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  1. #18601
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forethat View Post
    Pardon my french, but the Swedish version isn't working at all. In order to get an accurate view of the distribution, one must take the population density into account. In the UK, the population density is 274 people per km2. In Sweden it's 23. Here is an overview of the spread in a couple of countries with population AND density taken into account:


    Screenshot 2020-05-01 at 09.33.00.png - ForumFiles
    this is true too, and possibly other factors too, better diet in Sweden than in England, and less obesity etc... but what we know for sure, and we have the cases in refugee camps for that, is that lockdowns don't work to solve the pandemics, it was all done to cover the ass of politicians for their poor public health policies from the last 20 years, so they can be perceived to be doing something instead of nothing as usual

    they will get sued eventually, Macron and his PM will be investigated over their handling of affair right before the lockdowns when they were shipping all the masks and equipment to China in solidarity despite strong signals that it was going to hit all of Europe

    we have been played by broad incompetence, at every levels

  2. #18602
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    German lockdown has been strict and was applied early. In Bavaria companies were forcing employees that went to South Tyrol in Feb to self isolate. Home working was introduced mid march. Lockdown started in earnest 16 march.

    Please don't make things up butters...
    I am not making things up, this is directly from German representatives who are doing comparisons with France

    also some Landers had discretion over implementation of the lockdowns, in particular Bavaria

    Germans have been able to move more freely than in France or Italy, period. If you think Germany was strict, you should see what happened elsewhere instead of making ridiculous claims about Germany being strict.

  3. #18603
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    I'm not sure of the methodology required in establish this proof but I think the extraordinarily low infection rate and its corresponding death count in Thailand could be attributed to the widespread cognitive impairment manifested by the population.

    Any ideas anyone?
    definitely,

  4. #18604
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    I think London Imperial College did the stats regarding this, and they have been pretty good so far in their estimates
    You thought wrong. There is NO accurate statistics available in terms of nationwide infection rates.

  5. #18605
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Including a very quick response to potential infections and massive testing
    and they had better healthcare facility, better prepared compared to their immediate neighbors like France and Italy, more testing etc...

    hence why they can afford to open early now, starting this week

    that said, they are being cautious because they are afraid it will pick up again soon, which it will anyhow but if they have enough capacity, that's great

    we don't have that much capacity and Germany has been taking a lot of French patients in the East for that reasons. Incidentally the East was a hotbed for the virus and interestingly there was a lot of free movement between the 2 regions as they are closely related in economic and social terms.

  6. #18606
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forethat View Post
    Sweden is doing a piss poor job controlling the rate and volume of the spread.
    Agreed

  7. #18607
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    well, Sweden is smart, they know they can't stop the virus, nobody can

    so they let it pass through, no other choices, and this is what it will be for us

    now the question is why waste 2 months in lockdowns when it just delays the inevitable, we just made things worse IMO, we brought economic disaster on the top of things

    that really should stop the virus now

  8. #18608
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    this is true too, and possibly other factors too, better diet in Sweden than in England, and less obesity etc... but what we know for sure, and we have the cases in refugee camps for that, is that lockdowns don't work to solve the pandemics, it was all done to cover the ass of politicians for their poor public health policies from the last 20 years, so they can be perceived to be doing something instead of nothing as usual

    they will get sued eventually, Macron and his PM will be investigated over their handling of affair right before the lockdowns when they were shipping all the masks and equipment to China in solidarity despite strong signals that it was going to hit all of Europe

    we have been played by broad incompetence, at every levels
    You're wrong again. No one knows for sure that lockdowns don't work. In fact, all available statistics show that lockdowns DO work. It's undisputable.

  9. #18609
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    government officials just can't accept what's going on, and are using desperate measures, and as usual as humans, they make things worse

    sure they didn't want to have 100,000 deaths in 3 months, but it will still be 100,000 deaths over 12 months,

    so really what was achieved at the end? nothing,

  10. #18610
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    Butters, the krauts were a well oiled bureaucracy that threw their weight immediately behind testing and tracking but the incontrovertible fact remains that out of an infection rate of 170,000, similar to the UK, only 6,000 patients have died whereas in the shitty UK the charnel houses that pass for British hospitals have claimed 26,000 deaths.

    You see, the Germans, unlike the skanky Tory English trash, have funded their health systems and have a plenitude of ICU beds, ventilators and PPE for their staff.

    A real health system, run by a competent government led by a leader, not a buffoon concealing the misery pf his party's conduct in trashing a health service that has been deprived of funding for a decade.

    With regard to the Italian and French death rates, equivalent to the English, the only explanation I can put forward is that both nationalities like to kiss and hug as a cultural greeting. Similarly the Spanish love a cuddle and their cultural societal cohesion is bounded by strong familial links. Therefore the viral loading leading to the infection was undoubtedly higher than say the Kraut infection, a people who generally don't go in for close contact unless it is violent intimidation.

    The English death rate is simply a consequence of criminal negligence and the corollary of Brexit.
    Last edited by Seekingasylum; 01-05-2020 at 06:05 PM.

  11. #18611
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    estimates for France is 100K to 300K for 60% herd immunity

    should be about the same for Italy and the UK,

    so we are only on 10% of the target, and yes it's violent, but we are fucked already, nature won 3 months ago, we are just catching up to the news

  12. #18612
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    in the East
    . . . you mean the west

    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    they are closely related in economic and social terms.
    Closely related? The Treaty of Frankfurt made it perfectly easy to decide. Elsaß-Lothringen or France, you have to look at Brennan and Lomasky for reasoning one way or the other.
    (A region close to my heart)

  13. #18613
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    Butters, the krauts were a well oiled bureaucracy that threw their weight immediately behind testing and tracking but the incontrovertible fact remains that out of an infection rate of 170,000, similar to the UK, only 6,000 patients have died whereas in the shitty UK the charnel houses that pass for British hospitals have claimed 26,000 deaths.
    granted, but that's true for most of Europe, being better prepared did have an impact, but not the lockdown. The kneejerk reaction is the lockdown, and it's failing as we see now. It will keep rising and rising like it did with Italy and France.

