Thread: Rubber trees 101

Last year's fertiliser subsidy of 2.5k ish per rai, up to 25 rai per family?

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Last year's fertiliser subsidy of 2.5k ish per rai, up to 25 rai per family?

That's what I thought, but when the guys came to survey, things weren't that simple, hands were out.
Looks like they are paying from the Amphor out, so fingers crossed, more to come. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Last year's fertiliser subsidy of 2.5k ish per rai, up to 25 rai per family?

That's what I thought, but when the guys came to survey, things weren't that simple, hands were out.
Looks like they are paying from the Amphor out, so fingers crossed, more to come. Jim

Seriously Jim I hope you can squeeze every baht out of the "prevailing system" in rubber farming , but lets spare a little thought for the rice farmers who have received fuck all since they sold their rice in Oct ,due entirely to just one of Thaksins "populist policys" to get HIS party voted in again so he and his cronies could continue on the corruption gravy train with no chance of it ever hitting the buffers , sadly I looked around in my area quite some time ago and came to the conclusion that due to their short term thinking, that Issan Thai's are their own worst enemies , so there fore they are just molded like putty in Thaksin and the many other Thai Chinese's hands.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by crepitas

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Just a short post, got 40,000 Baht rubber subsidy yesterday, not sure how it was worked out, but it' in the bank.
There will be beer, and a 51 inch TV. Jim

should it not have been 65?...guess not worth asking anyone what happened to the rest though...lol gift horse and all that? Still waiting here.

Don't know how much we should have got, been some dodgy doings and we may get more money.
Know we got 2 extra bank accounts in BILs, wives maiden names, deals were being done, need to know and I'm a farang, less I know the better according to the Thais. Jim

TRUE!..lol .....Re your NOO TV we bought a LED Samsung about 6 months ago and only had HDMI input from satellite set top..had to buy new tiny digital set top box..only about 950bt . frickin great pic though.....just saying

Originally Posted by crepitas

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by crepitas

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Just a short post, got 40,000 Baht rubber subsidy yesterday, not sure how it was worked out, but it' in the bank.
There will be beer, and a 51 inch TV. Jim

should it not have been 65?...guess not worth asking anyone what happened to the rest though...lol gift horse and all that? Still waiting here.

Don't know how much we should have got, been some dodgy doings and we may get more money.
Know we got 2 extra bank accounts in BILs, wives maiden names, deals were being done, need to know and I'm a farang, less I know the better according to the Thais. Jim

TRUE!..lol .....Re your NOO TV we bought a LED Samsung about 6 months ago and only had HDMI input from satellite set top..had to buy new tiny digital set top box..only about 950bt . frickin great pic though.....just saying

All ready have a 42 inch flat screen HD, but Thai soaps control that, this is for me and real movies. Got to get a hard drive, 10 Baht a move, keep me sane through the wet season. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by crepitas

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by crepitas

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Just a short post, got 40,000 Baht rubber subsidy yesterday, not sure how it was worked out, but it' in the bank.
There will be beer, and a 51 inch TV. Jim

should it not have been 65?...guess not worth asking anyone what happened to the rest though...lol gift horse and all that? Still waiting here.

Don't know how much we should have got, been some dodgy doings and we may get more money.
Know we got 2 extra bank accounts in BILs, wives maiden names, deals were being done, need to know and I'm a farang, less I know the better according to the Thais. Jim

TRUE!..lol .....Re your NOO TV we bought a LED Samsung about 6 months ago and only had HDMI input from satellite set top..had to buy new tiny digital set top box..only about 950bt . frickin great pic though.....just saying

All ready have a 42 inch flat screen HD, but Thai soaps control that, this is for me and real movies. Got to get a hard drive, 10 Baht a move, keep me sane through the wet season. Jim

yup good idea... have a mate in Phuket has about a million on a terra bit drive ..cannot be bothered really as he is French and can only understand 10%..lol Anyways re the satellite... the box was bought from a PSI dealer.. In Canada in June will see what I can steal from son etc on thumb drive..lol

On a another note Blue Sky has just announced that 100 thousand have yet to receive first time buyer refund....I million still have yet to be paid for their rice.

