Thread: Rubber trees 101

Jesus Jim , whats happening to the agricultural future of this Country? ,Rice looks to have "death wish" about it ,with many farmers still not been paid ,as to this seasons price no one knows ,There,s quite a few farangs in my area into rubber farming who are far from happy with the situation , and as I ride daily through various routes on my Mountain bike Thousands of Rai of young as yet untapped rubber saplings ,christ knows whats going to happen when they come on stream.

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Jesus Jim , whats happening to the agricultural future of this Country? ,Rice looks to have "death wish" about it ,with many farmers still not been paid ,as to this seasons price no one knows ,There,s quite a few farangs in my area into rubber farming who are far from happy with the situation , and as I ride daily through various routes on my Mountain bike Thousands of Rai of young as yet untapped rubber saplings ,christ knows whats going to happen when they come on stream.

Western ways are coming, small family rice farms will go, big farming companies will buy up the land and the peons will move to the factories.
Rubber will die off over time in Thailand, Goodyear Cambodia, 10,000 hectares, big is better.

Just like the west, small farms won't pay, figure have about 10 year left for me, then it will be time to sell. Good farming land is scarce in the world and the appetites of China/India will grow, as will land values.

As I have said, what took 200 years in the west will take 20 years here, no turning back, now millions living off the land, how many in the UK.

Not too worried, as long as my 2 young kids get the best start possible and at this point in time Thailand offers better long term prospects than OZ or the UK. Jim

On rubber prices, bit of smoke and mirrors here, there is not enough rubber, 56% of the worlds rubber needs are synthetic rubber, made from oil.
Oil sets the price, UN committee on climate change has set targets for re new-able energy, rubber is re new able, oil is not.

All you need is good numbers for car sales/manufacturing in China, EU, US and the speculates move in, another boom time. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Jesus Jim , whats happening to the agricultural future of this Country? ,Rice looks to have "death wish" about it ,with many farmers still not been paid ,as to this seasons price no one knows ,There,s quite a few farangs in my area into rubber farming who are far from happy with the situation , and as I ride daily through various routes on my Mountain bike Thousands of Rai of young as yet untapped rubber saplings ,christ knows whats going to happen when they come on stream.

Western ways are coming, small family rice farms will go, big farming companies will buy up the land and the peons will move to the factories.
Rubber will die off over time in Thailand, Goodyear Cambodia, 10,000 hectares, big is better.

Just like the west, small farms won't pay, figure have about 10 year left for me, then it will be time to sell. Good farming land is scarce in the world and the appetites of China/India will grow, as will land values.

As I have said, what took 200 years in the west will take 20 years here, no turning back, now millions living off the land, how many in the UK.

Not too worried, as long as my 2 young kids get the best start possible and at this point in time Thailand offers better long term prospects than OZ or the UK. Jim

Jim, I just hope the sacrifices you are making for your young kids are fully appreciated by them , here many of the Young men who are leeching off their hard working parents ,who consider themselves too light for heavy work and too heavy for light work will not do the simplest of tasks for their parents if Thai Boxing is on TV or there is a Village Cockfight going on ,or a wedding or funeral party were they can get free booze and food , sorry if I have to be so blunt but I think you get my drift .

Originally Posted by jamescollister

On rubber prices, bit of smoke and mirrors here, there is not enough rubber, 56% of the worlds rubber needs are synthetic rubber, made from oil.
Oil sets the price, UN committee on climate change has set targets for re new-able energy, rubber is re new able, oil is not.

All you need is good numbers for car sales/manufacturing in China, EU, US and the speculates move in, another boom time. Jim

Seriously Jim I hope everything pans out for you and your ilk , for sure you lot deserve all the luck you can get

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by piwanoi

It appears to be going from bad to worse for you guys out there ,if they sell the 220,000 tonnes of rubber on the cheap ,surely this could well depress prices even further ,Rubber farmers vow city rally | Bangkok Post: news

Not looking good at all, lost 2 new tappers Friday, better money else where.

