Thread: Financial shock for those holding British Pounds

Boy I love how some guys think. Your losing money and you worry about if they tell you using proper grammer. Just curious will that change your bank account balance?

Originally Posted by Gerbil

Hmmm.... Interesting. I've been holding onto a lot of dollars for the last year as I didnt want to convert them to Baht at a shitty rate. Wonder if I should think about moving them to my UK account......

Thank goodness a real reply to the original quote. It is interesting in a way to see what the rate of exchange was when Stan expat from essex last looked, but I guess most people know this already.

Your reply requires some thought. Yes the pound is due for a fall, but against what? If we know the answer to that then we can shift a few quid around and reap some benefit. I'm not saying I'm rich enough to have loads a' dollars in offshore accounts but understanding helps.

Long term the baht will rise and get more expensive so if your lucky enough to have 800,000 on deposit then try and add to it.

The dollar will rise against everything soon because its been oversold and people seek refuge in the dollar in uncertain times.

The euro will rise a bit because its becoming a replacement , although not yet big style, for the dollar. Meanwhile the german bankers are more concerned about inflation than growth so they will make sure the euro keeps its value.

back to the pound. I dont think they know what they are doing ( growth versus inflation) so get out and buy something else.

In case you think I' a rich sod...I made a bit the other day cos I went to Krungsi bank and bought $400 as overkill on my visa run to Laos. I'm standing at a small profit......it'll buy a girl a drink....and that will lead to.....lifes not so bad!!!

All I care about is the fucking falling Won.

One of the few currencies to keep falling. Even when the dollar was tanking last few months the Won managed to tank lower.

The pounds fall from grace last month was great, but alas people have realised that Korea is fucked again and are pulling out.

^And falling further. Issue at hand for those interested in THB is that for every problem cited for Korea and the Won, Thailand has at least three!

Anyway:

Pictet, Aberdeen Sell Won as Bank of Korea Fights Currency Drop

By Kim Kyoungwha

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Pictet Asset Management Ltd. and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc are betting the Bank of Korea will lose the battle to stem the won's drop, thwarting its attempt to curb the fastest inflation in a decade.

The won slid 7 percent against the dollar in August, the most in a decade, as price increases and a slowing economy prompted bond and stock funds to move money out of the country. Government currency purchases failed to halt the decline and led to a $16.7 billion drop in foreign-exchange reserves in the four months through July to $247.5 billion.

The slump in reserves ``weakens the hand'' of the central bank, said Wee-Ming Ting, head of Asian fixed income in Singapore for Pictet, part of Switzerland's largest privately held bank for the wealthy. ``We are short the won,'' he said, referring to positions that profit from further declines.

The drop surprised strategists, who forecast at the start of the year that the won would appreciate 5 percent to 890 per dollar, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 22 estimates. Instead, the currency slid to 1,088.9 last week, compared with the median fourth-quarter forecast of 1049.

Consumer prices in Asia's fourth-largest economy climbed 5.9 percent in July from a year earlier, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise its benchmark rate from an eight-year high of 5.25 percent. Confidence among consumers in July was the lowest since 2000 and spending by households, saddled with record debt, fell in the second quarter for the first time in four years.

Stock, Bond Sales

International investors sold a record 25 trillion won ($23 billion) more Korean shares than they bought this year, stock exchange data shows, and the benchmark Kospi stock index fell 22 percent.

Net sales of the nation's bonds totaled $4.2 billion in June and July, snapping a two-year run of monthly purchases, according to central bank figures. Benchmark five-year yields climbed 90 basis points, or 0.90 percentage points, in the past four months to 5.86 percent.

Including dollar sales in the forwards market, the Bank of Korea has spent about $43.7 billion supporting the won this year, according to Richard Yetsenga, a strategist in Hong Kong with HSBC Holdings Plc.

``We have been targeting 1,100,'' Yetsenga wrote in an Aug. 28 report. ``Now that we are in striking distance of that target, it is difficult to see what will stop the move there.''

Vice Finance Minister Kim Dong Soo pledged last week to take action to stem the won's depreciation and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts the government will have some success, forecasting an exchange rate of 1,040 in three months.

`One-Way Bet'

The won is ``not a one-way bet,'' said Goohoon Kwon, a Seoul-based economist with Goldman, the world's biggest securities firm. Policy makers could raise rates, helping attract funds seeking higher returns, he said.

Aberdeen Asset, Scotland's largest independent money manager, is betting the Bank of Korea will fail, forecasting the won will be as weak as 1,200 per dollar in a year's time.

``We have been short the won and are generally negative over the next three to six months,'' said Anthony Michael, who oversees the equivalent of $3.7 billion of Asian assets as the firm's regional head of fixed income in Singapore. ``Growth in Korea is going to slow substantially.''

