Quick! The exchange rates gone up!

**robuzo** · 27-01-2009, 07:12 PM

Originally Posted by Loy Toy

Originally Posted by Texpat

We tend to forget that Thailand is a blip on the screen. A very small blip. The world really isn't paying Thailand much attention

I tend to dissagree with you there Tex.

Thailand has huge amounts of foreign investment here (and second to China in this part of the world)

That's true, but I think Krugman was right when he argued as he did in questioning the Asian "economic miracle" in the early '90's that only total factor productivity, not capital investment, creates long-term prosperity. A capital investment-based economy leads to house-of-cards scenarios, I would think. Exports and tourism are dropping fast now- when is the other shoe, as it were, going to drop?

**robuzo** · 27-01-2009, 07:14 PM

Originally Posted by Bluecat

The Thai baht always stays strong when the yen is.
If no sharp downturn of the yen, we won't get much downside for the baht.

Do you have any comparison charts handy for that? I'm curious what that notion is based on, would be interesting if true. The yen has got a lot stronger lately while the baht has weakened somewhat against the USD and significantly against the yen.

**Bluecat** · 27-01-2009, 07:45 PM

I guess the reason is the huge number of Japanese companies manufacturing in Thailand and exporting from Thailand.
Not sure how they do it but well, the Thai economy is probably smaller than Toyota turnover...
All Asian currencies weakened significantly against the US$ in the past few months, except the yen, that got stronger, and the baht that did not move much.
How many baht do you get today for one pound, or one euro, or one Won, or one M$, or one Rupiah.... compared to a few months back?

**robuzo** · 27-01-2009, 07:52 PM

Originally Posted by Bluecat

I guess the reason is the huge number of Japanese companies manufacturing in Thailand and exporting from Thailand.
Not sure how they do it but well, the Thai economy is probably smaller than Toyota turnover...
All Asian currencies weakened significantly against the US$ in the past few months, except the yen, that got stronger, and the baht that did not move much.
How many baht do you get today for one pound, or one euro, or one Won, or one M$, or one Rupiah.... compared to a few months back?

The currencies with low carry rates got stronger, like the dollar and especially the yen. That's why the pound got clobbered. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some sort of collusion between the Bank of Japan and the BOT, but the yen's strength against the baht is probably just indicative of its own overall strength. The strong yen is generally bad for manufacturers in Japan, but it is good for those manufacturing here. Nevertheless, they are still closing plants apace.

**nevets** · 27-01-2009, 08:09 PM

I don't think the pound is doing well against other currencys ,its just shit because of the British economy.

**Texpat** · 27-01-2009, 08:26 PM

I hope the baht tanks. I hope you're right, Spin.

**Rattanaburi** · 28-01-2009, 01:00 PM

For some reason I just don't see all the movement peopel are talking about. Everyone is hurting worldwide it seems though. Most tourist money coming into Thailand comes from the old geezers who live or visit here. They might leave if they don't get a good deal. On the other hand most of those in retirement wouldn't have much of a life back in the states if they are worrying about small movements in exchange rates. Poorer here - poor there.

**Spin** · 28-01-2009, 04:15 PM

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Then there are meaningless, don't mean shit really, it's an estimate. The real drop on the full year might not be as bad, but it won't be good for sure. Great for headlines, hardly substance for deeper analysis.

The real numbers for Thailand 2008 are not available until June!
I believe China is in recession right now. They quote year on year numbers for their growth reports. Certainly they had a hard landing in the fouth quarter for sure. One only has to look an electricity ouput chart for q4 China to see what happened.

**Boon Mee** · 28-01-2009, 04:31 PM

Originally Posted by Texpat

My opinion is that nobody outside of this region really cares that much.

Got that right. Too worried about their ownselves to give a shit about some little cracker country - "where is it now? Over by Viet Nam wern't it"?

Heh...they just keep partying like it's 1999 in Brazil - no downturn here.

**plorf** · 29-01-2009, 02:28 PM

I just want Thailand to get much cheaper again, don't care how.

Thread: Quick! The exchange rates gone up!

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