also mean the UK's trading terms with Canada will now be worse than when it was part of the EU's deal with the country.

UK halts trade negotiations with Canada over hormones in beef ban - BBC News

And the BREXIT wins just keep on coming.

The disaster that just keeps giving.

The stupidity of the English and their right wing loons is positively Trumpian in its degree.

Current exchange rate with the US$ £ = $1.27

Dollar rate on 24 June 2016 £=$1.48

The markets don’t lie.

Brexitonia is royally fucked and it ain’t going to get better.

Even lacklustre Britain is outperforming failing EU economies

Tying ourselves to a stumbling bloc cannot be the best way forward

JULIAN JESSOP
26 January 2024 • 10:30am
Julian Jessop


The German economy is stagnating. Last year was bad enough. The first official estimates suggest that output (measured by GDP) shrank by 0.3pc over 2023 as a whole – a full year recession. Unfortunately, the omens for 2024 are no better.



Two leading business polls this week are already indicating that Germany is mired in recession. The latest HCOB PMI survey, compiled by S&P Global, signalled that activity in services and manufacturing was still contracting in January. In contrast, the equivalent UK PMI index rose to a seven-month high and has been above the ‘neutral’ 50 level for three successive months.

The leading national survey, compiled by Germany’s ifo institute, also showed that sentiment among German companies deteriorated further at the start of the year. The weakness was broadly based, with retail trade and construction under the cosh too. The ifo’s own ‘Business Cycle Traffic Lights’ model is flashing red, for recession.

So, what’s gone wrong? Part of the problem is that Germany’s industrial model is broken. In a nutshell, the manufacturing sector had become too reliant on cheap Russian oil and gas to make expensive goods to sell to China. The energy crisis and the weakness in global demand has therefore hit Germany particularly hard. Manufacturing production has been trending down for years.

But there is a lot more to it. The German auto sector has only just started to recover from a series of shocks since 2016, including the emissions scandals, the enforced transition to electric vehicles, flawed ‘green energy’ policies, and the supply disruptions caused by the pandemic.

German car production did at least rebound by 18pc last year (matching growth in the UK). But it was still 12pc below its pre-Covid level. And now, the disruption to the flow of imported components through the Red Sea threatens to put the brakes on again.

Both monetary and fiscal policy are playing a role too. It is no surprise that the weakest sector is construction, which is particularly sensitive to higher costs and higher interest rates. German house prices have already fallen by about 10pc in a year.

At the same time, Germany’s exceptionally strict budget rules allow little room for government spending or tax cuts to take up the slack.

German inflation was quicker to fall in the UK, but then so was wage growth, meaning that the squeeze on real incomes was similar. UK consumers can at least look forward to further falls in inflation, some additional help in the March Budget, and bigger cuts in interest rates.

The upshot is that the German economy looks set to contract again this year. In contrast, the EY Item Club is now forecasting that the UK economy will grow by 0.9pc this year, rising to 1.8pc in 2025.

It is still touch and go whether the UK slipped into the shallowest of recessions at the end of 2023. My guess is that strength in private services was just about enough to offset the weakness of retail sales and the impact of NHS strikes. Either way, though, things are already looking up.

Greece to outpace Germany


Line chart with 4 lines.
Annual GDP growth
View as data table, Greece to outpace Germany
The chart has 1 X axis displaying values. Data ranges from 2000 to 2028.
The chart has 1 Y axis displaying %. Data ranges from -10.1 to 8.4.


By this point some may be thinking that this is just indulging in schadenfreude. But no one should take any pleasure from Germany’s economic problems. It remains a key trading partner, with the crisis at the heart of the euro area going a long way towards explaining the renewed weakness of UK exports to the EU.

Others might say that it is unfair to compare the UK with Germany alone, given the particular problems that the latter is facing. Indeed, those wanting to talk up the relative performance of ‘Brexit Britain’ are often accused of “cherry-picking” weak data from Germany.

However, this misses two points. First, Germany is still the most important economy in the euro area, accounting for around a third of the bloc’s GDP (excluding Ireland’s dodgy data). Its problems have dragged down neighbours, notably Austria and the Netherlands. They have already been joined in recession by Denmark, Luxembourg, Sweden and (with the same caveat about the GDP data) Ireland.

Second, while Germany may be the ‘sick man of Europe’, other large EU economies are faring little better. In particular, France’s PMI data for January were even worse, with the manufacturing output index at a 44-month low, and fiscal space has been exhausted there too.

Both Germany and France are struggling with social unrest, including protests from farmers and others worried about immigration and the cost of living. And between them, the two economies account for around half of euro area GDP.

Some other EU members with different economic models are doing better, notably Italy, Spain and Greece – all of which have benefited from the recovery in tourism and related services after Covid. However, cracks are creeping in here too.

Italy’s economic growth has also been flattered by an unsustainable construction boom, fuelled by government subsidies and tax breaks.

Spain benefited last year from exceptionally low inflation due to relatively aggressive government intervention to keep energy prices down – something only a small economy could have done without distorting the entire European energy market. With the price of natural gas now much lower, that advantage has faded.

Whatever our own economic challenges – and there are many – the UK is at least starting the year on the front foot, while the EU is stumbling. Tying us ever closer to a failing economic bloc surely cannot be the best way forward.

Julian Jessop (@julianhjessop)
© Telegraph Media Group Limited 2024

Well, DB is on strike this week (Wednesday -> Monday) and so are the UK Railways. So, I guess the countries have something in common.

Yes. Largely civil servants working in Key industries who already have gold plated pensions and feel entitled enough to strike for more whilst people struggle to get into work or find themselves waiting 6 months for a cancer diagnosis and 2 years for treatment