SIL has just received 1st time buyer cash of 30k which should have been 100k...

who knows???

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Last year's fertiliser subsidy of 2.5k ish per rai, up to 25 rai per family?

That's what I thought, but when the guys came to survey, things weren't that simple, hands were out.
Looks like they are paying from the Amphor out, so fingers crossed, more to come. Jim

Seriously Jim I hope you can squeeze every baht out of the "prevailing system" in rubber farming , but lets spare a little thought for the rice farmers who have received fuck all since they sold their rice in Oct ,due entirely to just one of Thaksins "populist policys" to get HIS party voted in again so he and his cronies could continue on the corruption gravy train with no chance of it ever hitting the buffers , sadly I looked around in my area quite some time ago and came to the conclusion that due to their short term thinking, that Issan Thai's are their own worst enemies , so there fore they are just molded like putty in Thaksin and the many other Thai Chinese's hands.

True, many rural Thais bring hardship on themselves, but it a culture thing.
My village/area had Chinese from northern Vietnam settle here about 200 years ago [so I'm told] the rest are mountain Lao people. They have interbreed, but the taller pale skinned ones run the show. Shops, businesses, rubber plantations etc, the Lao peoples tend to be less industrious, not that anyone wants to work hard.
Who's to say who has the best life, no ones homeless or hungry, but I tell them the world has arrived and your kids are tomorrows factory fodder.
Power only came 10 years ago, a lot of catching up to do, for some the mountains and jungle is more home than the village.

In my short time here, place has totally changed, not for the better, from my point of view. Greed, envoy and an I want, has arrived, more new cars here than a good suburb in Australia.
Locals have already been told, its national park, not jungle, not yours for taking, next will be taxes, more rules, end of a life style. Jim

You Are Here: Home » Global Rubber Market News » Worst May Be Over For Asian Natural Rubber Prices
Worst may be over for Asian natural rubber prices
Posted Date : April 24, 2014In Global Rubber Market News0


By Clyde Russell
LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 24 (Reuters) – Some tentative signs are emerging that the worst may be behind for natural rubber prices in Asia.
Benchmark Tokyo rubber futures slumped to 196.7 yen ($1.92) a kilogram earlier this week, the lowest since September 2009, before recovering to 204 yen in Thursday trade.
Tokyo rubber futures are down almost 26 percent so far this year and a massive 61 percent below the post-2008 recession peak hit in February 2011.
The decline has come amid softer global demand for tyres – which account for about 60 percent of rubber consumption – high levels of inventories and failed attempts by major producers to limit supplies.
However, there are some indications, both technical and fundamental, that rubber prices may be close to the bottom.
In Asia, part of the problem has been high inventories, particularly in top importer China. Whenever prices have started to increase, Chinese buyers have been able to tap those inventories instead of buying from overseas suppliers.
Stocks at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange SNR-TOTAL-DW reached 207,658 tonnes in February, the highest in almost a decade.
Since then they have been dropping, falling to 170,000 tonnes in the week to April 18.
Inventories at Japanese ports also fell in the week to March 31, the first decline since October.
While inventories remain at high levels by historical standards, the declines show that the overhang of supply may be starting to clear.
Supply wi also drop as the major producers of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia enter the dry season, which limits the amount of tapping farmers can undertake.
Thailand, the world’s top rubber producer, is also suffering from drought, which the government believes will cut output of agricultural commodities such as rubber, rice and sugar.
The El Nino weather phenomenon, a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, is expected to hit later this year as well, and it typically brings drier conditions to Southeast Asia and Australia.
The chances of an El Nino event in 2014 exceed 70 percent, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on April 8, and the U.N. World Meteorological Organization said on April 15 that a majority of models forecast the return of El Nino.
The prospect of lower natural rubber supply may at the same time run into increasing demand, with auto sales globally posting gains.
Chinese vehicle sales increased 9.2 percent in the first quarter of 2014 and are expected by the manufacturers’ association to rise 8-10 percent for the whole year.
U.S. automobile sales rose 5.7 percent in March from a year earlier, almost three time the increase expected by analysts. March auto sales in Britain jumped 17.7 percent and in Germany by 5 percent.
The better prospects are starting to be reflected in the Tokyo futures curve <0#JRU:>, with a shift to mild contango from fairly steep backwardation in recent weeks.
The six-month contract is currently at a premium of 1.8 percent to the front-month, a turnaround from a month ago, when it was at a discount of 3.3 percent and three months ago when the discount was 2.6 percent.
The balance of risks appears to be shifting in the rubber market, especially if Chinese inventories continue to decline, El Nino cuts output and global vehicle sales maintain momentum. (Editing by Tom Hogue)
-Reuters

Price increases for 2014 - i hope so but i doubt it.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Price increases for 2014 - i hope so but i doubt it.

