Is the world heading into recession?

**Butterfly** · 16-02-2009, 09:44 PM

to add to the bad news (or is it maybe good news) I found this regarding Russia,

BBC NEWS | Business | Russian output plummets further

**Muadib** · 16-02-2009, 09:50 PM

20 Million Laid-off Migrant Workers May Send China's Unemployment Rate to 10%

20 Million Laid-off Migrant Workers May Send China's Unemployment Rate to 10%

February 06,2009
by CSC staff, Shanghai

20 million! The number of jobless migrant workers brought by the economic slowdown is even higher than the most pessimistic estimation.

Chen Xiwen, deputy director of the Office of Central Financial Work Leading Group and director ofthe Office of The Central Leading Group on Rural Work, disclosed that, due to the financial crisis, about 20 million out of 130 million migrant workers, had returned home as they became jobless or failed to find jobs thanks to the economic slowdown.

This number is the result of on a sampling survey by the Ministry of Agriculture not long ago. The result shows that 38.5% migrant workers returned home before the Chinese New Year, among whom, 60.4% went back for the holiday, still keeping their jobs in cities which they can return to afterwards; and the rest 39.6% returned home in advance as they had lost their jobs or failed to find jobs in cities. It is thus estimated that about 20 million migrant workers, accounting for 15.3% of the total, returned home jobless.

“This number is far above our expectation,” said a source close to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security to China Business News, as previously the most pessimistic estimation was 15 million. But labor authorities are also investigating about unemployed migrant workers and the final figure may be lower than 20 million.

According to the estimation of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the over supply issue of labor will worsen in 2009, and the government will have to offer jobs to 24 million people, including 13 million new workers, 8 million laid-off workers and 3 million who are waiting for jobs.

According to the source mentioned above, this has become normal in recent years. Urban unemployed population has reached about 9 million these years based on registered unemployment rate, and may rise to as high as 16 million if based on the figures from investigation that haven’t been yet released. “Unemployment rate based on survey is usually 1% higher than the one that based on registration. This year’s unemployment rate from the survey will rise to 10%, a surprising high, if we add the 20 million jobless migrant workers.”

The 20 million unemployed migrant workers will bring unprecedented pressure to China. Although China maintained a two-digit economic growth in recent years, it can only create 8 million to 9 million new jobs annually in most of years. Therefore it will take two to three years to create enough jobs for these workers.

But this source also said the increasing unemployed population would not last long, as a series of measures adopted by both the central government and local governments would bring effects soon. Chen Xiwen said if the global economy rebounded in the first quarter or first half of this year, measures taken by the central government would bring effects, and migrant workers’ employment problem would soon be solved.

On February 1, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance jointly launched a “Special Job Training Plan” to offer vocational training and business training to migrant workers who have returned home.

Wang Dewen, director of Social Security Department of Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said training migrant workers would be an effective way to help them to solve unemployment problem, and delay their entry into the labor market and therefore relieve employment pressure.

For migrant workers, this training will be longer than previous ones. The central government requires local labor authorities, taking into account of the local situation and the characteristics of unemployed workers, to provide three to six-month training to urban unemployed population (including those who are looking for jobs in cities.

**Muadib** · 16-02-2009, 09:54 PM

^ Well, the fat is in the fire so to speak... It does not bode well for the rest of the us when the world's fastest growing economy begins moving in reverse...

Time to buy some gold...

**robuzo** · 17-02-2009, 07:25 AM

Or don't:

Calculated Risk: More on Dubai
[M]any expatriates here talk about Dubai as though it were a con game all along. Lurid rumors spread quickly: the Palm Jumeira, an artificial island that is one of this city's trademark developments, is said to be sinking, and when you turn the faucets in the hotels built atop it, only cockroaches come out.

watterinja · 17-02-2009, 07:52 AM

Is it time for re-name to 'Dubious Dubai'?

**robuzo** · 17-02-2009, 07:55 AM

More on Japan. If ever a country needed to pull its head out of its ass. . .20 years ago we were all expected to fear their unstoppable economic dreadnaught; then they tripped over their little dicks. Now they've done it again.

Bloomberg.com: Economy

By Jason Clenfield Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy, only months ago forecast to be the best performing among the world’s most advanced nations, has become the worst.
Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 12.7 percent last quarter, the Cabinet Office said yesterday. The contraction was the most severe since the 1974 oil crisis and twice as bad as those in Europe or the U.S.

----

Still, like the US, I wouldn't count them out, because Japan retains some core strengths, such as a hardworking, productive workforce, a tradition of craftsmanship and brilliant, innovative problem-solving. What it needs is a systemic shakeup (what the whole world needs, it seems, on both the global and national scale), and in the short to medium term there is going to be a lot of pain.

