Thread: Baht to Dollar: The Dollar index

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

https://teakdoor.com/us-domestic-issu...tml#post703589 (A note of caution for those with deposits in US Banks)

that's not your predictions or even real predictions for that matter, just copy/paste from another website, the Market Oracle

Evidence of the US Banking System Teetering on the Brink of Collapse :: The Market Oracle

Your prediction in your post was: Bad, Bad, Bad

what kind of prediction is that ?

^As reading always seems to be a challenge for you, I will guide you (yet again).

The relevant points in the article are:

(2), (5), (6), (7), (13) and (15).

BTW, putting a smilie in your posts does not disguise your lack of knowledge, it actually is an indictor of it.

^ what lack of knowledge ? I think you have proved extensively in your different threads you knew nothing about FX, oil, and other financial matters, despite claiming to be in the industry for the last 20 years, all you can do is copy/paste things you barely understand

you couldn't even get the demand and supply theory right, referring of course to your jewel of infinite elasticity of oil demand pushing prices even further, confusing quantities with growth rates etc... I mean how more clueless could you be ?

Originally Posted by Butterfly

^ what lack of knowledge ? I think you have proved extensively in your different threads you knew nothing about FX, oil, and other financial matters, despite claiming to be in the industry for the last 20 years, all you can do is copy/paste things you barely understand

Total nonsense (again). Have you read the points in the article that I suggested? No, stuck on a word such as 'The' I guess.

The point actually being made was that I posted the article 4-weeks ago warning of exactly what you reported on 2-days ago. So, yes, you were repeating old news.

my guess - on the bank to be on the brink - would be Lehman

maybe William, maybe

at least you are mentioning a bank, not some other type of financial institution

The mystery over what was going on with the dollar the first week in August was solved by James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, who wrote on August 7:

"[T]he banking problems in the United States continue to mount, while the federal government’s deficit continues to soar out of control. . . . So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here’s the proof.

"When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.

"On July 16, 2008 . . . , the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. . . . So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others."2

Full story here:

Wag the Dog: How to Conceal Massive Economic Collapse

did I see 34.9?

^I would have doubted it:

(From Bank of Thailand)

Foreign Exchange Rates as of 21 August 2008

Weighted-average Interbank Exchange Rate = 34.026 Baht/US Dollar

your right my mistake.
I need glasses!!!!!!!!!!!!

^wait till the end of next week.

the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. .

that is an increase, yes, but only of $52 billion ( a 2.5% increase). I don't think it makes sense to extrapolate to an annual increase, as it was a short term influx reacting to whatever

so no proof yet of intervention

Originally Posted by DrAndy

so no proof yet of intervention

There's lots actually (no, I can't). I was talking to an ex-FTSE chappie on Tuesday and what he said is pretty much the same as BKKA. Not that I understood most of it, mind.

^^Not proof, but a strong indicator. Especially when the US trade deficit is narrowing, due to recession curbing domestic demand.

The next few weeks will be interesting me thinks.

fair enough...wait and see

I like a stronger dollar anyway

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- A failure of U.S. mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be a catastrophe for the global financial system, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China's central bank.

``If the U.S. government allows Fannie and Freddie to fail and international investors are not compensated adequately, the consequences will be catastrophic,'' Yu said in e-mailed answers to questions yesterday. ``If it is not the end of the world, it is the end of the current international financial system.''

Freddie and Fannie shares touched 20-year lows yesterday on speculation that a government bailout will leave the stocks worthless. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson won approval from the U.S. Congress last month to pump unlimited amounts of capital into the companies in an emergency.

China's $376 billion of long-term U.S. agency debt is mostly in Fannie and Freddie assets, according to James McCormack, head of Asian sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings Ltd. in Hong Kong. The Chinese government probably holds the bulk of that amount, according to McCormack.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China yesterday reported a $2.7 billion holding. Bank of China Ltd. may have $20 billion, according to CLSA Ltd., the Hong Kong-based investment banking arm of France's Credit Agricole SA. CLSA puts the exposure of the six biggest Chinese banks at $30 billion.

`Beyond Imagination'

``The seriousness of such failures could be beyond the stretch of people's imagination,'' said Yu, a professor at the Institute of World Economics & Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. He didn't explain why he held that view.

China's government hasn't commented on Fannie and Freddie.

Yu is ``influential'' among government officials and investors and has discussed economic issues with Premier Wen Jiabao this year, said Shen Minggao, a former Citigroup Inc. economist in Beijing, now an economist at business magazine Caijing.

Investor confidence in Fannie and Freddie has dwindled on speculation that government intervention is inevitable. Washington-based Fannie has fallen 88 percent this year, while Freddie of McLean, Virginia, has slumped 91 percent.

Paulson got the power to make purchases of the two companies' debt or equity in legislation enacted July 30 that was aimed at shoring up confidence in the businesses. He has said the Treasury doesn't expect to use that authority.

The two companies combined account for more than half of the $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market.

From:

Bloomberg.com: Asia

I have continually warned about the risk of systemic collapse of the World financial system this autumn. As the moment is close, I have protected myself, others have contingency plans, what are yours?

^^Oh, Dr Andy, I should enjoy the 'stronger dollar' as long as it lasts...

BK... What are your contingency plans.

I plan to retire in 4 - 5 years to land I own (OK, the wife owns) in Nong Khai. My retirement, Social Security (what that thieving bast..d Reagan left me), real estate and savings are in US $. No stocks. Any information welcome.

^Your real estate in US is foked. SS is foked if you cannot transfer funds out of USD. USD denominated savings should be transferred to the currency you plan to retire in OR a hedge currency.

I am sorry to be brief, but you should seek paid-for financial advice.

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

^^Oh, Dr Andy, I should enjoy the 'stronger dollar' as long as it lasts...

Likely be still strong when we are all buried.

^So you haven't read the prior posts. No change there then.

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

I am sorry to be brief, but you should seek paid-for financial advice.

not from you I hope, as you have no idea what you are talking about

Jesus, how old were you in 1997 ? I bet you were also forecasting the end of Asia then,

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

^So you haven't read the prior posts. No change there then.

It is possible that he had read them and disagreed with the doom forecasts

I tend to think that the dollar will remain strong, and get stronger

I may be wrong, you and I do not know anything about the future

^No, Brit has just been issuing the same on-liners, with no explanation, forcasting an increase of the USD (even when it was 44 to the THB - then he forecast 50...) for years, on TV before and now here. It is just irritating that he doesn't read up un the subject, does'nt offer anything to the topic, just states the same thing over and over again.

Well it is moving in that direction, and I stand by my predictions. By the way my opinion is no more valid than the supposed financial experts. (including yourself which you are hardly an expert)