The $970 billion economy expanded 4.8 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the slowest since the first three months of 2007, when it grew 4 percent. The trade balance swung to a deficit in December for the first time in five years.

Overseas Borrowings

An increase in South Korea's overseas borrowings is also driving funds out of the country, said Dwyfor Evans, a strategist with State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong.

Short-term overseas debt, external borrowings that mature in a year, almost tripled to $175.65 billion as of June 30 from $65.9 billion at the end of 2005, official figures show.

The increase was mainly caused by exporters' locking in dollar rates for overseas earnings, Bank of Korea Deputy Governor Rhee Gwang-Ju said in a July interview. This year's decline in Asian currencies doesn't signal a repeat of the financial crisis a decade ago because central banks have more reserves, he said.

``Potential difficulties with rolling over the debt may lead to a sharp drawdown of reserves and pressure on the won,'' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist with CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong, who has the most bearish estimate in the survey. He predicts the won will end the year at 1,200 per dollar.

The £s fall is good and bad, we've got the export market (uk) clicked their heels but for us expats the deal is pretty grim, unless you've got mega baht stashed away.
I've already made the low point of the £ to be about 58-60 baht for comfort, anything over that is just a bonus.
The weak £ will mean less tourists too, which some would say is a pretty good thing, depending on your situation
Nothing is certain yet though so it's just wait and see time

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

^And falling further. Issue at hand for those interested in THB is that for every problem cited for Korea and the Won, Thailand has at least three!

Less than a two months ago they said that the second half of the year would see the Won increase due to exports for the christmas period.

It was also in the Korea Herald last week that September isn't going to be as bad as August for the Won - not sure where they got their information from, but I don't believe it.

It took from 1998-2005 to get back to a decent level. When I was here in 2003 it was 2200 Won to a Pound.

I've seen it in the last year or so go from 1600 up to 2100 and back down to 1880 in the space of days.

Sterling drops to $1.80375 and THB61.88.

Bad day for the Brits in LoS.

Not at all, bit of a corker actually

^Yes, smartypanyts, apart from Brits with a Euro-denominated income...

starting to hurt!!!!!!!

in 1992 it was 32 baht and you got a lot more in pattaya for it then than now

Hope the THB falls fast, because Sterling continues its crash:

USD 1.786
THB 61.58

interesting news for British citizens, maybe they should stop bitching why life is so expensive in Thailand,

BBC NEWS | Business | UK food prices rise 8.3% in 2008

Still going down...

USD 1.7563
THB 60.55

Why can't Thailand hurry up with its crisis?

`Overvalued' Pound to Fall 20% as Darling Despairs (Update1)

By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Bo Nielsen

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Currency traders are starting to take the British government at its word, putting the tumbling pound on course for the worst year since 1992.

The pound is about 20 percent too strong against the dollar, even after falling more than 10 percent this year, according to New York-based International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the world's biggest currency hedge-fund company. Futures traders became more bearish on the U.K. currency than at any time in the past 16 years.

The steepest housing slump in 18 years prompted Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling to tell Britons they face the biggest slowdown since World War II. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth month last week to curb inflation that accelerated to 4.4 percent in July, more than twice the central bank's target. During the two previous times the economy cooled since 1997, the pound fell as much as 19 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Continued here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...O_s&refer=home

The BOT is very busy today lost 25 satang immediatley and it appears to be still gaining strength. Certianly nothing politically or economically supports this

Invest in the french franc or the british gold soveriegn. Thats you best bet.

Originally Posted by Jesus Jones

Invest in the french franc or the british gold soveriegn. Thats you best bet.

The French franc? Jesus wept.

Originally Posted by Jesus Jones

french franc

It doesn't exist does it ?

Since visiting here for 8 years or so, never seen fifties before

59.48

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

I hate being in the UK. At least my BKK flight departs in a couple of weeks.

fuck, I hope you are not on the same flight as me

I will look out for a tedious, boring looking bloke with a plastic laptop case

Originally Posted by Ivor Biggun

Originally Posted by Jesus Jones

french franc

It doesn't exist does it ?

I presume he means the Swiss Franc

but he may be living in the past with that nik

Originally Posted by DrAndy

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

I hate being in the UK. At least my BKK flight departs in a couple of weeks.

fuck, I hope you are not on the same flight as me

I will look out for a tedious, boring looking bloke with a plastic laptop case

I know you are so old all days mingle into one now, but note that my post was on the 14th August, two weeks hence would be the 28th and now we are on the 10th September, so I am happily ensconsed in BKK. No danger meeting me on the flight.

By the way - laptop? That's so 90's. (No - before you start - 1990's not 1890's)

oooh, so cutting

I don't know where this fallacy that I am old came from, Stroller I think originally propagated it

and then all the little followers and boring people picked it up and copied it

check your facts before you spout, you know it makes sense

^I checked and you are 68.

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