Hey Jim , this looks to be getting serious , what do you make of it?Rubber farmers threaten road blockades - The Nation
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Hey Jim , this looks to be getting serious , what do you make of it?Rubber farmers threaten road blockades - The Nation
"Thai rubber free-on-board added 0.3 percent to 82.95 baht ($2.60) a kilogram on Aug. 23, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand"
Rubber Poised for Bull Market as China
Nothing new, Thai farmers like to protest, except a rice planting and harvesting time.Quote:
Originally Posted by piwanoi
They seem to think and have been lead to believe that the Government controls the prices. Which is not true, it's a commodity on the world market, just like in the west, things in a country are booming, it's the Government good management of the economy. Things go bad it's not their fault, it's the world economy.
The Thai Government will throw some money about, make speeches, talk of deals with the other rubber producing nations. When prices pick up as the world gets better, the Government will take credit.
To be honest don't think it's the prices that are the real problem, small planters borrowed big to buy new pickups TVs etc in the belief, that what the Government promised when they introduced the 5 Baht a kilo export tax. The tax was to stabilize rubber price at over 100 Baht a kilo for RSS3.
Governments and election promises, Government could increase the price overnight by removing the tax, but they won't. Jim
Yeah Norton , but thats still a huge price discrepancy from the 120 baht a kilo what the farmers are demanding :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
Thanks for the reply Jim , correct me if I'm wrong but it appears from what you say that the Farmers are being unreasonable in demanding 120 baht a kilo with a threat to blockade the roads if they don't get it .Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollisterNothing new, Thai farmers like to protest, except a rice planting and harvesting time.Quote:
Originally Posted by piwanoi
They seem to think and have been lead to believe that the Government controls the prices. Which is not true, it's a commodity on the world market, just like in the west, things in a country are booming, it's the Government good management of the economy. Things go bad it's not their fault, it's the world economy.
The Thai Government will throw some money about, make speeches, talk of deals with the other rubber producing nations. When prices pick up as the world gets better, the Government will take credit.
To be honest don't think it's the prices that are the real problem, small planters borrowed big to buy new pickups TVs etc in the belief, that what the Government promised when they introduced the 5 Baht a kilo export tax. The tax was to stabilize rubber price at over 100 Baht a kilo for RSS3.
Governments and election promises, Government could increase the price overnight by removing the tax, but they won't. Jim
Good for them. Perhaps they should be aware, "demand in one hand, shit in the other and see which one fills quickest".:)Quote:
Originally Posted by piwanoi
Piwanoi, offcause they are being unreasonable, but they just don't understand, it's the overseas buyers that set the price not the Government.
Only India has control of the rubber price and that's because they use more than they produce. Price drops and they increase the import tax.
Supply and demand is the bottom line, farmers want 120 Baht a kilo, stop tapping their trees for a few months, there will be less supply and prices will rise. Not going to happen. Jim
Yeah Jim , what you say makes sense ,but its going to be interesting whats going to happen if the Govt don't cough up , which in reading the article just ain't going to happen !:)Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Where I am the farmers say, they help rice farmers so why not help us the rubber farmers, fair question in my opinion, they do not have a clue about world economics and do not care they blame the government for everything.
http://www.maybank-ke.co.th/rdbs/Sto...plaining_T.pdf
Actually there are four agricultural products that have price support allowances in the Thai Budget. Rice the largest, rubber is another , cassava the third and I think palm oil is the fourth. The link explains how it is funded.
Only 4 Issan Aussie? I think you had better read on , I am not sure if you remember the CAP (the common agricultural policy ) in Europe , this was another dreamed up scheme of subsidies paying far more than the products was actually worth , this madness in Thailand will eventually go the same way , cos you just cannot buck World prices as Jim said in his posts about the current price of rubber, as every one is at the mercy of their competitor, and if you cannot compete price wise, sooner or later when the dawn of realization comes that no one one has the divine right to taxpayers money to bail them out until the "cows come home".http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busi...-30180565.html they actually tried it with Onions too but that was just another disaster!Quote:
Originally Posted by IsaanAussie
According to this latest article Jim, it would appear the rubber farmers are quite willing to go all the way to have their demands met!Rubber farmers threaten larger protests | Bangkok Post: newsQuote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Politics and smoke and mirrors, Government can't really do much. Most rubber is bought by private companies, they have to pay the rate dictated by their overseas buyers.Quote:
Originally Posted by piwanoiAccording to this latest article Jim, it would appear the rubber farmers are quite willing to go all the way to have their demands met!Rubber farmers threaten larger protests | Bangkok Post: newsQuote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
No one is going to pay more for rubber than they can sell it for, Government can't buy everyone's rubber, they don't have the money or facilities.
Same as last year they will buy from co ops at a set price, but you take your rubber there and don't get paid. Rubber is then shipped to the storage area racked and sacked, payment to the co op 60 days. Small rubber farmers can't wait, so they sell to the middle men who can wait.
Looks like the Government is helping out the little guy, but they are only helping out the money men.
When the rains ease tappers will go back to tapping, rubber protests will stop, to be replaced by the rice farmers, cassava farmers, worm farmers and dog farmers who have time on their hands.