Going to have to think hard on the fertilizer front, that's about 200,000 Baht a year, drop in out put may be more cost effective at these prices. That's if I have any tappers left.

Labor costs must be killing the Malaysians, higher wages there, some Chinese buyers have defaulted on payments [futures market] and nothing the Thai government can do.

Will survive the season, but belt tightening and cutting living costs will be on the cards. Bright side, will still be better off than on the dole in OZ. Jim

Many (not all)Thai young men here have no money , but they will not work to better themselves ,why should they when their stupid parents are quite willing to keep them in free food,Cigarettes ,Booze and an Honda 125 for them to go on their nightly carousing on monthly payments .

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Originally Posted by jamescollister

On rubber prices, bit of smoke and mirrors here, there is not enough rubber, 56% of the worlds rubber needs are synthetic rubber, made from oil.
Oil sets the price, UN committee on climate change has set targets for re new-able energy, rubber is re new able, oil is not.

All you need is good numbers for car sales/manufacturing in China, EU, US and the speculates move in, another boom time. Jim

Seriously Jim I hope everything pans out for you and your ilk , for sure you lot deserve all the luck you can get

Not luck needed, just a better world, kids will be OK, born in OZ, UK/EU passports[ I was born UK ] big family both sides of the pond.
Here play in the streets, everyone is related, treated like stars, they can go anywhere in this world. Spoiled, think they are Paris Hilton of Issan and will be drop dead beautiful when older.
For me, I've done the hard years and a few beers and a bed is all I need.

PS ride a mountain bike myself, go into the jungle trails, bit of trouble out in the jungle at the moment. Yesterday wife just upped my accident insurance, pays doubt if you die in a national park. Jim

Price down again, other bigger Thai planters, crying out or tappers, one with over 100 rai has no tappers left. Everyone's in the jungle logging, big money to be made, at this rate there will be no jungle left, must be 100s up there.
Never seen so many red number plates, most paid for in cash, no questions, of where a guy with 10 rai of rice gets over 1 mil Baht. New homes popping up everywhere, went for a ride on my mountain bike yesterday. Took a few trails that I had not been up, shocked to see big farang type houses with Toyota fortunas parked outside.

Understand the rosewood is pretty well all gone and they have moved on to other trees. Except for a bit of a show of force, a few months ago, the border soldiers/forestry guys are keeping out of the way. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Price down again, other bigger Thai planters, crying out or tappers, one with over 100 rai has no tappers left. Everyone's in the jungle logging, big money to be made, at this rate there will be no jungle left, must be 100s up there.
Never seen so many red number plates, most paid for in cash, no questions, of where a guy with 10 rai of rice gets over 1 mil Baht. New homes popping up everywhere, went for a ride on my mountain bike yesterday. Took a few trails that I had not been up, shocked to see big farang type houses with Toyota fortunas parked outside.

Understand the rosewood is pretty well all gone and they have moved on to other trees. Except for a bit of a show of force, a few months ago, the border soldiers/forestry guys are keeping out of the way. Jim

And of course with de forestation and habitat loss it will be much easier to slaughter the indigenous wild life to feed the exotic animal meat trade .

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Price down again, other bigger Thai planters, crying out or tappers, one with over 100 rai has no tappers left. Everyone's in the jungle logging, big money to be made, at this rate there will be no jungle left, must be 100s up there.
Never seen so many red number plates, most paid for in cash, no questions, of where a guy with 10 rai of rice gets over 1 mil Baht. New homes popping up everywhere, went for a ride on my mountain bike yesterday. Took a few trails that I had not been up, shocked to see big farang type houses with Toyota fortunas parked outside.

Understand the rosewood is pretty well all gone and they have moved on to other trees. Except for a bit of a show of force, a few months ago, the border soldiers/forestry guys are keeping out of the way. Jim

And of course with de forestation and habitat loss it will be much easier to slaughter the indigenous wild life to feed the exotic animal meat trade .