**robuzo** · 17-02-2009, 07:58 AM

Originally Posted by watterinja

Is it time for re-name to 'Dubious Dubai'?

An appropriate name all along for what is essentially the world's premier money-laundering center. Check out McMafia, a book I've flogged on here before, for some fascinating if nauseating details about Dubai.

**Escapeeeeeee** · 24-02-2009, 06:26 PM

Everyone has underestimated the collapse in Central and Eastern Europe. Germany is facing manufacturing meltdown and the financials facing utter collapse.

Its the main reason for my escape. Whoever started this thread back in the day can't have seen how bad it was going to get!!!

**BarnacleBill** · 24-02-2009, 07:44 PM

^I've just been going over the earliest posts in this thread - and it is interesting to see who prophesied what! There has certainly been a gigantic thump to the world - can anyone see who - ort what - can bring it out of the quagmire?

**BarnacleBill** · 24-02-2009, 07:56 PM

Back on 21.01.2008

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

Too much wealth in the hands of people who are not generating it.
In the west rising house prices and asset values generally have created a large number of wealthy retirees who do not need to work, often from age 50.

With the reduced birthrates we have less people working to provide the goods and services those lucky retirees want.

The macro economy requires more workers and the way this is achieved is through a reduction in the perceived wealth of the retirees so that some are forced back to work. When enough people have been forced to postpone retirement, or come back from early retirement , asset values will level out. There will be a time lag, however, so asset values will fall further than necessary, and then appear to rise fast again. There will be money to be made from another short bull market if you time it early enough.

It's called a market economy. Thatcherites will love it.

Is this still the answer?

**robuzo** · 25-02-2009, 09:41 AM

Originally Posted by Escapeeeeeee

Everyone has underestimated the collapse in Central and Eastern Europe. Germany is facing manufacturing meltdown and the financials facing utter collapse.

Its the main reason for my escape. Whoever started this thread back in the day can't have seen how bad it was going to get!!!

Great report on Eastern Europe on the February 24 "Planet Money" podcast. Eastern Europe owes around $1.5 trillion to Western European banks. Will this force the Europeans to get off their high horse and stop blaming the Americans? Doubt it.

**Jesus Jones** · 25-02-2009, 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by robuzo

Originally Posted by Escapeeeeeee

Everyone has underestimated the collapse in Central and Eastern Europe. Germany is facing manufacturing meltdown and the financials facing utter collapse.

Its the main reason for my escape. Whoever started this thread back in the day can't have seen how bad it was going to get!!!

Great report on Eastern Europe on the February 24 "Planet Money" podcast. Eastern Europe owes around $1.5 trillion to Western European banks. Will this force the Europeans to get off their high horse and stop blaming the Americans? Doubt it.

I don't believe for one minute it's the fault of the Americans. I believe it's the european bankers that have deliberatly caused the problems as they did in the US in 1907.

Wilson adimited he stupidly pushed the Federal reserve act through after being sponsered by the european banking elite. Politicians didn't issue the FR, the bankers did. Yet some people have never heard of the Rothschilds and the like, and still insist on using the term 'conspiricy'. More fool them.

The Federal Reserve Act: This was written by bankers, The Rothschilds, Rockerfellas and Morgans.

“Our great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is privately concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men… Who necessarily, by very reasons of their own limitations, chill and check and destroy genuine economic freedom.

We have come to be one of the worst ruled, and one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world – No government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men”

-Woodrow Wilson-
Wrote in regret to the Federal Reserve Act he pushed through, after being sponsored by these bankers.

Odd isn't it how these families are still involved in the present issues?

**robuzo** · 25-02-2009, 10:24 AM

I think that when it comes to multinational corporations, banks, and investment firms the concept of nationality has been more or less bereft of any real meaning for quite a few years.

**Butterfly** · 25-02-2009, 11:14 AM

and to add to the good news,

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Japan exports drop 45% to new low

**Rural Surin** · 25-02-2009, 11:41 AM

Plenty to eat here.....recession?

**DrAndy** · 25-02-2009, 01:25 PM

yes
...

**HermantheGerman** · 25-02-2009, 02:56 PM

to add to the bad news (or is it maybe good news) I found this regarding U.S.