Reality, if the rubber planters were so poor because of low prices they could go get a job, instead of having a camp out with their mates, eating som tam and drinking lao kow. Just the Thai way. Jim
Well at least the price will be going up in India.:)
India's economy is stranded up shits creek without a paddle :)BBC News - Indian rupee falls to new low against US dollarQuote:
Originally Posted by IsaanAussie
Saw an interview with one on channel 3 news. He complained that the low prices would force him to give up his Honda SUV. He couldn't make his 9,000 baht a month payments.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Got to tell ya, it almost broke my heart.
It's a sad state of affairs, BIL who has a MU 7, not 3 years old bought a new Ford Ranger high rider 2 months ago, FIL bought [ if you can believe, a Mazda 2 sport 3 months ago, live in the jungle ] and wife's complaining that the insurance is due next month on our Pajero 7 seat sport.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
Never in my whole working life have I ever owned a new car, here I ride a Chinese chopper and drive a 11 year old strata pick up.
Rubber pays for these cars and it's the Governments fault that they may not be able to make the payments. No responsibility on their part, get it now Buddha will take care.
No use coming to me for help, have 200 Baht in the bank and not one red cent coming in from overseas. Tell them the way of the world, but a farang doesn't know how things work in Thailand.
I'm stupid and they will be broke. Jim
Gotta tell you Jim, they are right. I have absolutely no idea how things "work" here. A year ago this village was tapped out financially, no-one had a baht or access to more. New houses, cars, tractors everywhere now, but no increase in income? Buggered if I can work it out!
^^Credits easy here. Paybacks are forgotten and forgiven. Then a week later its back to a different bank or loan shark for more cash.
Seems to me from watching its a "monkey see, monkey do," sort of mentality. Keeping up with the Jone's type people.
My Thai neighbors watch my house for changes and activity. What ever we do or purchase we know that soon something similar will happen or be purchased.
Buy a tractor, 6 more show up next week. I'm thinking that we're bankrupting the entire bann.
What's really weird is all the Thai's old and young who wander aimlessly staring at their Smart phones with nothing else to do? Seems the entire population is now on "hold."
Jan my wife and the village headmans son who has had a decent education and speaks good English inform me that there is not a family in our Village that is not in debt ,and some quite heavily , the crunch is going to come at Harvest time cos all have planted Hom Mali rice ,thinking that the pledging price of 20,000 a tonne for Hom Mali and 15,000 for white rice is still in force , that,s gone, the across the board price is 15,000 ,which means they will be lucky to get 12,000 if last year is anything to go by,its going to be interesting to see what happens come Nov.
^Sad but true. Same all over the country. The banker's are giving money away.
If you're a Thai its open season on loans. PT has opened the flood gates to hell. 97's collapse will be nothing compared to the coming one.
This week's auction on tues-wed in Udon province, kee yang - 43.25 baht per kilo. Still going up...
Lets hope the trend continues , cos no one wants to see the farmers go under , but maybe just maybe they should learn how to manage their finances a little better instead of borrowing themselves into oblivion , and learn that there actually is a "tomorrow" instead of just "today" , and supply and demand controls world wide prices and not the Government :) the way I see it Jim and Itnt,s words are not ill founded.Quote:
Originally Posted by thaiguzzi
It's all big picture stuff, all the show of doing the right thing by rubber farmers, rice or cassava is just show.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
Rubber prices have nothing to do with supply in the long term really, most of the worlds rubber is made from oil, 65% synthetic, 45 % natural. You can up the prices short term, but if manufactures of tyres etc see a long term increase, they can and will switch to synthetic.
Banks and the big players are not stupid,they know that the peons can't
keep up the payments, but they have land. Government has been out giving charnotes to what was once crown land, collateral, it can be sold to pay the debt.
What took 100s of years in Europe will be done in 20 here, that car is worth 10 rai of good rice land. When the car and the land are gone, the land will be owned by the big players and the family will have to get jobs. No more hammocks, no more lazy life, 50, 60 hour working weeks, living in a concrete box near a factory in some city.
Credit here or in the west is just the same as what was called bonded servants 300 years ago. Once you sign for that car, it may only say 6 years, but you have signed a deal with the devil and he owns you for the rest of your life.
I left the world to be free, not owned by the banks, but it seems the system is catching up on me and fast.
When I came here 10 or 11 years ago the village had 2 pickup trucks, mine and the village head, where once water buffalo slept under stilt huts a new silver pickup now lives and there are few buffalo left. Jim
I always enjoy reading your none BS sage words Jim , a true insight into reality, were sadly many Thai's here in Issan fear to tread , maybe they think that driving round in a new Pick Up, or their 13 year year old son riding to school on a Honda 125 costing 65.000 baht on the "installment plan" and both owned by the finance Company is somehow "progress" :)
[quote=jamescollister;2548379]I found this to be a good summary.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
Reading this paragraph almost makes you cry. Gone in 1 generation and nothing and nobody can or will stop it. My BIL had to sell off his 13 water buffalo this year due to lack of feeding areas and their normal free range ways of traveling to the richest area for fodder. His entire family cried when they sold them off. He simply couldn't afford to keep paying other farmers for the grazing of his buffalo on their fields.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
He's now invested in land and rubber trees. He thinks that the rubber will supplement income from his rice and other vegetable crops in bad years. He is one year on now and has lost 100 trees so far due to drought. Hard working guy and will not let his family down.