Yeah Guzzi,although I am not a rubber farmer or farmer of anything else come to think of it , but if any luck comes your way, people like Jim and you certainly deserve it

Originally Posted by jamescollister

You Are Here: Home » Global Rubber Market News » Worst May Be Over For Asian Natural Rubber Prices
Worst may be over for Asian natural rubber prices
Posted Date : April 24, 2014In Global Rubber Market News0


By Clyde Russell
LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 24 (Reuters) – Some tentative signs are emerging that the worst may be behind for natural rubber prices in Asia.
Benchmark Tokyo rubber futures slumped to 196.7 yen ($1.92) a kilogram earlier this week, the lowest since September 2009, before recovering to 204 yen in Thursday trade.
Tokyo rubber futures are down almost 26 percent so far this year and a massive 61 percent below the post-2008 recession peak hit in February 2011.
The decline has come amid softer global demand for tyres – which account for about 60 percent of rubber consumption – high levels of inventories and failed attempts by major producers to limit supplies.
However, there are some indications, both technical and fundamental, that rubber prices may be close to the bottom.
In Asia, part of the problem has been high inventories, particularly in top importer China. Whenever prices have started to increase, Chinese buyers have been able to tap those inventories instead of buying from overseas suppliers.
Stocks at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange SNR-TOTAL-DW reached 207,658 tonnes in February, the highest in almost a decade.
Since then they have been dropping, falling to 170,000 tonnes in the week to April 18.
Inventories at Japanese ports also fell in the week to March 31, the first decline since October.
While inventories remain at high levels by historical standards, the declines show that the overhang of supply may be starting to clear.
Supply wi also drop as the major producers of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia enter the dry season, which limits the amount of tapping farmers can undertake.
Thailand, the world’s top rubber producer, is also suffering from drought, which the government believes will cut output of agricultural commodities such as rubber, rice and sugar.
The El Nino weather phenomenon, a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, is expected to hit later this year as well, and it typically brings drier conditions to Southeast Asia and Australia.
The chances of an El Nino event in 2014 exceed 70 percent, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on April 8, and the U.N. World Meteorological Organization said on April 15 that a majority of models forecast the return of El Nino.
The prospect of lower natural rubber supply may at the same time run into increasing demand, with auto sales globally posting gains.
Chinese vehicle sales increased 9.2 percent in the first quarter of 2014 and are expected by the manufacturers’ association to rise 8-10 percent for the whole year.
U.S. automobile sales rose 5.7 percent in March from a year earlier, almost three time the increase expected by analysts. March auto sales in Britain jumped 17.7 percent and in Germany by 5 percent.
The better prospects are starting to be reflected in the Tokyo futures curve <0#JRU:>, with a shift to mild contango from fairly steep backwardation in recent weeks.
The six-month contract is currently at a premium of 1.8 percent to the front-month, a turnaround from a month ago, when it was at a discount of 3.3 percent and three months ago when the discount was 2.6 percent.
The balance of risks appears to be shifting in the rubber market, especially if Chinese inventories continue to decline, El Nino cuts output and global vehicle sales maintain momentum. (Editing by Tom Hogue)
-Reuters

Surprised there is no mention of a surge in oil prices due to demand from global recovery. That could be another good driver for the rubber price.

Jim, did you understand this snippet?

The better prospects are starting to be reflected in the Tokyo futures curve <0#JRU:>, with a shift to mild contango from fairly steep backwardation in recent weeks.

Can google translate do Jap market speak?

"backwardisation"..got that right! ....21bt gate price for cup..bottomed out my arse!!....
Worst in 10 years.....!!!

