Thread: Brexit - It's Still On!

seeking o'sylum

The Irish and Dutch have suspended their AZ vaccine programme because there has been a cluster of four deaths

you bumbling argumentative oaf.

the uk has administered upwards of 11 million oxford jabs and its recipients are hardly dying in the streets from strokes.

normally there are over 5000 cases of blood clots a year in the uk, and that figure has not shown an increase recently.
you should also know that the inflammation caused by covid is a known cause of blood clotting therefore not having the vaccine will result in a higher risk of blood clots that not having the vaccine.

the european regulator of medicines, the british regulator - the medicines and healthcare products regulatory agency (MHRA), the world health organisation (and astrazeneca) have all said the vaccine is safe.

you gormless pikeys are just kissing eu arse as per usual.


There's no proof the Oxford vaccine causes blood clots. So why are people worried?

David Spiegelhalter

It’s human nature to spot patterns in data. But we should be careful about finding causal links where none may exist


Mon 15 Mar 2021 07.00 GMT

Stories about people getting blood clots soon after taking the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine have become a source of anxiety among European leaders.

After a report on a death and three hospitalisations in Norway, which found serious blood clotting in adults who had received the vaccine, Ireland has temporarily suspended the jab. Some anxiety about a new vaccine is understandable, and any suspected reactions should be investigated. But in the current circumstances we need to think slow as well as fast, and resist drawing causal links between events where none may exist.

As Ireland’s deputy chief medical officer, Ronan Glynn, has stressed, there is no proof that this vaccine causes blood clots. It’s a common human tendency to attribute a causal effect between different events, even when there isn’t one present: we wash the car and the next day a bird relieves itself all over the bonnet. Typical. Or, more seriously, someone is diagnosed with autism after receiving the MMR vaccine, so people assume a causal connection – even when there isn’t one. And now, people get blood clots after having a vaccine, leading to concern over whether the vaccine is what caused the blood clots.

Call it luck, chance or fate – it’s difficult to incorporate this into our thinking. So when the European Medicines Agency says there have been 30 “thromboembolic events” after around 5m vaccinations, the crucial question to ask is: how many would be expected anyway, in the normal run of things?

We can try a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation. Deep vein thromboses (DVTs) happen to around one person per 1,000 each year, and probably more in the older population being vaccinated. Working on the basis of these figures, out of 5 million people getting vaccinated, we would expect significantly more than 5,000 DVTs a year, or at least 100 every week. So it is not at all surprising that there have been 30 reports.

It would be so much easier if we had a group of people exactly like those being vaccinated but who didn’t get jabbed. This would tell us how many serious events we could expect to happen to people that were the result of sheer bad luck.

Fortunately, we do have such a group. In the trials that led to the vaccines being approved in the UK, volunteers were randomly allocated to receive either the active vaccine or a dummy injection. Everyone then reported any harms they experienced, but crucially nobody knew if they had received the real stuff or an inert injection. By comparing the numbers of reports from the two groups, we can see how many “reactions” were really owing to the active ingredients, and how many were linked to the vaccination process, or would have happened anyway.

Some kind of adverse events were reported by 38% of those receiving the real vaccine but, rather remarkably, 28% of those who received the dummy also reported a side-effect. This shows that the vaccination process itself causes about two-thirds of all the reported harm. Of more than 24,000 participants, fewer than 1% reported a serious adverse event, and of these 168 people, slightly more had received the dummy than the active vaccine. So there was no evidence of increased risk from taking the AstraZeneca vaccine. The Pfizer trials had similar results, with more mild or moderate adverse events in the vaccine group but almost identical numbers of serious events.

Trials are short and comparatively small, and tend to include healthy people, so we need to collect real-world data as the vaccines are rolled out. In the UK, adverse reactions are reported using the “yellow card” system, which dates back to the days when doctors filled in yellow cards to report side-effects.

Up to 28 February, around 54,000 yellow cards have been reported for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, from around 10 million vaccinations given (the Pfizer vaccine has a slightly lower rate). So for both vaccines, the overall reporting rate is around three to six reports per 1,000 jabs. That means a far greater number of side-effects are reported in the trials than through the yellow card system (of course, one factor in this underreporting may be the yellow card website, which appears designed for medical professionals rather than patients experiencing side-effects).