AIG in talks with U.S. government, sees $60 billion loss: source

By Paritosh Bansal
NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group, rescued twice last year by the U.S. government, is asking for more aid and bracing for a fourth-quarter loss of roughly $60 billion, a source familiar with the matter said.It would be the biggest loss in a quarter in corporate history.
The $60 billion would exceed Time Warner's $54 billion single-quarter loss in 2002 and dwarf the $24.5 billion loss AIG posted in the third quarter, when the government increased its rescue package for the insurer to about $150 billion.
By contrast, two analysts polled by Reuters Estimates have forecast on average a net loss of $5.46 billion.
The latest round of talks with the government include the possibility of additional funds for the insurer and trading debt for equity, another source said on Monday.
The situation is fluid and other options are being discussed, this second source said, adding that it was unclear where the talks would lead.
AIG may look to convert preferred shares held by the government into common stock, Bloomberg reported, citing an unnamed source.
The discussions are going on as U.S. financial authorities try to put out other fires, as well. Citigroup Inc, whose stock has been pounded by fears that the government may seize the bank and wipe out shareholders, is also in talks to give the government a larger stake, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.
CNBC, which first reported AIG's discussions, said the losses to be announced next Monday were due to writedowns on commercial real estate and other assets. It said the insurer's board will meet next Sunday to work out an agreement with the government.
In case they do not reach a deal, AIG's lawyers at Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP were preparing for the possibility of bankruptcy, CNBC said.
But the first source told Reuters that while AIG has retained Weil Gotshal, the insurer has no plans to file for bankruptcy.
"Is it likely that $60 billion more of capital has been destroyed? Or is it likely that they are just accounting for that which already happened?" said Thomas Russo, a partner at Gardner, Russo & Gardner, which manages more than $2 billion. "I suspect it's more of the latter than the former."
AIG said in a statement it had not yet reported results and would provide an update when it does so in the near future.
"We continue to work with the U.S. government to evaluate potential new alternatives for addressing AIG's financial challenges," AIG said.
U.S. Treasury officials declined to comment. Weil could not be reached immediately for comment.
AIG shares closed down 1 cent at 53 cents on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday.
AIG was first rescued in September after bad mortgage bets left it on the verge of collapse. The government stepped in with $85 billion in bailout financing, as the credit crisis peaked with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc filing for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch agreeing to be bought by Bank of America Corp.
The rescue swelled in November as AIG posted its then-largest ever loss, hurt by writedowns on assets linked to subprime mortgages and capital losses. The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury stepped in with even more money to buy mortgage assets that had left AIG deeply in the red, and eased the terms of its loan repayment.
AIG has said it plans to sell all assets except its U.S. property and casualty business, foreign general insurance, and an ownership interest in some foreign life operations, as it looks to raise money to pay back the government.
Although AIG has announced some sales, it is trying to sell assets at a time when buyers are often dealing with their own problems and credit for acquisitions is scarce. The insurer's ongoing troubles are likely making things harder.
"The seller is in a rather perilous position," Russo said. "And buyers typically appreciate the amount of leverage they have."
(Additional reporting by Chris Kaufman and Euan rocha; Editing by Richard Chang, Jeffrey Benkoe, Tim Dobbyn, Gary Hill)

**HermantheGerman** · 25-02-2009, 03:04 PM

Originally Posted by Butterfly

and to add to the good news,

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Japan exports drop 45% to new low

and to add to more good news,

General Motors Corp. plans to release its fourth quarter and 2008 full-year financial results at 7 a.m. on Feb. 26, the Detroit automaker announced Tuesday.

**HermantheGerman** · 27-02-2009, 12:08 AM

RBS posts record loss as UK insures toxic assets

By Myles Neligan and Sumeet Desai
LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Bank of Scotland reported the biggest loss in British history on Thursday and said the government's stake could rise as high as 95 percent after it stumped up billions to insure risky bank assets.
RBS said the Treasury would inject a further 13 billion pounds to help the bank pay for a new scheme that will transfer most of the risk from 325 billion pounds worth of toxic RBS assets and risky loans to the taxpayer.

RBS posts record loss as UK insures toxic assets | U.S. | Reuters

**Loy Toy** · 27-02-2009, 12:15 AM

Mr. Bloomberg said we are so nuff said!

Fcuk I should of brought gold!

**spliff** · 27-02-2009, 07:39 AM

**Butterfly** · 27-02-2009, 08:42 AM

European governments needs to nationalize all those banks, it's the only solution, all of this will be forgotten once they do. They could even nationalize the banks without compensation, that will send a strong message to management and the board for better oversight. Maybe jail a few CEO and CFO for good measure. They are trying to save 20th century Capitalism, but it's dead already.

again we are dealing with paper loss, change the regulations and nationalize those banks instead of costing billions in markets and tax payer money, can't believe how clueless those governments are, no wonder banks could get away with all this for so long, our governments have no clue !!!

**donald36** · 27-02-2009, 08:50 AM

There is not a single glimmer of hope ,but at the times of greatest pessimism is when things start to get better ,its happened before and the small investors all head for the exits and lose a lot of money
All the terrible company results may well be the companies management spring cleaning the accounts since everyone expects bad figures .

watterinja · 27-02-2009, 08:58 AM

Is the Money God on life support?

**Rural Surin** · 27-02-2009, 01:51 PM

Originally Posted by watterinja

Is the Money God on life support?

....it's a racket.

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