The tip of the iceberg in the evil trade in Thailands so called protected wild life Crack down on illegal wildlife trafficking gangs - The Nation

certainly no economist but still cannot figure why oil rich countries and cartels can set their prices but other commodity producers cannot/do not? Gotta be about the rats in the rice bag ..produce nothing yet make and get paid billions..banks,brokers,traders,agents,religious organizations,UN,governance ....ad nauseam....then if they loose billions they go crying to governments who then bail them out!!.....go figure why gold prices skyrocketed yet many gold mining company share prices are in the toilet...brain hurts.....

no wonder we drink......

Cup gate price at 24bt yesterday..... new water pump and two boxes of beer took care of that cash!

Originally Posted by crepitas

certainly no economist but still cannot figure why oil rich countries and cartels can set their prices but other commodity producers cannot/do not? Gotta be about the rats in the rice bag ..produce nothing yet make and get paid billions..banks,brokers,traders,agents,religious organizations,UN,governance ....ad nauseam....then if they loose billions they go crying to governments who then bail them out!!.....go figure why gold prices skyrocketed yet many gold mining company share prices are in the toilet...brain hurts.....

no wonder we drink......

Cup gate price at 24bt yesterday..... new water pump and two boxes of beer took care of that cash!

26 Baht wet cup today, nearly lost another 2 tappers, they were for heading up to the logging. Wife talked them out of it or now, not much I can do about prices, workers or logging.
Reading how things are back in OZ, no work, taxes up country seems broke, looks like will have to just sit it out here and wait it out.

Off to weed my cassava in the hot sun, 3 or 4 hours of that and the beer will taste great, so not all bad. Jim

Just lost 2 more tappers to the illegal logging in the mountains, but have 2 [ex local] on a bus from Sarathani on the way. Leaves me only 5 or 6 short.

They had a helicopter gunship flying around yesterday, trying to scare the loggers away, but unless they put some real soldiers on the ground the logging will continue.

Told it's 10,000 Baht a day pay, every school kids riding a new Honda wave and I could go to a new car blessing party everyday. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

10,000 Baht a day pay

Not many country Thais will walk away from an offer like that, gunship or not.

Wouldn't a few roadblocks, manned with "reliable" soldiers, stop this ?

Originally Posted by OhOh

Originally Posted by jamescollister

10,000 Baht a day pay

Not many country Thais will walk away from an offer like that, gunship or not.

Wouldn't a few roadblocks, manned with "reliable" soldiers, stop this ?

Reliable soldiers are elsewhere, border troops and forestry guys are locals, they get a cut. Plus a lot of the timber goes over to Lao [land border] to China.

Unless they bring troops from outside the area, there is no way to stop it, sad, but the money is just to big and everyones on the take. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by OhOh

Originally Posted by jamescollister

10,000 Baht a day pay

Not many country Thais will walk away from an offer like that, gunship or not.

Wouldn't a few roadblocks, manned with "reliable" soldiers, stop this ?

Reliable soldiers are elsewhere, border troops and forestry guys are locals, they get a cut. Plus a lot of the timber goes over to Lao [land border] to China.

Unless they bring troops from outside the area, there is no way to stop it, sad, but the money is just to big and everyones on the take. Jim

Sad as it is ,same old story..if you have access to the food chain and the big bucks,environment, ethics, law and order,religious convictions etc become hypocrital rhetoric ......to those who are pocketing the proceeds.
Nothing will change......best to hunker down and take care of you're own mate.
Maybe a few of the timber poachers will step on a "made in USA/China/France" landmine...?

Funny innit: just hobbled off and released a few hundred fingerlings into a local lake and klong...nobody turned up to take any pics???

New tappers from the south arrived about an hour ago, man, wife 3 kids. FIL straight in as if he's the boss, big face. Gave the family some warm drinking water, I come in, give the guy a beer, kids a bottle of coke and ice, think by the FILs looks I have committed some sin.
They work for me, not the FIL, but he has to play the big shot, would tell him to F off, but last time I did, ended up sleeping in the office.
With luck he's off to the monkey house before long, he had it made an easy life [through me], but this big man in the village thing, keep up with the Jones, will cost him everything.
Hard to understand this big face crap.