The vast majority of the side-effects reported through the yellow card system and in randomised trials are reports of direct reactions to the jab, such as a sore arm, or subsequent general flu-like symptoms of headache, tiredness, fever and so on, which subside in a few days.

The most serious problem is anaphylactic reactions, and the advice is not to inject anyone with a previous history of allergic reactions to either a prior dose of the vaccine or its ingredients.

So far, these vaccines have shown themselves to be extraordinarily safe. In fact, it’s perhaps surprising that we haven’t heard more stories of adverse effects. There could well be some extremely rare event that is triggered by Covid-19 vaccines, but there is no sign of this yet. We can just hope that this message gets through to those who are still hesitant because of the misinformation that has been spread about the supposed harm of vaccines, and the unhelpful comments made by some European politicians.

Will we ever be able to resist the urge to find causal relationships between different events? One way of doing this would be promoting the scientific method and ensuring everyone understands this basic principle. Testing a hypothesis helps us see which hunches or assumptions are correct and which aren’t. In this way, randomised trials have proved the effectiveness of some Covid treatments and saved vast numbers of lives, while also showing us that some overblown claims about treatments for Covid-19, such as hydroxychloroquine and convalescent plasma, were incorrect.

But I don’t think we can ever fully rationalise ourselves out of the basic and often creative urge to find patterns even where none exist. Perhaps we can just hope for some basic humility before claiming we know why something has happened.

David Spiegelhalter is chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge

There's no proof the Oxford vaccine causes blood clots. So why are people worried? | Vaccines and immunisation | The Guardian

just as well the uk wasnt part of the eu's ineffectual vaccine procurement programme or their abysmal roll out arrangements.

like brexit, the pandemic is also a long game and we will see whose strategy proves to be the best.

the tortoise or the hare.



Third Covid wave sweeps across EU and forces new restrictions

New variants blamed as Italy, France, Germany and Poland see infection rates surge


Robin McKie
Sun 14 Mar 2021 10.45 GMT

A third wave of the Covid pandemic is now advancing swiftly across much of Europe. As a result, many nations – bogged down by sluggish vaccination campaigns – are witnessing sharp rises in infection rates and numbers of cases.

The infection rate in the EU is now at its highest level since the beginning of February, with the spread of new variants of the Covid-19 virus being blamed for much of the recent increase.

Several countries are now set to impose strict new lockdown measures in the next few days – in contrast to the UK, which is beginning to emerge slowly from its current bout of shop and school closures and sports bans.

In Italy, authorities recorded more than 27,000 new cases and 380 deaths on Friday. “More than a year after the start of the health emergency, we are unfortunately facing a new wave of infections,” said prime minister Mario Draghi. “The memory of what happened last spring is vivid, and we will do everything to prevent it from happening again.”


From Monday most of Italy will be placed under lockdown and people will only be allowed to leave their homes for essential errands. Most shops will be closed, along with bars and restaurants.

In France, authorities have reported a similar grim situation, with health minister Olivier Véran describing the situation in the greater Paris region as tense and worrying. “Every 12 minutes night and day, a Parisian is admitted to an intensive care bed,” he revealed.

President Macron has imposed curfews and other social restrictions in several regions, and many doctors are now pressing him to introduce a national lockdown as a matter of urgency.

In Germany, 12,674 new Covid infections were reported on Saturday, a rise of 3,117 from the previous week, as the head of the country’s infectious disease agency acknowledged that the country was now in the grip of a third wave of Covid-19.

Similarly in Poland, 17,260 new daily coronavirus cases were reported on Wednesday, the highest daily figure since November. New pandemic restrictions are likely to be announced this week, government officials have indicated. Poland already has imposed tight restrictions on social gatherings, most schools are closed, and restaurants can only serve meals for delivery.

In addition, both Hungary and the Czech Republic have reported high infection rates and deaths from Covid and health officials have warned figures are likely to get worse in coming weeks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/14/third-covid-wave-sweeps-across-eu-and-forces-new-restrictions

s.a.

So, the cataclysmic decision not to impose quarantine controls until the end of March 2020, after thousands congregated at football matches and over 100,000 were squeezed together at the Cheltenham races, and the relaxation of such controls that were imposed, against SAGE advice, in the summer and pre-Xmas, had nothing to do with having the highest death rate in Europe but it was the fault of dirty young folk?

lets not forget that the uk with its concurrent pandemic of wokeness and libthink has the eus highest rate of diabetes and obesity.

dare to fatshame a lowrent white bloater and ostracism awaits, fatshame a female bloater and prepare for a never ending campaign of media vilification, fatshame a bame bloater and your fate will be even worse.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

As they do more research, they get more data. That's why they are now saying AZ is best left for 12 weeks between doses.

