I’ll edit this post later today (with two different figures of 72% and 64% Yes votes) when the true numbers (how many surveys have been returned) come in from The Australian Bureau of Statistics: https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/media-releases
Until then (using the rough estimates below),……
More than 12 million Australians have already participated in the Turnbull government's same-sex marriage postal survey, new polling suggests.
With a month still to run until the survey closes, the polling conducted for The Equality Campaign finds a massive 77 per cent of the nation's 16 million enrolled voters have returned their forms.: Three quarters of voters have participated in marriage survey
Using 72% as Yes and 28% as voting No (I used 28% and not the 26% for the No vote early responses)
To date:
• 8,640,000 (Yes)
• 3,360,000 (No)
Missing surveys: 4,000,000
The rest of the math you can work out yourself.
Congrats Australia
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Edit - numbers have been posted at The Australian Bureau of Statistics
3 October 2017 - ABS releases first weekly estimate of Australian Marriage Law Postal Surveys received
As of Friday, 29 September 2017, the ABS estimates it has received 9.2 million (57.5 per cent) survey forms.: https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/news-alerts
Using the figures from the Guardian (72% Yes/28% No): https://www.theguardian.com/australi...essential-poll
To date:
• 6,624,000 (Yes)
• 2,576,000 (No)
Missing ballots (16 million forms sent): 6,800,000
Using the figures from Sky News ReachTEL poll (64% Yes/36% No - although ReachTEL reported only 16% stated No): Three quarters of voters have participated in marriage survey
To date:
• 5,888,000 (Yes)
• 3,312,000 (No)
Missing ballots (16 million forms sent): 6,800,000
Steep hill to climb for the No vote to succeed
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Just three weeks into a nine-week voting period, 57.5 per cent of eligible voters have already cast their vote.
This is well beyond expectations of both sides for this stage of the campaign and suggest that by November 15, when the survey results are published, more than 70 per cent of those eligible will have had their say.
But even at 57.5 per cent, as it was by last Friday, the postal survey has secured its legitimacy.
It is already higher than proportion of Americans who voted in last year's presidential election (55.5 per cent).
And it is already within striking distance of the 60.5 per cent turnout achieved in last year's Irish referendum to legalise gay marriage.
Data from Australia's longest-running lifestyle survey shows an overwhelming tide of support toward the rights of same-sex couples within Australian society.
By comparison, 68.7 per cent of Brits turned out for June's general election, and 74.5 per cent in the second round of the French presidential election.
It turns out that Australians have embraced an unorthodox exercise in democracy.
The higher-than-expected turnout tells us a few things.
Firstly, the various get-out-to-vote campaigns have worked.
Secondly, it suggests that the majority of people have well and truly made up their minds on this issue and have not had the need for a two-month debate to guide them.
If it is a majority Yes vote, the Prime Minister will swiftly move to amend the Marriage Act before Christmas, glad to remove the rainbow distraction from his Government.: Postal survey's higher-than-expected turnout secures legitimacy