Thread: Will the bubble explode? Housing/condo market bkk - opinion

Originally Posted by reinvented

could be wrong though

Think you are spot on.

Allow for currency risk if you ever think of selling/renting your condo.

As for bubbles they come and go I'm sure I felt one recently.

Compared to other assets at least you can live it.

Speaking of currency.

The baht took a big hit after the bombing, from about 37 to 42 to the Euro.

1/2 million baht on a 100k Euro transfer.


What do people reckon about the bahtski and the big event that cannot be hinted at? Gonna dive massively or take it in it's stride?

Well here's what my banker /wanker friend told me over drinks:
Many of the big Thaico's with overseas exposure are having trouble servicing their USD denominated loans with components of THB income, given the slide of the Baht.
The double whammy could happen when [not if] USD interest rates rise....
Caution, could have been the drink, make of that what you will...

Not sure what relevance exchange rates have to the Thai housing market, most houses, condos are bought by Thais.
Bit like saying the Australian house market is in free fall, everything has dropped 30% against the US $.

Originally Posted by Luigi

Gonna dive massively or take it in it's stride?

I imagine thai production will take a dive

Originally Posted by juehoe

I would invest outside of Bangkok, because Bangkok is sinking and will have big problems with flooding.

The Bangkok middle class is therefor looking for a second and future home outside of Bangkok.

So do you think Bangkok will sink before you die or after. ?

Anyone with half a brain only buys real-estate in this this shit pit if they are not concerned about making a Capital gain.

If they do eventually sell up and make some money well that is good but if they don't, tough shit.

Just rent if you are really concerned and Invest your money in a real country.

Originally Posted by rickschoppers

I agree Cha Am and Hua Hin are better than average places to buy condos, even though they do not have all the bells and whistles.

Many times I have thought about buying a condo as a vacation getaway, but with the low hotel rates and not wanting to be tied to any one location, I have never pulled the trigger.

Exactly why I do not buy here, rents are so cheap there is simply no need to.

Plus the freedom to pick ones holiday spot is another good reason.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Bit like saying the Australian house market is in free fall, everything has dropped 30% against the US $.

Yes it sure has,

The ones that are crying a river and are in the shit are the people who bought investment property's with a loan from the Bank.

All the rage years ago and some nice money to be made with houses peaking in price, exactly the opposite now.

Prices of houses going backwards and the double whammy is rents have followed in suit.

Hard to get a Tenant these days.

I own my Gaff in Perth so now worries whatso ever, got my good buddy paying me.

Reduced price of course.

Still getting good coin.

Originally Posted by Norton

The bubble will pop. They always do. Then they slowly come back and burst again. Don't worry about it unless you are buying for speculation.

Of course mate, anyone who is ten years old will argue against that.

The wheel turns and the cycle begins again.

The smart money is to be on the up cycle and not the down.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Not sure what relevance exchange rates have to the Thai housing market, most houses, condos are bought by Thais.
Bit like saying the Australian house market is in free fall, everything has dropped 30% against the US $.

Most big BKK developers = big Thaicos with overseas USD debt exposure. Seems fairly simple to deduce any probable downside.

Tangential thought: Bubbles - was a good bar in Mabini in its day. One that popped both jointly and severally.

Originally Posted by terry57

Exactly why I do not buy here, rents are so cheap there is simply no need to.

Other aspect is; without being able to predict the future, political policy changes, military coups - conflicts or wars, economic collapse, natural disasters and weather calamities, floods and fires, etc., etc...

Should things go south (especially as a foreigner) you may well have to abandon any properties you own, with little or no recourse in recouping your losses. Funding a foreign legal battle can be a most costly proposition. You need to exercise extreme care in investing any monies in a foreign country and only invest "mad" money you can live without.

as terry provides "rents are so cheap", its kinda hard to find a pro side to actually owning a property.

It's not rocket science.
If you can buy a property that is cheaper than the going rate on location vs size you make money.

That's what I do anyway.

^^

That said,

I would buy my Condo on Silom in a heart beat.

It's my base when in Asia and I can't see myself moving from here. Have Zero intention of going Norf or out to some Moo Ban.

The thing is, at 12 K a month it's a no Brainer, just pay the pissy little rent.

Someone is getting desperate for a Tenant and advertised theirs at 10,500 per month.

Renters market in Bangkok same as Perth at the moment.

In Fact, in Perth now Renters are demanding big rent reductions when their lease is up. The owner usually complies simply because to lose a tenant costs big money to get a new one, if in fact one can one.