Sold a 1,000 kilos of wet cup today, 28 Baht a kilo, may have a night in Ubon, not all bad. Jim

jamescollister,
Sold a 1,000 kilos of wet cup today, 28 Baht a kilo, may have a night in Ubon, not all bad. Jim.

Jim, 1,000 kilos how night you tapping?. Matt

Originally Posted by rubberdiesel

jamescollister,
Sold a 1,000 kilos of wet cup today, 28 Baht a kilo, may have a night in Ubon, not all bad. Jim.

Jim, 1,000 kilos how night you tapping?. Matt

Think that plantation, 6 taps [2 on 1 off] but my biggest. Jim

Jim,

Wall Street Journal yesterday;
Asian rubber producers are shipping more of their stockpiles to India—an unlikely destination given it’s already well-supplied and ranks as the world’s fifth-largest producer of natural rubber.
But Indian buyers are skipping local rubber in favor of these imports from Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia because the imports are up to 15% cheaper, even with a 20% tax imposed by Delhi.
Global rubber prices have sunk 25% this year because the market, valued at more than $30 billion a year, is awash in surplus supplies from Southeast Asia. Indian farmers, watching local prices hurtle below production costs, have reacted by holding back stocks.
“Farmers don’t want to release the material until prices move up,” said George Valy, president of the Indian Rubber Dealers’ Federation.
That opens the way for imports, which are meeting nearly half of India’s monthly rubber demand of 80,000 tons, up from about a quarter a year ago.
For buyers, the drop in prices is a boon. Tire makers are stocking up, said an industry official who did not want to be identified.
That would be welcome news for Thailand, the world’s largest natural rubber producer, which plans to unload a stockpile of 220,000 metric tons on international markets. It’s struggling with an overhang of supply that’s denting farmers income there too.

Looking at Farm Gate prices in India :
60% Latex 25-May-14 FIELD LATEX FARMGATE PRICE
Moving average PURCHASE PRICE
May-14 CALCULATION
average
RUBBER BOARD PRICE PER WET KG 114.28 for the month
PER KG DRC 190.46
less conversion expenses 32.00 per kg drc
Field latex price (suggested) 158.46 per kg drc

For conversion rates work on 150 rupees = 83bht

No wonder the buyers are shipping to India. looks like the far east are the poor relations in terms of gate price.
Just makes you wonder what the Government buying policy is making what out of this current situation..

TTM

tothemark
Beginning to think the worlds out to get me, 2008 opened our small factory, price hit $5 US a kilo. Hit $220 profit a day and growing fast, GFC hits, sheds full of rubber, drops to nothing. Had to go get a job.

Last week 2 tappers left to go illegal logging, but had 2 on the bus from the south on their way up. Today 2 more left to log, new family, 2 taps, husband in hospital, malaria, 3 kids and no money, I pay.

Went to my factory, have cassava there, I'm weeding in 40 plus heat, see the electricity bill stuck in the meter, 1300 Bath, think I have 6,000 left. Wife has move, but she takes care of the cars, house, food and kids.

Stand in a baking field, covered in sweat, broke, is it worth it.
Come home, kids are happy, wife's happy, beers cold, I'm a free man, not owned by a bank.
It is worth it. Jim

Been away in the UK for a couple odd weeks. No emails - bliss. Auction prices up here in Udon, cup rubber; 1st sale 2 weeks ago 31.50 baht per kg. 2nd sale yesterday 34.02 baht per kg. Dunno why prices are better here than elsewhere, also output is 75-100% up on last year, same month. Possibly due to trees now 10-11 years old and getting closer to the base of the trunk. Helps to offset the shitty price.

Read an interesting article on rubber prices, guy writing predicting a shortage this year.
Reason, Malaysian tappers and owners packing up for better paid jobs, same for other countries. Low prices mean people will not fertilize, lowering output, weather will be bad for rubber this year, El nenio. By his numbers oversupply is gone, with possible under supply.

Article is in the Thai rubber associations news section. Jim

^ things are picking up, good news.