Honestly I do not think the country will split. But more likely internally crumble. Just as in the far south you have an uprising that so far no one has been able to control. The amount of money that BK would have to spend to stabilize "ethnic" unrest would break the bank. Foreign investors would look elsewhere and tourist havens would loose their appeal as violence becomes commonplace.
Again History repeating itself. Northern Island a small spot, was a huge blight on the British Economy. Its own economy stagnated for 20 years.