Fkin ridiculous..maybe time to bring forward plans for cutting and selling the rubber wood and converting to bananas,other fruit trees, cashews etc maybe just a big lake for pla?.....sigh!!

BIL just cut and sold 20 of their 50 rai. After the subsidy of course.

Originally Posted by crepitas

Fkin ridiculous..maybe time to bring forward plans for cutting and selling the rubber wood and converting to bananas,other fruit trees, cashews etc maybe just a big lake for pla?.....sigh!!

Whole worlds hurting, but things have to pick up sometime, just the nature of the boom and bust system.

We lived last year and are tapping again now, end of tapping season will tell, but just finished planting 7 or 8 rai of cassava. Will harvest next rubber down time, hopefully enough to get us through another year and keep me in beer.

Storm coming, maybe cool the place down some, been too hot, rubber flows more when it's cool and my cassava will shoot up. Jim

Originally Posted by chassamui

BIL just cut and sold 20 of their 50 rai. After the subsidy of course.

How old were the trees, and what did he get per rai for the lumber please?

Originally Posted by crepitas

"backwardisation"..got that right! ....21bt gate price for cup..bottomed out my arse!!....
Worst in 10 years.....!!!

Jesus wept.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Just a short post, got 40,000 Baht rubber subsidy yesterday, not sure how it was worked out, but it' in the bank.
There will be beer, and a 51 inch TV. Jim

Have to retract the above statement, in the words of the Warden in cool hand Luke. What we have here, is a failure to communicate.

Said to the wife today, lets go and see the Agro people, as to why 40,000 Baht and not more, she looks at me strange and says, we got more, but you promised me a Baht of gold, if we got the money.

All the kick backs are if we get money for more than the family allowance, ergo bank accounts in the BILs wives names.

No wonder I have no hair left, need to know and I don't need to know. Jim

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

How old were the trees, and what did he get per rai for the lumber please?

Trees were near the end, around 35. Will ask about the price but he has been on the piss a lot since.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Just a short post, got 40,000 Baht rubber subsidy yesterday, not sure how it was worked out, but it' in the bank.
There will be beer, and a 51 inch TV. Jim

Have to retract the above statement, in the words of the Warden in cool hand Luke. What we have here, is a failure to communicate.

Said to the wife today, lets go and see the Agro people, as to why 40,000 Baht and not more, she looks at me strange and says, we got more, but you promised me a Baht of gold, if we got the money.

All the kick backs are if we get money for more than the family allowance, ergo bank accounts in the BILs wives names.

No wonder I have no hair left, need to know and I don't need to know. Jim

..thanks for that ..almost in tears here....never a dull moment...I get the same thing every frickin day!
"why did you not tell me"..
"I tell you already yesterday day before... you not listen"
"sigh.....glug glug,puff pufff"
"you finish your beer already?...you want I go buy more?"..gotta love 'em!

Originally Posted by poorfalang

would anyone know if there is someone somewhere that could be interested in buying some 750 trees, fire kill them,
how big are they? vary,10-12 years
To be used for furniture 2x4 4x4 and that kind of timber there would be plenty.
anything, any link, would be useful
thanks

pf get someone to ask on here in Thai, talking rubber section.

::: THE THAI RUBBER ASSOCIATION

It appears to be going from bad to worse for you guys out there ,if they sell the 220,000 tonnes of rubber on the cheap ,surely this could well depress prices even further ,Rubber farmers vow city rally | Bangkok Post: news

Originally Posted by piwanoi

It appears to be going from bad to worse for you guys out there ,if they sell the 220,000 tonnes of rubber on the cheap ,surely this could well depress prices even further ,Rubber farmers vow city rally | Bangkok Post: news

Not looking good at all, lost 2 new tappers Friday, better money else where.

Going to have to think hard on the fertilizer front, that's about 200,000 Baht a year, drop in out put may be more cost effective at these prices. That's if I have any tappers left.

Labor costs must be killing the Malaysians, higher wages there, some Chinese buyers have defaulted on payments [futures market] and nothing the Thai government can do.

Will survive the season, but belt tightening and cutting living costs will be on the cards. Bright side, will still be better off than on the dole in OZ. Jim