We're moving up there next month, October and will begin our build. We bought 4 rai from a farmer who had his land in the bank for loans. He paid off the bank and had some left after and planted Lum Yai on about 6 rai on a different parcel of his as well has build a new house and one for his son on what he got for his land from me. Nicest guy and works his ass off night and day.
We were allowed to purchase his land as my wife and her family are part of that community. If you are an outsider you cannot buy the land from locals unless they all collectively approve of the buyer and his intended use.
As bank notes come due as you stated, more and more of these farmers will no doubt go tits up and be forced labor in some factory in Thailand. A real shame. A national catastrophe in my thinking. The next generation also don't want the farmer way of life and are deserting the fields for taxi jobs in Bangkok or other big cities.
Just a sheer coincidence no doubt , I did like the bit were the Rubber farmers leaders in Issan and the North had been offered 200 million baht to "curtail " their demands in one of their meetings due shortly , which was of course strenuously denied :)Government denies shooting at protesting farmers | Bangkok Post: news
Have heard, but facts and truth are far between, that the Government is to give 1,000 baht per rai, up to 25 rai to rubber farmers in the north.. To help them out over the low price time.
Will believe it when I see the money, but the Governments support base is in the north not the south and we all know money buys votes.
If you do the numbers, that 25,000 Baht is what a 25 rai plantation makes the Government in one year in export tax easily.
Take with one hand and give with the other. Jim
Sold yesterday at auction, Udon Thani province; kee yang 46.30 baht per kg. Still going up...
Sold yesterday at auction, Udon Thani province; kee yang 42.61 baht per kg. Going down...
We just had the village boss on the PA system ranting on about this rubber grant. Before, when we registered, you had to have land papers, out here a lot of land has no paper, it's possession land.
He was saying people with undocumented land can now apply as well, he signs off that there are rubber trees and the alleged occupier gets the grant, even though the village and the possession land owner have records of sales and transfers witnessed by usually the sub gov.
Looks like in a typical Thai way some people may get a good wedge out of this.
Have to see if the government pays out in the end, but if they do, I'll be singing in the rain for a few days and it's still raining here. Jim
do hope ya ain't go blow 50+k baht in a few days....although I think my wife would give it a go..we shall see what we see hugh
Suspect the favored voters in Isaan may well see it first...lol
anyone see this...lots of these ladies down our way including a rellie..lol
....they are good investment though..sort of unofficial village Credit Union..pays about 25%++ on your monthly investment over 1.5 yr term.
Granny Loan Shark - Viewfinder - Asia2013 - Al Jazeera English
BIL has 50 rai in Surat. They plan to take the money and run. He has agreed to lease the land to another farmer and as most of his stock is mid 30s with no succession planting, I don't blame him.
Filthy job, hard work, unsocial hours and at the mercy of the weather and the markets.
you must have the patience of a saint Jim.
My patience gets tested a lot, right now it's the weather and tappers. Next will be who knows what, another car, no that was earlier in the year.Quote:
Originally Posted by chassamui
All in all better than working, but at times it has come close to violence, Thais can do some real stupid things. Like FIL buying 110 bags of fertilizer without asking me, he's smart, only 400bht a bag and had saved me 60000 bht. Except it wasn't fertilizer it was magic organic stuff.
Think he learnt his lesson when I refused to pay for it, wife paid in the end, but think the fear of being out of pocket should stop him buying any thing else. Jim
Yeah Jim of course your wife paid with your hard earned dough , cos when one gets down to the "nitty gritty" thats all it boils down to in the end ! :rofl:
Wouldn't say hard eared money, tappers do the work, and I have a system, which I call sharing the pain.Quote:
Originally Posted by piwanoi
Wife has 3 plantations, her money, car payments, food shopping, kids, family etc. I have one for me.
When the FIL screws up, there's less in the pot for the wife and the in laws, FIL, MIL live with us.
Think the FIL is learning fast, no ATM here, no money, no outside income. Car insurance was due last month, wife says don't have the money, too much rain. Say it wasn't me that wanted a big SUV, but your dad, park it up, insurance paid next day.
Old man wants to play, then the money he gets from the wife gets less and he hurts, tight bastard always has money when needed. Jim
They never learn Jim. "Can I borrow BT 5000" Yes but I want it back tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Better still, "Can I borrow Bt5000"?
NO
It works both ways. i do occasionally lend them money but they know I also say no once in a while. Keeps them honest ish.
GF is a diamond and works her ass off, but the family are wasters mostly.
Just a different way of looking at things, old man is eleted life time government, BIL is some type of county clerk, they make their money, they would just rather I paid, I rather want them to pay. Got to say the wife never runs short, I have no money, she has none, but daddy is there. JimQuote:
Originally Posted by chassamui