Trade war escalation could smash global economy and equities: UBS

**OhOh** · 11-08-2018, 12:06 AM

The last obvious purchase for me was some Levi jeans some 5 years ago, which upon checking were made in Pakistan. Flying any plane supports ameristan, but next to impossible to avoid. A computer and a mobile some years probably earnt ameristani companies licence fees.

**Hugh Cow** · 11-08-2018, 02:51 PM

I shall help support the American economy by purchasing 2 large bottles of duty free Jack on my return to the old country.......Purely as a gesture of solidarity of course.

**Neverna** · 13-08-2018, 03:39 PM

Originally Posted by Klondyke

Just curious what do you buy here from the US... (I assume you do not buy weaponry, do you?)

Mostly food but sometimes clothes and sometimes electronic stuff.

I'm also banning myself from buying Tesla cars, any US made weaponry and red MAGA baseball caps.

**Neo** · 20-08-2018, 03:44 PM

**bsnub** · 20-08-2018, 05:22 PM

^ Aren't you own of those guys who claims party does not matter?

**Switch** · 20-08-2018, 08:12 PM

He’s a socialist. Similar to you but much farther to the left. Almost as radical as Cyrille

**OhOh** · 20-08-2018, 08:25 PM

^^Thanks for the video, it would be amusing if the ramifications wern't so disastrous.

**baldrick** · 20-08-2018, 08:48 PM

who will claim ownership of the impending disaster ?

**Neo** · 20-08-2018, 08:52 PM

Originally Posted by OhOh

^^Thanks for the video, it would be amusing if the ramifications wern't so disastrous.

incredible isn't it that this Peter Navarro guy is Trump's trade advisor

**baldrick** · 20-08-2018, 09:05 PM

^ was that the john oliver last week tonght episode ? I do not have enough data to watch video where I am right now

ok , I got a summary

Partway through John Oliver’s main story on Sunday’s Last Week Tonight, the host showed a bombastically wrong-headed clip from a documentary called Death By China. Filled with ominously hyperbolic narration (Martin Sheen, c’mon guy) and simplistic, ineptly fear-mongering animations (America is stabbed, right in the heartland, by a murder-knife emblazoned with “Made In China”), the documentary is the sort of hyperventilating, fact-averse nonsense the guy you least want to talk to demands you watch right now. Oliver even quotes Scott Tobias’ 2012 A.V. Club review of the film, calling the Death By China, “the documentary equivalent of a raving street-corner derelict.”
Fun stuff. But why devote so much comic vitriol to a little-seen, critically lambasted, fact-challenged piece of bargain-basement economic propaganda? Well—and try to conceal your shock here—the director of that film, and author of best-sellers about China the global economic boogeyman, is one Peter Navarro, currently head of Donald Trump’s Office Of Trade And Manufacturing Policy. Yup. And not only that, as Oliver reveals, but Navarro is also essentially the only person propping up Trump’s ongoing trade war with China, even though literally no other reputable economists in the country view Navarro as anything but a joke. (Asked to provide two economists who back up his hyperbolic take on Chinese-American trade by The New Yorker, Navarro gave two whole names—one who refuted Navarro’s central premise, and the other a blogger without an economics degree who, Oliver shows, has inserted his own online author photo sideways.)

So, we’re fucked on the trade front, too. Especially as Oliver presents evidence of how clearly Donald Trump misunderstands even the most basic concepts (trade deficits, economics, tariffs, math, international trade agreements, facts) upon which he’s waging his trade war. Armed with clips of Trump doing lots of funny voices while claiming “Trade—ugh—I’m gonna do so good,” and promising to tell China “Listen you motherfuckers, I’m gonna tax you 25 percent,” Oliver went on to show how world leaders like Germany’s Angela Merkel and others have patiently tried to dumb down the core concepts of why what Trump’s doing is fundamentally, childishly idiotic—complete with colorful flash cards and props—all to no avail. Picture a mirror image of that scene in Trading Places where the Duke Brothers condescendingly explain commodities trading to Billy Ray Valentine, except here it’s Merkel shooting the camera a “can you believe this shit?” look.

It all brings us back to Navarro, who—and again try to feign surprise—was found by presidential son-in-law and “nothing boy” (as Oliver dubs him) Jared Kushner searching for best-selling economists on Amazon, and who views his job as “to try to provide the underlying analytics that conform [Trump’s] intuition.” As Oliver explains, that is “simply terrifying,” since—in addition to that being how advisors to actual authoritarians work—Donald Trump’s intuition means his tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum will actually wipe out hundreds of thousands more American jobs than they create. Oliver conceded that, even with plenty of sex jokes and funny, insulting nicknames, his report is far too complicated to hold Trump’s attention. So he put together a Death By China-style mini-documentary, complete with gobs of animated blood and a scary voice-guy telling Trump how what he’s doing is the economic equivalent of hurling a razor-edged boomerang, right at dick level.

this aggregation of articles on the navarro bloke does not paint a good image - https://systemunknown.com/light/Peter_Navarro

**OhOh** · 23-08-2018, 11:57 AM

US trade entities express frustration over new tariffs on Chinese goods

(CRI Online) 08:02, August 23, 2018

"US business and trade groups are expressing their frustration over the latest round of proposed tariffs on Chinese goods.
They are voicing their concerns at public hearings in the capital.