    It's possible that your ICU capacity is lower than France or Italy, and therefore patients have been refused assistance and just die

    this is the case already here, everyone over 60s with COVID will not be under respirator, they will let them die in their hospital beds

  14. #18614
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    Germany is on the East part of France, not West

    the region is closely related to Germany, and everyone speak Germans there

  15. #18615
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    well, Sweden is smart, they know they can't stop the virus, nobody can

    so they let it pass through, no other choices, and this is what it will be for us

    now the question is why waste 2 months in lockdowns when it just delays the inevitable, we just made things worse IMO, we brought economic disaster on the top of things

    that really should stop the virus now
    Once again, you're completely wrong. South Korea, Germany and New Zeeland are just a few examples of countries where they've been able to stop the virus and/or CFR. They did this by extreme lockdowns in combination with extreme testing measures to identify infections as well as saturation. They then used this to initiate treatment early rather than wait until the patient was in need of ICU.

    You don't know fuck all, do you?

  16. #18616
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    Butters, you're overlooking a salient fact here. Herd immunity was only ever considered in the context of a vaccination programme and the 60% figure was the aiming point in those to be immunised to defeat the spread of an infection. It was never meant as a model in which a reservoir of infections was allowed to develop willy-nilly in some attempt to protect the species through natural selection.

    No-one knows what defence an infection will confer through the development of antibodies or its duration.

    This fucker could keep coming back irrespective of the "herd immunity".

    In the meantime we should concentrate on treatment.

  17. #18617
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    France is to the west of Germany . . . it's all a matter of one's standpoint.

    Außerdem ist es mir klar das die Elsäßer alle Deutsch sprechen, mein Alter! Hat schon seine Gründe warum mir die Region nahe liegt.


    Brexit
    Last edited by panama hat; 01-05-2020 at 07:05 PM. Reason: edited for SA

  18. #18618
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    Anyway, this is the Brexit thread so posts should contain some reference to English fuckwittery.

  19. #18619
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forethat View Post
    Pardon my french, but the Swedish version isn't working at all. In order to get an accurate view of the distribution, one must take the population density into account. In the UK, the population density is 274 people per km2. In Sweden it's 23. Here is an overview of the spread in a couple of countries with population AND density taken into account:


    Screenshot 2020-05-01 at 09.33.00.png - ForumFiles
    The Swedish method is sustainable. Comparing stats at this stage is apples and oranges. Population density at country level is too coarse. Refine it to be at the cluster level of you want a more accurate assessment.

  20. #18620
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    Anyway, this is the Brexit thread so posts should contain some reference to English fuckwittery.
    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Brexit
    Edited for context and SA

  21. #18621
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forethat View Post
    Once again, you're completely wrong. South Korea, Germany and New Zeeland are just a few examples of countries where they've been able to stop the virus and/or CFR. They did this by extreme lockdowns in combination with extreme testing measures to identify infections as well as saturation. They then used this to initiate treatment early rather than wait until the patient was in need of ICU.

    You don't know fuck all, do you?
    god, another know-it-all idiot joined TD

    SK, Germany and NZ didn't stop the virus, wtf, are you listening to the news, numbers of infected are still increasing. The consensus with experts is that it's still here and will continue spreading, period.

  22. #18622
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    Butters, you're overlooking a salient fact here. Herd immunity was only ever considered in the context of a vaccination programme and the 60% figure was the aiming point in those to be immunised to defeat the spread of an infection. It was never meant as a model in which a reservoir of infections was allowed to develop willy-nilly in some attempt to protect the species through natural selection.

    No-one knows what defence an infection will confer through the development of antibodies or its duration.

    This fucker could keep coming back irrespective of the "herd immunity".

    In the meantime we should concentrate on treatment.
    the herd immunity is real, can it be achieved, that's another question. There is no consensus on that yet. Like flu, there is no effective vaccine, and heard immunity is not there, yet it will stop spreading naturally. One explanation could be seasonality.

    The thing is infectious disease specialists from the around the world are telling us we still know very little about the flu virus, and even less about COVID

    COVID-2003 was over 10 years and we still don't have a vaccine, and it stop spreading "naturally", so this is still a work in progress

  23. #18623
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forethat View Post
    You're wrong again.
    Quote Originally Posted by Forethat View Post
    You thought wrong
    Quote Originally Posted by Forethat View Post
    Once again, you're completely wrong.
    It's something of a speciality.

    If you must read what he posts then just assume the opposite is correct.

    It works rather well.

  24. #18624
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forethat View Post
    South Korea, Germany and New Zeeland are just a few examples of countries where they've been able to stop the virus and/or CFR. They did this by extreme lockdowns in combination?
    SK, NZ and Germany were better prepared, period. Nothing to do with the lockdowns. Actually Germany had a less strict lockdown compared to France and Italy, same with SK, less strict than Europe. So that shot downs your silly arguments about lockdowns right there.

    However, those countries were better equipped for early identification and taking care of patients, hence putting strategies to "isolate" the small clusters, not everyone like we are doing here in Europe.

    Europe, and the UK have revealed their weaknesses in this disaster, we fucked ourselves, period. We are responsible for lack of preparation and years of neglect.

  25. #18625
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    It's something of a speciality.
    and I was wondering when our little Cy was going to summon us with his pointless remarks in this thread

    sniffing every turds like a little poodle

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