You and Cyrille have both stated the AZ vaccine but my Dad had the Pfizer vaccine in January. However, I am pleased he managed to get vaccinated as I'm struggling to get one at all here in Germany. I think it could be the end of the Summer before they get their act together....

As for the AZ vaccine, I have now heard a friend of my Dad (in her 50's) had a brain haemorrhage the day after her jab and is recovering in hospital. I haven't seen any UK official figures of severe reactions from the vaccine though.

I think we are heading for a Thalidomide disaster such was the reckless adoption of the AZ vaccine.

Sounds like Tax had the AZ jab.

Joe 90 of course is immune to most external stimuli given his mongol gene.

The worry of course is that the Dept. of Health is suppressing news of thrombosis deaths......

Bozo IS a congenital liar, after all.......

And, for Tax's benefit, the stupid English dross have already had their third wave and are now preparing for the fourth.

Oops, I have just read France, Italy and Germany have all suspended use of the Bozo, possibly, killer vaccine.

Poor old Thailand has committed to 60 million doses of the AZ vaccine with no fallback.

What larks, eh.

Got a headache yet Tax?

The data supplied by AstraZeneca shows there have been 37 reports of blood clots among the 17m people across Europe who have been given the vaccine.

But the key question that has to be asked is whether this is cause or coincidence? Would these clots have happened anyway?

Adverse events like blood clots are monitored carefully, so regulators can assess if they are happening more than they should.

The 37 reports are below the level you would expect. What is more, there is no strong biological explanation why the vaccine would cause a blood clot.

It is why the World Health Organization and European and UK drugs regulators have all said there is no link between blood clots and the vaccine.

Germany and France have supplies of the vaccine going to waste, with both countries having used fewer than half their supplies of the AstraZeneca jab so far. It has left them far more reliant on the Pfizer vaccine than the UK is.

And this is threatening to have deadly consequences. France, Germany and the other major European nations all have higher rates of infection than the UK, and face the prospect of things getting worse before they get better.

Absolute Cockwomblism with a hint of sour Brexit grapes, sound familiar Genticles?

edward jenner

Sounds like Tax had the AZ jab.

i had the pfizer, how about you? ..... oh sorry, looks like you wont be getting one any time soon.

this is pure sour grapes and scaremongering by eu politicians who have had their bubble pricked by the undisputable fact that the uk, by distancing themselves from the eu vaccine sourcing programme and going it alone, have succeeded, nay triumphed, in their rollout whilst the eu, that bastion of bureaucracy and petty politics has floundered and failed.

all the evidence points to the fact that blood clot incidents are no higher than the normal rate that would be expected in the age cohort that is at the moment receiving the vaccine, and in fact far less than blood clot incidents in covid patients.

this vaccine farce will cause many more needless deaths across europe, and all thanks to granny fiddler macrons insistence on the eu adopting "le principe de précaution" and its subsequent adoption into eu legislation.

oh well, if the eu doesnt want the az vaccine and chooses to suspend its use every time there is a random stochastic event, then it just means that there is more available to distribute to countries that understand the statistics and have a real need for a vaccine e.g. the uk, african countries, brazil.

p.s.

the pandemic s.a., like brexit is a long game. you would do well to remember the fable of the tortoise and the hare.

macron and merkel? yesterdays people. and looking at the election predictions just look who is succeeding them, a fucking nazi and a green. bodes well for the future of europe eh?

And Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha became the first person to be inoculated with the AstraZeneca vaccine in the Southeast Asian country on Tuesday after the rollout had been temporarily put on hold.

"Today I'm boosting confidence for the general public," Mr Prayuth said, before he received a shot in his left arm.

how selfless of the man. an example to us all.

so s.a. would you take the az vaccine if offered it, or go the safe route and have the wingman try it out first?

oh happy days.

the precautionary principle.

The precautionary principle was incorporated into EU jurisprudence with the Amsterdam Treaty in 1997 and has become over time the defining ideological feature of an ageing, defensive, status quo society that seems to be afraid of everything.