Terry you have the right idea and it is exactly what I would be doing, if I were single. With only a slight variation of moving every year or so to experience more of the country and its beautiful bountys. You may say one can do that by travelling around and staying in hotels, but that does not give you the full picture. You have to live in an area at least a year to get the full flavor.

Once I had lived in every area I wanted, I would then pick a home base to put down some deeper roots. At least that was my plan over 10 years ago before I got hooked up to a decent woman. Funny how those things happen.

Terry, at least you have managed to stay single which gives you much more flexability.

^

Well, I can assure you of one thing mate.

If I had rolled over and got married like some of my mad mates back home I would be still be working and slaving away in Perth.

Throw in the 40% divorce rate and many of these guys are simply fuked financially.

Yes,

Give me the Bangkok Pollution, my great little Hand Bag, my massive Silom Condo and financial freedom and I'm one happy mother fucker.

Off on a nice road trip next week traveling the Mae Hong Song loop.

That's fooking living mate.

Originally Posted by rickschoppers

Terry you have the right idea and it is exactly what I would be doing, if I were single. With only a slight variation of moving every year or so to experience more of the country and its beautiful bountys. You may say one can do that by travelling around and staying in hotels, but that does not give you the full picture. You have to live in an area at least a year to get the full flavor.

Once I had lived in every area I wanted, I would then pick a home base to put down some deeper roots. At least that was my plan over 10 years ago before I got hooked up to a decent woman. Funny how those things happen.

Terry, at least you have managed to stay single which gives you much more flexability.

such true words

Well, from what i see buying luxury or super luxury could be a good warranty also against the bubble.
Super luxury actually as a niche will be able to provide return at least for a couple of year up to know

If one has the spare cash sitting in his pocket and wants to unload some, buying a Condo in Thailand ain't a bad idea.

The value is outstanding compared to the real world.

Just lock the fooker up and come back when one wants.

I may buy one in Chiangmai.

Plenty of cheapies about for 600 - 700 K.

Do it up and have another crash Pad.

Love Thailand.

Originally Posted by terry57

^

Well, I can assure you of one thing mate.

If I had rolled over and got married like some of my mad mates back home I would be still be working and slaving away in Perth.

Throw in the 40% divorce rate and many of these guys are simply fuked financially.

Yes,

Give me the Bangkok Pollution, my great little Hand Bag, my massive Silom Condo and financial freedom and I'm one happy mother fucker.

Off on a nice road trip next week traveling the Mae Hong Song loop.

That's fooking living mate.

40% with 50% could explain the % ripping on you for having such a massive crash pad.

5% of nothing then.

Do a picture thread then for the less traveled. Looking forward to another good one as I sit stuck on the job.

Yeah, Terry. Looking forward to another of your great trip threads, loved the last one

Nige, I think one of the important things is not to invest in business ventures when the country's future is so uncertain. Too many parameters in Thailand to think a business can be an instant success. I thought many years about starting a business in Thailand, but have now given up on the idea. It takes a lot of connections, a lot of money and a Chinese mentality, none of which I have.

Another important thing is to not rely on any one business for your income. Putting all your eggs in one basket, as they say. You need to have a solid base of reliable income coming from somewhere before thinking about starting a business in Thailand. If you start your business to support you life in Thailand, you are pretty well fooked.

There are a few success stories, but tens more failures. Buying a condo is a sizable investment and should only be done if one intends to live in it, or use it as a base of operation. There have been many good comments from several long time Thailand residents here. Listen closely to what they have to say, because if you don't, you will find youself slithering back to your home country without a pot to piss in.

Originally Posted by nigelandjan

Add into that the fact I have 2 good mates who are absolutely fooked here now , not only have they seen their investments go down in value and very difficult to sell , they cannot now return to the UK with their wives after realising after 10 years Thailand is not quite what they thought it was gonna be, its a sad state to get in when you reach the latter years of your life.

Of course this won't work out for everyone this way , some will be happy however

Sounds like a case of not giving ones self an escape route.

Tough shit that Nigel, the smart ones amoungst us realize nothing last forever.

Woman come and go, friends fall by the way side, Finances can be gone, one gets cancer.

Fuk all that shit, just get on with it.

If one Sells all his shit up at home, comes to Thailand with no bridge back and then ones life goes tits up here ones fuked huh.

Way it is, they made their choice right at the get go.

Suppose if they were cashed up they would never go back to that shit hole Blighty

So many Dodgers here in Thailand it's like a fooking Pomgolian refugee camp.