Thread: Dow drops 508 points, SET to test 500 barrier

Originally Posted by keda

IF anyone's looking at SET, check out GSTEEL - EPS .36, current price .30 (what did NSM cost??), after tanking from 1.30...looks like someone's been shaking the tree too much.

Even allowing for the CDS factor it's worth a heap more than that...anyway, mouth and trousers...I dipped the toe in at .32 and then topped up at .30, so am in the red as of this morning, but when it returns to .47-.48 that's my immigration deposit + exes covered for next year...fok it, someone's taking the piss.

G Steel EPS are mostly fake , they wrote a huge amount of "negative goodwill reversal" comparing book value of NSM shares to the price they paid. Yet if they had taken the quoted price of GJS (new NSM name) they should have booked a huge loss instead.
My advice is to stay away from this one, it's too fishy.

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Well Butterfly "I invested massively when the SET was at 397" had another bad day:

again not invested in the Index

^But your stocks are in the index, no?

Oh, yes - here it is:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

I have been buying massively into the SET recently,

The SET as Stock Exchange of Thailand, not the SET Index

but you wouldn't know the difference, troll

Originally Posted by Gaudente

they wrote a huge amount of "negative goodwill reversal" comparing book value of NSM shares to the price they paid

that's actual good news, impairment of goodwill is usually how it is done, no doubt it will impact their future earnings, but at least it will be off the book and reflect more accurately the reality,

wouldn't buy that one now, despite its potential, and wait the next quarter for improved earnings ex-impairment

Originally Posted by Butterfly

wouldn't buy that one now, despite its potential

Does anyone know of a company producing yellow or red shirts? Think has potential.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by Gaudente

they wrote a huge amount of "negative goodwill reversal" comparing book value of NSM shares to the price they paid

that's actual good news, impairment of goodwill is usually how it is done, no doubt it will impact their future earnings, but at least it will be off the book and reflect more accurately the reality,

wouldn't buy that one now, despite its potential, and wait the next quarter for improved earnings ex-impairment

It was not an impairment, it was a revaluation !
They called it "excess of interest in the net assets value of subsidiary that over purchase cost" : 3,386,259,000 baht out of 4,650,897,000 baht net earnings declared for the nine months period ended 30 Sept 2008

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by Butterfly

wouldn't buy that one now, despite its potential

Does anyone know of a company producing yellow or red shirts? Think has potential.

no textile company has any potential wherever.

Originally Posted by Gaudente

They called it "excess of interest in the net assets value of subsidiary that over purchase cost" :

that's basically the definition of impairment, they recognize the goodwill was crap and not recoverable and are adjusting current earnings

would need to read the full story to see what really happened and how management decided to impair that one,

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by Gaudente

They called it "excess of interest in the net assets value of subsidiary that over purchase cost" :

that's basically the definition of impairment, they recognize the goodwill was crap and not recoverable and are adjusting current earnings

would need to read the full story to see what really happened and how management decided to impair that one,

Just go to www.set.or.th and download the file.
I repeat, they booked the 3.386.259.000 baht as revenue
Here's the note 5 of quarterly report explaining that:
5. Change in accounting policy for recording negative goodwill
During the current period, the Company changed its accounting policy for recording negative goodwill in investment in subsidiary in the consolidated financial statements by recognised the excess remaining after reassessment as income in the income statements, in compliance with Accounting Standard No. 43 (Revised 2007) regarding “Business Combinations” under which the acquirer must reassess the identification and measurement of the acquiree’s identifiable assets, liabilities and contingent liabilities and the measurement of the cost of the business combination. If the interest of acquirer in the net fair value of the transaction is higher than cost at the acquisition date, the acquirer must recognise the excess amount after that reassessment in the income statements immediately.
In this regard, the Company has restated the previous period’s consolidated financial statements as though the Company had recognised the excess of the Company’s interest in the net fair value of assets, liabilities and contingent liabilities of the subsidiary over the purchase cost, as income. The effects of the change to the consolidated income statements for the nine-month period ended 30 September 2008 are to increase net income by Baht 3,386.3 million (Baht 0.26 per share) (2007: increase net income by Baht 248.2 million (Baht 0.02 per share)). The cumulative effect of the change in accounting policy has been presented under the heading of “Cumulative effect of the change in accounting policy for negative goodwill” in the consolidated statements of changes in shareholders’ equity.
Such change in accounting policy no effect to the separate financial statements.