The precautionary principle has been married with another EU deformity: its slow, rigid, legalistic ethos, and its 190,000 pages of near-irreversible Acquis. The two together have reinforced each other in a paralysing fashion. This regime is perfect for vested interests that know how to play the Brussels game and manipulate the regulatory committees. The zero-risk code can be mobilised to shut out rivals and new technologies that pose a commercial threat.

Is it a coincidence that the EU has become a technology spectator over the last quarter century, while America and China vie for supremacy? Might the precautionary principle be the reason why not a single one of the world’s 20 most valuable tech companies is European, and why the region lags again in artificial intelligence?

It is true that BioNTech’s ground-breaking mRNA vaccine was made in Germany, but its founders are Turkish immigrants and most of the clinical trials took place in the US, Turkey, Brazil, Argentina and South Africa. It is famously difficult to conduct clinical trials in the EU.

It is also true that the precautionary principle has made inroads into Anglo-Saxon societies. But only up to a point. The US, the UK, and Canada still cleave towards the ‘innovation principle’, a preference for trial-and-error and a willingness to risk failure along the way — “nothing ventured, nothing gained”.

You could argue that this philosophy has its roots in English Common Law, a legal culture that loosely permits behaviour unless explicitly forbidden by statute. It is fundamentally different from Napoleonic law that prohibits behaviour unless explicitly authorised - “guilty until proven innocent”. Legal scholars will object to this contrasting schema but it contains a nugget of truth.

The innovation philosophy also has roots in the Baconian Method: the scientific interrogation of facts: the bottom-up empiricism of Francis Bacon and his followers, from Newton through to the Scottish Enlightenment, and beyond. There are great Baconians in Continental Europe of course, but they are not dominant.

What is dominant is the top-down Cartesian Method instilled into the French civil service, and through them into the EU’s machinery. It has fused with the zero-risk totemism of modern Germans to produce a precautionary monster, and a long list of destructive policies. The consequence of banning GMO crops - that is to say, refusing to use technology to tweak genes for better yields - is that you end up using more chemicals instead. Cui bono?

When Germany began to shut down its nuclear plants in a fit of hysteria after Fukushima, heavy industry turned to coal instead, pushing up CO2 emissions and killing measurable numbers of people with toxic particulates.

The vaccine saga has driven home the point that the British people really are different animals from Continental Europeans, a cultural distinction that dates back at least 700 years and one that is amply explored by Cambridge anthropologist Alan MacFarlane in The Origins of English Individualism. This island Sonderweg is not a myth.

Vaccine take-up has been extraordinary. People have been rational and have shown trust in scientific authority, other than a few pockets contaminated by social media. Sang-froid has prevailed. Europe’s alarmism seems completely foreign at this juncture.


The issue is not so much that the UK has had a good vaccine rollout while the EU has stumbled. It is the mental chasm that matters. We can see more clearly than ever that Baconians cannot share a close political, legislative, and judicial union - tantamount to a unitary state - with anti-Baconians in thrall to an extreme form of the precautionary principle. The relationship is unworkable.

Europeans have to ask themselves whether they want to end up in a permanent defensive crouch while the rest of the world moves on. One thing is sure: a zero-risk society is finished as a civilisational force. It is dead.

The French precautionary principle is literally killing Europe


..... and there you have it. in political and cultural terms, we are not like them, and they are not like us. hence brexit.

The eminently satisfying feature of the stupid English whining and wailing over getting their sorry arses kicked out of Spain is the fact the ones doing the most bleating and screeching are those who voted to quit the EU, presumably because in their lumpen idiocy the cretins failed to understand what losing free movement entailed.

Incidentally, whilst on the subject of doddery, senile old farts, wasn't it Tax who wrote two years ago, or more, that I was totally wrong when I said Brexit would mean Brits could not visit the EU for more than 90 days in any 180 day period. I seem to recall that in his bathchair harrumphing scoffery he opined that some formula would be arrived at that would permit British people unrestricted rights of movement in the EU even though these would not be reciprocated to EU citizens visiting the UK.

Brexit folk truly are quite the stupidest folk, don't you think?

Although official stats have around 300,000 Brits resident in Spain, the true figure was more in the region of a million, the majority of whom failed to register in order to evade tax liabilities. The ones who bought properties and businesses who created a de facto but clandestine residence are the ones who are now truly fucked.

The ones who voted to remain have my sympathy, the Brexiteers can wither away and rot in their northern and Essex reaches.