The Office of US Trade Representative first proposed a 10% tariff on about 200 billion of Chinese imports in July and later raised that rate to 25%. This week and next Monday a public hearing on the proposal is being held in Washington DC.

Most representatives at the hearing voiced strong opposition against the proposal, saying a tariff hike will result in a heavy burden on American companies, and ultimately rising prices for American consumers.

Bob Margevicius is executive vice President for Bicycle Product Suppliers Association and Specialized Bicycle Components in America.

"The biggest concern is that it impacts virtually all bicycles, in particular it impacts children's bicycles. The majority we import here in the US are children's bikes. Children's bikes are entry points for kids to get involved in cycling. They become immersed and they become part of it. It actually engages them for future usage of bikes and for the future being part of our industry. So we really need them."

Margevicius began his testimony at the hearing by asking the panelists if they still remember how exciting it was for them to get their first bike. When I asked him if adjusting the supply chain will be able to help them evade tariffs, he told me it won't be easy.

"Individual components are produced locally in China, whether through Tianjin, or Kunshan, or in the Shenzhen area. The products themselves need to meet safety requirements. So to transition from one country to another takes a lot of time to build the manufacturing cluster. It's a difficult and complex project for us."
Americans buy about 18 million bikes every year and most of these bikes come from China. Statistics show that if the US government were to impose tariffs on bikes and related products coming from China, the accumulative tariffs rate for American consumers will be as high as 36%. The even bigger concern is that this will cause bike retail stores to close, the bike industry to shrink, and people employed in the industry to lose their jobs.

An argument frequently raised by trade entity representatives at the hearing is that over the years China has developed a high level of craftsmanship and labor quality, which makes it very hard for them to find substitute makers in other countries in a short period of time.

Ross Bishop, once an engineer of major US defense tech company Lockheed Martin and a pilot, is now president of a company that produces specialized luggage for pilots. He said if you pick the right factory in China, the workers can be artists.
"We've worked with factories in Vietnam before. The products weren't as good and they ended up getting more and more expensive. So if you can work with the best force and with the best price, and it happens to be China, and that's what you are going to do."
Bishop also told me that his company was planning to expand its business, but the government's tariffs proposal is forcing them to slow down.
Besides all the frustration and anger from manufacturers in the country, the bigger worry is obviously placed on American households, who many argue will eventually pay for the protectionist trade approach by the government.

Lawyer Francis Sailer said "this is not a tariff that's going to in any way hurt China. It's gonna hurt Tom, Jones, and Bob, Smith, and the guys who have the startup companies that rely on the expertise that's been developed in China. So it's crazy."
The Office of the US Trade Representative said earlier that due to an unforeseen number of entities seeking to present their cases, the length of the hearing had been doubled. It's estimated that over 350 representatives from US companies and trade associations will attend the hearing. Written statements will be received till September 6th and after that the panel at the hearing will deliver a policy recommendation to the US Trade Representative."

US trade entities express frustration over new tariffs on Chinese goods - People's Daily OnlineI am looking forward to the Public Hearing MSM reports, the official report, the government officers statements and the revisions being acted upon by ameristani legislators.

Also any Chinese, European and the rest of the world's responses.

Look over there:

Trade war escalation could smash global economy and equities: UBS-pigsg-jpg

Trade war escalation could smash global economy and equities: UBS-pigsg-jpg

**OhOh** · 23-08-2018, 11:40 PM

PMIs Signal "US Economy Has Cooled" In Q2, Manufacturing "Has Led The Slowdown"

"As US economic 'hard data' has collapsed in recent months, US manufacturing and services industries PMIs 'soft data' have both tumbled, and preliminary August data extended that streak with slower business activity growth reflected the weakest rise in new order volumes since December 2017. US Manufacturing and Services PMIs miss expectations and drop for the 3rd month in a row..

Staffing levels increased at the softest pace for over one year in August.
Based on the 'soft' survey data that PMIs represent, US remains the 'best' among the major economies of the world...

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“The US economy lost a little pace in August, according to the flash PMI, but continued to grow at a solid rate. The PMI is indicative of the economy growing at an annualised rate of roughly 2.5%, down from a 3.0% indicated rate in July.

“Output, new orders and employment growth all moderated, adding to signs that the economy has cooled after strong growth in the second quarter.

"Backlogs of uncompleted work, a key indicator of future output and hiring, meanwhile fell for the first time for over a year, suggesting the slowing trend could persist into the fall.

“Manufacturing has led the slowdown, though the service sector has also come off the boil compared to the second quarter highs.

“Some of the slowdown can be attributed to supply shortages: jobs growth in manufacturing and services is being restricted by a lack of available workers, while factories are also constrained by a lack of raw materials, sometimes blamed on ‘panic-buying’ of safety stocks as well as a lack of transportation to ship goods around.

The punchline: companies can no longer pass thru rising costs:

“However, the survey also found increased cases of companies reporting the need to cut costs, in part reflecting the recent steep rise in raw material prices, often linked to tariffs and shortage-related price hikes."

The silver lining is that inflation, for now, has moderated:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...s-led-slowdown

I'm sure goldilocks has a tweet at the ready for the consequences, which have yet to be shown to him, by his handlers.

**Norton** · 24-08-2018, 10:26 AM

Originally Posted by baldrick

who will claim ownership of the impending disaster ?

Obama, Hillary and her hubby Bill

**baldrick** · 24-08-2018, 10:42 AM

what ? I thought this was all part of the "Q" plan ?

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