^ ok got you, it's a restatement, apparently they bought some company too cheap and need to re-evaluate the impact on the financial statements, basically they need to recognize the discount as income,

not the first time I saw this, some companies get bought out publicly on the cheap so they will "officially" undervalue them and fuck over the investors, only to re-evaluate the deal and declare the discount as income, with of course the cooperation of management in the target company

hum, nice

The SET now down 2.8% since Butterfly's "Massive" buy-in to stand at 386.53...

^Which is why I asked him what he bought, but he hasn't answered....

I think people can draw their own conclusions from the silence.

Originally Posted by Spin

I think Butterfly has pretty much limited his downside and can live with the consequences.
Also, its quite possible that his stocks are unchanged or even up. Just because the index is down it does'nt mean his positions are. Maybe he bought protection with put options?
You really dont know, and I really dont know, although I'm interested to know exactly what he bought and how many.

I have a very low beta, which means when the markets go up 100%, I might only be up 30%, likewise for the downside, I am limited. The relationship is not as linear and the downside is actually lower, which is good, in particular in this market. There are quite a few published source to do that, but most investors are looking at the maximum return, not risk. I am still leading the market by 50% for the year even though I am flat !!! my portfolio was not always in low beta though,

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Which is why I asked him what he bought, but he hasn't answered....

no, you didn't, you just assumed I was buying the SET index, troll

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Which is why I asked him what he bought, but he hasn't answered....

no, you didn't, you just assumed I was buying the SET index, troll

Yes I did - and I note you still haven't answered the question...

A good reminder of how fcuked up the markets really are is when the Dow drops 700 points in a day and the headlines read "Dow plunges most since October"

^And as significant was the fact there were no headlines, more like a footnote....

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by baldrick

are they telling the truth ? I would be looking a lot closer at them than just the press releases

now they do, not always the case before. They are following international standard reporting mostly. And they are usually audited by big multi-national audit company, I think 1997 has taught a nice lesson. The SET is super serious about this, no joking this time. That doesn't mean it doesn't stop a few from manipulating shares, or insider trading but at least the reported books are in order. Keep in mind that kind of earnings manipulation also happened more frequently in the US.

Now you can question international reporting standard, but at least they are the same for everyone.

There were a specific instance in 2003, N-PARK, where the company "played" with the books and the shares, but they got nailed badly by the SET. The CEO was sponsoring Thaksin back then, it was mostly a political financing thing. The Stock was a total disaster. It was a profitable company that was used as a financing front to buy a financial minister position. Stock went 300% in less than a year, and went down 99% afterward

So then Butterfly, do you still feel so confidence in the published figures of constituent companies?

Hope this wasn't one of your share tips:

https://teakdoor.com/business-finance...tml#post869469 (Thailand : SECC loses B1.36bn, 476 cars missing)

STOCKS

SECC loses B1.36bn, 476 cars missing
DARANA CHUDASRI
Tuesday December 09, 2008

The embattled luxury auto importer SEC Auto Sales and Services Plc (SECC) estimates that it suffered damage of 1.36 billion baht from an apparent case of internal fraud involving company chairman Sompong Witthayaraksan.

SECC told the Stock Exchange of Thailand yesterday that a preliminary investigation had found 476 cars missing from the company's warehouse.

"Another had cars that have been confiscated from the showroom by Mr Sompong's own creditors," the company said.

SECC estimated initial damages from the case at 1.358 billion baht, or 60% of total company assets as of the end of the third quarter.

$700 Billion Bailout Celebrated With Lavish $800 Billion Executive Party




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SET........434.52...........-12.49

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SET........440.40..........+6.32

The Stock Exchange of Thailand: Your Investment Resource for Thailand's Capital Market